Desperately seeking a good DAILY Trading System

[Adamus]

I don't disagree that the Turtle method can produce some large drawdowns, but it's usually a drawdown from a higher point than where you started. What I've found by testing the Turtle rules is that you typically start off losing 10 pct straightaway, whilst fishing for a trend.. ....

I always think as soon as I start to trade any strategy, I'm going to go into a drawdown, just because I optimised the system.

I reckon optimising is pretty much the same process that a fund manager goes through when advertising the return on his fund - he looks for best growth by choosing the starting and ending points carefully - i.e. just after a bad loss and just before a bad loss. My brother does it for a living. From just after the 1987 crash up to 2000, wow, great fund! And that's what my optimisation process is doing to me too. I know there are various ways to be avoid that, but it haven't got around to it yet.

 

[meanreversion]

Can I suggest the following - let's say you start your new system on 1st Jan 2010. On Jan 2nd, you get a buy signal. However, if you had started the system a year earlier, you would already be long. So, ignore this signal and wait for the "older" system to get stopped out, before looking to take a buy signal. In other words, you're waiting to get into the proper rhythm of the system rather than forcing it. I've found this approach backtests quite well. It's a variant on the Turtle rule of rejecting a signal if the previous trade was a winner ... it only really makes sense once you start trading mechanically and you see it in action.

 

[lbranjord]

Can I suggest the following - let's say you start your new system on 1st Jan 2010. On Jan 2nd, you get a buy signal. However, if you had started the system a year earlier, you would already be long. So, ignore this signal and wait for the "older" system to get stopped out, before looking to take a buy signal. In other words, you're waiting to get into the proper rhythm of the system rather than forcing it. I've found this approach backtests quite well. It's a variant on the Turtle rule of rejecting a signal if the previous trade was a winner ... it only really makes sense once you start trading mechanically and you see it in action.

Nice, I did the same thing with my old daily systems. I ignored all trades until my original was closed out. Also I made rules to make sure once the signal that made me enter the trade was gone, the trade was closed out at that time rather than waiting and hoping.

Smart plan, I'm just not able to trade mechanically, I learned this about myself. Profitable systems are all collecting dust. 2000-3000 pips a year mean nothing since I know I cannot follow the rules correctly.

 

[Adamus]

Just discovered an option in NinjaTrader for ensuring that you only enter a trade when starting your system if the system is flat.

 

[meanreversion]

Nice, I did the same thing with my old daily systems. I ignored all trades until my original was closed out. Also I made rules to make sure once the signal that made me enter the trade was gone, the trade was closed out at that time rather than waiting and hoping.

Smart plan, I'm just not able to trade mechanically, I learned this about myself. Profitable systems are all collecting dust. 2000-3000 pips a year mean nothing since I know I cannot follow the rules correctly.

You've hit the nail squarely on the head. The fancy code and optimisation means nothing if you can't follow the system. I rejected a signal back in Feb, has cost me £20k so far, I'm considering it a very expensive lesson..

 

[fayalac]

Come on mate, if markets were as predictable as you say everyone in these forum would be millionare.
I know how to predict patterns, as many of us do, i have studied a lot of technics, and most of the times it happen.
Lets say we find that determined market is oversold, its bear trend is losing momentum, and according to any indicator or oscillator it must go back, and voilá something important happens that makes that bearish trend to regain strength, and lets say you didnt realized, the markets goes back another 250 pips, what would you do?, would you stick to your conclussions?.
if you dont understand first that markets are random and that technical analysis is a complex and probabilistic tool then you are lost, anyway many times you dont have to make complex analysis to realize where the trend will go back and the supports or resistances when it does, but still being random, you may know it.
I dont know about legendary or veteran members but i know most of them think the same way.

If markets behaved in a random and irrational way, then no one would be able to profit from it. I don't think that there is one legendary member of this form that thinks that. Financial markets are all patterned and predictable. Otherwise, there would be no such thing as a trend to follow.

 

[fayalac]

Also mate, you may not agree with me, and its ok, but since markets are primarily equilibrated by price, randomness becomes an important figure in your analysis since you dont know how the rest of investors are thinking. I insist, markets behave random and through technical analysis all we do is to try to anticipate the direction of a trend, so follow the trend.

 

[forexkunta]

Well, it looks like we can agree on one point, "we cannot agree". As I stated earlier, if the markets are random, there can be no such thing as trends to follow. Randomness does not in any way beget structure, as in a trend. Please see post #8. Everyone must make that determination for themselves. I personally, believe that the markets are structured and predictable, hence the formation of trends that play out in 5 wave movements at all degrees of the trend. I have watched time and time again, news coming out to drive the trend in the 5 wave movements to completion. Not rocket science, just being able to count to 5. but again, this is my opinion. I am not interested in getting into an argument over this. The bottom line is that a person is either profitable or not. Elliott Wave theory, The Dow Theory, the Delta Phenomenon, are just a few of the ideas that markets ARE structured and predicable. With EW theory, you can in fact, trade based on wave counts and follow the trends, and actually know when to get out at maximum profit, based on the strength of the wave. I do it every day. It also follows precise mathematics based on the one thing that every trading platform has available in it, Fibonacci. Fibonacci is not provided based on random movements, other wise, there would be more traders talking about Chaos Theory, which is the one thing I have never seen in a forum. Everyone must draw their own conclusions. I just know that since I have gotten on with EW, I have become more profitable. Unfortunately when a newbie posts a thread looking for trading system, most people blast the crap out of him with ideas and opinions that don't really make a lot of sense. At least my offering was in print, and based on ideas that have been used since the 1930's. I only offer it as an option to look at to make a decision for themselves.
Have a good weekend, and good luck with your trading.

Also mate, you may not agree with me, and its ok, but since markets are primarily equilibrated by price, randomness becomes an important figure in your analysis since you dont know how the rest of investors are thinking. I insist, markets behave random and through technical analysis all we do is to try to anticipate the direction of a trend, so follow the trend.

 

[forexkunta]

If you know how to predict patterns, how can you be adamant that the markets are random? I just cannot follow that thought process. I am in no way trying to be combative, I am just trying to understand random patterns???? The is no such thing as patterns in randomness. Please help me understand.

Here is the Webster definition of random - without definite aim, direction, rule, or method

I know how to predict patterns, as many of us do, i have studied a lot of technics, and most of the times it happen.

 

[swissforex]

^ Good advice ^

Go google Nial Fuller's price action articles. There is a lot of good info for how to trade dailys with few or no indicators. Free of course. From there, just vow to yourself that until you are ready, you'll won't try to trade reversals. Always look for stalls in the trend and trade pin bars or inside bars that indicate a continuation.

I would like to trade reversals but it just doesn't make sense with my skill level. It is a goal of mine to be able to do that eventually...but I won't have an account left if I try it now.

There's my 2 pips

thank you mate

interesting comment here

and this thread is growin' up

 

[swissforex]

Learn every thing you can about Elliott Wave analysis. Takes a little time to learn, but is the leading indicator of the financial markets. No black magic, just good analysis. Offers probabilities, and is very accurate. Sign up for all of the free stuff at the website you can. They even have a course that goes deeper into the Forex market, and in my opinion, is the best $79 I have ever spent in the forex world. Everyone is looking for that holy grail and has the attitude that if you don't pay for a system then you don't have anything. After 1 year of trading forex, I have found that the absolute best stuff is more or less free. I bought the Sniper Forex system after being in the forex world for a couple of months, and realized that it is a very good system and goes hand in hand with EW analysis. I still use it, and will continue to use it. I keep a 15M, 1H, 4H and Daily chart up on the pair that I trade at all times with the 2ema's mentioned above, and look at each before I take any trade. In any given week, you really only have about 4 decent trades per pair, sometimes less. Also took me a long time to realize that, and quit over-trading. I always thought that if you didn't have an open trade, then you couldn't make money. That attitude is the quickest way to the poor house.
Good luck with your quest, and I hope I have helped.
Kent

thanx a lot
it could be a good tip

 

[swissforex]

To ForexKunta

could u plase give me an example of a good trade during next week?

assume you are in the daily timeframe,how do u use the lower timeframes triggers?

And do u resize SniperTrend indicators to fit daily period?

thanx

 

[swissforex]

edit myself

Simple approach:

On a weekly chart:

a. Mark where there have been near-term obviouslarge imbalances of supply/demand (fractal swing highs) and demand over supply (fractal swing lows) [shown as the coloured zones on chart shown.]

b. Add fibs of the onvious swings. (fibs of the last 3 most obvious swing hi-lo's circled from the swing hi on the chart shown.)

c. Add any relevant trend lines.

Then,

e. When price enters any point of confluence of those 3 x potential support/resistance factors drop down to your daily t/f as your trigger and assess whether you see any good rejection/reversal candle/set-up forrms and trade accordingly with stop outside of the potentialo supp/res zone.

Remember confluence is king. (gbpusd weekly shown as an example....)

hi bbmac

sorry for my last reply

your system is not difficult

maybe I was scared by too many lines on your weekly chart,but what u say is absolutely RIGHT and KISS all the way

 

[Sang Froid]

A nice simple daily system that I used when I first started was:

at the close of every daily candle place a buy stop at +5 pips the high and a sell stop -5 pips the low. Place S/L at 20 pips and T/P at 25 pips for both.

You're not trying to predict whether the trend is up or down, in fact you couldn't care less if it's a bull or a bear or any other creature for that matter just whether you're gonna get a big movement the next day. My broker uses 00.00gmt for a daily candle and I used to capture 25 pips quite often at around 04.00gmt and one pair, more pairs the better.

Like I say, look for volatility, which pair do you think will move the most the next day. I never placed a trade after a Doji, maybe this was superstition but just seemed the next day was a bit choppy.

Like I say it's quite simple and easy to set up, I should start doing this again.... can't remember why I fell out of love with it now

 

[leovirgo]

I will share a simple daily system on USD pairs.

1. Make note of US economic data release dates in advance. Here is the link http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/news_release_sort_national.htm

2. 3 days/ or a week before the announcement

3. Buy at 1/2 daily range above last close or sell 1/2 daily range below last close, reverse position if stopped out

4. Close the trade on the day prior to announcement.

5. Do it at your own risk and discretion. Back test this method and modify it to fine tune to suit your style and flavor. Study which pairs work.

 

[swissforex]

A nice simple daily system that I used when I first started was:

at the close of every daily candle place a buy stop at +5 pips the high and a sell stop -5 pips the low. Place S/L at 20 pips and T/P at 25 pips for both.

You're not trying to predict whether the trend is up or down, in fact you couldn't care less if it's a bull or a bear or any other creature for that matter just whether you're gonna get a big movement the next day. My broker uses 00.00gmt for a daily candle and I used to capture 25 pips quite often at around 04.00gmt and one pair, more pairs the better.

Like I say, look for volatility, which pair do you think will move the most the next day. I never placed a trade after a Doji, maybe this was superstition but just seemed the next day was a bit choppy.

Like I say it's quite simple and easy to set up, I should start doing this again.... can't remember why I fell out of love with it now

thanx mate

it could be good for all of us if u draw down some statistics from your past experience with that system

 

[Sang Froid]

Well here are the results for the last week on a demo account. I know one week of results tells you nothing, I'll try and look back to when I used this on my live account, but looking back to over 3 years worth of results is no easy task.

Anyways, just give it a go on a demo, see what you think and let me know, I'm going back to a live account with this next week.

 

[Sang Froid]

I also forgot to mention, once an order has been filled, say short, you then cancel the opposite long. Only have one order open per pair. The trick is to anticipate which pair will move the quickest the next day in one direction, if say for instance the GBP/USD has closed at nearly it's higest and you have a buy stop at +5 pips the high will the next day candle move with so much volatility that it takes out your 25 pip T/P?

I use a chaikin volatility indicator as a rough estimate for how volatile a pair is but tend to rely on knowledge of various pairs gained through years of watching how the market moves (guess work )

 

[Adamus]

A nice simple daily system that I used when I first started was:

at the close of every daily candle place a buy stop at +5 pips the high and a sell stop -5 pips the low. Place S/L at 20 pips and T/P at 25 pips for both.

You probably stopped when it started whipsawing you, taking out your buy and your sell.

I like the simplicity of it though. All you need is a decent whipsawiness filter.

 

[Sang Froid]

You probably stopped when it started whipsawing you, taking out your buy and your sell.

I like the simplicity of it though. All you need is a decent whipsawiness filter.

Never got whipsawed, to get whipsawed out on a daily TF is some serious whipsaw action going on considering that when one order is triggered the other get cancelled. I think the reason I stopped was because at the time I was very new to trading and it didn't offer me the chance to trade every 10 minutes and blow my account quicker