Best Thread :|Entry=Risk Exit=Reward|:

[Joey25]

Little strategy for getting into breakouts or trailing.

If you see high momentum, get in stick a stop at the open of the 5m coloured candle. Only trail on the colour the momentum is going. In this case only red on the way down and only green on the way up.

You don't have to do colours, once it's broken through s/r you can just stick it past there (will annotate another chart in a bit). I'll update these by the end of 4pm to show you how they resulted.

In this case I went long at 05, but got out at 20-30 (not been a good day AT ALL), if I followed this strategy I would be up approx 70 pips

Thanks for that Phil.

Stop trailing is the thing that keeps me awake at night (sad?), and I hadn't thought of this.

Will be interesting to see how it performs on the higher timeframes.

 

[HaloTrader]

Really interesting journal Phil... I like the way you trade (1-hourly but entry/exit on 5-minute chart) thats what i'm currently doing but only on the FTSE100, not ready to do it on mutiple charts like you yet... Do you use the hourly to draw in support and resistance then?

I noticed you had FTSE100 analysis earlier in the thread so more of that would be lovely for me if you had any time ^^ It was very insightful and good to see if i have my lines right.

-Halo

 

[KillPhil08]

Getting some beers in atm, definitely looking to expand this thread and sum up what has been talked about in the last 17 pages. I'm going to do the mother of all posts - either today - or this weekend. Not sure drink + t2w is a good idea on past experiences.

Hopefully we'll get more people in, I'm looking at posting trades in which me (and others) can enter. Only really interested in people who are trading with money and are non hindsight. Man, I'm waffling.

In short, Yeah halo, i'll post some stuff up, i gave ftse scalping a rest for a while but got my laptop back so will most likely be adding some stuff - I use 1m entries on ftse btw (Did some yesterdya ).

How'd you enjoy the budget?

 

[HaloTrader]

Getting some beers in atm, definitely looking to expand this thread and sum up what has been talked about in the last 17 pages. I'm going to do the mother of all posts - either today - or this weekend. Not sure drink + t2w is a good idea on past experiences.

Hopefully we'll get more people in, I'm looking at posting trades in which me (and others) can enter. Only really interested in people who are trading with money and are non hindsight. Man, I'm waffling.

In short, Yeah halo, i'll post some stuff up, i gave ftse scalping a rest for a while but got my laptop back so will most likely be adding some stuff - I use 1m entries on ftse btw (Did some yesterdya ).

How'd you enjoy the budget?

Sounds very good.
How do you scalp 1-minute FTSE100? I tried 1-minute 1-2-3 setups once on it but the risk/reward wasn't earning me any favors.
I avoided the budget because i don't know how to trade the news very well (no experience) so i just avoided it - i did watch it to see how it panned out.

 

[KillPhil08]

breakout or s/r plays

 

[KillPhil08]

Said this yesterday, It broke the downtrend, it just needs to find resistance, perhaps at the second one.

 

[KillPhil08]

I said yesterday, ALL DAILIES are setting up well!

Seriously, dojis on euros. Bearish on sterlings. Pins on CADS etc etc etc.

 

[KillPhil08]

got a second long on. out now EURUSD is at pretty big daily resistance here (think gizmo pointed out 80-90 too).


ej trade was out partially for 55 pips for around 5:1 R:R and i trailed using the colour candle strategy.

Still got 20% on colour candle strat.

Been scalping ftse all day. it has been fun, much less stressful.

 

[KillPhil08]

shorted EU brilliant level, eyeing up 13042, going to cut some now.
edit 42

edit again. the level is 13052.

14542 on cable was another level, got the charts mixed up.

 

[HaloTrader]

Bit of a daft question Phil - When you scalp the FTSE100, can i watch your screen? lol

Just be very interesting to see how you do it live... Entries/stops/calculate s/r decide a good from bad trade... ^^ Be cool if possible.

 

[KillPhil08]

All answers are coming soon dude. However, it's best not to learn exactly the same way - so you have your own opinion but also it's very hard to learn exactly the same way. I used to tell indicator traders to feck off but now I understand that if it makes them profitable it's fine.

I had a ftse scalping method somewhere on video. Euro about to hit 13000.

 

[KillPhil08]

2009 - First Week Of May​

I'm going to run down on daily, 4h, 1h and 5m if I'm playing the open. Firstly a few things;

Daily trendlines tend to over extend their range a little before coming back. I use cash since the spread is smaller. Be careful, what you think might be a breakout might just be a fakeout. These are just some of the markets I'm going to be trading. In future they will have my entries, stops etc. This was just a quicky I made. In future I will add important fib's probably. I still haven't completely my analysis but it might be useful to view this from someone else's perspective. I mostly scalp but this journal was supposed to help me gain direction from higher timeframes, and eventually swing trade properly. Mondays are usually the best for trends + massive pips, if this happens half the time the rest of the week ranges.

Let's do this.


FTSE100


FTSE broke it's recent highs, tried to double top but failed. The move was late in the day so profit takers and short sellers might come in. However if it test this level again after a fall we could be seeing the next resistance line up. Look out for strong rejections.

On the 4h there was a massive tail springing the direction upward off 3900. There was a chance to add to this on the 1hour when it hit the uptrend at 4000 (not drawn in sorry, dl the file then add one if you want). A further place to add would be the retest of the previous high after it broke.

I posted this breakout on the FTSE trading thread some days ago (possibly here too).

Things are looking up for ftse, wait until you see a massive rejection and trade the other way.

Cable


Cable on daily has made lower lows. It hasnt broken into it's old uptrend line yet, but soon that'll be miles away. I think we might be looking at a range before it decides, I'd like the two tops of the channel to hold to make a third touch.
4h it looks like a head and shoulders is forming, with that long tail at the top i'd be relunctant to go long for a swing, it really has to break 14786.
1h shows the recent uptrend better, you can see it's stuck in a wedge and will have to break soon.
5m lines are the ones I'm watching to get in for a swing.

Euro


Dailies are making lower lows etc. As soon as this channel breaks it's going to be huge. SO many people are looking at this, this will be a good move to get in on.
4h Might be coming down before it reaches the top of the channel, long tails suggest selling.
1h Just a clearer view of this. 5minute how i'm playing it.

EJ


Wait for a break of the lines.

GJ
]

USDCAD



OIL!!!


GBPCAD


EURGBP



Sorry guys the more I type the more the quality of the post detoriates. I haven't had enough time to make this into a quality post and as FX opens I want to get into trades not type here. Sorry for rushing this.

I hope the annotations on the charts are enough, I should be doing this most weeks with updates during the week. I haven't done my big post yet, it should include techniques of trading including, entry, stops, risk, exits and trailing.

Have a great week trading and hope you enjoyed the charts. Next one will be ALOT better.

 

[KillPhil08]

50% fib. daily area at '80. Just might be worth a look in the future. And if it gets there, I said it first!!!

Let's start looking for fib trend and horizontal correlation. I want some high probablity trades.

 

[KillPhil08]

Cable broke out, GJ broke out, EJ broke out. Euro approaching 50%. Will animate a gif overlay later.

 

[KillPhil08]

Going against the grain here, but might be a place of retracement....STRONG rejection on cable.

cable bounced off upper channel AND more importantly the daily trend from ages ago.

 

[KillPhil08]

Currently looking at cable and AUDUSD dailies, they look very good, especially where they bounced from - it's just the fact that they bounced off other daily candles (147 on cable) audusd7233ish. I'm going to try some break out strats but more likely will be testing with small amounts then adding aggressively if it breaks. More likely just to scalp ftse.

 

[KillPhil08]

I'm going to fade all these move on monday - as monday is a holiday, if this keeps going up i'll fade tuesday instead.

 

[KillPhil08]

Ok bear in mind what I said above.

1st: Sorry this guide i'm making is taking long, it's hard to juggle typing, scalping, working, freetime and coding at the same time.

2nd; The next post I'm uploading won't be as comprehensive as I would like it to be, but it contains some decent patterns which you could work off.

3rd; Last weeks post actually went REALLY well if you compare the lines I drew + commentary to what actually happened.

4th; Don't rep me please. Seriously, it's nice and all but I'm doing this to learn for myself as well as you guys. HOWEVER donations can be made to = Edinburgh, EH..... .

 

[KillPhil08]

3rd of May Weekend Analysis

3rd of May Weekend Analysis

WTI Crude - View Bullish


Support and Resistance:
$55.00
$53.63
$53.21
$52.00/$51.92
$51.74

Scenario:
Crude has broken it's descending channel to the upside and finally broke the $52.00 handle. It found resistance at early aprils highs and will now have to retest the more recent high of 17th of april before continuing higher. I need to see a decent break of $53.21 before going long, if it hit's this and rebounds then it is likely to draw towards the $52 handle at the downtrend it was previously stuck in.

However, if it breaks all previous bounces and continues it's journey upwards. $55.00 will be a very nice place to short.

How I'm playing it - Go long off the downtrend/$52.00 or short off $53.21 if price action indicates reversal (immediate spike to this level).

EURJPY - View Neutral


Support and Resistance:
13744
13437
13225
13124
12930

Scenario:
Ok, EJ has gone up MILES, seriously, I've been trying to short this channel all week and I'm kicking myself for not staying in from my long at the 5min pin at the bottom (not kidding). I have no idea where this will stop so my view is neutral until some significant break is induced.

How I'm playing it - Looking for shorts on the hourly, I'd like a 50% retracement however I'll get what I'm given.


GBPJPY - View Neutral


Support and Resistance:
Look at charts, I'm sure you can fill them in. (aka I'm a lazy *******).

Scenario:
Uptrend beginning to look like it's running out of steam, however same with EJ I've been trying to short this all week. Will play it how the charts look.

I'm definitely playing a short at 1.5000. This will align the 50% fib to 144.50 which will be a decent area to enter a long or a target. YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!


USDCAD- View Bearish Until Daily Support


Support and Resistance:
Look at charts, I'm sure you can fill them in. (aka I'm a lazy *******).

Scenario:
I'm hitting this baby long at 1.8000 then if not the def the daily support. Take a look!

GBPCAD - View Bullish


Support and Resistance:
Look at charts, I'm sure you can fill them in. (aka I'm a lazy *******).

Scenario:
I was short off 1.8400 weeks back, shows that if your patient enough the target hits! Looking for longs into 1.7900 area and a breakout of the downtrend.

Will long off 17550 or 17600 again.

Cable - View Neutral


Support and Resistance:
Look at charts, I'm sure you can fill them in. (aka I'm a lazy *******).

Scenario:
If 1.50 hits this makes 1.47 at 50% and already very strong support (you heard it here first!). Looking for direction, probably only scalping this until it hits an extreme.

EURO - View Neutral


Support and Resistance:
Look at charts, I'm sure you can fill them in. (aka I'm a lazy *******).

Scenario:
Lovely triangle I'm going to play on hourly. I hate when obvious channels trade sideways instead of breaking out.

FTSE - View Neutral


Support and Resistance:
Look at charts, I'm sure you can fill them in. (aka I'm a lazy *******).

Scenario:
Look at the charts.

I must say, those pins that were created on Thursday were too good to be true. Why? It didn't contain a good body at the ends. If you look at the dailies - or even better yet 4hour - you can see once they tanked/rallied it hit s/r and sent it back the same way it was trending. I'll play a break of these s/r and try shorting the highs.

Let me know what you want me to cover, since the first chart is always my best post then it detoriates. Like last week, this was rushed and quite rubbish. Time to trade.

Good trading all.:smart:
​

 

[KillPhil08]

Decided from now on i'll probably put all the infomation into the charts with arrows, easier to skim.