arabianights
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I think if it's going to happen it will happen by March.
If/when it happens I would urge everyone, especially those in government, to put special attention on the inflationary part of it.
In Spain, the inflation was huge, that year. People were not educated enough and used to pass the pesetas over, receiving the change in euros and, the older they were, the less they understood.
As a rough rule, lots of people used a 100 pesetas coin as being equal to 1 euro. The difference in value was considerable and many shops took advantage of the situation by revalueing their goods upwards.
Most people are very careless with the change in their pockets. That is where the danger is, though. Before you know it, everything will be costing much more.
In the European zone, we learned the conversion the hard way. You guys have the opportunity to pick over our experiences and get it right.
It isn't the hundreds and thousands that is the problem, people get the calculators out for those sums.
It's the price of a cup of coffee and everyday shopping that needs to be watched.
OAPs and similar are going to be hit, badly, unless all this is sorted out well before the act.
In Spain, the inflation was huge, that year. People were not educated enough and used to pass the pesetas over, receiving the change in euros and, the older they were, the less they understood.
As a rough rule, lots of people used a 100 pesetas coin as being equal to 1 euro. The difference in value was considerable and many shops took advantage of the situation by revalueing their goods upwards.
Most people are very careless with the change in their pockets. That is where the danger is, though. Before you know it, everything will be costing much more.
In the European zone, we learned the conversion the hard way. You guys have the opportunity to pick over our experiences and get it right.
It isn't the hundreds and thousands that is the problem, people get the calculators out for those sums.
It's the price of a cup of coffee and everyday shopping that needs to be watched.
OAPs and similar are going to be hit, badly, unless all this is sorted out well before the act.
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I've been in Dollars since September. Find a currency fund.
foredog
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Cheers Split, it's just a pain because i'm not too worried about my savings etc but i trade UK shares so all my profit/wages are in £ so moving that over just for living expenses could start getting expensive if the rate keeps falling.
Even Menu del Dia won't be (as) cheap if the rate is 1:1
Even Menu del Dia won't be (as) cheap if the rate is 1:1
It isn't impossible but very unlikely. The euro is currently way overvalued only because trichet and co are constantly talking/propping it up as they live in some kind of dreamland that euro will one day become the world's primary reserve currency. They are living in denial of the reality of the dire position that the eoro economy is in. At some stage they will be forced to take the necessary action by which time they will be way behind themselves and that action will have to be all the more severe, maybe even good-bye euro. If, today, they don't make a significant move towards repairing their broken economy the euro will be in very dire straits in 2009 and may not survive the year.
The Brits, certainly, have had a good time coming over here, in recent years with their pounds. I don't blame them for taking full advantage of their good fortune, but it looks as if the tide is running out for them right now. Its bad enough for us.
Spaniards have been horrified by train season tickets in the UK, plus the increases in gas, water, etc. That is the fault of privatisation and non regulation by the government.
At least, we can still get around Barcelona for less than a Euro and the same ticket can be used for changing from metro to bus. Prices normally go up at the beginning of the year and I'm sure that there will be some nasty surprises.
I wouldn't worry about the euro, I'd be more worried about the pound, if I were you. The UK is borrowed up to its eyebrows. The government will borrow money until the rest of the world says "enough is enough". Then the government will have to print money.
I'm not saying that Europe is a bed of roses, especially in taking on additional members but Brown, really, was an imprudent chancellor and the government, in general, is more indebted than most other countries.
EUR/USD intraday: consolidation.
Pivot: 1.268
Our preference: Long positions above 1.268 with targets @ 1.2565 & 1.2515 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.268 look for further downside with 1.273 & 1.2765 as targets.
Comments: the RSI broke below a bullish trend line.
EUR/USD pair has settled today.
Pivot: 1.268
Our preference: Long positions above 1.268 with targets @ 1.2565 & 1.2515 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.268 look for further downside with 1.273 & 1.2765 as targets.
Comments: the RSI broke below a bullish trend line.
EUR/USD pair has settled today.
montmorencyt2w
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I voted for March, but I think it will actually happen well before that.
I'm afraid I disagree with RWB's analysis, and don't think the Euro is all that overvalued, not compared with the pound, anyway. They may be in a bad state, but ours is worse.
When/if it does get down to parity, that might be the time for us to enter the Euro. According to some of the tabloids, this is on the cards anyway.
Inflationary effects: Good point there, and I think the recent reduction in VAT has had a hidden inflationary effect. Why? Well, for example, Waitrose (in common with many competitors, I believe), took the decision not to go around reducing the price of all its VAT-able goods, but to "invest the money" that the VAT-reduction would mean in reducing its prices (selectively) across the whole range.
Well, "hmmm" on two accounts:
1) This means that (by definition), in order to keep the price of its VAT-able good the same, they must have actually _increased_ the net price of those goods to make the end price at the newly reduced rate of VAT the same, resulting in more profit for Waitrose, and no saving for the purchasers of those items.
2) This selective reduction in prices ... sounds good in theory "we have reduced the prices of goods you buy frequently instead of reducing the prices of items (e.g. toiletries) that you only buy now and again..". Well, what this means in practice is that they have second-guessed what I am supposed to buy frequently, and surprise surprise, guessed wrong. Not a single item that I do actually buy at least once a week has come down in price. One item that I do buy once every few weeks has come down, admittedly. None of the items that I buy frequently which are actually VAT-able has come down (see above).
I think this will actually backfire on them, as I am sure other people will notice the same effect, even if they do not scrutinise their till-receipts as closely as I always do (me, a nerd, nah!...).
This was all done by agreement with the Treasury, apparently....another "hmmmm"!
Regards,
M.
I'm afraid I disagree with RWB's analysis, and don't think the Euro is all that overvalued, not compared with the pound, anyway. They may be in a bad state, but ours is worse.
When/if it does get down to parity, that might be the time for us to enter the Euro. According to some of the tabloids, this is on the cards anyway.
Inflationary effects: Good point there, and I think the recent reduction in VAT has had a hidden inflationary effect. Why? Well, for example, Waitrose (in common with many competitors, I believe), took the decision not to go around reducing the price of all its VAT-able goods, but to "invest the money" that the VAT-reduction would mean in reducing its prices (selectively) across the whole range.
Well, "hmmm" on two accounts:
1) This means that (by definition), in order to keep the price of its VAT-able good the same, they must have actually _increased_ the net price of those goods to make the end price at the newly reduced rate of VAT the same, resulting in more profit for Waitrose, and no saving for the purchasers of those items.
2) This selective reduction in prices ... sounds good in theory "we have reduced the prices of goods you buy frequently instead of reducing the prices of items (e.g. toiletries) that you only buy now and again..". Well, what this means in practice is that they have second-guessed what I am supposed to buy frequently, and surprise surprise, guessed wrong. Not a single item that I do actually buy at least once a week has come down in price. One item that I do buy once every few weeks has come down, admittedly. None of the items that I buy frequently which are actually VAT-able has come down (see above).
I think this will actually backfire on them, as I am sure other people will notice the same effect, even if they do not scrutinise their till-receipts as closely as I always do (me, a nerd, nah!...).
This was all done by agreement with the Treasury, apparently....another "hmmmm"!
Regards,
M.
arabianights
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Crazy idea to join the Euro. That's a **** currency held together by glue of diarrhoea.
Better idea to join the Yuan maybe?
Better idea to join the Yuan maybe?
montmorencyt2w
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Now AN, don't you go trying to baffle me with your high-powered, highfalutin' technical talk, you sweet-talker you! 
The Euro's glue seems to have been holding it together ok somehow or other, and it was holding its own against the US dollar until fairly recently, and is doing so again against the pound.
From a purely personal point of view, I'd love to be in the Euro, as most of my overseas travelling is in the Eurozone. It would also help out all those wealthy expat traders over there, of whom this Forum seems to be so full :innocent:
Regards,
M.
The Euro's glue seems to have been holding it together ok somehow or other, and it was holding its own against the US dollar until fairly recently, and is doing so again against the pound.
From a purely personal point of view, I'd love to be in the Euro, as most of my overseas travelling is in the Eurozone. It would also help out all those wealthy expat traders over there, of whom this Forum seems to be so full :innocent:
Regards,
M.
DennyCode12
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Pound still stagnant........liquid at 3rd week december
trader_dante
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I've been writing on this forum and telling everyone else that will listen to buy this aggressively ever since it was at 0.7000 or so. There was a great setup on the monthly chart which I called on Making Money Trading and it still hasn't stopped out.
Buy and hold. We are going to parity.
As for when? Harder to say. But I would bet that we trade AT parity before we trade back below 0.7700.
Buy and hold. We are going to parity.
As for when? Harder to say. But I would bet that we trade AT parity before we trade back below 0.7700.
montmorencyt2w
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Buy and hold? Mummy, that bad man over there said "buy and hold" .... Waahhh!
