DJ Pivot Points

[rossored]

What's the general consensus of how effective PP's are on the Dow?

Yesterday there was some hovering around the first PP at the 9100 level - PP was actually 9103 - but we never got near R1 (9168) or S1 (9006).

Are they any more effective on other markets, do we think, or generally just another tool that is effective some days and completely useless on others?

Just as a general note, today's levels are :

PP 9103 (again)
R1 9148
S1 9066
R2 9185
S2 9021

Anyone care to guess how effective these will be today? I'd say that 9148 might be a good 'un, given the strength of that level yesterday, and prob 9103 although we're already above that pre-market.

If the general feeling is that they're worthwhile, then I'll happily rattle off a daily PP thread for all and sundry to read / analyse / shoot me down with

So, your opinions please.... (cue barrage of abuse about how my levels are 1 point out somewhere - they are all rounded up, incidentally!)

 

[Skimbleshanks]

Pivot points are in vogue at the moment. 18 months ago very few people had heard of them, now they're everywhere and there are lots of websites which offer to calculate them for you.

Unless you calculate them yourself, you won't really know exactly what they are trying to show you. And then there's the problem of which formula you use to calculate them - do you allow for the opening gap, or just use previous day's data.

There are support and resistance points at 1, 2, 3 places, and there are also intermediate pivot points (1.5, 2.5, etc), so there's probably some point which will back-fit nicely into the market.

They were originally used by floortraders who went into the pit with just the five numbers (R2 R1 PP S1 S2) in their heads or written on the backs of their hands. So perhaps the numbers are more meaningful for pit traded products rather than electronically traded ones such as ones on Eurex and Globex.

Some people are passionate about them; I'm not. A market is far more likely to obey the support and resistance points of the big boys' buying and selling programs than it is obeying pivot points, in my opinion of course.

 

[jwhite8359]

I would be most interested in seeing the DJ pivot point info on a daily basis and your post couldn't have been timed better for me.

I had a call from a friend last night to ask if i knew anything about the new Goldmine software that Mark Harniman has launched. MH is the man behind the Selecta 7 horseracing program and i seem to recall reading that before that he peddled software for financial markets. My vague recollection is that the concensus of opinion was that the guy was a crook and anything he produced should be avoided like the plague, so i'm guessing that his new DJ software is just a glorified Pivot Point calculator.

I know of someone that has just paid £5k for the new 'Goldmine' software and would be interested in comparing the daily signals generated to your pivot point calculations.

Keep us informed

JOHN

 

[rocwell]

i have used camarilla levels for a while to good effect. they are not 100% effective but i have found they have improved my returns alot. Today for instance. it suggested that resistance level 4 would be at 9156.11 on the dow. With res level 3 at 9133.

the theory is should the market reach resistance level 3, you would go short. after this if the market does not move in the anticipated direction you exit at level 4 and take a small loss or place your stop loss a few points above.

Advice is not to trade before any major economic announcement and given that today isfed rate decision day, i am out of the market. should the market breach level 4 after the announcement, i anticipate at least in the short term a rally above 9156

The reason i mention these levels is because, even though today would so far have given a modest loss, so far the high of the day has been within 5 points of where the anticipated resistance level was going to be according to the equation which in my humble opinion, given that markets have a degree of randomness and chaos is not a bad forecast

rocwell

 

[stevem12]

I have used pivot points on DJ, YM, ES & NQ or about three years now. They are like all other things sometimes they work sometimes they dont.

One thing I would say is, like all S/R levels they work best on a 2nd bounce & can offer good entry points on pull backs.

But also like all S/R levels they act like rubber bands, not blocks of concrete
Steve

 

[rossored]

Well some minor interest in my thread yesterday (!!) so I figured I'd do it for a couple more days and see how things pan out. Let me know when I start to bore you...

I don't profess to be too knowledgable about TA, so a lot of it will look like guesswork to the more seasoned traders amongst you (thats probably because it IS guesswork!!) but any input is welcome for my benefit, as well as everyone else's.

So, yesterday - imo :

Minor res around R1 @9148 - also could be attributed to some good stiff resistance around this level the day before.

Also some minor res/sup around the PP @9103 - again, not to be unexpected with the previous days faffing at this level.

R2? Totally insignificant, we didn't get near it. S1? Again, totally insignificant, just plummeted straight through it. Having said that, there was a lot of strength in the fed move, so maybe it was just an unusual day.

As for S2 @9021....well there was a bounce at @9023 back to 9045, but how much should one read into that? Your thoughts?

Todays levels :

PP 9058
R1 9116
S1 8954
R2 9220
S2 8896

My guesses? : 8896 will prob offer some minor support if the price falls through major support at 9000. As far as the PP and S1 go, well we'll have to see! Not likely imo that we'll get near R1 or R2 today, but as I tell myself all the time, just because its not likely that doesnt mean it won't happen.

Cheers,

Sorry edited the levels this afternoon - got my figs this morning from bigcharts and only just realised they were out by a country mile.

 

[ChartMan]

9182 is entirely feasable. Yesterdays drop was a panic reaction and we should recover back to " as you were" today.

 

[stevem12]

Worked quite well today on NQ. Pivot Point 1197.83, R1 1207.67. R1 was 1st hour high, then rallied strongly off Pivot about half hour later.

Took YM & ES with it on both occasions.

Steve

 

[rossored]

Day three : Rosso enters the diary room...who stays - you decide!! (in geordie accent, please)

Yesterdays levels worked okay - well, one of them seemed to, anyway : the PP at 9058. Offered some good resistance in an elastic-band way from 1650-1900hrs. None of the other levels even came close.

Todays levels (not taken from bigcharts so hopefully accurate!)

PP - 9052
R1 - 9117
S1 - 9012
R2 - 9157
S2 - 8947

Again, looking at the charts and using Chartmans superb daily analysis, I'd say that we might encounter some resistance around 9117, although 9100 on paper would present a more obvious resistance level given the channel lines. 9052 is probably still in there should we have a drop, and 9012 if it were to fall below the 9040-9050 support level.

As usual, please dont take this as advice - it's just my take on things.

Have a good weekend.

 

[ChartMan]

Spot on. Remember all these numbers are NOT cast in stone. Your suggestion of taking 9000 as opposed to 9017 is totally realistic. As it turns out, it was 9005, close enough to not matter at all. People MUST appreciate that these numbers are only approximate, and to that extent they work, mostly. Now, as for 9157, I must take you to task for not paying attention in class. The correct answer here is, of course, 9164, the magic number. Just look at the chart today. :cheesy:
9012, yes again spot on but with a wide tolerance of sideways price- 9000 to 9020.
Persevere with the calcs and integrate them with your own analysis of SR, magic numbers and the 00's and you'll probably end up with something far closer to what will actaully happen.

 

[rossored]

Sorry a bit late posting today for those of you who are following this thread - all one of you, probably!!

Right, todays "levels"

PP 9021
R1 9073
S1 8937
R2 9157
S2 8885

My thoughts ( feel free to add your comments here, I feel like I'm alone in a big room, my voice echoing off the walls - thanks for your comments though, CM - much appreciated ) :

The potential PP at 9021 has offered quite a lot in the last few days, so 9020 should be a key level imo.

As far as the other levels go - 9073? I'd say another good one to be honest, good potential around the 9070-9080 level.

8937, S1? Welll, looking back over the charts it probably won't be far off, I'd guess at 8945-ish, going on a possible R/S switch from 3rd and 9th of June.

9157, R2 - probably more like 9150, again looking back at levels from 6th,12th and 25th June.

Finally, 8885 S2 : I'd hazard a guess at a bit lower, around the 8850-8860 mark. See May 29th/30th.

Lets see how this post looks tomorrow with good old hindsight.

Cheers,

 

[rossored]

Okay, so yesterday's levels then :

Two only really came close - the PP at 9020 showed some resistance from about 1720hrs, a quick bit of support just before 2000hrs and then resistance again after the Russel3k report. Given its level of significance over the past 3 days, I'd think it will continue to be a level to watch today.

The other one, of course, was around the 9070 level as I'd guessed. The first move higher in the morning reversed sharply off th trendline coming off the previous days' lows, then rose to make a higher high later in the day at this critical level - also top of the downsloping channel, of course. Once again, none of the other levels got close.

So, today :

PP - 9008 Probably going to be significant again around the 9000 level.

R1 - 9046 In early trade this will pretty much co-incide with the top of the channel again, so should see some action in this level - 9045/9050 resistance.

S1 - 8948 Once again ties in with the 3rd and 9th of June for a possible S/R switch around the 8945 mark.

R2 - 9106 If we get to this level today (lets hope so!) we'll be well out of the top of the channel, but the 9100 figure has offered good resistance since around 24th June, so could be another one to watch.

S2 - 8910 Well if we get this low, theres a possible trendline coming off the lows of the 23rd and 26th June, which will intersect about this point, so I for one will be keeping my eyes peeled...

Other levels to watch : I'd say 9080 and 8970, which is pretty much where we're at pre-market as I write this, and - should we get there - 9150.

 

[stoploss please]

Hi Rossored

You probably already know about it but below is a link to a pivot point calculator. I posted this morning to Suns thread aswell.

It takes a few secs to plug in the numbers and calculate the results.

http://www.stelaronline.com/resource/pivot.htm

Cheers
Andy

 

[stevem12]

Some time ago I wrote myself a pivot & S/R calculator in excell. Closest thing to programming I`ve ever done :cheesy:

If one of you "techies" can tell me how, I will attache it to a post.

Steve

 

[rossored]

Thanks for your posts guys.

Steve, I already use an excel spreasheet for my calcs, as attached, probably the same as yours. My programming skills must be on a level par with yours! :cheesy:

 

[stevem12]

Rosso

They cant be that bad

 

[rossored]

Several good levels today :

S2 only gave a minor hold up on the way down this afternoon - literally a brief pip and it was through. S1 at 8945 was much more significant, hovering around this level for quite some time before bang! up to the PP at the 9000 level, then - surprise surprise - on to R1 at 9045/9050.

Wednesday, then ;

PP - 8987 : There was a bit of hesistation at this level this afternoon, so could prove to be significant if we fall through the 9k level again tomorrow, but I dont think it's likely at this level. Chartman and others tend to recommend more of a thing for round numbers, as is often the case, so round it up and just use 9000 I guess.

R1 - 9104 : Well, clearly it's going to be 9100 isn't it?

S1 - 8924 : Again, some playing there today so a level to watch if we get back through 9000 again.

R2 - 9167 : Gotta be 9150

S2 - 8807 : Can't see that one myself. Good support at 8850 but that's about it.

Other levels to watch? Apart from the obvious ones at 9000, 9050, 9100, 9150 you mean?

I have decided to continue posting on this thread until the end of this week unless someone cries out "Encore!", and will then bang it on the head on the 3rd July. Enjoy writing the stuff but don't feel I'm giving out anything that useful, or not that everyone doesn't already know anyway! I've put a crude Excel pivot point calculator in a couple of posts up, it's quite easily modified to run R3/S3 if you want it to. Just enter the daily high/low/close figures in the first column and the spreadsheet calculates the rest for you.

 

[stoploss please]

RR

Please continue. It would be interested in your a pre and post market analysis.

Cheers
Andy

 

[rossored]

So, yesterday : Dow futures were above the 9050 level pre-market, so that didn't really cause any issues.

R1 at 9100 provided some fun throughout the day, bouncing off the level several times, finally establishing a fairly solid support level - a level which most people, by the sound of it, expect to be tested today.

S1 and S2 gave nothing, obviously. R2? - Well, if you take it as 9150, then you could say it provided a wee resistance very late in the day, and I see that the futures this morning have fallen slightly. Fair to say I think that if we get above 9150 today, we'll be looking for a higher move. Agree/Disagree??

So, on to today then :

PP - 9111 : well this has got to be the support at 9100, without a doubt.

R1 - 9178 : A certain market expert (namely Ed Downs) has got 9175 down as his long entry today, obviously waiting for a solid break above the 9150 level for his entry.

S1 - 9075 : I'd be tempted to round this down to 9060-9050.

R2 - 9215 : Looking back over the charts, the 9200 level is fairly volatile, no real showing of the colours at 9215 though, so extrapolating from the other levels, it's likely to be 9200 - although as I say, most "experts" suggest this level is unlikely today.

S2 - 9007 : So if 9200 is "unlikely", does this mean we'll see a test of the 9000 level again today? Yesterdays pattern is quite bearish, so this afternoon will, as usual, reveal all.

"Happy holidays" if you're reading this stateside, and just a plain old day off if you're in the UK.

To be continued....?

 

[ChartMan]

9111 may be 9120 + 9100
9075 may be 9060/9064.
Nothing in the 9178 area so look for magic 9164?
and 9200 for 9215.