Ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report, global stock markets are facing a “final exam” for tech stocks
On November 19, 2025, global stock markets continued their correction. The three major US stock indices, the European STOXX 600, the German DAX, the UK FTSE 100, and major Asian markets all closed lower, with technology stocks being the most significant drag on this correction. Market sentiment was highly tense, solely due to the upcoming release of NVIDIA’s Q3 2025 fiscal year earnings report after the US market closes tonight, which was seen as a crucial “final exam” determining the fate of the AI bull market.
Why have tech stocks suddenly become the target of public criticism?
Over the past year, the tech frenzy driven by generative AI has been almost entirely fueled by Nvidia’s outstanding performance. From the explosive popularity of ChatGPT to the advent of the Blackwell architecture, the market has given Nvidia a valuation premium far exceeding that of traditional tech companies. However, as the index repeatedly hits new highs, investors are beginning to worry: is this surge supported by fundamentals, or is it purely speculative hype?
The Nasdaq 100 index has plunged nearly 8% in the past two weeks, breaking below the 25,000-point mark, the 50-day moving average, and the long-term upward channel, showing clear signs of technical weakness. This correction reflects not only profit-taking but also a deep-seated doubt in the market about whether high valuations can continue to be realized.
The answer lies in tonight’s earnings report and forward guidance.
Three key points to watch in Nvidia’s financial report
- revenue and profit
are approximately $54.9 billion, with data center revenue exceeding $48 billion, primarily driven by the ramp-up of Blackwell chips.
- the gross profit margin
can maintain an exceptionally high level of over 75% will directly affect market confidence in pricing power.
- The most crucial forward guidance,
covering Q4 of fiscal year 2025 and the full year of 2026, is the real answer to whether the stock price will hit its ceiling or bottom.
- If guidance is significantly raised → high valuations will be backed by fundamentals, and tech stocks are expected to rebound strongly.
- If only the criteria are met or slightly revised upwards → high-level fluctuations, valuation pressure continues to intensify.
- If the forecast is lowered or conservatively adjusted, concerns about a bubble burst will be confirmed, and the Nasdaq may face a mid-term correction.
Understanding the Technical Levels of the Two Major US Stock Indices
Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): The most vulnerable leading indicator
- It has fallen below 25,000 points, the 50-day moving average, and the lower edge of the upward channel.
- Currently in a technical downtrend dominated by bears.
- The next key support level is 24,000 points (corresponding to the 100-day moving average and the previous high area).
If this level is breached, it will confirm a broader structural pullback, with the decline potentially extending to 15%-20%.
NAS100, Daily Chart | Ultima Market MT5
S&P 500 (SP500): Relatively resilient, but the outlook is not optimistic.
- Short-term key support: around 6,500 points
- Currently, the market is consolidating below the previous high resistance zone.
As long as the 6,500-point level is held, the bullish structure remains intact. However, if Nvidia’s earnings report is disappointing or subsequent data is overheated, causing a drop below the 6,500-point level, it indicates that the correction has spread from technology stocks to the overall market, and the magnitude and duration of the adjustment will be significantly prolonged.
S&P 500, Daily Chart | Ultima Market MT5
US economic data releases resume; September non-farm payroll report to be released this Thursday
Economic data that had been piling up during the US government shutdown will be released starting this week, with the most anticipated September non-farm payroll report (originally scheduled for October 3) now confirmed for release on November 20 (Thursday). This data will be the first report to fully reflect the true state of the US economy since the shutdown, and will directly test the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish stance of “pausing interest rate cuts.”
If employment and wage data are overheated, the probability of an interest rate cut in December will be further reduced, which would be a double blow to the already fragile stock market.
Gold prices remain stable above the $4,000 mark as safe-haven demand counters the strength of the US dollar
Despite the turmoil in the stock market and the strengthening of the US dollar, gold (XAU/USD) has shown remarkable resilience, continuing to hold firmly above the psychological level of $4,000. Technically, it exhibits a wide range of fluctuations at high levels, with strong short-term support and upward pressure from rising US Treasury yields.
For gold bulls, the real catalyst for a breakout may be a sell-off in risk assets triggered by Nvidia’s earnings report tonight.
XAU/USD, H2 Chart | Ultima Market MT5
Conclusion: The real battle will begin in the latter half of this week.
The market movement on November 19th was merely the calm before the storm. The true direction will be revealed after the dust settles on the following two major events:
- Nvidia’s earnings report tonight → Will determine the valuation ceiling for tech stocks
- Non-farm payroll data to be released on Thursday → Will determine the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December.
Until the outcome becomes clear, risk appetite will remain low, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines or maintain a light position in high-volatility assets. Once the direction becomes clear, regardless of whether the market is bullish or bearish, rare trend-driven opportunities will emerge.
Risk Warning : Trading leveraged derivatives involves high risk and may result in capital loss.
Disclaimer : The comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
