Do you trust your own market analysis when trading?

[new_trader]

Do you trust your own market analysis when trading?

 

[Mr. Charts]

I trade purely on my own analysis, my own reading of the evidence. Of course, I have an "opinion" but trade on fact, not on a subjective view.
My "opinion" of a more generalised situation such as an overall economic situation is again my own, but I listen to other opinions then strip out any political bias from them before weighing them in any way.

Naturally enough, when the facts change, my "opinion" changes.
Richard

PS Nice to see a sensible poll for once.....though how can you call yourself a trader if you vote for options three or four ?

 

[brewski1984]

I have been thinking about how this sort of thing affects me for a while now. I read a lot of topics on here and end up with a lot of different opinions all weighted differently by how profitable the poster appears to be. These opinions are very hard to ignore when you're about to place a trade and even harder to ignore when you're in one! The way I trade suits me and I think that's one of the big differences to trusting your own analysis. Whether its right or not is a different question!

 

[Splitlink]

I have been thinking about how this sort of thing affects me for a while now. I read a lot of topics on here and end up with a lot of different opinions all weighted differently by how profitable the poster appears to be. These opinions are very hard to ignore when you're about to place a trade and even harder to ignore when you're in one! The way I trade suits me and I think that's one of the big differences to trusting your own analysis. Whether its right or not is a different question!

That's a good point and expresses the way I feel. I've been following a thread for some time and one of the posters's analysis is very popular. I trade in the knowledge that I often go against him and. if I am wrong, which we all are, at times, I blame myself not doing as he did.

I think that forums can be very instructive but, at the same time, niggling doubts creep into what, if left alone, would have been a simple decision.

I have, now, decided to trade an instrument that very few others seem to do, so I am forced to take my own counsel. It's either that or stop reading threads!

 

[Eric Geddes]

If you can trade successfully on your own analysis then why depend on others? If you can't make your own analysis then you're not a proper trader - give your money to someone else (who knows what they're doing) to trade.

Trading is all about market analysis albeit fundamentals, TA, seaweed in the wind etc etc. Know your markets, then profits are just a matter of course provided you use common sense rules and judgement.

 

[Splitlink]

You are not trying to influence me, are you? Even your post is a suggestion to someone reading it.

Eric, the point is that whatever we read has an influence on our thinking. If it it did not, sites like this would not exist.

 

[Eric Geddes]

You are not trying to influence me, are you? Even your post is a suggestion to someone reading it.

Eric, the point is that whatever we read has an influence on our thinking. If it it did not, sites like this would not exist.

Split,

I believe "that whatever we read (CAN) has an influence on our thinking" - my point is that until you develop the ability to make your own judgement and discard the crap, you will depend on others' that may or may not work.

 

[Splitlink]

Split,

I believe "that whatever we read (CAN) has an influence on our thinking" - my point is that until you develop the ability to make your own judgement and discard the crap, you will depend on others' that may or may not work.

Influence can be very subtle. Very few of us use "shrinks" but most of us would need one to get to the bottom of why we take decisions in the way that we do and most of us would, then, discover that what we thought was original was, in fact, instilled into us at a very early age.

 

[Eric Geddes]

Influence can be very subtle. Very few of us use "shrinks" but most of us would need one to get to the bottom of why we take decisions in the way that we do and most of us would, then, discover that what we thought was original was, in fact, instilled into us at a very early age.

Very true. Another reason for DIY market assessment and thus not getting contamination ......... provided of course that it works for you .....

 

[Splitlink]

provided of course that it works for you .....

That is the get out phrase to end all argument. I don't know how many times I've read it on this site but it conveys an impression of doubt that it would work for the rest of us. We, the others, are given the subtle suggestion that it would not work for us.

That means that whoever is thinking for himself is, probably, on a losing wicket.

So you see that if anyone who wants o use his own judgement on this site is likely to run into opposition.

 

[barjon]

Do you trust your own market analysis when trading?

Yes, but I do get a bit nervous when I find I'm counter to one or two I respect on here I dare say that has some influence unconsciously as decisions are being made.

 

[Eric Geddes]

That is the get out phrase to end all argument. I don't know how many times I've read it on this site but it conveys an impression of doubt that it would work for the rest of us. We, the others, are given the subtle suggestion that it would not work for us.

Wasn't intended as a "getout". My point is that what works for one (ie a definitive analysis process) may not work for another even if they understand the process. It has to be your own analysis, designed and fully understood by yourself - not some else's castoff. No magic bullet in this game.

Quote: 1. "That means that whoever is thinking for himself is, probably, on a losing wicket.

Quote: 2. So you see that if anyone who wants o use his own judgement on this site is likely to run into opposition"

1. Can't agree - it's only when you start thinking for yourself that you'll be successful.
2. Who cares about that if you're trading profitably?

 

[VielGeld]

Yes, it's my system after all. I don't know of anyone else using it, so whether or not someone else's call on direction is counter to my own doesn't mean anything. They might simply be operating on a different time frame. Or they could quite as easily be wrong themselves.

Gotta stick to your guns if they work.

 

[safvan]

It gets trickier if you look into fundamentals a lot. TA has pretty much same buy/sell points for most traders out there. It does not require much opinion unless the trader wants to trade fundamentals.

Fundamental analysis is where most of confusion should arise imho.

 

[safvan]

Its better to lose money making your own decisions than depending on some one else to make them for you.

Trader or any other business in life, the same should apply. If you are not confident enough better pass on the entire thing to others to manage but it is not wise look on to others for triggers.

 

[new_trader]

though how can you call yourself a trader if you vote for options three or four ?

242 views and only 16 votes. My guess is that the majority cannot handle admitting the truth

 

[safvan]

Trading or investing is not a full time career for most people on this board.

I am fairly positive traders that do this for a living are profitable because they have no other choice if they have to survive.

I believe an average person does not take things seriously unless their livelihood depends on it.

Any thing done "part time" has "part time" results.

 

[new_trader]

Trading or investing is not a full time career for most people on this board.

I am fairly positive traders that do this for a living are profitable because they have no other choice if they have to survive.

I believe an average person does not take things seriously unless their livelihood depends on it.

Any thing done "part time" has "part time" results.

Possibly, but then some are much more serious about making the transition from part time to full time and part time results doesn't necessarily mean poor results. Although it isn’t reflected in this poll, my guess is that the majority who visit this forum aren’t actually interested in learning how to trade. What they really want is for someone to tell them exactly when to buy and exactly when to sell as evidenced by the popularity of ‘live calls’ and ‘set-up’ threads. All you need to do is look at the ratio of eyeballs to posts those threads get compared to all the others.

 

[DionysusToast]

Of late I have been trading the ES primarily but also the US treasuries & Ze Bund.

One of the things I am considering is switching off the treasuries & the bund. They are negatively correlated to the ES and I find them swaying my own analysis of the ES if they are not already doing the opposite.

So - not only do I completely avoid even hearing someone else's analysis when I'm trading - no CNBC for me - I am also getting obsessed about another instrument giving me a different opinion.

 

[Sidekicker]

Of late I have been trading the ES primarily but also the US treasuries & Ze Bund.

One of the things I am considering is switching off the treasuries & the bund. They are negatively correlated to the ES and I find them swaying my own analysis of the ES if they are not already doing the opposite.

So - not only do I completely avoid even hearing someone else's analysis when I'm trading - no CNBC for me - I am also getting obsessed about another instrument giving me a different opinion.

I learnt this the hard way when I was starting thinking I could trade every thing in sight. Now I do the FTSE and the EURUSD. I look at other stuff but never ever trade them due to all the market correlations. I may even reduce it down to just the FTSE.