Euro/$---GBP/$ Where now?

[hammer]

User,
So you don't think the gbp is goin back up? I figured it would and am preparing for a long. Looks like momentum has slowed and ready for reversal but at the same time could just be pausing for a turnaround. Im not sure so will see where it breaks. What do you think?

 

[User]

Rolling cash bets are for intra day trades. Future contracts held for longer moves. Another thing is predicting these 'Dangerous' markets on a longer term basis is easier as to daily moves.

Predicting daily moves is horrific, not my usual cup of tea!

I don't always see the point of losing money on a daily spot knowing its going to come back, now either that’s just the way people trade or just haven't got the capital to support losses or haven't got the courage to see losses run long.

But when trading long term trends (held for more then a day :cheesy you have to give your trade some breathing space, so you basically got to expect to see some losses at the beginning of your trade stages.

You hit your interpretation on the dot Lordnacho, euro & £ are at critical sort of levels therefore hard to predict until more clarity as to direction.

Best bet is to sit tight, wait and see then execute.

 

[User]

Hammer, my heads hurting! :cheesy:

Its hard to call. Things are not moving now because its night time!

Basically when I’m looking at the chart, its telling me a further correction is looking likely, although on the other hand I may take a 'long position' on GBP a bit later on as these values are still cheap. So go long now or later on and on a future contract I feel there’s gains to be taken.

The figures I mentioned as long as they are not taken out then 190 here we come.

The euro still looks likely for 129-130 but after some more 'little pullback'

Let me know what you do Hammer, Good luck!

 

[Lordnacho]

But the rolling cash bet seems to be exactly like trading the underlying, doesn't it? If you leave it until the market closes, it simply opens the next morning where the market opens. BTW, I'm on CMC.

 

[User]

Not with IG, oh it might be with your account, but doesn't the position get settled every night-meaning your losses or gains are settled even if the position is not?

That for my liking would be even worse!

Futures settle on date of expiry or when you close up-Thats what I like!

 

[User]

130-160 downside points left in the euro maxed out, any more then that and then the trend is questionable. On the other hand we're not too far from highs either. So yes we're sitting at a critical point as far as the euro concerned. A move down towards those levels would also form a triple bottom which could make the euro shoot high as renewed buying would come in.

 

[hammer]

I think a long with a stop at 1.8680 with a target of about 150 pips so 1.8850. But that is purely if i had to is what i would do, at the moment im unsure.

 

[User]

Currently slightly above 187 and I want to buy, if further correction then the next level is 18630. After that I wouldn't want it to breach the high of 12/01/04 as this is a support level at 18580.

Hammer I think you right in suggesting to buy. I just bought at 18560 June. It shouldn't breach the stated levels---fingers crossed. I've looked at my charts quiet intensively today.

I would have put two orders in before Greenspan speech today, but had to go out. So didn’t bother as I wouldn't like to leave those sort of trades unattended.

Goodluck with your trade Hammer.

 

[hammer]

Looks like you were right with the correction down to 1.8630 now just to see if it settles and goes back up or continues down. I went long from 1.8700 don't know whether to close or to hold on now. Don't know if i want to risk holding on if it continues down. But as you said there is no point throwing money away for free.

 

[Buk]

there's a smidging of 'news' out around 10.30 Hammer......eu/gfk consumer confidence, keep yer eye's peeled for that!....still hard into that downtrend when it sailed past 8700 though?!!

 

[hammer]

OK cool buk, thanks for the tip. This would be a big loss for me so don't want to close if its gonna go back up. I can't see it falling that much more anyway. If it does then i would say its down time for it and i don't think the fundamentals point towards a recovery for the dollar do they?

 

[Buk]

can appreciate your standing on your 'call' yeah....fair do's....agreed the fundamentals haven't changed too much no, but these technical jolts should be carefully 'watched'....an awful lot of limits/stops flailing around at these levels.....they'll be pitched & tossed this way & that....just ride the short term trends & judge the view on the supp breaks/channel busts!

 

[hammer]

Want to get out of trade don't like sitting on heavy losses waiting for a recovery, we'll see what effect this news has then go from there.

 

[Buk]

as a matter of interest Hammer...where was your stop on that move????

 

[hammer]

I had no stop in place, wanted to hold out till it reaches 1.9000 again but don't think i can. I prob should have put a stop in place, but if it reaches 1.8600 im out.

 

[Buk]

your saving grace may just be this Fib level here......if it reacts and shifts north a touch, it might just snatch a few stops on the way....keep on your guard!

 

[hammer]

Think i need to study fib levels more. What level would this be? If i use the up move this week then this would be the 68% level. right?

 

[Buk]

8637 from the 20th Jan - to the 9140 high's.

 

[hammer]

Although looking at it now i could say that another 100 point drop is on the cards. If i didn't have a position i would be more inclined to short this level. Decisions decisions! I've got no problems holding for even a week if i know its gonna go back up and not continue to fall another few hundred points. Is this just a retracement or will we never see 1.9000 again?

 

[Buk]

the 'bears' are definitely in control of this game, have been since it hit the high's and consolidated. Who knows where they'll drive it??....certainly pay's not to prod them though whilst they're hunting for scraps!.....best witing till the fall out subsides, and hop on a little further up the line....there are plenty of resistance camps highlighted & fibs to contend with.