Do you use Fundamentals

[charliechan]

well, ive been out enjoying myself this weekend - too much time spent in front of the screens during the week, so i usually give myself a break at the weekend.

nice to feel wanted though folks

socrates - fire away! extra gunpowder though!! its 12:10 and time i did my prep before chicago opens. ducati doesnt deserve anymore of my attention (until next time), or your time for that matter, but the sun is shining so we ought to afford our selves some fun.

lion - you still appear to be making the mistake of dismissing valuable information from other sources. you seem to have a deep bias here - perhaps through past bad experience. i dont care what value you think of fundamentals. the only way you make money is by understanding order flow. END OF, FULL STOP, PERIOD. (in what ever time frame suits). if you dont grasp order flow you are HISTORY. the reason for the order flow then becomes academic. technical, fundamental, sun spots, i dont give a hoot.

you dont seem to have grasped this one yet, so i advise you learn quick if you want to make money. you wont find that in your zulu principals, ft, company blurb etc. good luck!!

 

[LION63]

CharlieChan,

Okay it seems that you are a true genius so you do not need to cling to Socrates' coat tails. As that is the image that you seek to portray to the rest of us mere mortals, why do you not take up the task of providing the information/answers as opposed to letting Socrates do it for you. We have all waited with bated breath for the return of 'the man' and now all you need to do is show that you are worthy.

So far all you have done is criticise others for a perceived lack of knowledge, post drivel and hide in Socrates' shadow. PLEASE show us that you are not an empty vessel and that you do have the backbone to finish what you started.

 

[pb]

Blimey, now there is one 3-way and another 2-way fight going on here.

Chill, guys. Life's too short. And it's a beautiful day outside.

 

[charliechan]

Blimey, now there is one 3-way and another 2-way fight going on here.

Chill, guys. Life's too short. And it's a beautiful day outside.

exactly!! the voice of reason speaks.

i have no bones with anyone and i have nothing to prove to anyone.

my point is simply that there is more to making money than reading a balance sheet. yes it may help, but it really is a trivial point.

i make no claims to my ability here and never will do. how i go about my business IS my business and is very unlikely to be divulged here - especially to children who take great resentment when a bright light is aimed into the darkness. i guess pond life prefers to stay in the deep dank dark corners of ignorance and insult & provoke those with different opinions. such is life.

however, i dont mind pointing people in the direction where they may learn something - if they deem the information to be useful - but that is their decision and i will not force it upon them.

perhaps lion you may afford the same gratitude to myself instead of behaving as you do - trying to provoke and challenge others/question their motives from a condescending point?

if we can agree that for price to move there must be an imbalance of orders to move price. can we agree on this? i do hope so as it is fundamental to speculation (excuse the pun).

can we also establish that you are indeed speculating on price movement in order to earn your crust, rather than picking up yield?

i think it is important to agree on these 2 issues as adults, and without losing our calm before continuing. does this seem fair?

if we cant then we will have to agree to disagree and have no more tantrums. what do you say?

 

[LION63]

CharlieChan,

I refer you to paragraph 3 of post 47. I do not care how people make their money and I have always shown total respect to all those that talk about different strategies and methods provided they know what they are talking about. However, I do take issue with those that would seek to cast dispersions on what I say or do in a personal manner. If you had sought to disagree with what I was saying on a strictly professional basis I would not have provided the retort that I did. Do you really think that I care what people may or not think of my trading methods? As long as I make money in the markets it of no consequence what the thoughts are until individuals make it personal. Whilst I do not find it palatable, I can mix it with the best and the worst but what does it benefit anyone here? Nothing. Banter is good because it lightens the mood of the giver, receiver and onlookers; insults are bad because they leave a bad taste in the mouth and nobody learns anything from it.

 

[barjon]

Blimey, now there is one 3-way and another 2-way fight going on here.

Chill, guys. Life's too short. And it's a beautiful day outside.

Thanks, pratbh, for leaping in. Should have been doing my job better

I've thought for some time that the gentle (and often not so gentle) banter here is obscuring what could be a very interesting debate. Partly about timescale, partly about the balance in profiting via growth and income and partly about the relative merits of different sorts of analysis related to the first two. If protaganists would concentrate on constructive debate rather than anything else I'm sure there would be benefit. Over to you..........

good trading

jon

 

[OpenMind]

the only way you make money is by understanding order flow.

Hi Charliechan,
I am not entirely clear about what you mean by order flow. Could you explain a little please? Do you mean supply/demand or level 2 or something like that?

Many thanks.

 

[charliechan]

yes - similar.

basically getting a good idea on where orders are and the levels that orders will be. technical levels are good place to start. once you know where the orders are you know if a move is real or false and trade accordingly.

time & sales is also vital to read the flow as it is happening if you are a day trader.

personally i dont see much value in level 2 or depth of market info as most of the orders placed there are only meant to spook the new guy. eg, if you have 300 lots on the offer, you will often see a lot of them disappear (cancelled) as soon as a bite is taken.

this stuff can be seen on ANY time frame.

fundamental info can also be useful here. if the asset has some fundamental attribute that you believe will cause order flow (in what ever direction), you can use that inflow to make your money. this is where the old saying 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' comes from.

 

[SOCRATES]

rotflmao-

so you think all the over paid research toadies & investment bankers spend their time thumbing through 10k filings (let me guess - on yahoo.com right!! or barons.com). hahahaha.

as for market efficiency - well again you still have not given anything other than an opinion. academic study of market efficiency has little bearing on the realities. perhaps you could explain how/when a market becomes 'inefficient' as you call it, and how/why fundamentals are more useful under these circumstances - as you clearly state?

can you also tell me then how this would relate to something like a fixed income market? this would be a very 'efficient' market (i assume - not sure what you think efficient means yet). fundamentals are probably quite useful here due to the longer term effects of economic business cycle & fiscal controls. yet this is obviously in contradiction to your ideas. perhaps you could explain. please?

finally, you mention that arbitrage is used to exploit fundamentals in the short term. please could you also explain what you mean by arbitrage? my definition of arbitrage is exploiting price anomalies in two similar and related markets (eg ny silver v london silver). i am totally ignorant to how this is a condition based on fundamentals. it would (if we have to pin labels here) be technical - as the price of one market becomes out of line with the other - usually based on the order flow differences between the markets. do enlighten me.

i am looking forward to your answers and the enlightenment they will surely bring!

happy days.

Listen ducatti, all of the above,that charliechan challenges you with, hinges on shifts that occur in supply demand functions, and not fundamental principles.

But you obstinately persist with your hobby horses.

I have given a lot of thought to what explanation you ought to be given and in what detail, and my final conclusion is that you deserve none bar my first two lines above, which explain everything.

As a consequence of your persistent rudeness and boorishness, now you are the loser as I choose to tell you nothing additionally, except that you are wrong.

I have run out of patience and I am too busy to waste time arguing with dunces.

 

[Salty Gibbon]

I have run out of patience and I am too busy to waste time arguing with dunces.

But Soc, my friend, you have been arguing with dunces for longer than I care to remember.

Does this mean that you were not always busy ?

 

[SOCRATES]

Salty, you are right.

But then patience is like a rubber band, you know, it has a certain elasticity.

A point is reached at which the rubber band of patience is made to stretch too far..

Additionally I am always busy, but the difference is that I am in general terms, still very patient,. but no longer patient in specific terms with regard to opacity any more.

It is the rubber band of patience with regard to opacity that has finally snapped at long last.

 

[Salty Gibbon]

It is the rubber band of patience with regard to opacity that has finally snapped at long last.

Love the quote Soc :cheesy:

 

[SOCRATES]

Well, it's true, Salty, I mean to say, you know, there are limits...

 

[Salty Gibbon]

I applaud the fact that your rubber band did not snap a long time ago.

I am sure that "my rubber band of patience with regard to opacity" would have perished without trace many moons ago had I allowed myself to converse with as many dunces as you have encountered on your T2W travels.

 

[SOCRATES]

I have learnt a lot this past year, not about the markets, or trading or anything thereby connected, I might add, but about the carbunklery of humanity and of what it is really capable. I have been taught several very valuable lessons which I have learnt, and learnt well, for which I am extremely grateful. and in this regard, I would like to take this opportunity to record my sincere gratitude.

 

[ducati998]

Dimbo & Dumbo

dont care what value you think of fundamentals. the only way you make money is by understanding order flow. END OF, FULL STOP, PERIOD. (in what ever time frame suits). if you dont grasp order flow you are HISTORY. the reason for the order flow then becomes academic. technical, fundamental, sun spots, i dont give a hoot.

Order flow is simply the end result of decisions made by investors and or traders.
As such it is reliant on the underlying fundamental factors or technical factors that induce a trade to be sent.
Chart traders trade what they see on the chart.
Fundamental traders or investors, trade value, or the return that will accrue to them as identified within the fundamentals. This may be , capital gains in the stock price, dividends paid, or an arbitrage realised and actualised.

The reason for the order flow is the important aspect.
The order flow itself is merely an outcome of the inputs, the net result.

you dont seem to have grasped this one yet, so i advise you learn quick if you want to make money. you wont find that in your zulu principals, ft, company blurb etc. good luck!!

I think we have analysed it, weighed it, and measured it................and it has found to be wanting.
( enjoyed that film )

i have no bones with anyone and i have nothing to prove to anyone.

And true to your word you have proven absolutely nothing.

i make no claims to my ability here and never will do. how i go about my business IS my business and is very unlikely to be divulged here - especially to children who take great resentment when a bright light is aimed into the darkness. i guess pond life prefers to stay in the deep dank dark corners of ignorance and insult & provoke those with different opinions. such is life.

Of course you are making claims in a surreptious manner. You just are unable to provide any proof, as that of course would unmask you as a fraud and a failure, much in the same manner as Dimbo. Much talk, and absolutely no action.

if we can agree that for price to move there must be an imbalance of orders to move price. can we agree on this? i do hope so as it is fundamental to speculation (excuse the pun).

For price to move there will be an imbalance of orders.
But the real question is...............
What causes the imbalance of orders. There are a number of answers, but ultimately in all the reasons that count, it comes back to the fundamentals.

can we also establish that you are indeed speculating on price movement in order to earn your crust, rather than picking up yield?

Not "Speculating" at all.
That is what you are doing.

basically getting a good idea on where orders are and the levels that orders will be. technical levels are good place to start. once you know where the orders are you know if a move is real or false and trade accordingly.

Absolute twaddle.
Positioning of orders in the market will never verify the ultimate direction of a move.

time & sales is also vital to read the flow as it is happening if you are a day trader.

It may, or may not.
The crucial question is being able to distinguish the valuable information from the noise.

fundamental info can also be useful here. if the asset has some fundamental attribute that you believe will cause order flow (in what ever direction), you can use that inflow to make your money. this is where the old saying 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' comes from.

Twaddle.
That is a "trader" strategy. Therefore "fundamental" information is of no use to you.
As an investor, I will buy the fact, sell the rumour.

Listen ducatti, all of the above,that charliechan challenges you with, hinges on shifts that occur in supply demand functions, and not fundamental principles.

Twaddle.
And what do you think causes a shift in demand and supply parametres?
Guess again genius............fundamentals.

As a consequence of your persistent rudeness and boorishness, now you are the loser as I choose to tell you nothing additionally, except that you are wrong.

If you posted something halfway sensible I could be polite and just ignore it. Unfortunately you persist in posting utter twaddle, and in the process of my correcting all your mistakes, you end up looking like a Dimbo........................

d998

 

[LION63]

CharlieChan,

Since you state that everything is based around ORDER FLOW and absolutely nothing else, would you be kind enough to share with other members what implications this has for the DOW and or the S&P 500. Where are members going to find all this information? Whilst you are at it, you might explain the impact of order flow on currencies and where you are going to obtain this information.

Once you have explained this, you may also like to explain what happens if the stock is thinly traded or not on SETS.

 

[SOCRATES]

Navel Contemplation

I am not interested in trying to educate you ducatti, so don't even try to stinulate as me you persist, because I will not. Now go and contemplate your navel once more.

 

[charliechan]

CharlieChan,

Since you state that everything is based around ORDER FLOW and absolutely nothing else, would you be kind enough to share with other members what implications this has for the DOW and or the S&P 500. Where are members going to find all this information? Whilst you are at it, you might explain the impact of order flow on currencies and where you are going to obtain this information.

Once you have explained this, you may also like to explain what happens if the stock is thinly traded or not on SETS.

see my earlier post that your mate ducatti flames so much for how to read possible order flow.

as for the market - fx, spoo, etc it doesnt matter. all markets move along the same principals as far as how they are moved.

i know little about sets so cant comment there.

ducatti - i will not argue with you. as i stated earlier, your warped view of everything means you are in such a mess that i realise that neither YOU nor i have the time or the inclination to put you straight. all i will say to you is that seeing as you obviously have little regard for order flow, you are blissfully on the wrong side of the money every time! hahahaha.

good luck in your struggles.

 

[SOCRATES]

see my earlier post that your mate ducatti flames so much for how to read possible order flow.

as for the market - fx, spoo, etc it doesnt matter. all markets move along the same principals as far as how they are moved.

i know little about sets so cant comment there.

ducatti - i will not argue with you. as i stated earlier, your warped view of everything means you are in such a mess that i realise that neither YOU nor i have the time or the inclination to put you straight. all i will say to you is that seeing as you obviously have little regard for order flow, you are blissfully on the wrong side of the money every time! hahahaha.

good luck in your struggles.

Emphatically seconded.