Dow 2009

rathcoole_exile said:
embarrassing childhood accident ? :D
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:LOL::LOL::LOL: Can't remember much about childhood but I've had a few accidents like that more recently mate and at my age you can't wash away the memories:eek::eek::eek:

PS Oranges move the bowels guys beware. Man of great experience here... :cheesy:
 
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Atilla said:
:LOL::LOL::LOL: Don't know about childhood but I've had a few accidents like that more recently mate and at my age you can't wash away the memories:eek::eek::eek:

PS Oranges move the bowels guys beware. Man of great experience here... :cheesy:
Click to expand...

whole oranges?

you dirty dirty boy.
 
FWIW, for Fri17th, I'm looking to .. flip the channel between 8120 & 8005.

Genics said:
sorry did someone say you could enter my thread rath? :p
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a 20 point short followed within an hour by one that's already at least 35 points with more to come.

apologies Genics, I can see why you wouldn't want me here, showing you up :p
 
KUTERO said:
critical area..8282
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Well if it doesn't boil over tonight, I'd bet my pension next week we kick the bucket on the DOW and it dives through a hole on the ground... :sneaky:

I too think the banks profits and all the GREAT news is fabricated... Ha ha... Pull the other one its got bells on it... :cheesy:
 
kuerto, not to be a dick..but cash market charts dont mean **** in my opinion..they dont show the true levels that are being traded out of hours.
 
hanging man on the weekly time frame, down we go
 

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Genics said:
kuerto, not to be a dick..but cash market charts dont mean **** in my opinion..they dont show the true levels that are being traded out of hours.
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What if you are not a dick and you don't trade out of hours like some people??? :cheesy:
 
The dow is really struggling with the area of previous congestion I detailed in an earlier post(641).

Lets take a look at the chart and the the last 4 trading days.

1. A down day closing on the lows on a marked increase in the volume, increase in supply.

2. An up day which was marked down beyond the lows of the previous 2 days rallying to close on it's highs, BUT, the volume is less than the previous 3 days and price has been unable to take out the high and close of the previous 3 days.

3. The weakness is now confirmed, an up day which attempts to penetrate the resistance line (detailed in a previous post 641) closing off the highs. The volume is less than the previous 4 days, bullish bars don't look like this, there is a lack of demand to the upside.

4. This is a weak bar, a narrow range to the day closing in the middle and below the resistance line. what brings this bar to life is the increase in the volume. The volume is healthy, not low and not excessive. So we have a narrow range (high-low) with an increase in the volume and a failure to push through a resistance line, something is potentially capping that move, supply.

In my opinion this market now looks weak and I would be very cautious of looking to the long side. The prevous area of resistance to the left (see previous posts) is going to require a substantial effort to get past. I expect next week to be down, but as with any liquid market the dynamics can change very quickly which is what makes this fun.

Happy trading and have a good weekend.
 

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Slapshot said:
The dow is really struggling with the area of previous congestion I detailed in an earlier post(641).

Lets take a look at the chart and the the last 4 trading days.

1. A down day closing on the lows on a marked increase in the volume, increase in supply.

2. An up day which was marked down beyond the lows of the previous 2 days rallying to close on it's highs, BUT, the volume is less than the previous 3 days and price has been unable to take out the high and close of the previous 3 days.

3. The weakness is now confirmed, an up day which attempts to penetrate the resistance line (detailed in a previous post 641) closing off the highs. The volume is less than the previous 4 days, bullish bars don't look like this, there is a lack of demand to the upside.

4. This is a weak bar, a narrow range to the day closing in the middle and below the resistance line. what brings this bar to life is the increase in the volume. The volume is healthy, not low and not excessive. So we have a narrow range (high-low) with an increase in the volume and a failure to push through a resistance line, something is potentially capping that move, supply.

In my opinion this market now looks weak and I would be very cautious of looking to the long side. The prevous area of resistance to the left (see previous posts) is going to require a substantial effort to get past. I expect next week to be down, but as with any liquid market the dynamics can change very quickly which is what makes this fun.

Happy trading and have a good weekend.
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I like your analysis my friend

different perspective, keep it up

I'm an avid reader

what would you say to the following formula chaps

low volume = lack of conviction
 
wallstreet1928 said:
I like your analysis my friend

different perspective, keep it up

I'm an avid reader

what would you say to the following formula chaps

low volume = lack of conviction
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Thank you for your comments.

Low volume represents a lack of activity (buying or selling), where it appears on the chart is what makes it important. You can have weak bars and strong bars on low volume.
 
Atilla said:
What if you are not a dick and you don't trade out of hours like some people??? :cheesy:
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you dont need to be trading it, but futures can move ALOT out of hours and often test key support/restiance before the cash opens which will never show up on a cash market chart. trust me look at futures..at the end of the day you cant even trade a cash chart can you? if people wana trade the dow index, they trade futures... remembver futubes basically lead the cash market, thats why there called futures :)
 
Slapshot said:
The dow is really struggling with the area of previous congestion I detailed in an earlier post(641).

Lets take a look at the chart and the the last 4 trading days.

1. A down day closing on the lows on a marked increase in the volume, increase in supply.

2. An up day which was marked down beyond the lows of the previous 2 days rallying to close on it's highs, BUT, the volume is less than the previous 3 days and price has been unable to take out the high and close of the previous 3 days.

3. The weakness is now confirmed, an up day which attempts to penetrate the resistance line (detailed in a previous post 641) closing off the highs. The volume is less than the previous 4 days, bullish bars don't look like this, there is a lack of demand to the upside.

4. This is a weak bar, a narrow range to the day closing in the middle and below the resistance line. what brings this bar to life is the increase in the volume. The volume is healthy, not low and not excessive. So we have a narrow range (high-low) with an increase in the volume and a failure to push through a resistance line, something is potentially capping that move, supply.

In my opinion this market now looks weak and I would be very cautious of looking to the long side. The prevous area of resistance to the left (see previous posts) is going to require a substantial effort to get past. I expect next week to be down, but as with any liquid market the dynamics can change very quickly which is what makes this fun.

Happy trading and have a good weekend.
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Very interesting post Slapshot but similar to Kutero's diags I reckon there is indecision in the markets.

Being devils advocate here - if we look it through bullish spectacles this is merely some expected congestion around 8000 and before a major breakout beyond 8200 occurs.

After 7500 point drop in the Dow from 14000 to 6500 - Fib retrace to 8200 is approx 23.6%.

If the Dow turns down again then the falls are likely to be shallow imo. Perhaps 7800 followed by another rise to 9000 regions.

The other scenario is we continue the upward move to 9000s now with a more serious test of the lows around 6500 several months ahead when 4th Qtr earnings come out bad based on poor 2009 trading results.

I think the market is fixed and manipulated and thus next week we'll continue the rises as it seems most people are expecting the Dow to fall. I'd reckon (being contrarian here) we have one more week upside with a test of 7800s perhaps in May.
 
Atilla said:
I think the market is fixed and manipulated and thus next week we'll continue the rises as it seems most people are expecting the Dow to fall. I'd reckon (being contrarian here) we have one more week upside with a test of 7800s perhaps in May.
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It depends 'how' the market rises.

If we continue to rise on falling volume then the rise is false and the pros are trying to pull as many unsuspecting traders into the wrong side of the market.

If we push through the old trading range to the left on a heavy increase in volume then the move will be positive and we'll have a possible suport/resistance swap at the areas I mentioned before.

At the moment, price and volume are not indicating sustained higher prices, but as with any liquid market the dynamics can change very quickly. Each day and intraday will hold the clues.
 
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