The DOW This Week...12/11- 17/11

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Back to business. Last week I suggested onwards to 9600, "barring bad news". That is now history, and the markets fully recoved to be "as you were". We can draw a line through the interruption from Friday to today's open, and it's as if nothing happend. All I will say, is that 9420 and 9530 have added to the strength of those support values.
Today, we moved on up to my expected 9750, and I see no reason not to attack resistance at 9850.The 100 MA has dropped away from where it should be, and gives an artificially low value at 9640. A more "realistic value would be around 9680....We finished today on a virtual HOD, at 9750 , just 5 points off the actual High Of the Day.
RSI and CCI is strong and there is no reason for the rally not to continue.
Next resistance up is 9850, with support to be found at 9710,9660,9610.
We made the expanding traingle wedge, eventually, and now we could look forward to the next mark up which will be 10,100-10,200...that's if it all goes to plan.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Another good day today, and more to come I think.The suggested resistance at 9850 was tested twice today, and I think will be broken tomorrow.
An instant open to 9856 was a good start,but as so often in the recent past, it was quickly knocked back to the open to 9747. This was followed by a rally to 9800, and then a period of consolidation, finally closing at 9823, up 72.
New support now at 9750/70 and 9810, although weak.
The overall picture seems to be getting weaker, with indicators struggling to make higher highs, with respect to the price. The overall up trend still looks very strong though, following it up all the way from 31/10, albeit with transitory up spikes and the "extraordinary" drop on Tuesday can be ignored. There is still no clear signs of any negative divergence, so no pullbacks yet. Tomorrow should be another good day, the US having released excellent retail figures (+7%). Expect the same again- futs up , maybe +100,and a pullback to normality and off we go.
Assuming that, and all being well, the magic 10,000 will be the target.The higher we go without a pullback, the more unstable it gets. Support is now very thinly spread,and I think when a pullback comes, it will be substantial.
The one thing that has not been seen for quite a while, is the characteristic tripple increasing slope of an up trend,leading to a major correction.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
DOW EOD Breakout Bull wedge at 9850......supporting further rises, unless it's a fake. Next resistance up on a "closing" basis is 10,250.Major support at 9600.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
another up day, closing up 47, after a long struggle.The new support at 9810 was quickly tested and off to 9900 for a double top.The base between has given a new minor support value of 9864.This area was tested 10 times or so during later trading, the close just managing to finish 5 points up from that, much to my surprise.There is now a strong suggestion that the uptrend is coming to an end. We have not managed to move away from the 100MA for a few days now (08/11). Most indicators are now showing downtrending negative divergence, except that the close moved the indicators up to break the downtrend. A mixed bag of signals and no clear direction. We have made higher highs and higher lows today,so on balence, I guess it's up.
The 100 MA is 9801 and still tracking the overall uptrend, although the price is gently pulling back towards it.The uptrend line from 31/10 got broken tonight and I expected a tank, but it didn't happen.That happend at 19:00 and 9850 and the close ended up just back above that line by a couple of points.
Pivotal point for tomorrow is around 9850. If that holds, we can still move on, if it fails, I think the trend will, at best, be taking a pause. A close above 9900 will also be significant...
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Another mixed bag day, and I'm torn between Bull and Bear. Intraday, on balance, is very bearish, with a distinct rouded top about 9900.The saving grace was the very strong close( relatively) at 9861. I think the Bulls took the "bull by the horns" ,as it were. Considering It's Friday close, and we all want to gome home without fear of a surprise monday morning. There was a lot of buying for the weekend going on- showing confidence.
There was a good start, and plenty of volatility, going straight to resistance at 9900, then a roller coaster to support at 9850, 9900 again, back to 9850, up to 9895- the market just didn't know what to do.Then suddenly, the dinner time blues set in and it looked like game set and match for the rise, tanking to 9793. The Bears must have been rubbing their hands. BUT something happened that I have not seen for a long time- a strong steady rally, with classic elliot waves up from 7:45 til the close- and not a sign of weakness on the way.
The way I see it is this. Looking at the NAZ earlier this week, I saw a revaluation of the uptrend slope by 35/40 points.This would equate to a revaluation on the dow of some 200 points on the dow.There is a line on the chart labelled "revaluation" and this "looks" right. I'ts uncanny that it's lower point is from the collapse on Monday...
I suggested earlier in the week that there were signs of weakness and I think these last two days have confirmed that.What we have had is an effective retrace or pause/consolidation.The price action has reverted back to touching the 100MA line as it did on 6/11 and 9/11, following a re-trace.The 100MA is now at 9826 and above support values. The downtrend on RSI and CCI was broken just before the close today, adding to the prospects of a continued rally.
Support is still at 9850 and around 9800, with resistance at 9900. This resistance value has now become a major turning point. If the DOW can break that,having tested it six times in the recent past, It will be difficult for it to drop through it again.
The EOD candles confirms weakness, and next week will be the turning point I feel. If today was consolidation, then we go on.....Your call.
 

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