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[HOWTOINVEST] Investing Darwins: pitfalls, guidelines and expectations

It is time to draw conclusions and give recommendations after all material provided up to now ( I didn't report all problematic stuff I prepared,I hope what was posted is enough).

For traders: you have to forget about Darwinia and concentrate on building the best possible track-record for serious investors.Darwinia pushes,as monthly contest,traders into taking too much risk and trading too often(Regularity criteria) and is heavily dependent on D-score which proved to be nonsense so far and bad influence on traders.
If you want to attract and retain serious investors(retail and maybe later also institutionals,if Darwinex brings them in) you must concentrate on your Risk and DD,not on max. Return.
Even if you attract dumb money with high Return,they will enter on highs and abandon your darwin during first normal DD and realise losses.In that scenario you earn no fees.Such investors are useless.
If you go the conservative route,you will get nothing for years(2-3 first years),but you will build strong foundations and you will last.
If you chase max.Return and compete with others you will most probably burn out or you will have unstable investor base,which will drive you crazy and add pressure on you during each DD.

For investors:Firstly,ignore all Darwinex suggestions ,D-score,interviews,Migrated track-records...
Get the grip on reality of this new asset class-darwins.At present Risk Manager conditions,reality is if you can find darwins that produce 10% annualized with around 5-12%DD you have found very good stuff.Those producing 15% annualized are rare,very rare.
10% annualized profit can look like:1.year 15%,2. year 5%,third year 10% or 1.year 5%,2.year20% and third year 5%...Darwins are not bank deposits.The good ones are rising on yearly basis but there are DDs in between.
Be patient and enter your chosen darwins only during their occasional DDs.You will minimise possible loss if darwin goes off the rails for whatever reason(going into 15-20%DD from high).You will be relatively quickly in the money when your darwin starts rising from DD and after a while you will be able to move your initial Stop-loss order to break-even and enjoy the ride for years.Even if good darwin later goes into unacceptable DD,you will by then rise your SL so high that you will get out with profit.
Initial SL can be additional 10%DD(remember you are already entering during DD) and if you divide your portfolio into five good darwins equally weighted,your initial monetary risk for such individual entry is only 2% of your capital.
When you enter during DD,you are psychologically ready for loss and that loss is limited and only half of what you would risk if entered on highs.People entering on highs are going in optimistic and break-down psychologically when suddenly there is deep or protracted DD.They exit when smart money is getting ready to go in.It is also support for trader if he see money coming in during DD and not a stampede out.In Hedge-funds investors are locked in for certain periods,but darwins are liquid (investors can exit whenever they wish) and temptation to exit during normal DD is too big for normal people, when they are already in 5-10% loss because of entering on highs and they are staring into another 10% additional loss.Some people in such situations completely freeze and endure complete break-down(30% loss or more) because they get surprised by DD and losses.

Pay attention to Divergence.It can eat the same amount of profits as fees in some darwins,so you end up with only half of yearly nominal profits.

Needless to say,you cannot invest in darwins with less then 2-3 years of actual trading on Darwinex platform.That much time is needed to establish roughly annualized Return and to see how trader behaves during DD and how his normal DDs look like.Also you avoid potentially doctored or track-record farming Migrated accounts in the same way.

Don't worry about missing profits by waiting on DD,every darwin enters DD eventually.Use Pending Buy orders for your entry if you are afraid you will miss it.Also don't worry about missing some nice darwin,new darwins are rising every year and more and more of them mature when they cross 3 year line.This is still very young investment platform.
 
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As a side note,I hope my previous post will encourage some people to ditch Google search engine (I use DuckDuckGo) and Youtube(owned by Google),because Google is corrupt company.

I am glad that I noticed how Darwinex is pushing Darwinia contest for their demo money onto unsuspecting public.It is time to draw conclusions and give recommendations after all material provided up to now( I didn't report all problematic stuff I prepared,I hope what was posted is enough ).

For traders: you have to forget about Darwinia and concentrate on building the best possible track-record for serious investors.Darwinia pushes,as monthly contest,traders into taking too much risk and trading too often(Regularity criteria) and is heavily dependent on D-score which proved to be nonsense so far and bad influence on traders.
If you want to attract and retain serious investors(retail and maybe later also institutionals,if Darwinex brings them on) you must concentrate on your Risk and DD,not on max. Return.
Even if you attract dumb money with high Return,they will enter on highs and abandon your darwin during first normal DD and realise losses.In that scenario you earn no fees.Such investors are useless.
If you go the conservative route,you will get nothing for years(2-3 first years),but you will build strong foundations and you will last, and provide valuable service to investors.
If you chase max.Return and compete with others you will most probably burn out or you will have unstable investors base,which will drive you crazy and add additional pressure on you during each DD.

For investors:Firstly,ignore all Darwinex suggestions ,D-score,interviews,Migrated track-records...
Get the grip on reality of this new asset class-darwins.At present Risk Manager conditions,reality is if you can find darwins that produce 10% annualized with around 5-12%DD you have found very good stuff.Those producing 15% annualized are rare,very rare.
10% annualized profit can look like:1.year 15%,2. year 5%,third year 10% or 1.year 5%,2.year20% and third year 5%...Darwins are not bank deposits.The good ones are rising on yearly basis but there are DDs in between.
Be patient and enter your chosen darwins only during their occasional DDs.You will minimise possible loss if darwin goes of the rails for whatever reason(going into 15-20%DD from high).You will be relatively quickly in the money when your darwin starts rising from DD and after a while you will be able to move your initial Stop-loss order to break-even and enjoy the ride for years.Even if good darwin later goes into unacceptable DD,you will by then rise your SL so high that you will get out with profit.
Initial SL can be 10%(remember you are already entering during DD) and if you divide your portfolio into five good darwins equally weighted,your initial monetary risk for such individual entry is only 2% of your capital.
When you enter during DD,you are psychologically ready for loss and that loss is limited and only half of what you would risk if entered on highs.People entering on highs are going in optimistic and break-down psychologically when suddenly there is deep or protracted DD.They exit when smart money is getting ready to go in.It is also support for trader if he see money coming in during DD and not an stampede out.In Hedge-funds people are locked in for certain periods,but darwins are liquid (investors can exit whenever they wish) and temptation to exit during normal DD is too big for normal people, when they are already in 5-10% loss because of entering on highs and they are staring into another 10% additional loss.Some people in such situations completely freeze and endure complete break-down(30% loss or more) because they get surprised by DD and losses.

Pay attention to Divergence.It can eat the same amount of profits as fees in some darwins,so you end up with only half of yearly nominal profits.

Needless to say,you cannot invest in darwins with less then 2-3 years of actual trading on Darwinex platform.That much time is needed to establish roughly annualized Return and to see how trader behaves during DD and how his normal DDs look like.Also you avoid potentially doctored or track-record farming Migrated accounts in the same way.

Don't worry about missing profits by waiting on DD,every darwin enters DD eventually.Use Pending Buy orders for your entry if you are afraid you will miss it.Also don't worry about missing some nice darwin,new darwins are rising every year and more and more of them mature when they cross 3 year line.This is still very young investment platform.
Thanks very much for your time and effort!!!
 
When I was writing that long post,I thought about writing a disclaimer:don't take it as an investment advice,consult professional ,blah,blah,blah...Who you gonna consult?Darwinex has asset management license but don't seek advice from them,they have bad track-record ;).They had payable service teaching investors how to make money with darwins,but that was quietly withdrawn,if I am not mistaken.It is a new asset class and accredited asset managers don't know anything about it and can help you with Risk management but not with picking good darwins.
Ideally this asset class is best for active traders or retired traders,who want to put some of their excess cash out of bank into hands of somebody who will give them more%.
For others who don't have experience they can try to follow more experienced investors in picking darwins,but you have to employ tactics I described ,to minimize stupid behaviour and unnecessary losses.
There are around 3000 active darwins now.Use this simple and modest filter to narrow down greatly list of candidates for your portfolio.Filter incorporates most important points from this and previous post.You can later search more info from traders selected and other investors in this and old official forum.
1)Return last two years: 5-max.
2)Drawdown(DD) last two years: -20-max.
3)Days in Darwinex current: 730-max.
4)Investors currently: 5-max.

It will narrow the list from almost 3000 to 52 at the moment.More than enough for your Portfolio of 5 or 10.Not all are pure gold .Not all of these traders are conservative! This filter is absolute minimum.Experienced traders of course don't need 4).

By the way,without 4) there are only 200 darwins making 5% or more during last 24 months of trading.It is not very difficult to make 5%,but it is difficult to survive all market phases during 24 months and keep at least 5% profits.That is important for investors:traders who have staying power or resilience while trading in public and handling investors money.
 
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I think he wouldn't want an interview now. That would be typical for lucky traders, but his success was much longer.
1613575232982.png

Edit:
Chart shows his period of silence.
 
darwin AXF,
Bumped into AXF today .
Really impressive how a long trackrecord with a robust system can turn into a doomed loser.
3 years of gains, 3 years of losses, almost perfect vertical symmetry.
Perfectly represent my definition of "winner to loser".
These are the true problem for expert investors while gamblers are easy to spot for a trained eye.
 
Bumped into AXF today .
Really impressive how a long trackrecord with a robust system can turn into a doomed loser.
3 years of gains, 3 years of losses, almost perfect vertical symmetry.
Perfectly represent my definition of "winner to loser".
These are the true problem for expert investors while gamblers are easy to spot for a trained eye.
He made some money from investors or DarwinIA in 2017/1018.
That's a typical EA system when the EAs can't work anymore and I wonder why the provider does not change them.
There are lots of EAs which are not profitable since 2017 as market behaviour changed to a certain kind of unpredictability for the logic of most EAs working with indicators.
 
Here the point of view is for investors.
BTW every time you change after a loss you are "selling low"
Change EA/rules/darwins/stocks every month and instead of a "mountain" shape you will acheive a straight descending line.
 
AXF didn't even make money with his Darwin since migration:
1618924880909.png

If there was no money withdrawn, he even lost (a little) more on his trading account until now than he ever received via Darwinex.

Rule for investors:
Buy only Darwins where the trader is invested.
Unfortunately that's not shown at Darwinex - another lack on the Darwin's presentation.
 
Buy only Darwins where the trader is invested.
I agree , btw we have only 750 darwins with an equity higher than 3000.
The fact that he is still committing 3k with no investors and a DScore of 21 means he is still tryng something trusted.
Considering the whole ecosystem AXF is above average about skin in the game.
 
darwins PUZ,PUL,PUD
Just to be fair on PUL, one year later, it has pulled out a good performance.
1633254640684.png

Unfortunately, like most of the best perfoming Darwins, it has almost no capacity left.

Copy-trading is inherently a self-limiting model. The better the performance of a trading strategy, the more copy-trading it attracts. As the size of such copy-trading grows larger, the performance deteriorates due to slippage and other factors.

No matter how much Darwinex may grow its customer base, the copytrading side ("Investor") will remain as little more than marketing bait to attract customers. I'm therefore not surprised Darwinex have been focused on improving other parts of their business than the copy-trading side.
 
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