Dow 2008

[postman]

you are spot on ,

To put all above in technical format we say..

MARKET IS A FORWARD LOOKING DISCOUNTING MEHCANISM WITH OLD NEWS PRICED IN , AND IMMEDIATLEY LOOKing INTO FUTURE.

DOW Is currently OB on Daily and weekly time frame which means it has to correct sooner or later before it break out to above. The amount of correction will be small around 100-200 points but the rally will soon covers the 200 points loss and a major break out afterward. I have asked people who missed the boat on 17th April LONG CALL not to OPEN any new positions till we have at least an OS market on daily time frame.

A strong market has a very clever way of getting out of OB situation without giving away many points. THIS MARKET IS VERY VERY STRONG .

grey1

If I'm reading this correctly then 100-200 points off 13060 is 12860 (yesterdays close) are you looking for a neutral/ up day today?

 

[firewalker99]

If I'm reading this correctly then 100-200 points off 13060 is 12860 (yesterdays close) are you looking for a neutral/ up day today?

12720 pre-market :-0

anything below 12700 signals trouble imo

 

[Atilla]

Hi guys,

Here is my take on the route to the stars...

I'm don't use Elliot Theory but always do look for them and patterns. In the weekly charts I can clearly see a 12345 down pattern between the two blue lines.

The retrace of 61% has virtually played it self out to the 13200s when the DOW hit 13150s midweek. When I first considered 13200 few weeks ago I thought not much chance but that's what the technicals show got to go with the flow... :smart::whistling

Now I reckon we are seeing an ABC type correction. If my understanding is correct we should be on the B leg of a move down in the next week or so.

I'm thinking out loud and have 12500 as the B followed by the C leg to 13200-13230 again before the next big 5 wave down for the summer.

The bigger H&S and the rest of it is still in play too imo. In a nut shell I think the bear market correction has yet to complete.

Good trading everyone....

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- Dow Thoughts

12720 pre-market :-0

anything below 12700 signals trouble imo

====================================================

trouble, or just a decent short ??

dow presently bumping on its lower MAIN and both secondary and tertiary LRC's, with support at 12715 and 12701.--- probable bounce up to the 12795.14 - 12800 area (wonder about the higher number though) and settle back down to test 12690 and 12647

Breakdown of 12647 brings forth the 12423 support level !

TUESDAY should tell for sure -- to see if the bounce breaks to the upside or bounces back down, and i believe its DOWN

 

[ammo]

we need a pullback in oil for a mrkt bounce,one should compliment the other,also the dow and spus have rallied for a month meaning stock holders with options sprds will be unloading stocks for exp fri as they unwind their may optons,so mrkt direction is a coin flip,sidelines or trade with tight stops as a coinflip mrkt is always choppy,save your capital for clearer signals

 

[mp6140]

we need a pullback in oil for a mrkt bounce,one should compliment the other,also the dow and spus have rallied for a month meaning stock holders with options sprds will be unloading stocks for exp fri as they unwind their may optons,so mrkt direction is a coin flip,sidelines or trade with tight stops as a coinflip mrkt is always choppy,save your capital for clearer signals

============================================================

we need a good, inexpensive pizza --- THATS what we really need, cause the rest is in the hands of one of those freaky little gods that hang around the pantheon of the SEC !

been talking to her all day, but she wont budge the DOW without a good pizza !

enjoy and trade well

mp

oh yeah fireguy --- THERES my forecast, ok --- or do you want more ?

 

[Dinos]

Guys, come on, lets get on with why we are here, its not a sparring ring, lets work together to beat the "enemy", the MM's, not argue with one another

 

[firewalker99]

Guys, come on, lets get on with why we are here, its not a sparring ring, lets work together to beat the "enemy", the MM's, not argue with one another

I don't consider those on the opposite side of my trade to be my enemies. In fact, they are a necessity

 

[barjon]

Guys, come on, lets get on with why we are here, its not a sparring ring, lets work together to beat the "enemy", the MM's, not argue with one another

hear, hear, dinos

i've deleted the sparring now please stop - thank you

jon

 

[mp6140]

Not exactly, you said nothing about 12740 being a potential reversal level. You said nothing about a reversal around noon, you mentioned 12715 and 12701 instead.

And to make it simple, you said 12690 was going to be tested.

It's funny how quickly one comes up with excuses once things don't go as planned. Don't hide between "I don't trade this market". You certainly didn't mind when making predictions when I posted several live trades in the "all you need is... a chart" thread.

This is going to break higher, like it or not.

Oh and btw, deleting your post gives you even more credibility

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afraid the mods are doing the deleting -- my prediction still stands

BUT fireguy, being rather serious here, what was predicted comes from the 240 min chart and is the WHOLE move and trend ---- this whole "prediction" wasnt for today (in fact, its says that TUESDAY will tell more about resistance !

intraday i could have predicted even more easily --- just go to the high and low of the LRC and give you those figures, which appear to be working.

as for the intraday reversals, they happen every hour and a half, with the major ones at 12 noon and 12 midnite american time ! --- the minor ones happen every hour annd a half between those points with ONE VERY MAJOR reversal as the main trade before the noon and midnite ones --- havent you been keeping up with my lessons ?

my "predictions" will take more than a few days (maybe by the end of this week) to happen if they should happen.

NOW -- get off my back and watch --- end of week talk to me like a gentleman and i may not tear your neck off and pour french onion soup down the hole !

in the meantime my impatient friend --- WATCH AND LEARN !

mp

 

[firewalker99]

afraid the mods are doing the deleting -- my prediction still stands

Sorry if I suggested otherwise. My apologies (for this).

my "predictions" will take more than a few days (maybe by the end of this week) to happen if they should happen.

in the meantime my impatient friend --- WATCH AND LEARN !

mp

That's all I wanted to hear really... It's good to share ideas and views, especially so we can realize how you trade.

You see, if the prediction doesn't come true today, it might the next day. If not, the next week. You don't use stops, ergo you never have a losing trade. So what are you going to do in the meantime? Wait while the trade goes against you a couple of hundred points?

For the sake of newbies reading this, I think it's important to remind people that those who went long in October 1929, had to wait 30 years for price to come back at their entry point.

 

[mp6140]

Sorry if I suggested otherwise. My apologies (for this).

That's all I wanted to hear really... It's good to share ideas and views, especially so we can realize how you trade.

actually fire, i trade every way there is, or at least every way i know --- 2 pips or 200, i go with the flow, so how do i talk about 2 pips ?

You see, if the prediction doesn't come true today, it might the next day. If not, the next week. You don't use stops, ergo you never have a losing trade.

you know im using the 240 min and you know that is not a short term trading tool, but as i glance at the price on the DOW, it sure is going where i said it would go, so where have i gone wrong ?

once it hits resistance, which i plainly stated would be tuesday, we see (which i believe it will) if it turns down and then makes for the support areas i forecast !

there is NO clearer way of saying it --- i gave the bounce poiint, the resistance point that leads to the bounce back down and the SHORT trade, and my anticipated lower figures ---- theres no "year" in there, but rather a pretty quick weekly trade !

do remember ONE THING ABOUT HOW I TRADE, i trade BOTH LONG AND SHORT --- i take the rally and i take the reversal --- i DO NOT take a trade in one direction for longer than 4 hours or so (ok, maybe 8), so THATS WHAT MY FORECASTS MEAN

now shut up and watch and be patient for a few days !

For the sake of newbies reading this, I think it's important to remind people that those who went long in October 1929, had to wait 30 years for price to come back at their entry point.

for the sake of newbies on this site, working without stop losses (which is what fire is talking about) is NOT for newbs or those without a VERY good idea of how, when and where the market is going, but once learned can lead to enormous profits when used correctly (in other words, using words i dont normaly deal with,

THE RISK/REWARD RATIO IS OFF THE WALL !

btw --- because of the momentum, we may not get that reversal till 1:30, if at all today -- its strong and moving towards 12860 ---- it is highly conceiveable that we get our reversal before tomorrow, although i would not normally think so.;

mp

 

[firewalker99]

DOW analysis 2008-05-12 First hours

Instead of making predictions out of thin air, it might be more interesting to understand the behaviour of price today.

We opened at the middle of a S/R range which expands from 12740 to 12820. The midpoint can, and often will, provide important action. For example, if price rises 100 points and drops back less than 50, it signals strength. If it drops more than 50, it signals weakness.

But we were talking about where price opened: slightly below the midpoint of 12780. Incidentally, this coincided with the close of the spike of the previous day high. So there you have it, confluence and important to watch how price reacts to it. What we had was decent volume, but nothing extraordinary. A trader could've shorted from 12780 (like I did), but he must realize that trading price from this level towards to next S/R level is more difficult than the other way around.

Anyhow, the big volume came in around 12740 to push price up, after which the supplyline was broken. You could've gone long here with a close stop, but trading off a 5-minute time frame would be difficult to spot the exact entry. Therefore the smaller timeframe often gives you better entry possibilities. Nonetheless, on the 5-min the 20 point move from 12740 to 12760 was still decent enough to ride price up to resistance at 12810. And this is where we are now.

There is no reason to exit the trade, although taking some off can be validated given that we are at resistance, but so far the demand line is still steadily up, and we've yet to see a retracement of some kind, let alone a lower high.

 

[mp6140]

should momentum continue and the 12860.70 resist actually be blown away today, showing 12908 riding above.

it has to go up before it can come back down, so maybe TUESDAY is correct -- we see

mp

 

[mp6140]

This stuff is getting better by the minute

fireguy, we call em differently, but when the dust clears is when you count em, not before --- intraday picked up strength, but we know that never lasts long, so resistance figures "could" certainly change as we go, but we also know that what goes up, must come down, and i would move a bit over before you get hit by falling prices, imho !

mp

 

[firewalker99]

should momentum continue and the 12860.70 resist actually be blown away today, showing 12908 riding above.

it has to go up before it can come back down, so maybe TUESDAY is correct -- we see

mp

Wait a second, I've lost you. so now 12908 comes into play, but two hours ago 12690 was a foregone conclusion?

 

[firewalker99]

..., but we also know that what goes up, must come down,

I wonder how many traders have blown their account by believing that.
"Wall Street's graveyards are filled with men who were right too soon." - William Hamilton.

and i would move a bit over before you get hit by falling prices, imho !

mp

I said: "There is no reason to exit the trade, although taking some off can be validated given that we are at resistance, but so far the demand line is still steadily up, and we've yet to see a retracement of some kind, let alone a lower high."

 

[mp6140]

Wait a second, I've lost you. so now 12908 comes into play, but two hours ago 12690 was a foregone conclusion?

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extreme apologies indeed --- fingers misbehaving

12908 if 12960.70 broken

hey, we wait and we see --- reality has a way of getting in the way of theory an awful lot, although i really like this one.

in theory, theory and practice are the same --- in practice, theory usually blows up !

I hold on what the index will do over a short period of time, but if they decide to run it higher than normal resistance, so be it -- not predictable except perhaps by mrmanus, and im not him !

mp

 

[firewalker99]

hey, we wait and we see --- reality has a way of getting in the way of theory an awful lot, although i really like this one.

in theory, theory and practice are the same --- in practice, theory usually blows up !

Are you're saying you don't predict, but you act on what you see instead?
Because if you are, that sounds a lot of plagiarism

Trading in real time is not about theory, it is about acting on what you see, not what "should" or "could" or "may" happen.

I hold on what the index will do over a short period of time, but if they decide to run it higher than normal resistance, so be it -- not predictable except perhaps by mrmanus, and im not him !

mp

"so be it"?! but if we followed you're advice, we'd be short, so when do we close out? wait until it goes above 13000 or just wait and see till tomorrow?

 

[Mathemagician]

This style of trading is not new. In fact, it's popular with some folks who trade other peoples' money. 99.9% of the time you will win. 0.1% of the time you will go broke (or worse). Rinse and repeat. It's a style that appeals more to the ego than the wallet in the long run.

jj