edge init

ChocolateDigestive said:
of course you have to be in the game to 'win' it. this doesn't mean that if you are in the game that you are going to win it does it. i think you logic is mixed up BJ.

Dont you get that? If someone says you must do A to get B that is not the same as saying if you do A you will get B. Do you get me BJ? unless you are on the wind up in which case, you got me.
Click to expand...

You need to think about where B comes from. I know where B comes from. I am not sure others do.
 
Will try to get the thread back on track without the mentally challenged disrupting things (the most polite way I could put it)

I was having a read through of the Blair Hull interview last night in new market wizards. Of course I bought the book from amazon although some people say it is available on illegal download.

I enjoyed his interview as he hardly talked about trading to begin with it was all about his early days as a blackjack card counter. Some great stuff there. Points that stood out:

*He spent 5 days a month in Las Vegas hour after hour playing blacjack just for a 1 to 2% edge. Wow that is some effort for such a small edge. He turned $120 into $10,000 over the space of 2 years using this edge.

*He talks about the importance of how many times you can apply the edge. I think about whether i would prefer an 90% 1:1 edge that I only get the opportunity to apply once a month or whether I would prefer a 55% 1:! edge that I can apply 1000 times a month. hmmmm

*He talks about how and why he played in a team. Very interesting, they pooled their bankrolls which allowed them ride out a greater variance of results but also allowed them to conceal the 'big player'. Pooling came with it's own problems though when they found one of their team was skimming off the top.

*He talks about the edge still be available in Casinos. He said the casinos knew people could play with an edge but they also knew most people ( i think he mentioned 499/500) would not have the discipline and staying power to take advantage of it.

That last point was telling for me in that you could give most people a solid edge but they most likely would not have the discipline and staying power to take advantage of it.
 
ChocolateDigestive said:
That last point was telling for me in that you could give most people a solid edge but they most likely would not have the discipline and staying power to take advantage of it.
Click to expand...
Solid edge and urge to gamble can coexist if your edge produces enough profit to satisfy your gambling needs.
 
ChocolateDigestive said:
Will try to get the thread back on track without the mentally challenged disrupting things (the most polite way I could put it)

I was having a read through of the Blair Hull interview last night in new market wizards. Of course I bought the book from amazon although some people say it is available on illegal download.

I enjoyed his interview as he hardly talked about trading to begin with it was all about his early days as a blackjack card counter. Some great stuff there. Points that stood out:

*He spent 5 days a month in Las Vegas hour after hour playing blacjack just for a 1 to 2% edge. Wow that is some effort for such a small edge. He turned $120 into $10,000 over the space of 2 years using this edge.

*He talks about the importance of how many times you can apply the edge. I think about whether i would prefer an 90% 1:1 edge that I only get the opportunity to apply once a month or whether I would prefer a 55% 1:! edge that I can apply 1000 times a month. hmmmm

*He talks about how and why he played in a team. Very interesting, they pooled their bankrolls which allowed them ride out a greater variance of results but also allowed them to conceal the 'big player'. Pooling came with it's own problems though when they found one of their team was skimming off the top.

*He talks about the edge still be available in Casinos. He said the casinos knew people could play with an edge but they also knew most people ( i think he mentioned 499/500) would not have the discipline and staying power to take advantage of it.

That last point was telling for me in that you could give most people a solid edge but they most likely would not have the discipline and staying power to take advantage of it.
Click to expand...

You mean card counting.
 
neil324 said:
Don't they beat or kill you for doing that though.

Watched a film about it recently forget it's name, Kevin Spacey was in it.
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21. good film.

PS - I very much like the post about the oil trader doing the spread trades.

I personally think that nobody on this site has what I would define as an 'edge' (like the oil trader taking non-directional trades based on information not many are privvy too)
 
neil324 said:
Don't they beat or kill you for doing that though.

Watched a film about it recently forget it's name, Kevin Spacey was in it.
Click to expand...

I am not suggesting that you try it. I have seen that film too, I don't think they would beat you up these days, I have sat in Casinos in London before and counted, one time the dealer said to me 'what's the matter lost the count' lol. I think it's harder these days anyway as the casinos tend to use more decks and shuffle up a lot besides a 1% or 2% is pitiful compared to the edges that can be found in the markets.
 
ChocolateDigestive said:
If you think you have an edge how did you come about it? Not asking for details of the edge just how you came about it?
Click to expand...

Ok, back to topic.

Practical experience, aka loosing money aka paying DIY tuition fees, and watching youtube videos and actually getting what they are saying is a killer combo. The edge comes when you finally understood what the market is. Then making money is a foregone conclusion, even if there remains rough edges to work off. Now, what is the market ? The market is like the clouds, but it rains pips.
 
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piggybridges said:
21. good film.

PS - I very much like the post about the oil trader doing the spread trades.

I personally think that nobody on this site has what I would define as an 'edge' (like the oil trader taking non-directional trades based on information not many are privvy too)
Click to expand...

I wouldn't say that I think there are a few darksiders lurking who have a solid edge. I did ask said trader about the information they have, obv they have an army of analysts but they also have an interbroker voice system thing, the markets he was in there were only a few major players and they were all hooked up listening.

I suppose if you know a certain company wants to hedge a position you can use that information to your advantage. Just the same as if a certain country/region buys a shed load more of something this will have knock on effects.
 
ChocolateDigestive said:
I wouldn't say that I think there are a few darksiders lurking who have a solid edge. I did ask said trader about the information they have, obv they have an army of analysts but they also have an interbroker voice system thing, the markets he was in there were only a few major players and they were all hooked up listening.

I suppose if you know a certain company wants to hedge a position you can use that information to your advantage. Just the same as if a certain country/region buys a shed load more of something this will have knock on effects.
Click to expand...

This is the type of thing I'd call an edge. Anything else and you'd better get your probability calculator out cos ain't no edge in looking at chart, whatever you decide to b4stardise it with.
 
Shakone said:
Choc Dig, what is your answer to your own question?
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ok. I do believe I am trading with an edge but I think where I currently am is I am still building confidence in the edge, I am trying to build consistency.

Where do you get an edge? I guess you either use someone else's or modify their edge to suit you. Or design your own. I believe it is important to always refine your edge and monitor it and if possible have multiple edges, if one breaks down you have a couple left.

Trendie already mentioned Street Smarts and the holy grail 'set up'. It's just a simple thing with ADX defining trend, moving average to define distance of pullback and a trigger candle. I have no idea if it is an edge. I would make the point that most people will never know as they dont have the patience and discipline to live test it on 10,20,50,100,500 trades.

I do believe it is possible to trade profitably without an edge just from the gut however the traders experience and discipline are probably in themselves forming the edge.

For me the perfect edge would be something that I can trade maybe 10 times in a 4 to 5 hour trading session with a high strike rate on a rough 1:1 basis. I dont currently have this edge! If I did I would probably be busy behind the screens spanking the hell out of it. lol.
 
scose-no-doubt said:
This is the type of thing I'd call an edge. Anything else and you'd better get your probability calculator out cos ain't no edge in looking at chart, whatever you decide to b4stardise it with.
Click to expand...

anything else and you haven't got your probability calculator out you are in trouble.
 
BeginnerJoe said:
Ok, back to topic.

Practical experience, aka loosing money aka paying DIY tuition fees, and watching youtube videos and actually getting what they are saying is a killer combo. The edge comes when you finally understood what the market is. Then making money is a foregone conclusion, even if there remains rough edges to work off. Now, what is the market ? The market is like the clouds, but it rains pips.
Click to expand...

:) I guess supreme confidence might be an edge - mind you Leeson had it :devilish:
 
scose-no-doubt said:
This is the type of thing I'd call an edge. Anything else and you'd better get your probability calculator out cos ain't no edge in looking at chart, whatever you decide to b4stardise it with.
Click to expand...

Not when you look at it, no.
 
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