Best Thread Euribor Flipper??

[cas54]

Sure - working spreads becomes a much harder task with the presence of someone who will often take one of your sides and the next couple of ticks in a few seconds. As bobltrade72 points out, spreaders are likely to decline in numbers.

Continuing with the evolution theme however, this is probably not too bad a thing for those who hang around. As the number of arbitrageurs diminish, the scope for attractive spreading should in theory re-emerge, and could become lucrative in spite of the Flipper. In fact, given that the Flipper (to my knowledge) does not take all spread related products on at the same time, someone who is ready to react to his large trades - or maybe an algorithm - can get into spreads at particularly attractive levels. I strongly believe that purely seeing the Flipper as hindrance to successful trading is wrong and defeatist.
I also think that the Flipper - however clever and smart he is - can be defeated at his own game. e.g. around Aug 2nd last year, it appeared he was forced into particularly painful stoplosses. Admittedly however, there are very few players with the size to take him on...

 

[cas54]

By the way, does anyone here trade cash bonds versus the strip?

 

[Verno]

I used to trade cash products against the strip but mainly short end stuff

 

[cas54]

what - sub one-year? Problem with all this euro stuff is that everything trades very tight to each other with low volatility, so that after you've paid repo bid-offer, you have very little chance of making any money.
I think there are some opportunities in the 2007/08 sector, but again it is largely a repo trade.

 

[Verno]

I guess it depends what you want to do. I was also trading repo (actually market making both repo and cash). As you say in a flat YC environment there is v little to be made out of any of this. It was mainly sub 1year (hence repo stuff as well) but occasionally longer.

 

[welsh_guy]

I believe that is a group of guys, working with a set algorithm! We need to try and work it out??... for sum reason they are not using it on the Bund - US 10 year?? i havent worked out why yet! any1 got any ideas? i'm not a spread trader, but thinkin about trying it as there were massive differences between Bund and 10 year today (18/04/05) Any1 else got any ideas on this? i'v developed a few tricks which seem to work using the tick chart on CGQ... which seems to help with the queue flippin.. i wud like some views so just add me to msn.. i'm on most nites!

anyways gud luck everyone!

 

[welsh_guy]

Oh My God guys is any1 trading the Bund today? its mad.... untradeable! Rotter and the boys are hard at work today

 

[Verno]

I don't want this to sound arrogant (or facecious) but when people put in big size in bund and nothing moves or trades, I always go back to the charts to try and work things out. I haven't been trading it today but my whenever its in a tight range (ie till 1:30) people will always screw with it, so I just try to trade extremities of market profile but being ready to reverse if it breaks out as it has now. It then closed the gap (worth a couple of ticks) but now has broken higher. I guess we have to watch to see if it tests previous high.

I know you know all of this but taking a step back helps me.

 

[NLT]

1 thing is for sure, he made lots of money thanks to me

if there is one person in the world I would like to kill it must be Rotter. I'm a spreadtrader (bobl/shatz/euribor), This week he was also in euribor dec05.

 

[SOCRATES]

1 thing is for sure, he made lots of money thanks to me

if there is one person in the world I would like to kill it must be Rotter. I'm a spreadtrader (bobl/shatz/euribor), This week he was also in euribor dec05.

Do so by all means. All you have to be is better than him. There is no sentiment in this business only cold proficiency, and lightning response.

Good Wishes To You.

 

[tbill]

NLT,

That is one reason I am not a big fan of FIFO. It encourages locking the market with big orders. Ultimately this helps the big guy. If an exchange thinks it can survive with only a few large market makers they are wrong.

 

[eldrechr]

Paul Rotter is not trading on LIFFE. The Bor flipper is rumoured to be a guy called James Shulman.

 

[newsoros]

Any idea who he's with, or is he a lone ranger? Any more info would be much appreciated!
Whoever it is - he must be getting hurt from time to time. Today I saw 6500 hit the bid in march 06. Could be position taking, but more likely to be Option covering. Good to know that the market can consume any size that is put up there.

 

[eldrechr]

He trades at Curvalue in Canary Wharf.

 

[tbill]

Thanks for the info.

 

[Verno]

6500 could be a hedge fund. they have to trade through a broker. I know of hedge funds who trade 6000 clips, so could be that?

 

[newsoros]

yeah, it could easily be a H.fund.
However, last week when a huge order went through in EB's last week, I just heard it was an options hedge. To be honest, it doent matter who it is - its still paper!

 

[eldrechr]

6000 would be a pretty small hedge fund.

Back in 1998 my broking desk crossed up Long Terms bobl position, 98,000 lots. Nice crossing that on the old dec-terms, when you had to give the old 2 minute cross warning. Someone tried to take us out.

 

[0FXTrader0]

I trade fx , but am interested to know how many ticks this flipper is taking as he must have to sucker people twice to get in and out for a profit ?

 

[NLT]

6000 would be a pretty small hedge fund.

Back in 1998 my broking desk crossed up Long Terms bobl position, 98,000 lots. Nice crossing that on the old dec-terms, when you had to give the old 2 minute cross warning. Someone tried to take us out.

Can you explain to me what exactly did happen in dec 2004 in the bobl. Heard it was something with citibank manipulating stuff, but don't know exactly what happened.

Whatever it was, it was one of te most nastiest spikes I have ever seen!!