elliot wave question

[putorcall]

hi there, im tracking a formation of the wave and i have a question;
in the attatchment you can see that im waiting for wave 4 to complete, so for this to be a elliott wave does that mean the price CANNOT go lower than wave 1 end, which is 1126.6?
what happens if it trades a little under that price, as in 1125-1126, can this still be clarified as a wave?
next price target is 1140, completing wave 5

 

[putorcall]

hi there, im tracking a formation of the wave and i have a question;
in the attatchment you can see that im waiting for wave 4 to complete, so for this to be a elliott wave does that mean the price CANNOT go lower than wave 1 end, which is 1126.6?
what happens if it trades a little under that price, as in 1125-1126, can this still be clarified as a wave?
next price target is 1140, completing wave 5

ok so now the bar low was 1123, completley breaking the wave 1.
does this mean that this is not a elliot wave and should be disregarded or does the wave account for news; in this case the consumer sentiment falling to 66.6, incurring a sell off and hence bringing it down to that level.
i do however expect prices to revert to the 1140 level next week which would complete wave 5
but i still dont understand if i can have a period of prices in wave 4 that breaks elliott's rules but still be a elliott wave

 

[Trading Fox]

ok so now the bar low was 1123, completley breaking the wave 1.
does this mean that this is not a elliot wave and should be disregarded or does the wave account for news; in this case the consumer sentiment falling to 66.6, incurring a sell off and hence bringing it down to that level.
i do however expect prices to revert to the 1140 level next week which would complete wave 5
but i still dont understand if i can have a period of prices in wave 4 that breaks elliott's rules but still be a elliott wave

Elliott wave in my experience is interesting and perhaps helpful in hindsight but not as a trading system. I've used it for a number of years and while it seems attractive, I've only ever lost money using it. Wave 4 is a horrible wave to trade because you can never quite tell when it has ended (that's if wave 2 was a simple correction). And the W5 is often not that powerful.

The problem you are facing here is to know what the larger count is so you know where the count you produced sits in the larger count.

The rule for EW is that W4 close cannot go lower/higher than W1.

Hope that help but my advice is to use EW as a guide but find a better more reliable trading strategy that you can specify the rules for, back test and measure expectancy for.

Cheers
Henk Vos

 

[JahDave]

I think Trading Fox is giving you some good advice.

I use Elliott Wave analysis daily, on currency charts. Elliott Wave does not give good entry and exit points but it can tell you when wave counts are completing and reversals are impending. I also use candlestick patterns, Fibonacci retracements and extensions, and some technical indicators to give me signals when to enter positions.

Go check out EWT's Thread called "E-mini S&P Elliott Wave Discussion". He is a very good Elliottician and only works with the S&P.

 

[forexkunta]

Elliott Wave Internationals take on this question is that yes, in a heavily leveraged market such as forex, then if all wave counts are intact, then wave 4 can in fact, overlap wave 1. It does not happen often, but it can be accounted for because of the leverage in the markets.
Just make sure that your wave count is valid, and not a correction of some type in a higher time frame.
Kent

hi there, im tracking a formation of the wave and i have a question;
in the attatchment you can see that im waiting for wave 4 to complete, so for this to be a elliott wave does that mean the price CANNOT go lower than wave 1 end, which is 1126.6?
what happens if it trades a little under that price, as in 1125-1126, can this still be clarified as a wave?
next price target is 1140, completing wave 5