EIA Weekly Data

[PaddyDublin]

How exactly does the weekly inventory report from the EIA reach the markets?

Having examined the EIA website I can see that they seem to release a substantial set of weekly figures in the form of a spreadsheet or a csv file. Looks like they release it at a precise and particular time each week, yesterday for example it was at 16:00 in my time zone - GMT.

It would take some time - perhaps 30 seconds - to manually download and manipulate the file from the EIA website. But yet the oil price in the market tends to react instantly once the clock turns 16:00. So I'm wondering how that can be? And I'm thinking there must be some faster way of getting the EIA release figures rather than the manual way I described above.

So does anyone know what the faster way is? Are the key figures released somewhere else by the EIA such as Reuters or Bloomberg? I am trying to understand how the market can react so instantaneously to a set of figures that require 30 seconds of work before being actionable.

 

[timsk]

. . . So does anyone know what the faster way is? Are the key figures released somewhere else by the EIA such as Reuters or Bloomberg? I am trying to understand how the market can react so instantaneously to a set of figures that require 30 seconds of work before being actionable.

Hi Paddy,
This question was addressed recently on another thread with regard to Nonfarm payrolls. Unfortunately, I can't find it!

From memory, as you suggest, the news is released to the likes of Bloomberg and Reuters. It's essentially just the numerical figures that the market reacts to in the first instance, as opposed to any supporting statement. As you rightly say, no one could read and react to written material that quickly. The numbers are near enough instant, enabling the algo's and traders around the world to buy or sell within nano seconds - hence the very rapid reaction.

I was watching Brent Crude at the time of yesterday's announcement and there's no safe way (that I know of) to take advantage of it. Often, but not always, the market will edge very slightly in the direction of the move in the minutes leading up to the announcement. So, anyone who positioned themselves long at 3.59PM (London time) will have done well. However, if you get it wrong, stops are unlikely to be triggered and the corresponding loss will be huge.
Tim.

 

[PaddyDublin]

Thanks timsk.

I knew there must have been a way to get a head start on the EIA figures. Good old Reuters and Bloomberg which I can't afford!

I usually do make a few quid on the EIA releases. As you described I wait until I see the candlestick move sharply and then I jump on board. It usually works but it means that due to my late entry I end up pissing away 2/3 of the value of the movement. Maybe that's greed on my part though and I should be looking on it differently.

On Thursday last I missed out because they released the figure at 16:00 instead of the usual 15:30. I was sitting there waiting for the candlestick to move at 15:30 and nothing. Then later in the day I realised what had happened. Rookie mistake.

 

[timsk]

I knew there must have been a way to get a head start on the EIA figures. Good old Reuters and Bloomberg which I can't afford!. . .

Hi Paddy,
If I've understood you correctly, what you're doing is not what I outlined in my previous post. It sounds to me as if you're jumping on board as soon as you see the raction to the EIA numbers and your thinking is that if you can get the news nano seconds sooner (than you currently are), that you'll be able to get on board fractionally quicker. To do that, you'll not only need a Reuters or Bllomberg feed, but you'll also need state of the art kit with a lightning fast connection. All very expensive. Even then, unless you're trading actual futures via a direct market access (DMA) account, it won't do you much good because your spread betting or CFD broker can still choose the level and speed at which they fill your order.

All in all, it's a game best left to the pros, IMO. So, you either leave well alone and trade the reaction to the news in the following minutes, hours and days - or position yourself ahead of it and be prepared to take a (big) hit if the market moves against you. Of the two options, the former is by far the safest and what most members here would recommend. One very common phenomenon is for price to revert back to roughly where it was prior to the news announcement; if not the same day, then over the course or the next day or two. In the case of Brent Crude, you'll see that this is exactly what happened on Friday. That's a possible alternative idea to explore if trading news announcements is what floats your boat.
Tim.

 

[tradeless]

Any prediction on USO price range this week?
USO will down -0.5% tomorrow according to this http://www.smarttrading.club/?operation=showSimilarDays&ticker=USO