Dollar Holds at 13‑Month High, Gold Rebounds from $3,959, Oil Edges Higher – PCE in Focus

[RichieVo]

June 26, 2026

Markets are closing the week with a flurry of activity as investors await today's US Core PCE data – the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The dollar is holding near 13‑month highs, gold has bounced from $3,959 but remains below $4,000, and oil is attempting a technical recovery after falling to $69.

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US Dollar – 13‑Month High, Awaiting PCE​

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 101.40-101.56, its highest level in over a year. Markets are pricing in a ~70% probability of a September rate hike, up from 29.1% a week ago. Today's Core PCE data and Jobless Claims will be the key catalysts.
Key levels: Support at 101.00-100.76; resistance at 101.80-102.14.
Outlook: Bullish above 101.00. A hot PCE could push DXY toward 102.

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Gold – Bounced from $3,959, Still Below $4,000​

Gold rebounded to $4,020 after hitting a seven‑month low of $3,959. The metal broke the psychological $4,000 level but found some dip‑buying. Strong dollar and fading inflation fears continue to cap upside.
Key levels: Support at $3,900-$3,850; resistance at $4,089-$4,100.
Outlook: Bearish below $4,000. A break below $3,900 could open $3,850.

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Oil – Technical Recovery After Falling to $69​

WTI crude rebounded to $71.20 after briefly touching $69.00. Improved US‑Iran peace talks and increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have weighed on prices, but oversold conditions are supporting a bounce.
Key levels: Support at $69.00-$66.00; resistance at $72.00-$74.50 (9‑day MA).
Outlook: Range‑bound with downside bias. Sell rallies near resistance.

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ASX200 – Falls to Two‑Week Low​

The ASX200 fell 0.4% to 8,773, its lowest in two weeks. Strong Australian employment data reinforced expectations that the RBA may remain hawkish. Technology (+1.2%) and healthcare (+0.75%) led gains, but materials (-1.3%) and energy weighed.
Key levels: Support at 8,740-8,680; resistance at 8,800-8,820.
Outlook: Bearish below 8,800. A break below 8,680 could open deeper losses.

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NZX50 – Rebounds 0.7% to 13,493​

The NZX50 erased three sessions of losses, rising 0.7% to 13,493. Energy and healthcare led gains. The index remains in an uptrend, with pullbacks seen as buying opportunities.
Key levels: Support at 13,440-13,460; resistance at 13,520-13,530.
Outlook: Bullish. Buy pullbacks.

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Currency Pairs – Key Levels​

• AUD/USD: 0.6900 – testing 200‑day MA (0.6856). Break could open 0.6800.
• GBP/USD: 1.3180 – UK political uncertainty weighs. Support at 1.3150-1.3100.
• USD/JPY: 161.95 – intervention risk. Resistance at 162.00-163.50.
• EUR/USD: 1.1357 – weak. Support at 1.1350-1.1300.

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Today's Key Data (June 26)​

• Australia Unemployment Rate – 4.4% (as expected)
• US Initial Jobless Claims – 22:30 GMT
• US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) – Fed's preferred gauge
• US Personal Spending (MoM) – 22:30 GMT
• US Q1 Final GDP – 22:30 GMT
• US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) – 22:30 GMT

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Four narratives driving markets:

1. Hawkish Fed – supporting the dollar, pressuring gold.
2. US‑Iran peace progress – easing oil supply fears.
3. Strong Australian jobs – keeping RBA hawkish.
4. UK political uncertainty – weighing on sterling.

• Gold: Bearish below $4,000. $3,900 is key support.
• Oil: Bearish but oversold. Sell rallies.
• Dollar: Bullish above 101.00. PCE is key.
• ASX200: Bearish below 8,800. Watch 8,680 support.