Delta

Jul 16, 2005
58
1
16
Hong Kong
#2
You mean Welles Wilder's "The Delta Phenomenon"? I read it a few months ago. Frankly speaking, maybe because I am a novice, I don't know how to apply it to trading. Perhaps someone will enlighten me in this aspect.
 

Bigbusiness

Well-known member
Dec 12, 2001
1,408
23
48
#3
I found it easy to see the turning points on old charts but hard to spot them in real time. I have also seen several solutions for the short term delta on the Dow/S&P. This made me wonder about the inversion points. Having spent a few months trying to ge my head around it, I gave up. At least it convinced me that I am better off following a trend rather than trying to guess when the markets are going to turn.
 
Mar 22, 2005
20
0
11
Edinburgh
#4
Bigbusiness said:
I found it easy to see the turning points on old charts but hard to spot them in real time. I have also seen several solutions for the short term delta on the Dow/S&P. This made me wonder about the inversion points. Having spent a few months trying to ge my head around it, I gave up. At least it convinced me that I am better off following a trend rather than trying to guess when the markets are going to turn.
so it's looking like no one actually trade using this!
 

Peter

Active member
Sep 16, 2003
153
0
26
47
Lancs
#7
Delta for the Dow / SPX Intermediate and medium timeframe .


Hi

Its a coincidence this thread just started today as I was going to create a new thread to ask some questions...

I have read some of the replies and so far it may be no one can really answer my problem..


I wonder if any delta traders would be good enough to advise me or help me solve my problem..

Thks heres my querie below ..


I am new to delta and was trying to see if i could use it on the Intermediate and medium time frames for the DOW JONES IND ..and maybe the SPX

Ive attemted to see if I could come up with a solution for where to place the 4 coloured lines and where should the number 1 point come for the intermediate ( 4 lunar ) and medium ( 12 lunar ) time frames,, and WOULD ONE EXPECT the Number 1 to be a LOW or a TOP in general.....


I Know the following may be also on another time frame However I Note If I go back over a 5 year time frame that Months January, February and March have had some good Highs or Lows come in.

Also the Low of October 2002 I thought may have been a possible vital date that May offer guidence if Jan to March isnt where to expect a number 1..

In the Delta Phenominon book there is two examples of the dow for the longer time frames.. This shows egs of where number 1s come in as well as how many points..


I wondered How many points that there should be for the other time frames, ie the Intermediate, and Medium term delta time frames and if possible the 4 day one. ALSO where the number 1 point comes in and between what colours and if a high or low IF NOT inversed as I read that the dow hasnt inversed for many years..

I would be most grateful if anyone Can anyone help me with it..

My email address is

dowsp@yahoo.com

if its easier to reply..

Many thanks

Pete
 
Jul 27, 2005
12
0
11
Harpenden
#8
Peter said:
Delta for the Dow / SPX Intermediate and medium timeframe .


Hi

Its a coincidence this thread just started today as I was going to create a new thread to ask some questions...

I have read some of the replies and so far it may be no one can really answer my problem..


I wonder if any delta traders would be good enough to advise me or help me solve my problem..

Thks heres my querie below ..


I am new to delta and was trying to see if i could use it on the Intermediate and medium time frames for the DOW JONES IND ..and maybe the SPX

Ive attemted to see if I could come up with a solution for where to place the 4 coloured lines and where should the number 1 point come for the intermediate ( 4 lunar ) and medium ( 12 lunar ) time frames,, and WOULD ONE EXPECT the Number 1 to be a LOW or a TOP in general.....


I Know the following may be also on another time frame However I Note If I go back over a 5 year time frame that Months January, February and March have had some good Highs or Lows come in.

Also the Low of October 2002 I thought may have been a possible vital date that May offer guidence if Jan to March isnt where to expect a number 1..

In the Delta Phenominon book there is two examples of the dow for the longer time frames.. This shows egs of where number 1s come in as well as how many points..


I wondered How many points that there should be for the other time frames, ie the Intermediate, and Medium term delta time frames and if possible the 4 day one. ALSO where the number 1 point comes in and between what colours and if a high or low IF NOT inversed as I read that the dow hasnt inversed for many years..

I would be most grateful if anyone Can anyone help me with it..

My email address is

dowsp@yahoo.com

if its easier to reply..

Many thanks

Pete
Peter,
Though I have not traded it, I have spent some time trying to produce a solution for the Long and Intermediate and Medium Deltas for the Dow .
Firstly, at the back of the small booklet (The Delta Phenomenon Study Guide) which you should have got (along with the book and the video. There is an appendix entitled Delta Colors - this gives the colours and dates for the Long,Intermediate and Medium term deltas up to 25 Dec 2015 (which is Blue on the medium term Delta).

Secondly , so far as I can see Point 1 for the Long and for the Intermediate term Deltas comes around the Orange line. Long term has 6 points, Intermediate (if I have 'solved ' it correctly ) has 7 points. Both appear to have had inversions recently (i.e last few cycles).

I you go to the internet address http://www.deltasociety.com/turningpoints/ You can see that the Long Term Delta inverted in 1999 and 2002 and also see approximately where the points should have been and where they actually were from 6/30/1998 to 21/31/2002.

Quite a few of the points seem to have been rather far from their predicted time. I have not so far had sufficient data, time, patience,optimism to try to solve the Medium term Delta.
To solve the Short term Delta requires intraday data - which I neither have nor want since I have a full time job.

Cheers,
Ian
 
Jul 27, 2005
12
0
11
Harpenden
#9
theknifemac said:
And some are using the Market Matrix / Nexus approach over on TT, tho it has gone a bit quiet on that front recently.
Hi,
Please excuse my ignorance, but where is TT?
I got interested in Market Matrix (Steve Copan's 'improvement' on the Delta) before I had even
heard of Welles Wilder and the Delta Phenomenon.

The problem is that Market Matrix is 20 times as expensive as The Delta Phenomenon - and at the time that I made enquiries the was no money back guarantee ( though I believe that there is somthing now).
So I was advised ( by Tom Hougaard) to look at the Delta Phenomenon first.

Like many others, I work full time and would love to give it up. The problem is in finding another income - trading would be good if only I could make money with some reasonable expectation of continuing to do so. The promo to the Market Matrix made it sould like one could hardly fail since it is said to enable one to pick not only turning points, but also the prices.

The only other product I have heard of which come close it MTPredictor - has anyone had experienc using that for UK shares on an EOD basis?

Thanks,
Ian
 

Peter

Active member
Sep 16, 2003
153
0
26
47
Lancs
#10
Hi Ian, ( Crud Cutter )

Thanks for your reply and feedback on your experience with Delta.

I did see that there was examples and information about the longer term time frames for the Dow.
In the book there are chart examples of the long term ( 4 yr cycle ) and super long term ( 19 yr cycle ).
It shows 6 points with another eg for 18 points that was later found useful..



It didnt show intermediate or medium examples and Ill have to recheck the small booklet which presently I dont have just at the moment..

I agree it seems hard to define deltas long term time frame accuracy and it does seem quite hard to work out the other time frames and say if they are accurate.

It has been quiet recently about Market matrix, but I do suspect that it is a better overall system.. No doubt its many times more expensive.

TT by the way is for tactical trader..

http://www.tacticaltrader.com

Thanks again for you reply.

Pete