does downgrading to lower timeframes leads to much more profits ?

the hare

Senior member
2,949 1,283
Surely longer time frames usually equal bigger differences in highs/lows. So stops/targets are likely to be bigger and thus profits/losses are likely to be bigger.

Conversely, larger stops are generally offset by smaller position sizes, so in actual dollar amounts, profits are no bigger. And of course, from a technical perspective my set up might occur 6 times a day on a 1 minute chart, but only 6 times per decade on a weekly chart. (Not that I bother these day with technical set ups)

However, if i did, I know which timeframe I'd rather trade

Then factor in consecutive losses. I think my longest streak has been around 14 trades, which for me was over and done with in a few days. If trading weekly charts I might have had to endure 30 consecutive losing years, which i suspect would be a little more problematic
 

Commodity_Trader

Junior member
43 2
It can be trending for one person (who is looking at a particular timeframe) and ranging for another. So which is it doing? Trending or ranging?

that kind of statement can only have some meaning when you clearly define what it means to be trending (and your definition may be different from others).

in T.A there is only two kind of trends , 1>ordinary trend with successive higher highs & higher lows 2 >accelerated trend (rapid price move with at least 45 degrees angle ).the first one occurs 30 % of time in ANY timeframe.for example if you observe a year on daily bars,on average ,30 % of time it is trending . if u see a trading day on 5 minute chart, on average, 30 % of time it is trending too.the fact that u said is not in contrast with what i said.

Surely longer time frames usually equal bigger differences in highs/lows. So stops/targets are likely to be bigger and thus profits/losses are likely to be bigger.
of course , but what about opportunity factor ? a lower timeframe trader may have much much more opportunities than a higher timeframe trader which affects performance and final results.

Then factor in consecutive losses. I think my longest streak has been around 14 trades, which for me was over and done with in a few days. If trading weekly charts I might have had to endure 30 consecutive losing years, which i suspect would be a little more problematic
it 's a great point that u mentioned .lower timeframe has lower stress and it affects trading in significant way.

Eventually we find the appropriate comfort zone that fits our lifestyle and personality - it is not just about chasing trade opportunities and dollars.
exactly , edge and holy grail is when anyone finds a system that fits his/ her own character
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
in T.A there is only two kind of trends , 1>ordinary trend with successive higher highs & higher lows 2 >accelerated trend (rapid price move with at least 45 degrees angle ).the first one occurs 30 % of time in ANY timeframe.for example if you observe a year on daily bars,on average ,30 % of time it is trending . if u see a trading day on 5 minute chart, on average, 30 % of time it is trending too.the fact that u said is not in contrast with what i said.

I don't agree there are only two kinds of trend, but anyway to what you've said:

For number 2, the angle on a typical bar chart is not scale invariant, from which it follows that the angle is irrelevant on such a chart, so we can't define trend in that way (unless we use a particular type of chart).

As for the first 1, the number of highs and lows depends on the timeframe, because a lower timeframe will often have more highs and lows which mean the trend as you've defined it, is timeframe dependent.

Lastly, you can make a choice of timeframe and define a trend, but I'm still yet to see that on every instrument on any timeframe it trends 30% of the time. Do you have proof of that?
 

Commodity_Trader

Junior member
43 2
Lastly, you can make a choice of timeframe and define a trend, but I'm still yet to see that on every instrument on any timeframe it trends 30% of the time. Do you have proof of that?
of course there is no proof for anything in T.A . we are speaking of probabilities & not about certain events. the second type of trend is my favourable setup. which i wait for pullback of price .above gann 45 degree. which is called accelerated trend.
 

the hare

Senior member
2,949 1,283
45 degrees
 

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Lee Shepherd

Senior member
2,164 573
in T.A there is only two kind of trends , 1>ordinary trend with successive higher highs & higher lows 2 >accelerated trend (rapid price move with at least 45 degrees angle ).the first one occurs 30 % of time in ANY timeframe.for example if you observe a year on daily bars,on average ,30 % of time it is trending . if u see a trading day on 5 minute chart, on average, 30 % of time it is trending too.the fact that u said is not in contrast with what i said.

Interesting point about the 45 degree angle, again this is (sorry) useless. It depends on how much data you have on the screen to get the pitch and naturally what charting package/provider you use.

A simple example of this is zoom out 1 click and it pitches higher, zoom in and it reduces etc. How much data is present is dependent on pitch. I won't show any examples as we all have chart access here and we can all do this simple exercise.

In answer to the question in hand: the answer is no. Obviously if it were true then all the big boys would be trading lower time frame and no positions would ever be held. It is true however that markets will range more than they trend but again depends on how much data you use and on what time frames.

Regards,

Lee
 

the hare

Senior member
2,949 1,283
Blue Line Jumps 11 Percent | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

Reames also warned that the upward angle of the line, which most analysts agreed was approximately 80 degrees, may have been exaggerated by the way the graph was drawn.

"The stuff that's written along the bottom of the graph is all squished together, making the line look a lot more impressive than it is," Reames said. "Had that same stuff been spread out more, the line would have looked a lot less steep."

I think we need a bigger lulz boat
 
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DionysusToast

Legendary member
5,963 1,501
Price is the same no matter what time frame you are looking at (or chart type). Your interpretation of what is happening is what's important.

Peter

+1

Where's it been, where's it going?

As a day trader, I use a timeframe where I can see the end of the last day and the morning of the trading day on the chart. I only trade mornings (Eurex, then US). So on the Bund, it's about 3-400 on the ES about 7-800 (ticks).

If I went too low, I wouldn't really have any clue what the bigger picture was. If I went too high, I wouldn't see the major intraday moves. within the extremes, doesn't matter.

So a swing trader using a yearly chart would probably be screwed but a daily vs a 4 hour - can't see how it would matter,
 

DionysusToast

Legendary member
5,963 1,501
Because it isn't even true. It's just vague and unhelpful. It can be trending for one person (who is looking at a particular timeframe) and ranging for another. So which is it doing? Trending or ranging?

that kind of statement can only have some meaning when you clearly define what it means to be trending (and your definition may be different from others).

Might be helpful if you saw the market as being in 'price discovery mode' and then 'trading around value' mode.

Sort of like if oranges became more popular, the prices would shoot up and eventually level out. People wouldn't stop buying oranges totally as the price shot up but there would be prices up above where enough people backed off to see demand fall off, there would be prices down below where enough people jumped on to see demand increase. Price would go back and forth between these levels until some driver moved them up/down again.

You'd see the moves up as discovery and trade them accordingly, then - like on the ES right now, you'd see a pullback as having the potential to establish a new 40, 60,70 point range that we could trade around for a month or two before going into price discovery mode again.

I think the 70/30% rule is a bit suspect but I think that expecting a range after a period of price discovery helps you with defining scenarios that could play out and then trade off them.
 

Commodity_Trader

Junior member
43 2
Interesting point about the 45 degree angle, again this is (sorry) useless.


In answer to the question in hand: the answer is no. Obviously if it were true then all the big boys would be trading lower time frame and no positions would ever be held. It is true however that markets will range more than they trend but again depends on how much data you use and on what time frames.
lee, one of my favourate trend following setup is price trading & then pull back above gann 45 degrees ,and i wait for break high of that pullback , i am trading this system at least 3 months with real money and i have positive results on that , while only i have 30 % hit rate, but my gain is much more than i loose .so it is not useless , every single idea in trading is valuable as long as u can cut your losses short & let profits run.

dont u think the big boys dont trade lower timeframes because they have big capitals or it's just because trading in lower timeframe is a total loss ?

As a day trader, I use a timeframe where I can see the end of the last day and the morning of the trading day on the chart. I only trade mornings (Eurex, then US). So on the Bund, it's about 3-400 on the ES about 7-800 (ticks).

If I went too low, I wouldn't really have any clue what the bigger picture was. If I went too high, I wouldn't see the major intraday moves. within the extremes, doesn't matter.

So a swing trader using a yearly chart would probably be screwed but a daily vs a 4 hour - can't see how it would matter,

tnx for great hint

Might be helpful if you saw the market as being in 'price discovery mode' and then 'trading around value' mode.

Sort of like if oranges became more popular, the prices would shoot up and eventually level out. People wouldn't stop buying oranges totally as the price shot up but there would be prices up above where enough people backed off to see demand fall off, there would be prices down below where enough people jumped on to see demand increase. Price would go back and forth between these levels until some driver moved them up/down again.

You'd see the moves up as discovery and trade them accordingly, then - like on the ES right now, you'd see a pullback as having the potential to establish a new 40, 60,70 point range that we could trade around for a month or two before going into price discovery mode again.

I think the 70/30% rule is a bit suspect but I think that expecting a range after a period of price discovery helps you with defining scenarios that could play out and then trade off them.
this idea seems true, & paul levine had the same beliefs about market . he believed price move is a series of interchangeable resistance and support levels that they change into each other .....as after end of trend usually there is a range bound so it would be to some extend helpful .can u tell me what do u think about 30 /70 & whats seems more realistic to you ?
 
 
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