Diary of a swing spread better

[chindl]

No - the trend is too well established to consider a short and requires a drop to about 1.23 or 1.235 to change that trend line within the next week. The island is a concern obviously, and like silver, it does have some volatile ranges nr the top of the range, but I see the SL coming back and that possibly may provide some momentum. Also, volume on the way down has been lower, which may mean the strength behind this downturn may not be too significant. I personally feel that currencies have retraced too quickly in sympathy with equities. Economics do point to a potentially higher dollar.
Let's see
Chris

 

[chindl]

One caveat mind you, I also thought that Gold would bounce off the 49 SMA, and that proved completely incorrect!!!!!

 

[Slapshot]

OK Slaps - here's some charts. Good day for me, even though I missed approximately 100 points with early exits and missed opps due to kiddy bed time, I still came away with no losers and 72 points to the good. Now given I have only traded the 100 ema system a couple a times in two years I am more than chuffed. Lots on offer today with Chartmans strategy, so here come the charts. I even missed an opportunity on my way home from work, but caught another as soon as I got in. Check these out and let me have comments. Exits need more work, confidence may not be there in the system yet, but I can feel it in me bones man.
And yes, I saw that top in the last hlf hr or so, gave us a pincer on the candles and then a tower to confirm the top. Candles even work on one min charts hey!?!
Well interested in gettin through the proxy BTW - will PM you my e-mail add.

For those end of dayers. I'll be looking first thing and will try and post something post PPI and pre CPI tomorrow. Very very negative day for stocks in the end I feel, even if not massively down, but I need to analyse and CPI tomorrow could change things somewhat, which is why I feel the market did not bomb completely today. A negative CPI and we could see serious downside from here. Hope you all had a good day.
Chris

Cheers for the chart Chris and congrats on a good day.

Morning session:

Good exit point on the 3 lows, this was also confirmed by the higher lows staggered either side of 16:00 on both the CCI & RSI. I have a feeling Chartman would have indicated a long from there also.

Interesting entry at 17:40ish, I would probably have taken that too, however it did venture back above the 100ema and but didn't create a new high on either the RSI or CCI. This is where I find I have difficulty. As new highs have not been made the market can't be viewed as overbought, every chance that it could go higher, failure to breach the resistance line was confirmation though. The exit though I would definately have taken with the RSI at -20 and a new low on that indicator, in hindsight the clue was that the CCI was only sat at -100, not a new low there. Exit confirmed at the 3rd higher low on the RSI at 18:40ish.

Confimation of the next short opportunity correctly identified at 19:25ish, although with more confidence an entry could have been attempted at 18:50 witht he RSI indicating a lower high and also the MACD losing strength. The descending triangle and the RSI,CCI cross overs confiming the exit without any question.

Volatile last hour, certainly the possibility of shorting at 20:45 but imo too near the close.

Great analysis mate, and congrats again on taking points off the board.

Lets see what today brings.
Good luck all.

 

[Slapshot]

Crap start to the day!

Went long off the bounce at 9am this morning and it failed. I'm kicking myself for pulling the trigger too early as it failed to breach the resistance line and headed south!

The decline has been steady but not excessive. Now got a R/S switch on the downward slope and back up to the 100ema and as I type the 100ema is providing support. Not long yet though.

 

[chindl]

Cheers Slaps - will try again today. If I do manage to try again I will post charts immediately after the close. Best of luck with it today.
Chris

 

[chindl]

Slaps, You're not applying you're principles, 20 point break would have seen the decision to trade off at your entry point. Heat of the battle hey? Also, and you prob don't need me to tell you this, would have been a great entry point on the failure confirmation. The pull back is spot on the 100 EMA, but, it was just like the failed trade, so, had I lost money I would not have made a baskervilles short there as I would have been smarting on the loss. Hey ho, it's all about probabilities, and hopefully more will be coming you're way. It's like fishing, patience patience patience, wait for the bite then strike!!!
Best o luck

 

[Slapshot]

Slaps, You're not applying you're principles, 20 point break would have seen the decision to trade off at your entry point. Heat of the battle hey? Also, and you prob don't need me to tell you this, would have been a great entry point on the failure confirmation. The pull back is spot on the 100 EMA, but, it was just like the failed trade, so, had I lost money I would not have made a baskervilles short there as I would have been smarting on the loss. Hey ho, it's all about probabilities, and hopefully more will be coming you're way. It's like fishing, patience patience patience, wait for the bite then strike!!!
Best o luck

Yeah I know mate which is why I'm kicking myself. I still believe the system needs some tweaking for the Dax, maybe the +/20 is too great. Time to take a step back and reassess the situation me thinks

 

[chindl]

Just remember mate - we cannot eliminate losses, we have to live with losses, we just have to make sure that our losses do not take us out of the game and reduce the equity curve over the longer time period. No one system will ever generate 100% profits each time.
Re the 20 points system, the Dax nr as damn it is half the value of the Dow as we sit here today????? Should you play the percentages and drop it to 10. Unfortunately, I do not have access to a streaming Euro indices chart so cannot trade these with you.
Chris

 

[Slapshot]

Re the 20 points system, the Dax nr as damn it is half the value of the Dow as we sit here today????? Should you play the percentages and drop it to 10. Unfortunately, I do not have access to a streaming Euro indices chart so cannot trade these with you.
Chris

Changing the confirmation to +/- 10 is something I've considered but not really had the time to evavluate it. I'm on hols next week so I'll probably take a better look then and not have the interuptions at work to contend with also

 

[Slapshot]

LOL!! Just seems to be one of those days! Glad I didn't go long!

 

[chindl]

The Germans did not appreciate the CPI then??

 

[Slapshot]

Crikey this is almost as volatile as last night.

Standing aside until a clearer direction unfolds. 5295 area is critical. Will be interesting to see if there is now a bounce off 100ema and a move north.

Hold on tight folks I reckon the US session could be bumpy.

 

[Slapshot]

Dax is having a another pop 5295

 

[Slapshot]

Sailed stright through 5295 on the US open, it really makes me smile how the Euro indicies follow the US almost move for move

 

[chindl]

Don't think I'll be going nr the 1st half hr..

 

[chindl]

No 1 - 13 pts on a bit of a scalp.

 

[Slapshot]

No 1 - 13 pts on a bit of a scalp.

Nice one Chris.

There was a clear bounce early doors off the 100ema around 10740-45, that could have been a tasty 40 odd points.

 

[Slapshot]

Hovering around the 100 line again. 10 point dip underneath but support on the RSI and CCI holding firm.

 

[chindl]

some slight divergence on the rsi now??

 

[Slapshot]

There was slightly and the drop soon followed.

Looks to me like an invervse head and shoulders has formed.