Election night potential

[GeorgeTheGreat]

Hi Guys

Failry new member here so go easy on me.

I am contemplating whether to stay up Thursday night and trade the GBP/USD.

I cannot see anything other then a hung parliment, therefore my general feeling is to short the gbp/usd, leading up to the 4/5/6 am result.

What are your thoughts, am looking to place £5,000 into account, and open a £2000 position, what are your thoughts on that ?

Thanks Guys and Good luck to all

 

[jak672]

mate, short £ is the most crowded trade out there - the market's been pricing in a hung parliament for months now, and we could even see a rally on the back of a confirmation of a hung parliament....

 

[meanreversion]

Are you looking to risk 40 pct of your funds on going short cable on election night? Too much risk there.

 

[N Rothschild]

this is all the evidence i need to add to my longs!

 

[meanreversion]

The flipside is that once the Tories get in, they'll do their best to paint a negative picture of the nation's finances, either by revealing the true horror of PPP/PFI, or the unfunded pension liabilities.. and this may weigh on sterling.

Let's be honest, taking a punt on cable on election night is pure gambling.

 

[Countvonaltibar]

It's a tough call George, as someone earlier said these things tend to get priced-in days or weeks before. Personally I think the pound will be in for a tough ride next few months

 

[montmorencyt2w]

I'm afraid I don't agree with the "it's all been priced-in already" argument.

The uncertainty in the build-up to the election (with the festering sore of Europe in the background, which has an impact on UK banks, don't forget), has provided plenty of volatility already and hence plenty of trading opportunities (short, long, whichever way you want to play it; personally I've picked one direction and have stuck to it; that doesn't mean I've decided which way the market is going; it means I trade in the direction I've chosen when I see the opportunities).

These opportunities will continue (I believe) up to and beyond the election.

On the face of it, I certainly wouldn't do exactly what the OP is proposing - election night is leaving it a bit late, or rather, is missing opportunities in the meantime - we don't know the trading experience of the OP (if any), or his personal appetite for risk. So it's an impossible question to answer, as posed, but it provides food for thought.

 

[meanreversion]

We're entering phase 2 of the credit crunch, sovereign risk and eventual default, sorry, restructuring. The UK election could end up being irrelevant. Hang onto your hats.

 

[N Rothschild]

pound showing excellent resilience to the current bloodbath.

 

[meanreversion]

It is ... EUR/GBP coming off nicely. Still some way to go on that pair I reckon.

 

[GeorgeTheGreat]

You owe me an apology, i got it spot on and made a wedge

 

[montmorencyt2w]

You owe me an apology, i got it spot on and made a wedge

Perhaps others were too busy making even more of a wedge on both sterling and the Euro.


Without knowing anything about your trading experience or appetite and capacity for risk, it was difficult to make a meaningful response to your initial posting (although evidently modesty is not something that you let get in your way).
[OK, I have now seen that you are only 17....the brash confidence of youth...sort of understandable, but don't push your luck son].

However, it would be churlish not so acknowledge a win, so, wedge noted.
How much did you actually win? You were upfront about how much you were going to put down, so no point in being shy now.


Before congratulations are in order, it would be interesting to know your entry and exit point(s). Did you also make something out of the subsequent rally and fall, and further rally? What is your next step?

 

[Waterfield]

He shouldn't be trading unless it's a fixed odd's if he's 17.