Do you have an "edge" in your trading?

new_trader said:
I didn't fail. I chose not to in the same way you choose not to make live calls.
Click to expand...
You’ve accidentally hit the nail on the head. If I had said I was going to make live calls and then didn’t – that would be failing to do something I said I was going to do.

new_trader said:
I could only fail if I made an attempt, surely?
That’s pretty much what we all thought too.

new_trader said:
The reason I declined was because I got the impression a few live calls didn't constitute "proof" and that I would be required to provide a deeper, more thorough explanation
Click to expand...
No, of course live calls wouldn’t, even if you inadvertently got them right. And I don’t think anyone was expecting that. They were expecting something like a, well, proof of some kind. Your words. Still. A proof of sort has been delivered and we can probably let this thread get on with discussing edges.
Click to expand...
 
Hilarymannah said:
new trader obviously knows how to trade (markets are definately NOT random)
Most traders who state that most of the movements in the market are noise (hahaha),..are extremely deluded !! (and also tend to parrot what they hear, rather than individual investigation)
Click to expand...

Wouldn't you say that the smaller the TF you use you eventually get to the place where price is simply random movement/noise?
 
Black Swan said:
Nonsense,Tony posted one of the best single posts I've read (on any trading forum) in relation to how to trade using PA, levels, etc..

Not going to search for it, perhaps cv could post it up, or a link if he's better at retrieving threads things being a mod and all..?
Click to expand...

There are simply too many to choose from. If members want to learning about trading then they can do the legwork...same as everybody else did.

:) And another thing...stop tying to find me jobs to do...i've got multiple trades on the go here which won't manage themselves !
 
Black Swan said:
Nonsense,Tony posted one of the best single posts I've read (on any trading forum) in relation to how to trade using PA, levels, etc..

Not going to search for it, perhaps cv could post it up, or a link if he's better at retrieving threads things being a mod and all..?
Click to expand...
Thanks BS. I have no recollection of every making any good posts, but in any event, let's not divert this thread from it's already massively diverted route. I'll be off shortly as one of my edges is avoiding flatlines.
 
Hilarymannah said:
It takes a lot of skill to read between the lines,. not only in trading,.but also when folk reply/react to inquiry/debate,......go figure !
Listening and trading are both extremely rewarding skills (once learnt, over many years of study)
Click to expand...
Deep.
 
Found it;

May 31, 2009, 5:36pm
TheBramble
Legendary Member

Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 6,299


Why You Are Failing - and What You Need to Do

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The winning system you take from demo to live, is unlikely to be the system you end up trading successfully – if you end up trading successfully at all.

While there is a great deal of difference between trading demo funds and real funds and while there are ways to mitigate the problems you will encounter en route, you will likely find after your first set of failed trades that you’ll lose faith with your ‘winning system’ and try all number of on-the-fly fixes, new systems, signals and indicators to make up for and take your mind off your failures and prove, if only to yourself, you’re a ‘good trader’.

The thing is, the probabilities are that you’re not a good trader and that you’re far more likely to join the large percentage that fail, one or more times, before giving up for good.

If you’re lucky, you’ll find your level, hit your stride, find your metre – whatever metaphor you want to use – and it’ll click into place. You’ll no longer dread the start of a new trading day – you’ll look forward to it. You’ll no longer feel relaxed and calm only when NOT in a trade and stressed and anxious when you are. You’ll find you’re no longer looking for excuses NOT to place that trade (make a cup of tea, make a phone call, walk the dog, go for a run) – you’ll know exactly when and if to place it. You’ll no longer start to tense when your position moves against you – you’ll smile and feel good that that means you’ve just established a lower risk level, or if you’re already in profit, a higher profit level that you’ll come out at if it gets hit again. Far more of your trades will go into positive territory right off the bat and those that don’t will move against you far more quickly and let you know you were wrong without you having to hang on every up tick and down tick for – cheering one and despairing at the other – for an eternity. You’ll no longer stick to your target (an ethereal thing at best) and give back all your profits as it retreats, having reached within a few ticks of the completely arbitrary goal, you’ll let the price action let you know when it’s time to take your profits (or your losses). Each trade setup, entry, management and exit will be in perfect harmony with your system and your own personal psychological needs in relation to trading a system. You’ll be trading the perfect timeframe and the perfect system for your personality and your needs. Until you find a methodology that suits you perfectly you’re just spinning your wheels and likely bleeding capital. If you don’t feel good trading – stop. Right now. ‘Cos it ain’t going to work otherwise.

How do you find this perfectly suited system? There are as many ways as there are bods trying to find a way. Pretty unhelpful.

What’s the point of this post? I’ve just waded through an entire weekends’ worth of the normal “I want a system”, “I’ve got a system and it’ll work for you” and “How do I make Money” posts. All chasing and offering the wrong things. And they’re the wrong things because none of them know YOU or address YOUR needs.

There are an infinite number of combinations of usage of price and volume and time. Such a large set of instruments and markets they may as well be infinite. And the range between the most well informed, highly teched and savvy institutional investor and the most clueless, under-funded, inexperienced and ill-equipped mug punter is so large as to beggar belief. Where do you think you are you on the spectrum? Where do think you REALLY are on that spectrum?

A very small percentage of people make money in trading. The odds of you doing so are miniscule.

Those that are making money are using techniques of such simplicity it would amaze you. In fact, it probably wouldn’t, as you’ve already covered that in your first few months interest and education in trading – and then put it behind you as being too simple to be worth further consideration.

You’ve gone off to pursue the newest and latest fads and techniques and systems and indicators, without realising you already have all you need to make the bare bones of a system that will suit you perfectly. You’re entranced with the prospect of being a Darksider. It’s a fabrication. An attempt to create a sense of asceticism or elitism which does you no favours at all and offers you no advantage, but gives a good laugh to those that think you’re stupid enough to believe that that’s the only way to go. You’re convinced a splay of indicators, or Gann fans, or Elliott waves or Di Jango’s reversal trines will be the ‘solution’. They my or they may not be. You’re convinced that trading a pure VWAP engine with no charts or indicators at all is going to be the only way for you. You feel the raw random noise of the 1 minute chart is the only place to be or the Daily gives you the freedom to be largely relaxed in stops and targets. It makes no difference. There’s no difference in the way you make your money be it with bar charts devoid of any further information or if charts covered to the exclusion of all white space with indicators of all manner, hue and type, or a bare excel style numbers grid. Your profits are made whatever way you make them and no one way is better than any other.

But unless you’re totally in tune with the way you’re trading, you’ll feel uneasy when you’re in a trade and you’ll fear the trade moving against you and you’ll feel varying degrees of pain when it does. Your profits will be fewer and smaller than your losses and you wont have any confidence in what you’re doing and you’ll feel insecure, lacking, a loser and a failure. What to do? Stop. Simply stop. You’re not going to be consistently profitable trading if this is where you’re at.

Go back to basics. Look at the charts, with whatever indicators you want to be using and just LOOK. Simple stuff like lower lows, lower highs or higher lows, higher highs. If you can’t see them – they’re not there. If you can see them –what is that telling you? They’re giving you direction, entry, S&R and exit points. How much more could you ask for?

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/63278-why-you-failing-what-you-need-do.html#post783268
 
So when someone claimed they were about to prove that markets were non-random, I was genuinely interested. And then the thread became complete b0ll0cks.

Maybe Mr TheBramble is right, 99% of the people on this site are talking crap. Maybe I do too.
 
Nice post Black Swan, but watch out, everyone mis-spells minuscule as "miniscule".

(Apart from Howard Cojones, who knows how to spell that one)
 
meanreversion said:
Nice post Black Swan, but watch out, everyone mis-spells minuscule as "miniscule".

(Apart from Howard Cojones, who knows how to spell that one)
Click to expand...

Not mine bud, Bramble's, I found it when I searched the archive of reps I'd given out which are mainly for lulz but for him, bbmac and for a few others it's always been for trading reasons. (5hite all else to do today, only taken the one trade, long on EJ this morning)
 
These markets are unusually b0ll0cks right now. The moves usually start in Dec/Jan when people position themselves for the new year, but there ain't a lot going on right now. I reckon 'tis the calm before the storm. Something truly random is about to happen.

Wait a minute, it can't, the markets aren't random. Ho hum.
 
Black Swan said:
Found it;

May 31, 2009, 5:36pm
TheBramble
Legendary Member

Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 6,299


Why You Are Failing - and What You Need to Do

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The winning system you take from demo to live, is unlikely to be the system you end up trading successfully – if you end up trading successfully at all.

While there is a great deal of difference between trading demo funds and real funds and while there are ways to mitigate the problems you will encounter en route, you will likely find after your first set of failed trades that you’ll lose faith with your ‘winning system’ and try all number of on-the-fly fixes, new systems, signals and indicators to make up for and take your mind off your failures and prove, if only to yourself, you’re a ‘good trader’.

The thing is, the probabilities are that you’re not a good trader and that you’re far more likely to join the large percentage that fail, one or more times, before giving up for good.

If you’re lucky, you’ll find your level, hit your stride, find your metre – whatever metaphor you want to use – and it’ll click into place. You’ll no longer dread the start of a new trading day – you’ll look forward to it. You’ll no longer feel relaxed and calm only when NOT in a trade and stressed and anxious when you are. You’ll find you’re no longer looking for excuses NOT to place that trade (make a cup of tea, make a phone call, walk the dog, go for a run) – you’ll know exactly when and if to place it. You’ll no longer start to tense when your position moves against you – you’ll smile and feel good that that means you’ve just established a lower risk level, or if you’re already in profit, a higher profit level that you’ll come out at if it gets hit again. Far more of your trades will go into positive territory right off the bat and those that don’t will move against you far more quickly and let you know you were wrong without you having to hang on every up tick and down tick for – cheering one and despairing at the other – for an eternity. You’ll no longer stick to your target (an ethereal thing at best) and give back all your profits as it retreats, having reached within a few ticks of the completely arbitrary goal, you’ll let the price action let you know when it’s time to take your profits (or your losses). Each trade setup, entry, management and exit will be in perfect harmony with your system and your own personal psychological needs in relation to trading a system. You’ll be trading the perfect timeframe and the perfect system for your personality and your needs. Until you find a methodology that suits you perfectly you’re just spinning your wheels and likely bleeding capital. If you don’t feel good trading – stop. Right now. ‘Cos it ain’t going to work otherwise.

How do you find this perfectly suited system? There are as many ways as there are bods trying to find a way. Pretty unhelpful.

What’s the point of this post? I’ve just waded through an entire weekends’ worth of the normal “I want a system”, “I’ve got a system and it’ll work for you” and “How do I make Money” posts. All chasing and offering the wrong things. And they’re the wrong things because none of them know YOU or address YOUR needs.

There are an infinite number of combinations of usage of price and volume and time. Such a large set of instruments and markets they may as well be infinite. And the range between the most well informed, highly teched and savvy institutional investor and the most clueless, under-funded, inexperienced and ill-equipped mug punter is so large as to beggar belief. Where do you think you are you on the spectrum? Where do think you REALLY are on that spectrum?

A very small percentage of people make money in trading. The odds of you doing so are miniscule.

Those that are making money are using techniques of such simplicity it would amaze you. In fact, it probably wouldn’t, as you’ve already covered that in your first few months interest and education in trading – and then put it behind you as being too simple to be worth further consideration.

You’ve gone off to pursue the newest and latest fads and techniques and systems and indicators, without realising you already have all you need to make the bare bones of a system that will suit you perfectly. You’re entranced with the prospect of being a Darksider. It’s a fabrication. An attempt to create a sense of asceticism or elitism which does you no favours at all and offers you no advantage, but gives a good laugh to those that think you’re stupid enough to believe that that’s the only way to go. You’re convinced a splay of indicators, or Gann fans, or Elliott waves or Di Jango’s reversal trines will be the ‘solution’. They my or they may not be. You’re convinced that trading a pure VWAP engine with no charts or indicators at all is going to be the only way for you. You feel the raw random noise of the 1 minute chart is the only place to be or the Daily gives you the freedom to be largely relaxed in stops and targets. It makes no difference. There’s no difference in the way you make your money be it with bar charts devoid of any further information or if charts covered to the exclusion of all white space with indicators of all manner, hue and type, or a bare excel style numbers grid. Your profits are made whatever way you make them and no one way is better than any other.

But unless you’re totally in tune with the way you’re trading, you’ll feel uneasy when you’re in a trade and you’ll fear the trade moving against you and you’ll feel varying degrees of pain when it does. Your profits will be fewer and smaller than your losses and you wont have any confidence in what you’re doing and you’ll feel insecure, lacking, a loser and a failure. What to do? Stop. Simply stop. You’re not going to be consistently profitable trading if this is where you’re at.

Go back to basics. Look at the charts, with whatever indicators you want to be using and just LOOK. Simple stuff like lower lows, lower highs or higher lows, higher highs. If you can’t see them – they’re not there. If you can see them –what is that telling you? They’re giving you direction, entry, S&R and exit points. How much more could you ask for?

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/63278-why-you-failing-what-you-need-do.html#post783268
Click to expand...

I thought this thread was to discuss your edge ?
 
meanreversion said:
These markets are unusually b0ll0cks right now. The moves usually start in Dec/Jan when people position themselves for the new year, but there ain't a lot going on right now. I reckon 'tis the calm before the storm. Something truly random is about to happen.

Wait a minute, it can't, the markets aren't random. Ho hum.
Click to expand...

Dunno, been some cracking swings on some FX pairs over the past 2 weeks.
 
tHE MOVEMENT ON CABLE AT 9.30 GMT THIS MORNING WAS CERTAINLY anything but random
 
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