Did the EURUSD in US session Friday night make any sense?

[Eurusd Trader]

I shall not comment on the specific EURUSD move late in US session this Friday but more generally to the moves currency pairs do in US sessions Friday afternoons.

In Europe – for many years – we have always said that during this part of the trading week, you stay away. Take a long weekend and let the US traders run like chickens. That’s what they do. Moves are often totally unpredictable – likely because there is absolutely no debt in the market.

I have not seen moves in US session on Friday afternoons as any indicator of value to what is going to happen the week after – unless there have been news or data from that Friday supporting the move.

Most Fridays there aren’t any such news or data of interest – and still the US session at the end of the week shows volatility and moves. That’s why we ignore them in respect of what to do the week after.

The debt of the Foreign Exchange market you find during European opening hours. Turnover in the market then is almost three times what it is when the US session is on its own. In fact – the Asian session shows more of debt than what is the case for the US session.

Big client orders and the bigger moves by market makers are executed accordingly. You need debt in the market to do those amounts – and such debt you don’t find in the NY session. As such – you wait until the next day – and that’s when you see what volume is doing.

Sorry to say – but US session is looked upon to be one to “play” if you are in for fun – but one to avoid when you have more serious stuff to do. It’s been like this for years – and I have seen it for 34 of them.

 

[maxima]

likely because there is absolutely no debt in the market

what r u talking about?

 

[bedsit]

It did to me (and maybe to some other traders who use technical analysis)

IMO This is a text book example of a symmetrical triangle with 2 nice opportunities for a long: 1st break and 2nd retest.

 

[Eurusd Trader]

My point was only that Friday afternoon sessions in NY are a rather unpredictable sessions as the market is thinner than at almost any time during the week. To add to the same unpredictability is the fact that NY traders very often run like chickens.

 

[wackypete2]

My point was only that Friday afternoon sessions in NY are a rather unpredictable sessions as the market is thinner than at almost any time during the week. To add to the same unpredictability is the fact that NY traders very often run like chickens.

I agree with this statement, including the run like chickens part.
But as bedsit said it can be decent pickings for short term traders. I hold nothing over the weekend though.

Peter

 

[bedsit]

I agree with this statement, including the run like chickens part.
But as bedsit said it can be decent pickings for short term traders. I hold nothing over the weekend though.

Peter

Agree with you Pete. It's not a very good idea to leave it open - especially knowing about EU Economic Summit.

Also it's not my favourite to trade on Friday, but if there is a nice pattern - why not? On this occasion the pattern offered 2 nice set ups ( 2 x more than 70 pips offered) and one could have traded them both with closing all the positions before the market close.

PS I like this pattern - I'll see what happens next (so far as it doesn't break lower line it's still valid)

 

[nunrgguy]

You'll never make any sense of any of it so give up trying.
Why do you need to make sense of it??

On Friday I saw price going long, placed trade, booked 3:1. Done for the day.
This morning I saw price going down, placed trade, booked 2:1. Done for the day.

Could have got a huge move this afternoon but guess what? Already done for the day?

Does this afternoon's huge move make any sense? Does it have to? It moved big after New York open, not too much of a surprise. but does it make sense? Euro is bugg3r3d: No it doesn't. Why did it do that? Who cares!

What was happening on Friday? Who was buying Euro's? No one was buying Euros but everyone was selling dolllars. Do you need to know, do you need to care? See price move, buy or sell.

Making sense is hindsight analysis, won't get you anywhere further and won't make you any money. So why bother? Stop trying to intellectualise it. It only takes one large order coming into the market to destroy all of your carefully planned and intellecualizzzed analysis.

All you can do is try to align yourself with the tea-leaves then leave it in the hands of the gods.

Nothing is predictive, you have to be reactive.

See price moving up.

Buy.

See price moving down.

Sell.


But yeah, US session, Friday afternoon. London gone bye byes.

PS: This is just an answer to the general premise of the question as I believe the OP knows about onions anyway.

 

[bedsit]

As Nunrgguy put it - Why do you need to make sense of it?

Just follow the price, ignore the opinions and try to make money instead of sense.

IMO Good to be aware of important reports, summits etc. in order to avoid trading during that time. For example this EU summit - best to take a break from trading EUR/USD.

 

[Eurusd Trader]

I normally stay of Friday night sessions as NT traders run like chickens. The market is thin and almost any move is to start as well as to stop. In Europe there are few of us who bothers - we rather wait until Monday when liquidity is back.