DOW - ES Charts 13/01 - 17/01

[ChartMan]

Good solid start to the week, but I was expecting the drop to support.Now, I can't figure whether this has the legs to break out from here. Anyway, one bonus is that the range of uncertainty has now narrowed. I get the feeling that this will now fail, having tested 8850 briefly and rapidly failed .....Still, tomorrow is another day and we have to trade what we see. The Bull triangle hasn't failed yet, but we're getting towards the apex and that brings uncertainty.
The plus side? The price stayed above the 100MA all day. The down side? RSI hasn't completed it's expected move to 20-25.
In a bull market though, a drop from RSI 46 to 20 -25 may only mean a drop in price of some 20 points and such a drop takes us to either of the support trend lines. We'll just have to wait and see how it pans out tomorrow.

 

[ChartMan]

ES vol chart

 

[ChartMan]

ES with CCI and RSI

 

[ChartMan]

Still no sign of a serious breakout, bar closing at HOD. We dipped to 30 on RSI without falling out of the Sky so we're lookin good.Uptrend support still holds and the 100MA was again not breached by any significance. Even the open drop didn't make 20 below the 100MA.
Having said all that, it isn't a convincing breakout. Tomorrow will tell I think.We either drop or fly.Maybe we'll find support at 8800. Strange how this is unresolved. I guess it just reflects the market- undecided - one way or the other. So greater care is needed I think.

 

[ChartMan]

ES Vol Chart

 

[ChartMan]

ES Chart. Multiple RS switches giving confidence to the onwards and upwards brigade.Nice divergent bottom at 926 in the later session. Holding up at 929 after hours. Plenty of whipsawing in the early session made for difficult trading, especially on SB's.

 

[mmillar]

ignore

 

[ChartMan]

And indeed , care was needed! Following the pre market, one could have been forgiven for thinking that we were up and away. Unfortunately, as soon as the market opened, it had a different idea. 8800 support went without so much as a goodbye and I guess the thoughts must have been would 8700 hold.....In any event, it didn't get there, coming off about 20 points short of the mark. Tomorrow? I'll do a Mr. Mooms..... and throw the dice.
Could be we are at the bottom of a channel, on support.....

 

[ChartMan]

ES Vol chart. Nice easy run below the 100MA with 2 point stops just about keeping you in to the bottom.Then it got difficult....

 

[ChartMan]

ES with CCI and RSI.

 

[ChartMan]

Just a quicky tonight as I've been out....... Doesn't look like there's going to be anymore upside here, but notice the positive divergence across the last two lows....

 

[ChartMan]

The drop continued, with the well recognised 4 slope change showing today. So is this the bottom of this fall? Coild be. Or is it one mother of a Bear Flag?A bear flag gives a target of 8200, and if it's a pullback to the rally then the target is 9100. No divergences though.

 

[ChartMan]

ES vol Chart.

 

[ChartMan]

ES Chart with CCI and RSI