Jerry Olson
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kewbridge said:
Hi Kewbridge
what do have a for the Brad turn date the 11th???
thanks
Hi Kewbridge
what do have a for the Brad turn date the 11th???
thanks
Chocolate
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I had a small short with stop at 430-odd and limit at 365-odd to try to catch any modest retracement back to Friday's close. I was within a cat's whisker of my stop getting hit, but fortunately it wasn't. Good luck to those who are long: in the short term they might need it.
The market is like a kid having a tantrum at the moment. It will behave as long as Mr. Bernanke gives it what it wants. Otherwise it will go into a storming rage and prance wildly about and threaten to throw itself off a cliff until it gets what it wants!
The market is like a kid having a tantrum at the moment. It will behave as long as Mr. Bernanke gives it what it wants. Otherwise it will go into a storming rage and prance wildly about and threaten to throw itself off a cliff until it gets what it wants!
Jerry Olson said:
Jerry
I have May 15 - May 20 for the Bradley high window this month - 11512? God knows, I'm just trading intraday while it's so volatile. Holding a long at 11320 tonight. Don't usually hold overnight but think this one will attempt a spike in the morning.
Pat494
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Glad to see our leader and his henchmen in the news again. On the all news is good publicity basis - he must be pleased with the their vigorous activities, even if some of the effort is in the horizontal position ( perhaps public figures should have government approved chastity belts ? ) or letting out prisoners willy nilly ( always said politicians should take common sense tests ).
Pat494
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Don't want to appear unappreciative of their meagre efforts but here is a blog from another website:-
The Prescott saga just makes me feel they spend a lot of time getting pissed at your and my expense, not really caring about much while sneakily taking more money from us in taxes then spending it on useless idiotic pen pushers and nannying laws.
If any of them had any dignity they would resign but then they'd lose their huge fat wages, perks free houses, booze and the rest of it,, and especially their cars. No wonder they won't go unless they are pushed.
The Prescott saga just makes me feel they spend a lot of time getting pissed at your and my expense, not really caring about much while sneakily taking more money from us in taxes then spending it on useless idiotic pen pushers and nannying laws.
If any of them had any dignity they would resign but then they'd lose their huge fat wages, perks free houses, booze and the rest of it,, and especially their cars. No wonder they won't go unless they are pushed.
Chocolate said:
Hi Chocolate - this will seem a bit random - but in the now defunct "DOW which way" thread you asked about the correlation between the DOW and the Dollar. I happened to spot an article in Investors Chronicle 21/27 April on the very subject, which showed a close correlation between returns on Equities and currency movements on both sides of the Atlantic, - worth a read.
Jerry Olson
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kewbridge said:
THANKS KEWBRIDGE
very nice hold over night
good for you
Jerry Olson
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macbonzo said:
Hi Macbonzo
i do not feel the same since i think crude is about $15 bucks too high with the Iran Nigeria premium built in right now
it looks like and accident wating to happen at any time as does GOLD!!!
DepthTangent
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Jerry Olson said:
I would tend to say that the Dow looks more like an accident to happen than Gold or Crude, as the paper money is worthless and backed up by USD, well need I say anymore. However Gold & Crude are bound only by the desires and unquenchable thirst of human continuity, regardless of the currency that is pegged to such tangibles. With what basis do you calculate that Gold is an accident waiting to happen, its price? The price of Gold has been artificially submerged for as long as I can remember and then some more.
We are experiencing an era that penetrates all "conventional economic knowledge", anything is possible. New values, new opinions, new beliefs will be installed as part of the ongoing process of change. He who see's before, is quite simply one step ahead of the game.
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Baldwreck said:
Thanks for the info., though I can't access it online as it's subscribers only. Do you get the journal at the newsagent? I would be grateful if you or anyone with access to it could summarise in a sentence what the conclusions of the study are! Many thanks! I'm reading lots of articles these days saying things like "we are entering strange times" and we can tear up our history books telling us what should be happening - stuff like currencies with high interest rates should be the strongest isn't working right now with the dollar, stuff like gold and equities simultaneously making new highs etc.
Charlie sez
"Our situation Wednesday is: positive news, with the Dow and the S&P beginning near their highs for today. The futures in the premarket will likely tell us if the Dow is going to punch through the resistance line. Traders crave instant gratification, and have short memories. My guess is that we're then set up for an inverted U-shaped day, as the excitement wears off, and the cyborgs feast. And that probably would make Thursday likely a carry through day, for downward momentum. Losing money is one thing that they do remember for awhile."
Overnight futures were flat as at 8.30am. Will the Dow and SPX convincingly break through resistance at 11425 and 1320 and head north or will they bang their heads on this ceiling and fall over ? We're currently in uncertain territory at the moment !
[size=+0]Oil is just below $75 and gold just below $675 this morning ! [/size]
[size=+0]As Jerry has pointed out they already factor in Iran/Nigeria but this of course makes them (and the markets) potentially highly volatile and very unpredictable. Clearly a difficult market to read or trade at the moment with breaking news an added ingredient to the bubbling cauldron !
[/size]
"Our situation Wednesday is: positive news, with the Dow and the S&P beginning near their highs for today. The futures in the premarket will likely tell us if the Dow is going to punch through the resistance line. Traders crave instant gratification, and have short memories. My guess is that we're then set up for an inverted U-shaped day, as the excitement wears off, and the cyborgs feast. And that probably would make Thursday likely a carry through day, for downward momentum. Losing money is one thing that they do remember for awhile."
Overnight futures were flat as at 8.30am. Will the Dow and SPX convincingly break through resistance at 11425 and 1320 and head north or will they bang their heads on this ceiling and fall over ? We're currently in uncertain territory at the moment !
[size=+0]Oil is just below $75 and gold just below $675 this morning ! [/size]
[size=+0]As Jerry has pointed out they already factor in Iran/Nigeria but this of course makes them (and the markets) potentially highly volatile and very unpredictable. Clearly a difficult market to read or trade at the moment with breaking news an added ingredient to the bubbling cauldron !
[/size]
Chocolate said:
Chocolate - here's the text from the article - unfortunately the chart won't copy. IC is published weekly.
Cancelling out
The rally in the US dollar has run out of steam - the greenback peaked against the euro as long ago as November - while the US stock market continues to rise.
These two facts are more connected than generally realised, because there's a close link between the dollar/euro exchange rate and equity markets.
The chart, below, shows this. It shows that annual changes in the dollar/euro rate are correlated with moves in dividend yields in the US and the eurozone. When US dividend yields fall relative to those in the eurozone, the dollar falls against the euro. And when US relative dividend yields rise, so does the greenback.
In fact, changes in relative dividend yields can explain, in the statistical sense, over a quarter of the variation in annual changes in the dollar/euro exchange rate.
To see why there should be such a link, think of the dividend yield as a measure of expected returns. A high yield means high (rationally) expected returns. And a low yield means low expected returns.
Now, imagine if expected returns on US equities fell, relative to those on eurozone stocks. Why should anyone want to carry on holding US stocks, when they'd suffer a relative loss from doing so?
One reason would be that they expect gains on the US dollar (relative to the euro) to offset losses on US equities (relative to eurozone stocks).
Expected (relative) returns on the dollar should, therefore, rise as expected (relative) returns on US stocks fall. And the way in which expected returns on the dollar rise is through the dollar falling, to a level from which it is more likely to subsequently rise.
So, changes in expected exchange rates should therefore cancel out changes in expected relative equity returns. This is uncovered equity return parity.
Of course, there are good reasons why this link won't always hold. For example, good news about economic growth should cause a fall in a country's dividend yield but a rise in its currency.
Even so, there's an important message here. Unless you know something others don't about such future shocks to growth - and you probably don't - you shouldn't expect both a rise in the US dollar and a rise in US shares relative to the eurozone.
Jerry Olson
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DepthTangent said:
Morning DT
if you check the chart for GC Continuous on P&F it's now 200% overbought above the Top of the 10 week trading band. I doubt anyone would want to chase here.
The thing that always interests me is when the news is all good for a stock or a commodity for too long, trust me that too will change at the drop of a hat.
I'm expecting a severe pullback in crude and gold soon. The news will change to good and the traders will sell at breakneck speed not to get caught "holding" the bag!
I have traded on sentiment and perception for years, everything DT moves back to the middle or the norm if you will.
So will crude and gold, just do not stand under this skyscraper when it falls..............
DepthTangent
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Jerry Olson said:Morning DT
if you check the chart for GC Continuous on P&F it's now 200% overbought above the Top of the 10 week trading band. I doubt anyone would want to chase here.
The thing that always interests me is when the news is all good for a stock or a commodity for too long, trust me that too will change at the drop of a hat.
I'm expecting a severe pullback in crude and gold soon. The news will change to good and the traders will sell at breakneck speed not to get caught "holding" the bag!
I have traded on sentiment and perception for years, everything DT moves back to the middle or the norm if you will.
So will crude and gold, just do not stand under this skyscraper when it falls..............
Afternoon Jerry,
Your sentiment is appreciated.
I must alert you to one contributory factor when considering the Dow Jones 30. The Dow has been in a bull market since 1933, all things being relative, I observe a trend that has not corrected anywhere near the middle of the range. However I understand that your trading strategy is scalping is it not ? There is much noise every day that produces pull backs etc, that can be considered if viewed from a short term perspective, ie 6 month to 6 month or even 5 years to 5 years, heck, I trade them everyday. But if you consider the bigger picture, there has been a trend in place for 75 years that has in no shape or form validated the premise of a return to the middle line, that includes a few so called crashes along the way. If your theory is correct, and I personally take advantage of a similar sentiment, then all things being relative, the Dow is ready to make that journey relative to 1933.
Until the Dow has tanked, and at some point post crash, when some kind of "market equilibrium" is reestablished Gold and Crude are in all probability very safe longs. Iam 100%sure there will be shake outs along the way, and herein maybe the answer. Its all about perception and strategy. Iam looking at the markets from a very long term yearly perspective, relative to many years gone by, and this brings me to my conclusion that Gold and Crude are in no shape or form a market that should be considered for long term shorting. I take into consideration factors as diverse as the evolution of civilisations when considering Gold and Crude, not merely a technical chart. Gold and Crude are longs if I ever seen one, of course quite a substantial chunk of that long has already been and gone, and one can expect a retracement or two in the forms of elliot waves, fibs or whatever mathematical structure you care to follow. I'll be only to pleased to short the minor retracements Jerry
Iam not a bull or bear, Iam both, fluidity. And to be honest, it amazes me how many people try and picture themselves as one or the other.. However having said that, unless one understands where the markets are going long term, you are quite simply trading blind.This itself could lead to a definition on what exactly constitutes as "trading blind" and again, this is quite simply a perception issue. The tenacity of the shift from source A to Gold and Crude is no coincidence, and a much longer term investment than many believe.