EUR/USD, looks like a sell to me

[Masquerade]

you can't predict exactly every movement, just sell when support cracks, close position when price gets close to 50 EMA, or when you feel like it

If you can't predict exactly every movement, why were you so precise to say 1.4160? So for those who are short on the break. They're now looking at a loss or barely breaking even. What are they going to be aiming for - entry is the easy bit in trading. In fact I find it relatively meaningless.

You're really 15 btw?

 

[TAjammy]

yeh i'm 15. 1.4160- i chose this because it seemed like good support, an important support , so that the downward move has three things on its side-
a)cracked support
b)earlier divergence
c)price falling below 50 EMA and 20 EMA

otherwise i could sell a currency which has divergence, but it could just keep going higher. I want to increase the proability and safety of the trade by waiting for important price levels to break on the downside. by the way im used to stocks, leanred them for a year, i've just started forex 1 day ago on demo lol

 

[shadowninja]

Easier said than done to manage the trade. When you can do it a thousand times and have a better account than when you started, then you're potentially showing potential.

Is it going to move more in your direction? Is it going to fall back? Shall I hold for more? Will it hit my stop loss? Shall I cut half? Shall I let the lot run? Shall I move the stop? Shall I leave the stop in place? Is my stop too small? Is it unnecessarily big? How will I know I'm just plain wrong?

And Dan, never take peoples' calls. Learn to work out the best entries yourself. Taking other peoples' signals or calls is the road to ruin.

And making calls is fantastic when you're right... and if you're wrong you just don't mention it again. Job done.

 

[TAjammy]

shadow, do you think my strategy is sh*t?:|

 

[shadowninja]

I think it has merit. You need to figure out when it's going to fail and how to deal with a losing trade. And how to manage a winning trade. I mean, on backtesting, you can say, "Yeah, I entered there... and exited there..." right at the end of the move, but in reality it doesn't work like that. As some wise T2Wer said, it's much harder when you can't see the right side of the chart.

 

[TAjammy]

i agree totally, backtesting was a lot easier, whilst when 'it happens' i have no idea of the direction, so to minimise i sold in small blocks

 

[TAjammy]

do you want me to show you a picture of the p/l sheet today? edit: never mind, anyway i need to find a proper exit strategy for this... any suggestions?

 

[Masquerade]

yeh i'm 15. 1.4160- i chose this because it seemed like good support, an important support , so that the downward move has three things on its side-
a)cracked support
b)earlier divergence
c)price falling below 50 EMA and 20 EMA

otherwise i could sell a currency which has divergence, but it could just keep going higher. I want to increase the proability and safety of the trade by waiting for important price levels to break on the downside. by the way im used to stocks, leanred them for a year, i've just started forex 1 day ago on demo lol

I see it as some previous resistance. But have you not seen support break by 10 pips or so in the past and then bounce back? Also, remember that support often needs a reason to break. At this time trading is pretty much a purely technical exercise as there's little fundamental activity at this time so it's less likely to hold a break.

I would say don't rely too heavily on indicators and the like. I think there's value in what you say about levels breaking. But you're young and have time to worry about this

 

[TAjammy]

hmmm, i only use two indicators though, MAs and stochastics! o by the way NZD/USD some divergence spotted, like before wait for good support to crack- at around 0.64875 . If that doesn't crack don't try to short at all

 

[shadowninja]

do you want me to show you a picture of the p/l sheet today? edit: never mind, anyway i need to find a proper exit strategy for this... any suggestions?

Practice until you figure it out. It entirely depends on what's going on at that time so you'll need to experiment. Also, different pairs have different characteristics.

 

[shadowninja]

hmmm, i only use two indicators though, MAs and stochastics! o by the way NZD/USD some divergence spotted, like before wait for good support to crack- at around 0.64875 . If that doesn't crack don't try to short at all

Out of interest, if someone takes one of your calls, what happens if you're wrong and the person loses £1k. Are you going to refund them?

 

[RidderTrade]

yes,but trend is still up for the time being

 

[TAjammy]

Out of interest, if someone takes one of your calls, what happens if you're wrong and the person loses £1k. Are you going to refund them?

well it's that someone's fault for listening to someone over the internet !

 

[shadowninja]

Of course, but that doesn't stand up in court very well.

 

[TAjammy]

huh? court?

 

[trendie]

Out of interest, if someone takes one of your calls, what happens if you're wrong and the person loses £1k. Are you going to refund them?

SN,

thats a spurious argument.
if someone suggested that they "go take a running jump", are you seriously suggesting the fault lies with the suggestee?

oh! that reminds me of the driver who followed the instructions of his satnav and drove into a river.

as you were...

 

[shadowninja]

FSA and all that...

 

[Masquerade]

SN,

thats a spurious argument.
if someone suggested that they "go take a running jump", are you seriously suggesting the fault lies with the suggestee?

oh! that reminds me of the driver who followed the instructions of his satnav and drove into a river.

as you were...

If the fault didn't lie with the suggestee, why do all these guys making a living out of selling calls put disclaimers at the end of their statements and on the bottom of their websites?

If I suggest to a loyal, mentally deficient person to "go take a running jump" and they die - I could find myself in court for that as they can't grasp the effects and rationalise the risk of their actions.

 

[shadowninja]

Are you saying that all people who take calls or signals are mentally deficient, then?

PS Should I go long the euro now?

 

[Masquerade]

Are you saying that all people who take calls or signals are mentally deficient, then?

PS Should I go long the euro now?

It's an analogy. But maybe they are in a trading sense. Who's to say.

PS Ask TAjammy