The DOW This Week...25/02....01/03

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Another great day. After a rapid rise on open, confirming Friday's Bull Pennant and the resultant target of +120 (10,180). Then things looked decidedly flat, having all the trappings of a down day. The bottom line was a long consolidation period, til 6:30 and then an excellent breakout when CCI flew from 30 to 129 literally in 2 ticks, to indicate the next rally. Given the prior period was a pennant, the target was 10,190, but it fell short at 10,171. The elliot waves up came a little closer to target, having called the top earlier as 175. I was pleased at being just 4 points off.The actual top was a dificult call, the market clearly in no mood for selling. There were divergences, but not clear cut and not confirmed. Getting out on the 1 min trend line break of RSI and CCI gave 164 while out on RSI<60 and CCI<100 gave 158 a few ticks later.
No clear indication of direction tomorrow. We've hit the rising trend resistance spot on, so there could now be a drop back to up trend support at 9830 ish.... On the other hand, Checking EOD Fib points, 76% retrace from the top at 10,350 to the bottom at 9456 is 10,136. Very interesting point. Today's rally took us through this point, hit trend resistance and bounced right off the 76% to close up 9 points from there at 145.

So, no second guessing tonight, but I'll hedge to more up... The critical test will be holding 136. We still have the possibility of a continuation of the triangle breakout which happened much sooner than I thought ( from last week). I would have liked to have seen a drop to support first, before breaking, but there you are, we got it and that's that. No complaints. The Triangle target is 10,350 area and will take some getting there.We've had 3 slope changes, which is getting towards running out of steam. There's a nice triangle forming on RSI, but I can't see that breaking without some real strength. Mind you, if it does, hold on to your hats. More likely it will fail, I think.
Lots of options, let's see how it pans out . Tomorrow will tell....
100MA :10K. Support : 136,064. 032, 10K, 9964. Resistance: 10,170, 10,264, 10,350.( 10,170 is long term EOD resistance)

Post script - I have revised the initial triangle breakout target downwards to 10,266, and thereafter to 10,350....
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Well, the 136 failed, and drop we did, like a stone, without any news ( as far as I can tell). Having pulled up at 036, the rest of the day struggled to go anywhere....wallowing around the 100MA , extending out by 30 points along the way. In general terms though, an up channel 50 points wide was formed, with a weak rally towards the end of the day, gaining some 75 points, coming from CCI>100 nad breaking away from 20 points above the 100MA. You could have been forgiven for thinking the final pennat that formed on the 1 min chart would have led to a further breakout right at the close....instead if failed, to close 17 points off the bottom of the pennant at 10,115. I'm hopeful that this weakness and failure was due to uncertainty and the close sell-off, as a pennant failure is unusual to say the least. If the formation were to be taken up tomorrow, the target is 10,225, getting on for my estimate of the triangle break mentioned yesterday...Even though today was a down day, we're still in an up channel. Break to the upside at 10,140, break to the downside at 10,070... Support and resistance seen today at 00,32 and 64 levels again.
100MA : 10,064. Support : 10,100,10,068,10,032. Resistance: 10,132,10,155,64 and 85...
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Well we got the pennant break to 225 and a bit ..to top out at 255. There was a nice tringle formation in the offing, but finally failed to the downside, leading to a 200 point drop. The bottom was not too hard to call, being a nice double bottom. this was followed by a nice rally into the close, to finish at 127, just a few points above the 100MA and 38% fib retrace.Although there was a big drop today, we are still in the major up trend 125 point wide channel, with a perfect bounce off the support line. Given that , there is no reason to think anything else other than the trend remains in force. So up tomorrow....and still on target for 350..alyhough 250 will be a tough nut to crack.Strong hor. support at 10,050.
100MA: 10124. Support : 10,100, 10,050,10,032. Resistance: 10,150,10,200, 10,250. Note 10,250 is strong EOD resistance.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Today has signalled the end of the uptrend.... The open was encouraging,attempting to make resistance at 250 but failed to make even the horizontal resistance at 250, yet alone the uptrend res.line.The failure was pre-empted by a clear Head & Shoulders top at 238 and a target fall to around 200 was quickly devoured , stopping at 160. Then followed a double bottom "W" of 160 that just about made target.(210). From then on it was downhill all the way to 104, but not before testing 164 SR level several times. Most of the day was spent whipsawing around the 100MA and left very little to bank on until towards the end...Four clear changes in the downtrend slope suggests that there isn't going to be much more down, but I wouldnt bet on it...
The major up trend support is broken. There is a bear triangle top.There is a new down trend support line formed, that says support is at 10K... Major horizontal support at 10064. 38% retrace at 10056, 50% is 9995...
100MA: 10151. Support: 10,100,10,064,10,032, 10K. Resistance 10,132,10,164 10,200.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Nice day today.....Pity about yesterday. Still I did say there wa a 4x slope change that indicates a reversal...Just need to add it to my data base of how to resolve conflicts.Straight from the off we were up and away with a lot of points to be had, flying through resistance at 250 and finally at 350, to close the day at just a few points off HOD at 368 (HOD 374). I've never seen a rally this strong, RSI and CCI reaching 85 and 405! Again I was fortunate enoght to be in the chat room at the time and called the break spot on again, resoring my confidence battering that I had the day before. I also called the top to perfection at 366 and most traded substantial gains off that.Nice to get it right... :)
Moday should be a good day for the bulls.....
100MA : 10228. Support : 264,300,364. Resistance: who knows....:)
 

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