E-Mini SP 500

Xymox

Active member
Sep 25, 2007
834
10
28
Virgin Islands
#44
I shorted the ES at 1538.75. Would you have done the same? and if not then why not? and when would you have sho it if at all?
over the years you tend to look for the easy trades, the ability to see when money is on the ground waiting to be picked up, comes with time.

the small scalping trades become a headache. If I truely scalped, I can hit a W:L ratio of 80-90% in any market. But its extremely taxing on the system and wears you out.

its possible to obtain the same results with swing trading, its just a matter of adjusting amount of target and stop loss, which generally become wider.

as for the trade, no I would not have placed it, its working off a spring from 1520, upper end of channel is 1550, lower end 1490, but actually higher when you look at the daily chart since there is a inverse head n shoulders, that spring is dangerous since the market can gap up and break highs and never look back.

I look at:

1) 60 minute trend
2) overall direction of MA's
3) MA's crosses and violations
4) whether price is above or below open
5) whether price is above or below yesterdays high or low
6) whether price is above weekly high or low

its all a matter of increasing probability for you in terms of the trade, high probability trades, are usully contagion heuristic based. Contagion heuristic is a fear/greed trade as it enfolds. Most are too shocked at what the market is doing to take advantage of it, if they are not in the market at the moment.
 
Last edited:

Xymox

Active member
Sep 25, 2007
834
10
28
Virgin Islands
#45
if your scalping it entails smaller stoploss and target points. Those small increments can be within the noise of price action and by just pure random price movement can be hit. It also means your using much more size to compensate for the small target points.

it can be dangerous situation if mentally your not there. Sometimes a price stop can turn into a time stop and a time stop into no stop at all.
 
Apr 23, 2006
27
0
11
Jamaica, New York
#46
I look at:

1) 60 minute trend
2) overall direction of MA's
3) MA's crosses and violations
4) whether price is above or below open
5) whether price is above or below yesterdays high or low
6) whether price is above weekly high or low

OK

1. bullish
2. bullish
3,no major crosses on MAs
4. above
5. no
6. yes

Now how do I decode all this? Or what are the answers for a setup that is worth the risk.
 

Xymox

Active member
Sep 25, 2007
834
10
28
Virgin Islands
#47
I look at:

1) 60 minute trend
2) overall direction of MA's
3) MA's crosses and violations
4) whether price is above or below open
5) whether price is above or below yesterdays high or low
6) whether price is above weekly high or low

OK

1. bullish
2. bullish
3,no major crosses on MAs
4. above
5. no
6. yes

Now how do I decode all this? Or what are the answers for a setup that is worth the risk.
I generally take this survey around 1:30 EST USA time. Plus there needs to be energy or momentum in the price for that session. If its a quiet day, it can be a mean reverting day and if its a volatile day, usually breakouts tend to take place. Today just seems like a quiet day. The MM's are working price up into upper zones before next weeks nonfarm payrolls. I think we will see Dow 14K before we start heading down again. Path of least resistance is still up.