Debate on Astrology (AN v HWS)

[arabianights]

Ok, my main contention is there is neither a plausible way that the movements of the planets can have an effect upon the markets, nor (more importantly) is there any evidence that they do so.

Anyway, back in other sides' corner

 

[hwsteele]

Ok, my main contention is there is neither a plausible way that the movements of the planets can have an effect upon the markets, nor (more importantly) is there any evidence that they do so.

Anyway, back in other sides' corner

Sweet our very own debate thread!

OK, let me ask you a question...

What would YOU consider evidence that the planets have an effect on the markets?
I mean what would have to be shown for you to think that it may be possible?

 

[arabianights]

At the very minimum, statistically significan correlation between market prices (in some sense, not necessarily naked prices) and between the alignment of the heavens.

Then, once that was discovered I would want some statistically significant predicitions made based upon that. And I would like to see said predicitions fulfilled.

 

[arabianights]

Basically if it requires interpretation from yourself, then it's actually you making the market calls. Which you should be proud of, not giving the credit to travellers in the sky

 

[donaldduke]

On June 13, 2010, Uranus, Jupiter, and Mercury will be lined up on one side of the Sun while Venus, Mars, and Saturn will be lined up on the other side.

I can therefore predict a market crash happening around this time.

 

[hwsteele]

At the very minimum, statistically significan correlation between market prices (in some sense, not necessarily naked prices) and between the alignment of the heavens.

Not to sound thinker than I already do but what would you consider a statistically significant correlation?
Like every time this planet is here or there the market reacts?
Or are you looking for more?

Then, once that was discovered I would want some statistically significant predicitions made based upon that. And I would like to see said predicitions fulfilled.

Then I guess the same question about the predictions?

Dull so far I know

 

[MrGecko]

FYI

Sunspots

 

[hwsteele]

OK, what would you say to an event in the heavens that when it happens times the follow:
The day the event happens is the last day of a market move up or down. Sometimes sideways but mostly up and down.
That means the day after it happens the market changes direction for between 1 and 3 days (once in a while more than 3 days).
Some times the day of the event is the only day that is counter trend.

One might build the following system around it:
Right before closing the day of the event the person would enter the market in the direction that is counter the current trend. The day of the astro event would be what constitutes the current trend. The person would then exit the trade at the end of the day after the astro event if they were in profit.
If they were not in profit they would stay in the trade for up to four trading days.
The four trading day rule would take care of most sideways markets I would think.
Now if you wanted to include other things like reading price after you are in the trade you could but then the system would not be 100% mechanical.
Doing so could increase the winning but then again it would not be 100% mechanical.

I would use the S&P500 cash index as the market of choice and trade the cash index options.
Trading the cash options in stead of the futures for the S&P500 would protect you during the four days if the market just went 100% against you.
That way you could stay in for the full four days and not have a stop loss to deal with as the options expiring worthless would be your stop loss.
The most money you would loose would be what you paid for the options.

Being that you would only be in the trade for no longer than a week you could simply set the rules to be that you buy options that are at the money between 30 and 60 days to expiration. Then time value would be of little effect on you.
And spending only 2,3, or 5% of your account balance on each trade would dictate how much you buy.

 

[Dmond]

Ok, my main contention is there is neither a plausible way that the movements of the planets can have an effect upon the markets, nor (more importantly) is there any evidence that they do so.

Anyway, back in other sides' corner

There are only a handful of real Astrologers in the world. For example Russell Grant isn’t a real Astrologer. A real Astrologer is someone who can predict with close to 100% accuracy the outcome of practically any question about the future in any field of life. I.e. what will I die from? What will my career be in? How many children will I have? Will the invasion of Iran happen, if so when?

The evidence is plainly visible to an experienced Astrologer, and that is how they make money from it. Getting them to tell you how to do it is another thing. Why would they bother spreading the knowledge when they can keep it for themselves and benefit exclusively from it?

 

[Shakone]

A handful? I've never heard of anyone who has demonstrated what you described.

Why would they bother spreading the knowledge when they can keep it for themselves and benefit exclusively from it?

If this knowledge ever existed, then presumably for someone to learn it, they must have read/studied it somewhere. So one of these original astrologers must have taught it. Right?

And how do you know Russell Grant isn't actually a 'real' astrologer? Maybe he just pretends to be crap so that he can keep the secret knowledge for himself

 

[kimo'sabby]

Ok, my main contention is there is neither a plausible way that the movements of the planets can have an effect upon the markets, nor (more importantly) is there any evidence that they do so.

Anyway, back in other sides' corner

I use astrology in my trading. I can't give you anything specific in terms of planetary alignment, let's just say that they give me a better guage on volatility, like a moving average or something.

 

[jm99]

i know a lot of traders use astro dates and im sure they have a self - fulfilling aspect like all ta, but the majority of people who follow and genuinely believe imo are borderline delusional. forer effect, cognitive biases etc

 

[jm99]

http://www.skepdic.com/astrolgy.html

 

[MrGecko]

I taught Russell Grant everything he knows.

 

[robster970]

You know that thing about predominance of traders being INTJ's? I wonder if most traders are Gemini's or something like that? Sounds like a poll to me, and one I'll vote for as best poll/thread come the end of year awards.

 

[kimo'sabby]

You know that thing about predominance of traders being INTJ's? I wonder if most traders are Gemini's or something like that? Sounds like a poll to me, and one I'll vote for as best poll/thread come the end of year awards.

I'm capricorn. Acting the goat. Seriously i am capricorn.

 

[arabianights]

I'm too lazy to debate when I'm not drunk, sorry.

 

[hwsteele]

You know that thing about predominance of traders being INTJ's? I wonder if most traders are Gemini's or something like that? Sounds like a poll to me, and one I'll vote for as best poll/thread come the end of year awards.

Well I am a Leo (should come as no surprise).
I think this poll has been done before last year or so. You may want to do a search for It.

 

[hwsteele]

I'm too lazy to debate when I'm not drunk, sorry.

I always thought drinking too much made me lazy. I guess we just don't see eye to eye on anything!

 

[4xpipcounter]

That blows this whole debate. June 13 was a Sunday. Just for good measure, the market had a 298-point range for that week on a bull candle.

On June 13, 2010, Uranus, Jupiter, and Mercury will be lined up on one side of the Sun while Venus, Mars, and Saturn will be lined up on the other side.

I can therefore predict a market crash happening around this time.