EUR/USD - Want a 75% win rate?

[tomorton]

The thread title is a bit of a tease but this is basic price action from the D1 chart. When price makes one or more lower daily closes, then 2 consecutive higher daily closes, the probability of the next daily close being lower is about 75%. Likewise if you reverse the directions.

Similar probabilities occur on other pairs and indices. The pattern extends back to at least 2020 on multiple pairs.

Feel free to do something with this, and please post your outcomes.

 

[timsk]

The thread title is a bit of a tease but this is basic price action from the D1 chart. When price makes one or more lower daily closes, then 2 consecutive higher daily closes, the probability of the next daily close being lower is about 75%. Likewise if you reverse the directions.

Similar probabilities occur on other pairs and indices. The pattern extends back to at least 2020 on multiple pairs.

Feel free to do something with this, and please post your outcomes.

Nice one Tom.
When you say: ". . . the probability of the next daily close being lower is about 75%" - lower than what - I assume you mean the previous day's close?
Tim.

 

[tomorton]

Nice one Tom.
When you say: ". . . the probability of the next daily close being lower is about 75%" - lower than what - I assume you mean the previous day's close?
Tim.

Yes that's it Tim, it's as simple as that.

Obviously using this pattern would demand a statistically significant number of trades so as to replicate the historical performance, and it's self-limiting to only one trade per day per market - and not even every day. But I venture that 75% is a significant edge.

 

[tomorton]

Round-up for Monday 23/10, across the 28 leading forex pairs -
20 signals - 11 winners, 9 losers

 

[tomorton]

Round-up for Tuesday 24/10, across the 28 leading forex pairs -
17 signals - 16 winners, 1 loser

 

[tomorton]

Of course, if price makes a third or subsequent higher daily close, the probability of the next close being lower is even greater.

 

[tomorton]

Round-up for Wednesday 25/10, across the 28 leading forex pairs -
6 signals - 6 winners, 0 losers

 

[tomorton]

Round-up for Thursday 26/10, across the 28 leading forex pairs -
15 signals - 10 winners, 5 losers.

You get the idea...

 

[Calinor]

Hi Tomorton. What is the size of an average win (say the next day's close), an average loss, and what is the disaster stop (EURUSD for example)?

 

[NewsTradePro]

The EUR/USD has been extremely low in movement within the past few years. Perhaps on Daily chart analysis you can get better results.

 

[tomorton]

I think the 75% win rate figure was a little ambitious....