EUR/USD and payroll numbers

Dave1971

Active member
Jun 10, 2004
135
0
26
48
West Yorkshire
#1
I came accross a guy in the US yesterday trying to punt his system for trading the non farms payroll numbers on the first friday of each month.

I haven't bought anything, but on initial research it seems a reasonable way to give your months tally a boost.

It would appear that if you place simultaneous buy and sell orders at 8.29am(EST) at the top and bottom of the 8.15am(EST) bar and let the trade run for just a minute or two, you have a pretty good chance of catching the initial spike when the numbers are released.

I was wondering if anyone had any experience of trading these numbers, and also if anyone had signed up to this guy, who's site is www.winningtradersassociation.com.

Unless I'm missing something I can't see what he could be selling beyond the above?


Dave
 

FetteredChinos

Well-known member
Jun 11, 2003
3,897
40
58
41
Fraggle Rock
www.xlexceladdin.com
#2
sounds like the basis of his system.

i also have a fear that slippage may be enormous, as is usually the case on NFP data.

there was a 200 pip gap a few months back..

wonder if he included that in his "backtest".....


it probably does work over time. but what would you do for the remaining 19 trading days a month ;)
 

TWI

Well-known member
Jan 22, 2004
2,516
245
73
London
#4
I have traded non-farm for a long time, glad to finally find out where I have been going wrong.
If this system can work I think you need to be very skilled at the levels you place the orders and also you better be sure that whoever you are using will guarantee a fill at the price you specified or you could find out you bought the high and sold the low.
Wouldn't it be great to make all your months money by the first Friday....we can but dream.
 

Dave1971

Active member
Jun 10, 2004
135
0
26
48
West Yorkshire
#5
Thanks for the input everyone, clearly usual rules apply, " if it's so good why sell it ".

Not that I would have bought a system off him, I was just enquiring whether anyone had used a similar strategy with any success.

Thanks again

Dave
 
Apr 25, 2003
63
0
16
#6
Nfp

theres nothing new or complicated about a straddle trade......i always do it for the nfp and ive always been filled at the prices i stipulated in the buy and sell orders, whichever is hit first......

i usually set my orders about two minutes before the news is released about 15 pips either side of the actual price......i use a piece of software to make adjustments to the orders as price fluctuates before the news.......

you have to be quick to cancel the unfilled order as soon as you are in and to take profit which i usually do by means of a limit order as the news candle can turn around very quickly.......the last nfp got me 71 pips out of a 79 pip candle......after that price fell i think.......

i accepts its not trading but who cares......and i still trade the other 19 days of the month......
 
Apr 25, 2003
63
0
16
#7
Nfp

i dont trade as many lots as i would in a normal trade so im unlikely to get wiped out........

i dont use a bookie either......i use interbank fx....they have no deal desk.....all trades are directed straight to the banks they have agreements with.......

i know several people who use interbank fx and none of them have ever been slipped......





GammaJammer said:
Fair enough - there's no law against you doing this. I just reckon one day you may come unstuck and potentially the cost could wipe out a lot of your earlier gains. Not to mention the fact that your booky is unlikely to rush to help you out if you ever do need a favour.

Incidentally, if you don't mind me asking, who are you trading with? I thought pretty much all shops had stopped guaranteeing fllls nowadays.

GJ
 
Apr 25, 2003
63
0
16
#10
Nfp

no, i trade spot forex.......

as far as im aware interbank fx dont do futures....



GammaJammer said:
Are you trading fx futures rather than spot bertie?

I ask because the slideshow on interbank fx's website depicts charts with symbols ending in 'H5', M5' etc (futures month / date suffixes).

GJ
 
Apr 25, 2003
63
0
16
#11
Interbank Fx

i thought id let you find that out for yourself, homer!!!.......

they are a good company and well worth a look at.......




GammaJammer said:
Ah - just taken a closer look. H5 means a 5 hour chart, M... means minutes etc. D'OH!