Do it!

[fudgestain]

The 3rd of Ruth Barrons Roosevelt's 7 Rules is "Do it."

In my corporate days, coming through the route of a Ldn open outcry dealer (and subsequently managing plays in futures in Ldn & NY), I found myself amazed to have to overcome and master the "Do it" part of online trading.

I say 'amazed' .. more like exasperation at the time. You see.. you know .. your high probabilities are backing you. Dear God , you don't press the mouse and trade the requisite buy or sell; you mentally watch the market verify the ensuing gain.

Here I am referring to the Dow .. but no doubt it can be other instruments.

Does it not matter for you because your position taking is usually not sub-hour or not intra-day? Or simply have you always been as smooth as butter making your entries (ie when entering your trades)? Are there pitfalls? Can there still be a risk for you between waiting a tad too long and impulsively plunging in?

 

[rglenn]

Remember there is always a 50% chance that your trade will be wrong.

For the more astute amongst us that maybe 40% or even 30%.

You must always have a built in provision in any system or method to counteract this scenario then you can be confident with all your entries regardless.

This is my ultimate aim and determination to achieve and I am not very far from it.

As the saying goes- a person never stop learning until they die.

I am willing to learn from anyone who is willing to teach.

 

[JeanM]

I read somewhere that it is "Do it, do it now, do it often".
I think the "do it now" is the hard part. The temptation is to re-check everything looking for that certainty that you know doesn't exist. By the time youv'e done this the price has moved in the direction you wanted it to. Then you decide youv'e missed it and it is too risky to get in now only to see it take of!!!

 

[fudgestain]

JeanM, you very neatly descibe the syndrome.

Rglenn, you say that "there is always a 50% chance that your trade will be wrong".

I have to admit that in fashioning my methodology, it took about 8 months work, solid - usually all day, 7 days a week. You have to amass and test the necessary data. The Dow is hugely hugely attractive because its gyrations, daily, smaller and larger, offer a gigantic abundance of points. So it meant rejecting methods which on backtesting did not provide a big enough return or put another way, the plus margin was too low going along the time axis - remember the limitation became for me to exploit all the Dow gyrations, say, for the first half hour and then the next one hour. Of course the whole 6 and half hours can be exploited.

The only real operational problem I then encountered was an initial one of often failing the "Do it" test.

Rglenn, is it your "ultimate aim and determination" in your own approach to reduce error from 30% or 40% down to zero?

 

[rglenn]

Fudgestain

My aim is always to get a system to give me that 100% win every time. I know that nothing is impossible so my aim is always high.

But it is going to take a little while and as I am not dead yet there is still time.

At present my method is much greater than 50% so I am going in the right direction.

 

[martinwalker]

100%? gordon bennett!!!!
i'm only on around 80% win rate and i thought that was good
m

r u being realistic?

 

[JonnyT]

rglenn,

Who are you trying to kid.

No one, or no system will get 100% success rate. Most successful systems have success rates less than 50%, but the winners are bigger than the losers.

In my view thats what you should be looking for. A method is more robust if the average winner is much bigger than the average loser, rather than having a high success rate.

JonnyT

 

[martinwalker]

100%? you've got to laugh! which planet are u heading for?
will you get there? u want 100%?
pray,pray,pray - is the only way
dream on mate
m

 

[Mr. Charts]

Hi Martin,
Only 80%? I'll give you a call and see if I can't get you up a bit higher than that ;-))
R

 

[rglenn]

There is no harm in trying is there!

It's because people think that it is not achievable why no one trys.

If you are satisfied with what you have that's fine but don't try to stop me because I want to be extraordinary.

 

[JonnyT]

Hi rglenn,

Agreed no harm in trying, but 100% is rather like Saddam Husseins election victory.

JonnyT

 

[oatman]

Fudgestain, which open outcry market(s) :?:

 

[rossored]

Fudgestain, you intrigue me, you really do.

When you first appeared on the site not so very long ago, you gave the impression of having little or no understanding of the futures markets. You know the thread I refer to, but here it is anyway :

http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/showthread.php?s=&postid=40460#post40460

However, it would appear that things are not quite as they seem :cheesy: and you actually are quite knowledgable about not just the US markets, but the industry in general, particularly with your reference about being a dealer and managing trades on NY futures.

Cheers anyway,

RR

 

[fudgestain]

Yes, Rossored, you are right, I did ask for directions and I think I asked some questions. You answered .. thank you again.

Doesn't matter how much one knows, even in a specialist category, its always amazing how there can be things one doesn't know or should know .. sometimes quite obvious to others. I admit it.

I still do ask questions .. but hopefully I can put some of my minor observations back into the general 'pot'; I know there is stuff here that you and others say which I can and do find instructive.

 

[rossored]

Very well put. As you say, sometimes those "minor observations" can be major observations to everyone else.

Any input on this site is valuable. That's what we're all here for. Please dont take my last post as a criticism, merely an observation.

Cheers

 

[rglenn]

Nice one JonnyT

Just remember they haven't found him yet- So that one is still a possibility!