EURAUD reversal pending

[Mr. Crabs]

EURAUD showing weakness.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

EURUSD chart set up beautifully ripe for reversal.

 

[Doomberg]

Damn i missed the 15040 area to short, was asleep but wanted 15000+

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Damn i missed the 15040 area to short, was asleep but wanted 15000+

That sucks, my hedge is still leaning comfortably on the short side after covering a bit. The EUR has been facing heavy selling pressure but the price is holding relatively steady. IMO this means whales are loading shorts and trying to close positions off, as much as the volume will allow under steady operation.

The sharp spike in AUD price contrary to the EUR sell off is a good sign as well, it means the upside is fresh and the sellers are losing strength. Once the EUR turns bearish and sends concrete signals to traders that it's time to jump on the short side the AUD will move up sharply and quickly.

This could turn out to be an extraordinarily profitable reversal for both currencies. Good for Australia. Their loyal traders should be able to have a ball with this one.

Also before I mentioned the GBP as a pair with the EUR but I have revised my opinion on that as the GBP looks good to buy for the very long-term, but as a mod-term play I have not much confidence in it. The CAD on the other hand looks like it would pair very well with the EUR.

 

[ZaBu]

Thought I should come back and thank you for the pointer on this pair. Looking good so far. Thanks.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

OK so the EUR moved down as I anticipated while the AUD moved up. This week I expect the EUR to move up or flat while the AUD corrects.

So now I expect EURAUD to move up, but only through the week. Next week I anticipate its' downward direction will presume.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Thought I should come back and thank you for the pointer on this pair. Looking good so far. Thanks.

Glad I could help. Remember I expect the EURAUD to take a breather this week with the USD consolidating and the AUD consolidating as well taking a breather after moving up significantly last week. Then the downtrend should presume and momentum should build from there.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Update for this week - macro-mechanics

Glad I could help. Remember I expect the EURAUD to take a breather this week with the USD consolidating and the AUD consolidating as well taking a breather after moving up significantly last week. Then the downtrend should presume and momentum should build from there.

EUR looks heavy, ready to give in to the bears already and plop down after a relatively weak rebound. On the other hand the dollar may pull off a strong rebound in the short-term as smart money continues to exit the EUR. Naturally much of those funds would find their way into USD's. But mod-term I think both of the major currencies will drop. The EUR decline will bring the USD down as well (and possibly the GBP too), but I think the USD's strength will cushion the drop relative to the EUR which may decline more sharply. Therefore the EURUSD should decline but not as much as the EURAUD which I think will be the smartest pair to hold bearish on.

Smart money should find its' way back into the AUD considering many major currencies are looking weak or are in the beginning (or late) stages of a price correction. Looking at the long-term the AUD has been the strongest and the recent correction allows for a great entry price for those exiting the EUR.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Revision on outlook for EURAUD

Thought I should come back and thank you for the pointer on this pair. Looking good so far. Thanks.

I was anticipating the EUR to fall out late Friday of very early next week but the rebound has been weaker than I expected so I think the EURAUD should move up through some of next week as well before it falls back down to new quarterly lows.

Just something I picked up with signals this week, re-calibrated my timing.

Hope this helps.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

I was anticipating the EUR to fall out late Friday of very early next week but the rebound has been weaker than I expected so I think the EURAUD should move up through some of next week as well before it falls back down to new quarterly lows.

Just something I picked up with signals this week, re-calibrated my timing.

Hope this helps.

This weeks opening was surprising. The USD gapped down and has been holding support. We are at a crucial moment looking for signals whether support will once again hold, or if it will not. This move could determine whether the EUR sustains its' value or not. I speculate USD will hold its' support and the EUR will hold flat and begin to tumble early on this week. Due to the fact that the USD is the strongest currency, and that the EUR is in the beginning stages of a mod-term reversal.

I'll keep updating as signals come in and my vision of the future improves.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

It appears the EUR is being heavily shorted, its' price being sustained because people are covering at profits during the intra-day. I don't expect this price will hold up very much longer. It looks very heavy whilst the USD looks very light and fresh from its' sell off.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

It appears the EUR is being heavily shorted, its' price being sustained because people are covering at profits during the intra-day. I don't expect this price will hold up very much longer. It looks very heavy whilst the USD looks very light and fresh from its' sell off.

It appears the EUR and USD are topping off for the intra-day. Once selling starts to bring the price down money will likely flow into the AUD which looks ripe for a bounce.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Looks like the next leg down is about to start for the EURAUD.

It appears the EUR and USD are topping off for the intra-day. Once selling starts to bring the price down money will likely flow into the AUD which looks ripe for a bounce.

FED sparked a big move, USD got cut down and the AUD snapped upwards. The EUR snapped up temporarily but it has already moved back down which means heavy selling continues.

Looks like the next leg down is about to start for the EURAUD. After the USD finishes correcting from this move the EUR could become very soft.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Update from tells and new timing calibration

FED sparked a big move, USD got cut down and the AUD snapped upwards. The EUR snapped up temporarily but it has already moved back down which means heavy selling continues.

Looks like the next leg down is about to start for the EURAUD. After the USD finishes correcting from this move the EUR could become very soft.

EUR made a strong move up courtesy of the FEDS decision I imagine. The USD has rebounded from its' correction and is looking strong on the intra-day.

I expect the EUR will not be able to reach new highs which means profit potential on the upside is a mere 1-2% for the mod-term, on the other hand the USD could potentially reach new highs if the EUR shows signs that a solid mod-term reversal to the downside has taken place. The profit potential for the USD if it neared previous highs is approximately 5%. So as my usual principle for predicting the market that the most lucrative direction is the most natural would tell me smart heavyweights will place their money in the USD over the EUR. So this thread to me is still valid until proven otherwise.

Judging by the timing it looks like the EUR will likely continue to hold up around or above this range through today, possibly till the end of next week. My somewhat conservative estimate is it will begin to soften up before Tuesday and a strong sell signal will have been sent through the markets by next Friday for the average trader and money movers to see or hear about.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

EUR made a strong move up courtesy of the FEDS decision I imagine. The USD has rebounded from its' correction and is looking strong on the intra-day.

I expect the EUR will not be able to reach new highs which means profit potential on the upside is a mere 1-2% for the mod-term, on the other hand the USD could potentially reach new highs if the EUR shows signs that a solid mod-term reversal to the downside has taken place. The profit potential for the USD if it neared previous highs is approximately 5%. So as my usual principle for predicting the market that the most lucrative direction is the most natural would tell me smart heavyweights will place their money in the USD over the EUR. So this thread to me is still valid until proven otherwise.

Judging by the timing it looks like the EUR will likely continue to hold up around or above this range through today, possibly till the end of next week. My somewhat conservative estimate is it will begin to soften up before Tuesday and a strong sell signal will have been sent through the markets by next Friday for the average trader and money movers to see or hear about.

I've got a hunch the USD will crack before the EUR breaks down. So be on the lookout for a sharp USD drop to signal a EUR drop during the USD rebound.

This would be a good way for big money to take advantage of the more responsive funds moving through the markets.

USD drops, funds go into the EUR while short loaders sit on top of it, USD rebounds and the EUR breaks down sharp for the mod-term.

Like I say the most natural course for the market is the most profitable, this would be the most profitable I presume.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

MY timing was way off. I should have known things wouldn't develop as quickly as I anticipated.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

MY timing was way off. I should have known things wouldn't develop as quickly as I anticipated.

USD found support while EUR moved sideways to start the week looking very chunky.

I have an idea the USD will break support before the EUR gets chopped down.

Government shutdown makes the USD breaking support all the more likely. When this issue is resolved the USD is likely to bounce hard, EUR contrarily will have to sell. This could all just be part of a stunt for easy profits. Just like wise money loaded up gold before the FED announcements wise money may also load up the USD under support because obviously this issue will be resolved soon.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Weeks end update

EUR sold heavy today. I speculate the USD will break support next week and the EUR will hold up steady. The AUD and CAD would be well off to take some profits and consolidate as they have big mod-term rallies in store. The GBP sold sharply with the EUR as well, I think they will both rebound somewhat through next week.

We'll see how next week pans out.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

EUR sold heavy today. I speculate the USD will break support next week and the EUR will hold up steady. The AUD and CAD would be well off to take some profits and consolidate as they have big mod-term rallies in store. The GBP sold sharply with the EUR as well, I think they will both rebound somewhat through next week.

We'll see how next week pans out.

The forex moves so slow.