E-Mini SP 500

[Xymox]

...

volatility fan, but energy just is coming from positional biases being wiped out. The last move, should continue.(downward) Stubborn exiters will propel the market down.

 

[Xymox]

floor traders/pit traders in this situation can press the market...a lot of retail still didn't exit, the move was too swift.

 

[Xymox]

price reverts close to the 80 as soon as support or perceived support is hit, gives time for another trade placement on a retrace.

 

[Xymox]

short 33.50 SL 41 TP EOD or 26

I try to keep R:R 1:1 and adjust position size.

 

[Xymox]

SL mod..35...this SL shouldn't hit if the trade is still good.

 

[Xymox]

see how the MA's approach each other.

 

[Xymox]

bond market.. acting favorably...had a good auction today. Should press equities down.

 

[Xymox]

with enough mental energy see how close the MA's get.

edit: closed out the trade for commission losses. That last tick move should have been downward.

 

[Xymox]

basically its a'forced trade' in the market place, contagion/scarcity heuristics battling it out. Usually money is made easier then that, and nothing should be forced when enough volatility has persistance.

I don't mind scratching trades, when the tics don't move as implied.

 

[Xymox]

see the last tic move just now would have stopped me out, when you don't see what you want, why stay in the market? Its a mistake traders make, trying to force or wish or hope something happens.

bonds giving up some gains now.

 

[saxon22]

I have ben there and done that!

 

[Xymox]

there is also a 'heartbeat' of confirmation to the trade. Once a trade is placed, there is a predefined time that a trader inately senses, would be the cutting point. Its similar to time stop, but on a second to minute basis.

 

[Xymox]

35.50...the other question becomes, if I didn't see what I wanted to see with my position bias, why not flip the trade and position bias?...

somedays you can.

37.25, see how easier it was for the market to move up, instead of down. If I didn't cut the SL from 41 to 35, and then scratched the trade, I would be looking at a greater possible point loss on the SL, even though position size was adjusted for the wider stop.

 

[Xymox]

38.25

explosive chart pattern. Implies retest of recent highs of 52.

 

[Pillips]

Volatility Channel

So far, today has traced out your volatility channel template perfectly.

 

[Xymox]

So far, today has traced out your volatility channel template perfectly.

yes,

differing market dynamics, hallmark of volatility. I like unidirectional volatility.

1) bond auction led to arb selling spooz futures
2) BS news about buyout...

created the fan.

 

[Xymox]

I will be selling 52's when we get up there. Weekly highs and lows are inefficiency zones, that should be faded, for a swing trade. A more conservative approach is selling 62's and buying 57's.

 

[Xymox]

heres another volatility fan that played out. This occurred in the june contract in ES a few months back, it was posted well in advance before the dashed ending move. The move was completed with it breaking down, to the low 1500's.

 

[Xymox]

vol channel still going strong... I'm flying out tomm, wont be around till next week. Goodluck everyone.

 

[Pillips]

Fans a Plenty

There have been a few of these expanding patterns (roughly defined) over the last few days. All have resolved to downside. Can lightning strike again is $64k question.