June 25, 2026
Markets are experiencing a sharp divergence this week as a combination of hawkish Federal Reserve signals, easing geopolitical tensions, and shifting commodity dynamics reshape global asset prices. The US dollar is trading at 13‑month highs, gold has broken below the critical $4,000 level, and oil is extending its decline toward $70 per barrel.
Key levels: Support at 101.00-100.76; resistance at 101.80-102.14.
Outlook: Bullish above 101.00. PCE data today is the next catalyst.
Key levels: Support at $3,960-$3,900; resistance at $4,147-$4,200.
Outlook: Bearish below $4,000. A break below $3,960 could open $3,900.
Key levels: Support at $68-$65; resistance at $72.00-$72.99 (200‑day MA).
Outlook: Bearish. A break below $68 could open $65.
Key levels: Support at 8,775-8,720; resistance at 8,835-8,890.
Outlook: Range-bound. A break above 8,835 would confirm bullish momentum.
Key levels: Support at 4,075-4,067; resistance at 4,112-4,175.
Four narratives driving markets:
Markets are experiencing a sharp divergence this week as a combination of hawkish Federal Reserve signals, easing geopolitical tensions, and shifting commodity dynamics reshape global asset prices. The US dollar is trading at 13‑month highs, gold has broken below the critical $4,000 level, and oil is extending its decline toward $70 per barrel.
US Dollar – Bullish Momentum Accelerates
The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 101.50-101.70, its highest level in over a year, as markets priced in a more hawkish Fed outlook. The probability of a September rate hike has surged to ~70%, up from 29.1% a week ago. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his commitment to restoring price stability.Key levels: Support at 101.00-100.76; resistance at 101.80-102.14.
Outlook: Bullish above 101.00. PCE data today is the next catalyst.
Gold – Crashes Below $4,000
Gold fell to $3,995 per ounce, hitting a seven-month low, pressured by a strong dollar and fading inflation concerns as oil prices decline. The metal has broken the psychological $4,000 level, triggering further selling.Key levels: Support at $3,960-$3,900; resistance at $4,147-$4,200.
Outlook: Bearish below $4,000. A break below $3,960 could open $3,900.
Oil – Extending Losses on Supply Hopes
WTI crude fell below $70 per barrel, its lowest level since late February, after the US granted Iran a 60‑day licence to sell oil into international markets. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased, and oil prices have fallen about 40% from their wartime peak.Key levels: Support at $68-$65; resistance at $72.00-$72.99 (200‑day MA).
Outlook: Bearish. A break below $68 could open $65.
ASX200 – Snaps Four‑Day Losing Streak
The ASX200 rose 0.2% to 8,808, supported by a benign Australian CPI print (4.0% vs 4.2% prior) and a rebound in technology stocks. WiseTech Global surged 14.5% after its recent decline.Key levels: Support at 8,775-8,720; resistance at 8,835-8,890.
Outlook: Range-bound. A break above 8,835 would confirm bullish momentum.
Shanghai Composite – Modest Recovery
The Shanghai Composite rose 0.11% to 4,111, led by semiconductors and AI stocks. SMIC +6.94%, Hygon +6.34%. The index remains in a 4,070-4,150 consolidation range.Key levels: Support at 4,075-4,067; resistance at 4,112-4,175.
Currency Pairs – Key Levels
- AUD/USD: 0.6890 – testing 200‑day MA (0.6856). Break could open 0.6800.
- GBP/USD: 1.3155 – UK PM resignation weighs. Support at 1.3150-1.3100.
- USD/JPY: 161.95 – intervention risk. Resistance at 162.00-163.50.
- EUR/USD: 1.1350 – weak. Support at 1.1312-1.1300.
Four narratives driving markets:
- Hawkish Fed – supporting the dollar, crushing gold.
- US‑Iran oil licence – easing supply concerns, weighing on oil.
- Easing geopolitical risk – reducing inflation fears, pressuring gold.
- UK political uncertainty – weighing on sterling.
- Gold: Bearish below $4,000. Avoid catching a falling knife.
- Oil: Bearish, but oversold. Sell rebounds.
- Dollar: Bullish above 101.00. PCE is key.
- ASX200: Range-bound. Watch 8,835 for direction.
