Do you use Fundamentals

[LION63]

The real tragedy on these boards (and this thread is turning out to be a prime example) is that an issue/topic is raised and rather than it being dealt with or at least debated properly, we go off in a tangent. That effectively nullifies the purpose of the initial debate and no one gets anything out of it.

CharlieChan, you had earlier stated that Ducati's definition of arbitrage is wrong amongst other things and we waited over the weekend for a response which we are still awaiting. If Ducati is/was so wrong then we deserve to be put right or corrected.

You have said that fundamentals are of no relevance whatsoever and that order flow is the only thing that counts, in order to help the rest of us understand this, I have asked you to explain its effects on various instruments. You have said that otherwise one is dead and as I do not wish to die in the financial markets I am seeking information that will keep me alive.

There are two trades that I am currently considering and I wonder if you would be kind enough to explain how to trade them on order flow as you have stated that my fundamental analysis is a recipe for disaster and a total nonsense.

1. I want to take a position in the DOW within the next 24 hours and I am looking for a potential profit in
excess of 150 points.

2. I have been looking at shares in Ben Bailey Plc.

I realise that you are very busy but I am hoping that you would help me mend my ways, so any time that you can spare answering the above will be most appreciated.

 

[barjon]

lion

yes, it is something of a shame - if not a tragedy.

I see little notice was taken of my gently warning so people can stand by for the fickle finger of deletion coming into play if things don't improve.

good trading

jon

 

[SOCRATES]

The real tragedy on these boards (and this thread is turning out to be a prime example) is that an issue/topic is raised and rather than it being dealt with or at least debated properly, we go off in a tangent. That effectively nullifies the purpose of the initial debate and no one gets anything out of it.

CharlieChan, you had earlier stated that Ducati's definition of arbitrage is wrong amongst other things and we waited over the weekend for a response which we are still awaiting. If Ducati is/was so wrong then we deserve to be put right or corrected.

You have said that fundamentals are of no relevance whatsoever and that order flow is the only thing that counts, in order to help the rest of us understand this, I have asked you to explain its effects on various instruments. You have said that otherwise one is dead and as I do not wish to die in the financial markets I am seeking information that will keep me alive.

There are two trades that I am currently considering and I wonder if you would be kind enough to explain how to trade them on order flow as you have stated that my fundamental analysis is a recipe for disaster and a total nonsense.

1. I want to take a position in the DOW within the next 24 hours and I am looking for a potential profit in
excess of 150 points.

2. I have been looking at shares in Ben Bailey Plc.

I realise that you are very busy but I am hoping that you would help me mend my ways, so any time that you can spare answering the above will be most appreciated.

And a Good Afternoon to you Sir,

With regard to your second paragraph above, you may undoubtedly deserve to be put right exclusively, you yourself, that's is. But we are not here to try to educate individuals, who are unaware of the universe they briefly were allowed to inhabit, and who persist with rudeness and ignorance because it happens to be their frame of reference, you understand.

For this reason I am no longer willing to release valuable knowledge publicly.

In your case, however, if you really want to know all the mechanics of arbitrage I invite you personally and exclusively, to PM me. I propose that if you should choose to do this, I am quite happy to copy the traffic to charliechan, for his passing interest. I can clearly deduce from his posts that he is not in need of this explanation anyway.

And that is, and remains my posture.

Kind Regards.

 

[charliechan]

The real tragedy on these boards (and this thread is turning out to be a prime example) is that an issue/topic is raised and rather than it being dealt with or at least debated properly, we go off in a tangent. That effectively nullifies the purpose of the initial debate and no one gets anything out of it.

CharlieChan, you had earlier stated that Ducati's definition of arbitrage is wrong amongst other things and we waited over the weekend for a response which we are still awaiting. If Ducati is/was so wrong then we deserve to be put right or corrected.

You have said that fundamentals are of no relevance whatsoever and that order flow is the only thing that counts, in order to help the rest of us understand this, I have asked you to explain its effects on various instruments. You have said that otherwise one is dead and as I do not wish to die in the financial markets I am seeking information that will keep me alive.

There are two trades that I am currently considering and I wonder if you would be kind enough to explain how to trade them on order flow as you have stated that my fundamental analysis is a recipe for disaster and a total nonsense.

1. I want to take a position in the DOW within the next 24 hours and I am looking for a potential profit in
excess of 150 points.

2. I have been looking at shares in Ben Bailey Plc.

I realise that you are very busy but I am hoping that you would help me mend my ways, so any time that you can spare answering the above will be most appreciated.

hmm.

maybe the reason for this is simply peoples inability to read! i have quite clearly explained what arbitrage is in my post a few pages back (as socrates also points out). further more, i have not stated that fundamentals are of no relevance. i have just stated that they are frequently manipulated, and that any edge that fundamentals may provide from the public domain will more than likely be useless - simply because it is yesterdays news.

as for order flow - it does take a few years of hard work to grasp the ideas - and i am sorry, but i am unwilling to go into much detail other than the basics. anyone who cares to investigate this further must do so off their own back. if anyone thinks that any trader will (or can) divulge their craft over a few posts is in for a rude awakening. just to repeat (cos i know you have reading issues) I DONT MIND DISCUSSING BASICS BUT NOT INDEPTH MATERIAL.. especially with people like ducatti around.

why you ask for a second explanation is beyond me. furthermore, why would one so hell bent on fundamentals care for the opinion of an 'empty vessel'?

i will however give you a nudge.

1/ wanting 150 points from the dow. good for you! do you think the dow cares on how much profit you want? do you think i know if the djia will give this? no i dont! the crystal ball has yet to be invented - unless that is ben bailey plc 's business!(2/) i wouldnt put restrictions on the market or a bias for that matter. take what you can and be happy.

 

[LION63]

CharlieChan,

It is fairly clear that you are refusing to share your wealth of knowledge with the 'Dunces' like myself that are on these boards. How do you then expect us to learn if you refuse to shed light on any issue that we raise or answer any questions we ask? I realise that competition is not good for top traders but surely imparting basic understanding cannot be counter productive.

On that basis would it not be better if the well informed and knowledgeable members like yourself left the rest of us misguided traders to indulge in our folly and lose our accounts in the process?

 

[Salty Gibbon]

yes, it is something of a shame - if not a tragedy.

Nothing that transpires on these boards can ever be labelled a tragedy.

It is an unfortunate and incorrect use of a word leading to gross exaggeration of something which amounts to nothing at all really.

 

[charliechan]

Nothing that transpires on these boards can ever be labelled a tragedy.

It is an unfortunate and incorrect use of a word leading to gross exaggeration of something which amounts to nothing at all really.

yep. got it in 1!

 

[charliechan]

CharlieChan,

It is fairly clear that you are refusing to share your wealth of knowledge with the 'Dunces' like myself that are on these boards. How do you then expect us to learn if you refuse to shed light on any issue that we raise or answer any questions we ask? I realise that competition is not good for top traders but surely imparting basic understanding cannot be counter productive.

On that basis would it not be better if the well informed and knowledgeable members like yourself left the rest of us misguided traders to indulge in our folly and lose our accounts in the process?

well, perhaps you should go about your questioning in a different manner.

try being genuine, and stop trying to call peoples bluff. do you really think i will walk in to an elephant trap - especially when it hasnt even been camouflaged. dear-o-dear!

c'mon. thats just plain lazy.

 

[SOCRATES]

Dear LION, like a lot of the public, (and I may add that it is not your fault) you are under a misconception, about the real world of trading, versus the world of investing.

The misconception you are under is that all of this is some sort of amusing, entertaining, friendly game.
It is not. It may be incorrectly described, indeed promoted as such, but it is not.

What it is, in terms of what can loosely be described as competitive standards, not a game of any sort, but instead a murderous, relentless war for profits fought over, across a virtual and international battlefield by experienced, knowledgeable, battle hardened troops. Civilians that get in the way are at risk of being maimed or slaughtered.

Experienced, battle hardened participants are not singling you out or anybody else for hard treatment. What has to be done is done. The ability to enact this specific type of warlike behaviour (if you like) comes from years of experience and perfection of methodologies.

If you put several real experts into a room and you show them a scenario, they will immediately arrive at the correct conclusion independently and in seconds, and probaly via separate routes, as each of them have an edge.

The interesting part of this I can tell you is that invariably they will not sit and knit and carry out post mortems or otherwise, neither are they apt to discuss what their particular edges are.

This is the opposite to the behaviour of newbies and amateurs.

For this reason, truly accomplished traders are not inclined to reveal, discuss or make public their edges.

People who purport to have an edge and then go on to discuss it endlessly in public are guaranteed not to have any edge at all. So you must not take what charliechan replies as some sort of personal affront, it just happens to be the nature of this proffession.

I am not speaking for him or indeed defending him, I am just telling it as it is.


Kind Regards.

 

[LION63]

Very well said Socrates and I agree with you. Real traders do not cry quarter and I certainly do not. I do not take issue with what CharlieChan says, I might not agree with it but that is life. I was half hoping that he might have had a touch of sunstroke and attempted to answer the questions that were posed. He has managed to dodge the bullet.

It should be fairly obvious that no method is all encompassing and in the end it comes down to finding a method that suits the individual and getting very good at it. All methods have certain limitations and the experienced trader would have factored these in as he goes about his business. Eg. One cannot use order flow where you cannot see the order book.

What must be stressed though is that too many members cast dispersions on various trading facets without having a clue about the subject/topic. They will call an individual who compounds a lunatic and gambler but they will encourage re investment of profits. Even the clueless are aware that these are exactly the same thing.

Arbitrage was mentioned earlier on in the thread and there were at least two different definitions (at least attempted) given. How can this be? Everyone wants to latch on to these nice sounding descriptions of trading - Arbitrage, Scalping, Spread trading, Derivative trading......... Does it really matter what it is called if you know what you are doing and making money? Should it matter how you are perceived by other traders? If I choose to go long because I have grape juice and short because it was coffee would it really matter if it has worked for the last 10 years or so?

 

[charliechan]

thank you socrates.

you have explained this very well.

 

[charliechan]

Very well said Socrates and I agree with you. Real traders do not cry quarter and I certainly do not. I do not take issue with what CharlieChan says, I might not agree with it but that is life. I was half hoping that he might have had a touch of sunstroke and attempted to answer the questions that were posed. He has managed to dodge the bullet.

It should be fairly obvious that no method is all encompassing and in the end it comes down to finding a method that suits the individual and getting very good at it. All methods have certain limitations and the experienced trader would have factored these in as he goes about his business. Eg. One cannot use order flow where you cannot see the order book.

What must be stressed though is that too many members cast dispersions on various trading facets without having a clue about the subject/topic. They will call an individual who compounds a lunatic and gambler but they will encourage re investment of profits. Even the clueless are aware that these are exactly the same thing.

Arbitrage was mentioned earlier on in the thread and there were at least two different definitions (at least attempted) given. How can this be? Everyone wants to latch on to these nice sounding descriptions of trading - Arbitrage, Scalping, Spread trading, Derivative trading......... Does it really matter what it is called if you know what you are doing and making money? Should it matter how you are perceived by other traders? If I choose to go long because I have grape juice and short because it was coffee would it really matter if it has worked for the last 10 years or so?

there! you see!

your thinly guised and intended aggression is easily spotted and always avoided.

 

[LION63]

Cats are not aggressive animals.

 

[SOCRATES]

Again, I am not posting in defence of charliechan or otherwise, let this be clear.

But it is clear to me that he is not a beginner, that much is clear.

It is his prerogative to be generous with his knowledge in public or not.

In my experience it is not wise or even advisable to be generous in this way.

It is because knowledge, understanding and proficiency are the result of, to put it bluntly if you don't mind,
of personal graft, time, focus, determination and expense.

Serious hard graft over many years.

Endless screen hours over many years.

Unrelenting focus sustained under every market condition you can and cannot imagine.

Determination so dedicated it eclipses nearly everything.

Expense fathomless.

Now Sir, these are the rock bottom basic requirements that traders need in order to succeed.

What happens is that the great majority do not believe this, they take refuge in the wish that someone will charitably take them in hand and entrust them with the golden key, or, they seek in vain to solve everything easily, without effort.

It is not that experienced traders are deliberately unhelpful, it is that knowledge acquired at great personal cost is not regarded as if it were a mere trifle, and becomes the prized intellectual property of the holder and I hope you can accept this sincere explantion in the spirit it is offered

 

[LION63]

Socrates,

There used to be an advert on the billboards which went something like this....... For the times you worked 20 hours, 7 days a week; for the times you had lunch at your desk and for the times you had to forgo your holidays, this is what you deserve.... and there was a picture of a gleaming Rolls Royce. So I fully accept that it would be foolhardy to divulge too much information on these boards for free but it might not hurt to share a little. In the same instance some might say it is like throwing pearls in front of swine.

It is not implied that CharlieChan is an amateur or novice but even he is fallible and he must accept that there are areas he does not know about. That is not to demean him in any way, rather, it shows that he is human like the rest of us. After all, you do not claim (despite claims by your detractors) to know everything, on the contrary, you seek the answers and then add that to what you already know. (The wise man hears and gets wiser).

Those that you refer to as seeking knowledge are not really seeking anything at all, if they were, they would not ask the same questions over and over again. Neither would they believe that they are TA or FA experts simply because they have read 1 or 2 threads. Most reasonable individuals know and accept that there is no such thing as a free lunch (you cannot even use a public convenience for free nowadays).

However, regardless of how people perceive some of the posts on this thread, the so called freeloaders who are prepared to read it might at least begin to realise that the financial markets are a jungle (as you put it) and not a high street shop where things are ready made. Only the strong will survive and that will be through finding something that works and then sticking with it through thick and thin. There might be a need to tweak with it but it is pointless jumping from one thing to another like a prostitute.

Nevertheless, CharlieChan should accept that having denigrated certain methods, it would be an advantage to all if he at least elaborates slightly whilst keeping the real details confidential. I trust he finds this acceptable.

 

[SOCRATES]

Socrates,

There used to be an advert on the billboards which went something like this....... For the times you worked 20 hours, 7 days a week; for the times you had lunch at your desk and for the times you had to forgo your holidays, this is what you deserve.... and there was a picture of a gleaming Rolls Royce. So I fully accept that it would be foolhardy to divulge too much information on these boards for free but it might not hurt to share a little. In the same instance some might say it is like throwing pearls in front of swine.

It is not implied that CharlieChan is an amateur or novice but even he is fallible and he must accept that there are areas he does not know about. That is not to demean him in any way, rather, it shows that he is human like the rest of us. After all, you do not claim (despite claims by your detractors) to know everything, on the contrary, you seek the answers and then add that to what you already know. (The wise man hears and gets wiser).

Those that you refer to as seeking knowledge are not really seeking anything at all, if they were, they would not ask the same questions over and over again. Neither would they believe that they are TA or FA experts simply because they have read 1 or 2 threads. Most reasonable individuals know and accept that there is no such thing as a free lunch (you cannot even use a public convenience for free nowadays).

However, regardless of how people perceive some of the posts on this thread, the so called freeloaders who are prepared to read it might at least begin to realise that the financial markets are a jungle (as you put it) and not a high street shop where things are ready made. Only the strong will survive and that will be through finding something that works and then sticking with it through thick and thin. There might be a need to tweak with it but it is pointless jumping from one thing to another like a prostitute.

Nevertheless, CharlieChan should accept that having denigrated certain methods, it would be an advantage to all if he at least elaborates slightly whilst keeping the real details confidential. I trust he finds this acceptable.

My offer to you on post number 103 of this thread remains open, should you wish to take advantage of it, you are welcome.

Kind Regards.