Dow 2008

[Grey1]

We talking US or UK here?

I am talking about US,,, IT was a rather strange rumour as It would be very difficult to imagine another rate cut. I mean we are lucky if we donot get a rate hike let alone cut,,

Grey1

 

[Atilla]

I am talking about US,,, IT was a rather strange rumour as It would be very difficult to imagine another rate cut. I mean we are lucky if we donot get a rate hike let alone cut,,

Grey1

I reckon 51% drop of .25% and 49% for no change.

Inflation is apparently around 2.6% but housing and employment figures pretty weak.

If I was Bernanke (so far he has done well in his responses other than totally underestimate the situation imo) my words would be:

The upside risks to inflation due to some easing of the oil price we feel are outweighed by weakening labour and housing market and we therefore propose a quarter percent reduction to prevent a retraction in economic growth and activity.

 

[cu20052003]

US and UK ( exact opposite is true )

Hi to All and Sundry!

What is likely to happen is that with the Terrible econ climate here in the UK ......... a maintaining of 5% Bank of Eng base rate is actually liken to be like a rate hike really. But, the terrible truth is that there should be a HARD, but PAINFUL rate hike so that Inflation can be checked. However, the human heart is weak ......... that chap on the seat of the Governor of the Bank of Eng is One Such! So is the Chancellor.

Well, so here we go, the Pain is prolonged when somebody is sentimental and emotional to let people swallow the Hard, but Painful Economic Pill of rescue! Time is not a friend ( so goes the Beatles ), no friend of yours too! The longer it lingers, the worse it becomes! Gordan ( the ex-chancellor ) is still hanging on though - tough luck for him.

The Opposite is true for the US. Why? Its Government is trying to swallow 2 BIG PILLS of economic monstrousity - 'Licking' Fanny and 'Oraling' Freddie at the Same Time would not bring about the 'Pleasure' of Econ Cumming to its Senses! Well, the rest of the investors are not going to re-invest in such a malpractised country with its out-dated system of financial credibility. There is no such Revamp or rather Reform required to bring about Transparency to the present system ( not to mention the 2 Mortgage Giants ). The Fed Government has no plans at all ( like what to do after swallowing the '2 pills' ) and it did not also state what portion of the debts would be written off and which remaining ones are to belong to the tax-payer! A rate-cut would definitely be expected in such a scenario ........... by which time, it WILL NO LONGER be useful any more - Japan cut its base to Zero, but without major technological advances and the strong currency, the US is UNLIKELY to gain from future Rate Cuts at all!. The Chinese might be dumping their US bonds en mass!!


S K

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Hi There


Be with GOD, for it is HE who would Hear Ye Out! Be not with GOD, for those of Ye who Hear Him Not!

HariHaraBramKalki ( S K )

Yahoo! 360° - S K's Profile

I am talking about US,,, IT was a rather strange rumour as It would be very difficult to imagine another rate cut. I mean we are lucky if we donot get a rate hike let alone cut,,

Grey1

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Ay mates, what do we say, up down or chop around on monday? The hurricane is blowing through the gulf coast right now, gasoline futures will be up...but crude will not. Refineries are slowing down, but pumping is still pumping away.

Core CPI numbers coming out next week on Tuesday...watch for those, as well as FOMC Policy Statement on tuesday! Things are going to get crazy, I have a feeling. Also initial claims, crude inventories, and Philadelphia Fed are other news worthy events..

I was looking for a new bottom last week, NQ made a new bottom and the DOW threatened us...
watch out for new bottoms still, we're not in the clear yet!

 

[Atilla]

Ay mates, what do we say, up down or chop around on monday? The hurricane is blowing through the gulf coast right now, gasoline futures will be up...but crude will not. Refineries are slowing down, but pumping is still pumping away.

Core CPI numbers coming out next week on Tuesday...watch for those, as well as FOMC Policy Statement on tuesday! Things are going to get crazy, I have a feeling. Also initial claims, crude inventories, and Philadelphia Fed are other news worthy events..

I was looking for a new bottom last week, NQ made a new bottom and the DOW threatened us...
watch out for new bottoms still, we're not in the clear yet!

I still have mixed emotions what ever my uncle Oscar tells me. :cheesy:

The determining DOMINANT factor imo is Lehman Brothers.

News is bad - Air Italia is about to bite the dust too. Knock on effects to holiday companies too now. Tourism bound to suffer.

Rail & Air accidents all around us.

TA says up for me and FA says down.

I'm between 10500 and 11700 for now.

Will have a better look later on in the evening. :whistling

 

[Pat494]

Lets hope Barclays DONT buy Lehman.
It would pull them down - amazing to think that lehmans was THE US financial institution that was renowned for employing only the very best graduates. Got their sums wrong it seems

 

[Atilla]

Hi everyone,

Here is my take on the charts. Still non the wiser. Same charts I'm afraid.

Weekly chart shows us on the support line with a higher low and also on the Fib arc. These were drawn last November so really chuffed to see them hold today acting as support. This is the reason why I think next move looks like an upwards move to the upper red resistance line. I don't understand why these charts jump about on different time frames but on the daily charts the upper resistance red line is just below 13000 which is why I think we may attempt to reach there by year end. It does look far out today and perhaps 12500-800 may be a more realistic target. Time will tell.

On the daily chart I can see symmetrical triangle or wedge and this normaly continues in the direction of the trend, thus break out should be down. My MAs nicely bunched up and virtually flat.

So I think we are near a break out but still not clear which way. I'll continue to sit out and wait for a clearer signal. Be nice to see red or green but not both.

The whole market is rudderless and believe its likely to be news driven to tip it either way in the short term. If Lehman brothers are bought out then it could help drive the sentiment we are nearing the end and bargains to be had.

If Lehman Brothers goes and Fed steps in where does the government intervention end?

If Lehman Brothers goes and nobody picks it off the floor, then this could be the beginning or big wave 3 down for other stocks.

A lot at stake here. I'm sure patient observers and stock pickers are in for a killing if timing can be harnessed just right.

My actions will be based on direction of my moving averages (liked to see them all green) and Bollinger Breakouts.


Good trading everyone. :whistling

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Good analysis Atilla

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

10,000 is nigh!

 

[Atilla]

10,000 is nigh!

Maybe... Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

It Aint over till the fat lady sings!

But she may be singing soon...
So will there be another bailout, of LEH?

 

[Atilla]

It Aint over till the fat lady sings!

But she may be singing soon...
So will there be another bailout, of LEH?

Cheers Arthur, so far my appreciation of the news is that the Fed is playing mum and reluctant to bail out.

CMC DOW cash = 11150 at the mo. Down 300 from Friday's close.

If 11000 fails 10500 in sight.

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

GAP DOWN! Take a look.

What's going on? Looks like all the ugly news has been priced into all US stock indices.
Might be a good day to go long if we see signs of reversal, otherwise DOW could go into 10900 and nasdaq could test lows of 1700.

 

[Atilla]

GAP DOWN! Take a look.

What's going on? Looks like all the ugly news has been priced into all US stock indices.
Might be a good day to go long if we see signs of reversal, otherwise DOW could go into 10900 and nasdaq could test lows of 1700.

Might be worth a punt with big SL but this thing is going to be purely based on news.

Little fish like us will be wasted in the swings.

DOW=11215...

NN zzzz

 

[Vaco]

it will be a brave man that goes long today.

 

[Atilla]

it will be a brave man that goes long today.

I'm thinking even if a solution is found how does any body deal with this kind of debt.

We've said there is no transparancy and no one knows true extent of exposure banks have to the sub-prime crises.

These figures are enough for any one person to go into a head spin... :-0



Lehman, which employed 25,935 people at the end of August in 61 offices around the world, had a balance sheet totaling $786 billion as recently as February. Merrill Lynch, with 60,000 employees, is known for its ``thundering herd'' of financial advisers that brought Wall Street financial products to Main Street investors.

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

 

[Pat494]

Glad to see:-
1. Barclays have decided not to buy "Lemon Bros"
2. The Fed has finally ( much too late ) put more curbs on the US banking system. They might have been said to be the cleverest around, but they can't be trusted to tie their own shoe laces !!

 

[jm99]

cme limits, may come into play today - http://www.cme.com/trading/files/EquityIndexPriceLimitGuide.pdf

 

[breadman]

I'm thinking even if a solution is found how does any body deal with this kind of debt.

We've said there is no transparancy and no one knows true extent of exposure banks have to the sub-prime crises.

These figures are enough for any one person to go into a head spin... :-0



Lehman, which employed 25,935 people at the end of August in 61 offices around the world, had a balance sheet totaling $786 billion as recently as February. Merrill Lynch, with 60,000 employees, is known for its ``thundering herd'' of financial advisers that brought Wall Street financial products to Main Street investors.

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

most of the sub-prime mortgage losses are behind us now with around 500 billion lost so far, but the next type of mortgage you will get to know about over the next year will be the Alt A mortgages. These mortgages will also produce hundreds of billions of losses. Over the next 3 years I expect banks/insurance companies to lose another 500 billion.

As for the dow lets see if we can hold the 11078 which is 76.4% retrace of the july low to August high.

 

[Pat494]

most of the sub-prime mortgage losses are behind us now with around 500 billion lost so far, but the next type of mortgage you will get to know about over the next year will be the Alt A mortgages. These mortgages will also produce hundreds of billions of losses. Over the next 3 years I expect banks/insurance companies to lose another 500 billion.

As for the dow lets see if we can hold the 11078 which is 76.4% retrace of the july low to August high.

Perhaps you would be kind enough to explain exactly what these Alt A mortgages are BM ?