Do you have an "edge" in your trading?

I'd like to apologise to other members for letting things get to this stage. Even I am embarrassed.

NT getting back to non-random…Let me help you in as simplistic a manner as I can possibly construct.

Is every up bar followed by a down bar?

For any reasonable sample is:-

Every sequence of up bar followed by two down bars matched by an approximately equal (+/- square root sample size) a sequence of a down bar followed by two up bars?

Every sequence of two up bars followed by two down bars matched by an approximately equal (+/- square root sample size) a sequence of two down bars followed by two up bars?

Continue constructing sequence masks….
…..until you run out of sequence masks….

Well actually, you wont have to wait that long. Even small sequences will show a definitive deviation from equality giving you a reasonable basis for making an assumption that price movement is non-random. Not that it matters.

Non-deterministic price movement (if it was) would feel exactly the same to you as it being deterministic but unknowable.
 
TheBramble said:
I'd like to apologise to other members for letting things get to this stage. Even I am embarrassed.

NT getting back to non-random…Let me help you in as simplistic a manner as I can possibly construct.

Is every up bar followed by a down bar?

For any reasonable sample is:-

Every sequence of up bar followed by two down bars matched by an approximately equal (+/- square root sample size) a sequence of a down bar followed by two up bars?

Every sequence of two up bars followed by two down bars matched by an approximately equal (+/- square root sample size) a sequence of two down bars followed by two up bars?

Continue constructing sequence masks….
…..until you run out of sequence masks….

Well actually, you wont have to wait that long. Even small sequences will show a definitive deviation from equality giving you a reasonable basis for making an assumption that price movement is non-random. Not that it matters.

Non-deterministic price movement (if it was) would feel exactly the same to you as it being deterministic but unknowable.
Click to expand...

Very impressive! Everyone, pay attention to TheBramble. Now, WHERE DID YOU PLACE YOUR TRADES? Or were you LYING?
 
I don't do live calls. But if you hunt around there are a few that do. And good for them.

Until you find a method of your own, it's probably better than nothing. In fact, given your performance today, even when you find a method of your own, I'd suggest you just go on taking those tips from others. They do seem to have a clue.
 
new_trader said:
OK, no live call then? Apart from "F*ck, there goes my stop!"
Click to expand...

On a less than totally jocular note, that thread where I was giving (hopefully somewhat humorous) ‘live trading calls’, one of which you cite, were pretty much where I’ve been from time to time over the years. And I challenge any trader who has made the grade to claim never to have been there themselves. It’s just part of the curve.
 
TheBramble said:
On a less than totally jocular note, that thread where I was giving (hopefully somewhat humorous) ‘live trading calls’, one of which you cite, were pretty much where I’ve been from time to time over the years. And I challenge any trader who has made the grade to claim never to have been there themselves. It’s just part of the curve.
Click to expand...

That isn't the point. It's not about where people once were. You make many claims, post theoretical mumbo-jumbo and booklearned jargon but you have never, ever, not once delivered anything in practice.
 
Hilarymannah said:
new trader obviously knows how to trade (markets are definately NOT random)
Click to expand...
Obviously? Why obviously?

And we’re not arguing the toss over whether the markets are random or not. NT stated he was going to prove they were non-random. He failed to even attempt what he claimed he was going to do. No surprise there.

I suspect the majority of traders believe the market isn’t random, otherwise they simply wouldn’t be trading them. Having said that, you could still play along with a non-random approach in a totally random universe and still make a profit. Long stretches of randomness look strangely coherent under the right circumstances. Let’s all them trends for the sake of argument.

Hilarymannah said:
Most traders who state that most of the movements in the market are noise (hahaha),..are extremely deluded !! (and also tend to parrot what they hear, rather than individual investigation)
Click to expand...
How do you know all this? Do you know most traders? Are you NTs Mrs? Was that your, erm….well, have a good holiday anyway.
 
TheBramble said:
NT stated he was going to prove they were non-random. He failed to even attempt what he claimed he was going to do. No surprise there.
Click to expand...

I didn't fail. I chose not to in the same way you choose not to make live calls. I could only fail if I made an attempt, surely? The reason I declined was because I got the impression a few live calls didn't constitute "proof" and that I would be required to provide a deeper, more thorough explanation ie/ My methodology. I'm not going to do that TheBramble...you keep playing with your uppy downy bars or whatever :LOL:
 
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When I first joined these forums, I thought oh, that chap is a "Legendary Member'. Obviously a wise old soul who has been trading for some time, or at the very least posting about trading for some time. He must know a thing or two. Now I realise that one can become a 'legend' simply by having lots of petty arguments about trivial matters, and I am no longer in awe....
 
Barramundi said:
When I first joined these forums, I thought oh, that chap is a "Legendary Member'. Obviously a wise old soul who has been trading for some time, or at the very least posting about trading for some time. He must know a thing or two. Now I realise that one can become a 'legend' simply by having lots of petty arguments about trivial matters, and I am no longer in awe....
Click to expand...
It's not just NT Barramundi. There are many like him.
 
newtrader has made a few decent realtime calls recently, from what I remember...
 
new_trader said:
That isn't the point. It's not about where people once were. You make many claims, post theoretical mumbo-jumbo and booklearned jargon but you have never, ever, not once delivered anything in practice.
Click to expand...

Nonsense,Tony posted one of the best single posts I've read (on any trading forum) in relation to how to trade using PA, levels, etc..

Not going to search for it, perhaps cv could post it up, or a link if he's better at retrieving threads things being a mod and all..?
 
TheBramble said:
Obviously? Why obviously?

And we’re not arguing the toss over whether the markets are random or not. NT stated he was going to prove they were non-random. He failed to even attempt what he claimed he was going to do. No surprise there.

I suspect the majority of traders believe the market isn’t random, otherwise they simply wouldn’t be trading them. Having said that, you could still play along with a non-random approach in a totally random universe and still make a profit. Long stretches of randomness look strangely coherent under the right circumstances. Let’s all them trends for the sake of argument.

How do you know all this? Do you know most traders? Are you NTs Mrs? Was that your, erm….well, have a good holiday anyway.
Click to expand...

It takes a lot of skill to read between the lines,. not only in trading,.but also when folk reply/react to inquiry/debate,......go figure !
Listening and trading are both extremely rewarding skills (once learnt, over many years of study)
 
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