Dow 2008

[Hook Shot]

The Fed is desperate. Another .5% is pure over reaction before the .75 has time to take effect. Hence, given the election year growth is primary concern and not inflation. This means more cuts on the way as problems will get worse.

I think this is going all the way to 800. I'd say 70/30 upside potential.

Desperate......mmmh does not sound good.... desperate smacks of "we're in trouble"..
Rates work with a lag as you know....... so hard to find comfort in fed's recent action.

Naz100 may be the one to watch (?) it hasn't really joined the party .......i.e no new swing highs wednesday

 

[Atilla]

Desperate......mmmh does not sound good.... desperate smacks of "we're in trouble"..
Rates work with a lag as you know....... so hard to find comfort in fed's recent action.

Naz100 may be the one to watch (?) it hasn't really joined the party .......i.e no new swing highs wednesday

DOW is playing shy...

Will it or will it not chross my pivot point 12386... ???

It's sad but I'm really 'hoping' and 'egging' it on. I'll have to get my Arsenal scarf, rattler and whistle out cheering it on here. :clap:

PS I'm at home today with a nasty cold and itching for some trades...

 

[firewalker99]

DOW is playing shy...

Will it or will it not chross my pivot point 12386... ???

For the sake of clarity, you want price to fall further back a bit (12386) but you want 12400 crossed before going long... I'm not really clear on this - I suppose these are cash prices - but could you just shed some more light on the strategy about what would exactly trigger you to take a long position?

 

[firewalker99]

I think yesterday was an excellent opportunity for the smart money to position itself for a ride down.

400 points lower than yesterday's high. Hmm, I can live with that, will close out here.

 

[Atilla]

For the sake of clarity, you want price to fall further back a bit (12386) but you want 12400 crossed before going long... I'm not really clear on this - I suppose these are cash prices - but could you just shed some more light on the strategy about what would exactly trigger you to take a long position?

Hi Firewalker,

This is what I was looking at this morning...

Basically, before taking the long trade I would like my MAs to be crossed by price and as I mentioned before I would like my MAs to turn up... If I don't get those signals I rather not enter the trade given my short bias on DOW.

I was expecting at least 12386 the pivot point to be crossed and for that nice warm feeling 12400 to be breached also. Then I'd feel comfortable about attempting to reach for the my real target of 12800s.

Given the spike yesterday and DOW easing off going long would have been premature for me.

Delighted with USDJPY hitting 105.90... Thought we'd hit 105s again after that rate cut. Also, I'm expecting further Yen carry trades to unwind.

As I was replying to your question you guys seen DOW come off the 300s? It's now 1277 on my ticker. Obviously morning expectation was wrong. I've now switched sentiment and also I am short - have a target of 12096=S1. Ofcourse the US open may change all that.

 

[mrpunter]

well played fw.
you and atilla appear to have swapped roles of late!?
atilla, you used to be my uber bear hero but nowadays you appear to be egging the market ever higher!? lol
out of interest do you guys believe the recession will be an inflationary one or do you foresee years of asset price deflation?
tia and best of luck to all!

 

[firewalker99]

well played fw.
you and atilla appear to have swapped roles of late!?
atilla, you used to be my uber bear hero but nowadays you appear to be egging the market ever higher!? lol

a very astute observation
Fwiw, it's as much a surprise to me as to you while Atilla is considering longs!

As for recession or stagflation, who knows... it's hard looking into the near future, let alone in the far future.

 

[Atilla]

well played fw.
you and atilla appear to have swapped roles of late!?
atilla, you used to be my uber bear hero but nowadays you appear to be egging the market ever higher!? lol
out of interest do you guys believe the recession will be an inflationary one or do you foresee years of asset price deflation?
tia and best of luck to all!

Well I'm still a bear but you know I do my main analysis on Sunday evenings and this week the charts showed a bounce. That's all really. Thanks to all the guys on T2W I no longer trade on FA but TA. Still have a short bias but I am prepared to take longs if my setups with MAs heading in right direction.

Yes for sure this recession will be an inflationary one. I believe we already have stagflation but it's covered up with ever changing indeces to measure inflation. IMO the headline inflation figures for the UK and probably US too are BS. No energy no mortgage payments. Figure that one out. ??? Superman and our politicians may not feel the cold or need a roof over there heads but the rest of the popullation sure does.

What do you think and feel Mr Punter?

 

[firewalker99]

Well I'm still a bear but you know I do my main analysis on Sunday evenings and this week the charts showed a bounce. That's all really. Thanks to all the guys on T2W I no longer trade on FA but TA.

Wow I didn't realize T2W could have such an impact on people

 

[mrpunter]

What do you think and feel Mr Punter?

i agree with John Makin, economist at the American Enterprise Institute:
“The cost of avoiding recession after the biggest housing bubble in American history has burst is too high. It will involve rewards to those who took excessive risks that will only result in more underpricing of risk in the future, and therefore larger bubbles and, ultimately, a more unstable economy that underperforms expectations . . . The positive economic aspect of the US housing bubble collapse is that it will lead to a recession.”

I see inflation everywhere but I can't see how we can avoid years of asset price deflation either due to the spending squeeze....

 

[Hook Shot]

I'm not an economist but.........

Well I'm still a bear but you know I do my main analysis on Sunday evenings and this week the charts showed a bounce. That's all really. Thanks to all the guys on T2W I no longer trade on FA but TA. Still have a short bias but I am prepared to take longs if my setups with MAs heading in right direction.

Yes for sure this recession will be an inflationary one. I believe we already have stagflation but it's covered up with ever changing indeces to measure inflation. IMO the headline inflation figures for the UK and probably US too are BS. No energy no mortgage payments. Figure that one out. ??? Superman and our politicians may not feel the cold or need a roof over there heads but the rest of the popullation sure does.

What do you think and feel Mr Punter?

Wouldn't a serious downturn kill inflation or to use the vernacular inflation should moderate..... I too see inflation bigtime but perhaps not linked to slowdown. Why the big lads are whispering inflation will run out of control in the years ahead.....


What about that Ronaldo Free Kick........:clap::clap::clap:

 

[Atilla]

Wow I didn't realize T2W could have such an impact on people

I wouldn't be too surprised Firewalker, you were one of the main culprits in that gang of T2Ws :cheesy:

Gang leader even...

 

[Atilla]

i agree with John Makin, economist at the American Enterprise Institute:
“The cost of avoiding recession after the biggest housing bubble in American history has burst is too high. It will involve rewards to those who took excessive risks that will only result in more underpricing of risk in the future, and therefore larger bubbles and, ultimately, a more unstable economy that underperforms expectations . . . The positive economic aspect of the US housing bubble collapse is that it will lead to a recession.”

I see inflation everywhere but I can't see how we can avoid years of asset price deflation either due to the spending squeeze....

You can avoid inflation by taking any measure of asset prices out of the basket of indeces that is used to measure inflation.

HS. the answer to your question is no - not if you give tax cuts, pump $150bn dollars and reduce interest rates back down to real zero levels.

Net effect, nobody buys US goods and everybody has money to buy more imports...

S. T. A. G. F. L. A. T. I. O. N...

Don't know about the freekick but I'd say an own goal was on the way...

 

[dc2000]

wouldnt mind a breather soon 420s region need a brew

 

[Atilla]

wouldnt mind a breather soon 420s region need a brew

I'm flat again. Lost out on that last short trade as I had to go out for some shopping... The US open did pick up but 12400 is still not in sight.

It's looking like it's

Closed my short on USDJPY also.


Well the DOW has a new lease of life and 12400 has been breached according to my cash prices.

Firewalker I'm now long @ 12406 - SL 12370

 

[horses101]

question for DC2000

taken a small long@321will put a 40 point running stop on this,The long signal for me should come in @12235 that being the case the target would calc @12514 which is where I would re-short if we dont hit 235 first

Greetings DC2000.
I am dying to know how you arrived the figure 12235 as the long signal. It indeed bounced off the figure and I am very impressed.
I am not experienced trader so please use simpliest possible terms otherwise I would not be able to understand it. Thanks.

I must say this is one wonderful forum and the guys here are just awesome.

Horses101

 

[dc2000]

no rest for the wicked have started to close position out and may look for a short signal soon

long now fully closed

 

[Atilla]

no rest for the wicked have started to close position out and may look for a short signal soon

long now fully closed

I'm now using trailing SL @ 12434 - Make sure I come away with something out of this patiently expected planned and executed trade if I may say so Firewalker...

I was hoping it would kiss my pivot point R1 @ 12493 but didn't quite get there.

I spoke too soon...

Here is my chart and I can see ticker now at 12504...

Moving SL to 12464...

 

[dc2000]

Hi Horses 101 and welcome
Thats a bit like asking Gordon Ramsey for the recipe for his secret sauce
but in its simplist form every trader wants yesterdays price or a better price


PS not short yet

 

[Atilla]

Could this go all the way to R2 @ 12784????

Just closed pos @ 12554 for +150. That's me done nicely for the day.