Dow 2007

[lurkerlurker]

LL, PLEASE DO NOT ALTER YOUR STOPS BASED ON MY COMMENTS, I was merely passing an observation and in no way was I advising you to alter your stop, FW is right in his comment, you must trade your plan, which should be in place before yo place any trade.

WOW Dinos! I didn't. I had moved the stop to breakeven based on chicken****ness about the market direction, thinking that T&S showed potential for an upside break when I was short. I didn't want a losing trade, so I decided to risk scratching one in return for removing much of my exposure to a dramatic upswing. It wasn't based on your comment, and as it is on paper fear couldn't have been generated by your comment. Further, you said the stop was too close - I didn't move it further away to give the trade more room, I moved it closer because I perceived a change in market direction.

Yes, I'm now trying to trade the plan (SL at BE after +10)

 

[lurkerlurker]

Even if you go for a cheap broker, you'd be amazed how much goes up into commissions... In my early days I had days where I thought I'd made a nice profit! Deducting commissions however showed a loss.. these things can really eat you up! 1 point on DOW is 5USD and the commissions for 1 roundtrip are 4,26USD. So scalping 4 points means already >20% overhead costs!

$4.26 for a roundtrip? Suddenly FuturesBetting (1 point spread on the YM) is looking more attractive (Thats an extra 74c per roundtrip, but no tax). I'll start with IB though, until I have my £5k for FuturesBetting.

Stopped out by the way. Interesting day so far. I think I'm overtrading though, so waiting for a setup to come along.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Okay, best to write this down and review it at the end of the day.
"you felt a change"... needless to say more; yes this time you were right, but other times you won't.

Noted. Plan the trade, trade the plan.

 

[firewalker99]

industrials versus transports

I'll let charts speak for themselves

 

[lurkerlurker]

I'll let charts speak for themselves

Have you chosen not to draw a line on the volume divergence on the $INDU, or am I seeing a divergence where there isn't one?

 

[firewalker99]

Have you chosen not to draw a line on the volume divergence on the $INDU, or am I seeing a divergence where there isn't one?

I don't think it's as clear as on the TRAN... only on the end of the chart.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Short 39, SL 49, target 20. Holding this one according to the plan (exit variable, but at least +10).

 

[firewalker99]

Short 39, SL 49, target 20. Holding this one according to the plan (exit variable, but at least +10).

Good to see you are trading the plan.
However, didn't your plan say something about trading the trend?
I see a common word in each trade "short"... :|

 

[lurkerlurker]

Okay. Bad trading. Stop filled. Flat. Out of market. Back tomorrow. Will watch from the sidelines. I'm enjoying using the new software and am getting used to it - I'm not paying due care and attention really. Off to read a book.

Also, overtrading and being on the wrong side of the market is an issue today. Trying to short isn't working out, and I'm net -14 for the day. Trading the actual YM, this means I would be down £35 + costs.

Good luck all.

(Yes, firewalker was right - I need to make a system someone else can follow before trading -- even on paper. Sorry for polluting the thread with silly trades) Going to work on a system, moan about it on my journal, and stop annoying this thread!

 

[firewalker99]

A view so far...

... and why shorting is no option (yet)

 

[lurkerlurker]

Good to see you are trading the plan.
However, didn't your plan say something about trading the trend?
I see a common word in each trade "short"... :|

Ha ha ha! I've just noticed that, posted about it, and then read your post. Seems by the datestamp that you worked out the problem 3 minutes before I did!

 

[lurkerlurker]

... and why shorting is no option (yet)

Thanks for taking the time to do that during a live session. I have no excuse for this now - last week I could have said "but I don't have volume data". Volume divergences have been present, but they are corrected in short order. Longs only it would seem. And as I type this, 550 is breached.

 

[CJIA]

Short on 13480 50 point stoploss

Stop hit -50 ,overall a foolish trade.Take the loss for the day and wait for another opportunity.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I see I am still in the pattern where I unknowingly decide to try and pick tops! Good that I can recognise that, however I need to make sure I don't trade this way again.

Time to formalise rules about trading with the trend and consecutive losses.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Stop hit -50 ,overall a foolish trade.Take the loss for the day and wait for another opportunity.

What was "foolish" was such a wide stop loss (IMHO). I took a trade at a similar level, and was stopped out. My use of tight stops has limited my loss to -14 even though I have tried to short the thing half a dozen times!

Why did you use such a wide stop? What was your target? What timeframe were you looking at? How long were you considering holding? What was your risk:reward? Is this an acceptable risk:reward? What was your entry signal? Did you stick to your plan?

Would a stoploss of 20 been sufficient for this trade? Why did you give it more room?

Hope this post helps somehow.

Good trading.


-Lurker

 

[Paul71]

Shake out!

FW, you looking for 580?

 

[firewalker99]

Thanks for taking the time to do that during a live session. I have no excuse for this now - last week I could have said "but I don't have volume data". Volume divergences have been present, but they are corrected in short order. Longs only it would seem. And as I type this, 550 is breached.

Even if you didn't have volume as a guidance (which I usually only use as confirmation) the wide range bodies were followed by smaller bars and "slower" price movement (= small areas of consolidation).

On top of that, when price broke higher at the open and we travelled back into the range, that's a fairly bullish signal if you ever wanted one...

 

[firewalker99]

Shake out!

FW, you looking for 580?

If I were still in my longs (which I unfortunately closed too early!) this would be my exit: looks like an euphoria bar... Often a bar after which scalpers try and short it.

What comes next? For me: dinner than we'll see about FOMC but not likely I'll put on a trade anymore.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Even if you didn't have volume as a guidance (which I usually only use as confirmation) the wide range bodies were followed by smaller bars and "slower" price movement (= small areas of consolidation).

On top of that, when price broke higher at the open and we travelled back into the range, that's a fairly bullish signal if you ever wanted one...

A good hundred points for the taking today. Three cheers for the smart, patient, longs! Sorry you exited too quick, but well done with the profits, and as ever thanks for the advice.

 

[Dinos]

LL, no offence intended in my uppercase post, I apologise if it was received that way.

FW, I do agree with you we are trending up, however, as you no I like a little short and it can be possible, if the conditions present themselves during the trading day.

LL, you mentioned you still are trying to pick the top, as you are aware, I don't to pick the tops/bottoms, but I wait until imho, it has been reached and the retracement confirms a change of direction. I put that down to experience and attempt to jtake a position after the event, don't try and pick them, let them happen, know when it has happened and wait to see if the movement is to be sustained and look for an entry point (if possible), and trade the trend.

Robert