Daily News Analysis By Ultima Markets

[Ultima markets]

Middle East Conflict Intensifies: Israel and Iran Exchange Blows, Global Equities Cautiously Higher, Oil Surges – What's Next?​

Global equities opened broadly higher on Monday , despite rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East where tensions between Israel and Iran escalated further over the weekend. The situation worsened on Sunday, with both sides engaging in retaliatory attacks.

Market Overview: Middle East Tensions and Market Reaction​

On Friday, global equity markets slipped while oil prices surged sharply, following Israel’s large-scale strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. These latest exchanges reportedly resulted in civilian casualties and heightened fears of a wider regional conflict, as both militaries issued warnings to civilians on the opposing side to take safety precautions.

Investors are increasingly concerned about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic shipping route that handles roughly 20% of the world’s total oil consumption. Any extended military confrontation in the region could significantly disrupt oil flows and further elevate energy prices.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Remains High​

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he hoped Israel and Iran could reach a ceasefire, but added that “sometimes countries have to fight it out first.” He reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel but declined to comment on whether he had urged Israel to halt its strikes. The Middle East conflict is expected to be a key topic at this week’s Group of Seven (G7) summit in Canada. German Chancellor Merz expressed hope that G7 leaders could reach a consensus on how to help de-escalate the situation. However, Iran has firmly stated that it will not engage in ceasefire negotiations while under active attack by Israel—adding further uncertainty to the geopolitical outlook.

Oil prices rallied sharply on Friday, with Brent crude settling at $74.80 per barrel and WTI closing at $73.20. In intraday trading, WTI crude spiked over 14%, hitting its highest level since January, while Brent rose nearly 12% for the week.

Global Equities: Cautious Optimism Amid Rising Risks​

Global equity markets faced broad selling pressure last Friday, leading to declines across major indices. However, despite escalating geopolitical tensions over the weekend, Asian markets opened higher on Monday, and futures in Europe and the U.S. also edged up. Still, investor sentiment remains fragile. With several key central bank decisions on the horizon and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, market nerves could resurface quickly. Any sudden shift in risk appetite or policy tone may trigger renewed volatility across global markets.

• Technical Outlook: S&P 500 As highlighted earlier, the S&P 500’s bullish momentum has started to wane. A rising wedge pattern had formed near the critical 6000 level—often a bearish reversal signal.
  
  
  
  Image Source: SP500, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Last week, the index broke below this pattern. And although Monday’s open saw a brief rebound, failure to reclaim the 6000 level could open the door to further downside, especially if global sentiment deteriorates further.

• Technical Outlook: EuroStoxx50
  
  
  
  Image Source: EU50, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

The EU50 index has broken below a key ascending wedge structure, signaling a potential bearish reversal. The breakdown comes after multiple failed attempts to breach the upper resistance zone near 5430–5450, which aligns with the upper bound of the multi-month consolidation range.

Summary​

While escalating Middle East tensions may not be the primary drag on equities, broader market caution persists due to upcoming central bank decisions and ongoing uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade and fiscal policies. For now, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines, with risk appetite fragile. Any negative developments—geopolitical or macroeconomic—could quickly sour sentiment and trigger renewed volatility.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Geopolitical Risks & Central Bank Decisions Ahead: Global Markets Open Cautiously, USDJPY in Focus​

Global financial markets started the week on a cautious note, as investors weighed rising geopolitical tensions against a backdrop of major central bank decisions. Monday’s muted open reflects a fragile balance between risk appetite and defensive positioning.

Market Overview​

Wall Street futures dipped slightly in early trading, while European benchmarks remained broadly flat. In Asia, equities opened higher but struggled to sustain gains as market participants shifted focus to geopolitical headlines and upcoming policy signals. In the currency market, the U.S. dollar edged higher against major peers, supported by safe-haven flows amid intensifying Middle East tensions and anticipation of key policy updates from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. The Japanese yen held steady around the 145 level versus the U.S. dollar, showing resilience as speculation mounts over the BOJ’s policy path. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened, reflecting broader cautious sentiment.

Central Bank Watch: BOJ and Fed in Focus​

This week’s monetary policy calendar is headlined by the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve—both of which could shape market direction through summer.

• BOJ Outlook: The BOJ is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but investors will be watching for any shift in tone, particularly regarding its bond-buying program and inflation outlook. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments will be scrutinized for clues about whether the central bank is preparing to tighten policy more clearly, especially as trade tensions begin to ease.
• Fed Policy: The Fed convenes midweek with its rate decision due Wednesday. Softer May CPI and cooling labor market data have reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep rates on hold. However, markets are keen to hear Chair Powell’s guidance on future cuts—potentially as early as September. Any surprise hawkish tone could challenge the recent weakening trend in the U.S. dollar and reprice rate expectations.

Geopolitical Risk: Middle East Escalation Raises Caution​

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensified over the weekend following Israel’s strikes on Iranian infrastructure. In response, President Trump ordered partial evacuations of U.S. personnel in Tehran and cut short his participation in the G7 summit in Canada—highlighting the severity of the situation. China has also urged its citizens to leave Israel urgently, further emphasizing the perceived risks of a broader regional escalation. Despite the seriousness of the developments, market reactions have been relatively contained so far, as investors could largely expecting a diplomatic approach in prevent a full-blown conflict.

USDJPY: Consolidation Amid Mixed Outlook​

The USDJPY pair remains in a tight consolidation phase, trading just below the key resistance level at 145.00. Price action has been relatively muted despite rising geopolitical tensions and the approaching Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Federal Reserve meetings—two major catalysts that could soon break the current range.



Image Source: USDJPY, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Market Drivers:

• BOJ Outlook: If the BOJ hints at policy tightening or signals reduced bond purchases, it could strengthen the yen and push USDJPY lower.
• Fed Policy: Conversely, if the Fed delivers a hawkish tone—despite cooling inflation data—it may lift the dollar, supporting a breakout above 145.00.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

BOJ Holds Rates, Unveils Gradual Tapering Plan Amid Global Uncertainties​

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% on Tuesday, maintaining its highest level in 17 years while signaling a cautious approach toward policy normalization. The decision was unanimous, extending the pause in rate hikes since the 25-basis point increase in January. In its June meeting, the BOJ also outlined a clear tapering plan for its Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases—a move seen as the central bank’s next step in unwinding years of ultra-loose policy without unsettling markets.

BOJ’s Gradual Tapering​

Under the new plan, the BOJ will reduce JGB purchases by ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then taper more slowly at ¥200 billion per quarter until March 2027. The central bank aims to shrink its JGB holdings by about 17% by that time, including natural maturities. The plan was approved by an 8-1 vote. This gradual approach signals the BOJ’s intent to normalize monetary policy while minimizing the risk of market disruption, particularly in the bond and foreign exchange markets.

Ueda’s Cautious Tone​

In the post-meeting press conference, Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a cautious tone, highlighting external risks such as U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. He emphasized that future rate decisions will be data-dependent, hinging on whether inflation can sustainably exceed the 2% target. While Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, some weakness remains, particularly in consumption. Ueda noted that inflation expectations have risen moderately, but the BOJ still sees underlying inflation expectation below target.

Ueda also warned that the latest U.S. trade tariffs could weigh on Japan’s wage growth and corporate bonus outlook, potentially stalling the momentum needed for policy tightening. Meanwhile, ongoing instability in the Middle East could keep oil and food prices elevated, feeding into broader inflation expectations. In response to questions about bond market stability, Ueda reaffirmed that the BOJ stands ready to intervene with fixed-rate bond operations or liquidity tools if long-term yields spike abruptly.

Outlook: Normalization Pace Slows​

With its cautious guidance and tapering plan, the Bank of Japan is clearly signaling that monetary policy normalization will remain gradual and data-dependent. While the central bank continues to leave the door open for future tightening, the slightly more cautious tone—particularly on global risks—has tempered market expectations for another rate hike in the near term. Shawn, Senior Analyst at Ultima Markets, stated: “Given the BOJ’s growing caution around external uncertainties, the normalization timeline may now be pushed further out.” Shawn added: “If inflation evolves in line with BOJ projections, the next rate hike is likely to come no earlier than Q4 2025.”

Market Reaction: JGB Yields Slight Uptick​

Image Source: JGB 10-Year Bond Yields; Source: Ultima Market

The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield saw a slight uptick following the BoJ press conference, as markets interpreted the announced tapering of bond purchases as a potential step toward future policy tightening. Investors are beginning to price in the possibility of higher interest rates ahead, which pushed long-term yields modestly higher. Over the longer term, sustained yield increases could also lend support to the Japanese Yen.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Fed Holds Rates, Hints at 2025 Cuts: Dollar Rebounds Modestly Amid Tariff & Geopolitical Risks​

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as widely expected. However, policymakers signaled that rate cuts are still likely in 2025—though Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned against placing too much confidence in that outlook, citing ongoing uncertainties around tariffs and inflation.

Summary of Economic Projection & Powell's Press Conference Highlights​

With the decision to hold rates largely priced in, market attention turned to the June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The updated dot plot shows that the Fed still anticipates two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of 2025. However, views remain divided—some Fed officials foresee no cuts at all, underscoring the uncertainty around the rate path.

• June’s SEP Fed Dot Plot

Image Source: Source: Federal Reserve

While a majority of officials still expect two or more rate cuts in 2025, the split in opinions reflects the cautious stance the Fed is maintaining in light of mixed economic signals.

During the press conference, Powell reiterated that the dot plot projections are not commitments, but rather “weak signals” subject to change. He emphasized that future policy moves will remain data-dependent and flexible. Importantly, Powell flagged the rising inflation risks, citing two key concerns: Tariff-related uncertainties, which could push prices higher , and geopolitical tensions, including elevated oil prices driven by Middle East instability. He noted that any easing would likely depend on clear signs of cooling inflation in the coming months.

• Fed Economic Projection

Image Source: Source: Federal Reserve, Chart: Ultima Market

The Fed’s economic outlook signals slower growth and elevated inflation in 2025, reinforcing its cautious approach toward future rate cuts. Shawn, Senior Analyst at Ultima Market, stated: “The Fed’s stance hasn’t changed—it remains firmly data-driven, especially with inflation still clouded by tariff-related uncertainties.” He added, “Markets are likely to increase bets on rate cuts if inflation shows clear signs of cooling in the coming months, particularly ahead of the September meeting.”

Market Shows Mixed Reaction: Dollar Rebounds Modestly, Uncertainty Remains​

U.S. equity markets closed slightly lower on Wednesday, reflecting a mixed reaction to the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. While the Fed held rates steady as expected, its tone signaled patience and uncertainty, prompting a modest retreat in stocks. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar remained supported, with investors interpreting the Fed’s guidance as a sign that rates could stay higher for longer—especially in light of persistent inflation and slower growth.

• USDX—Dollar Index, Day Chart Analysis

Image Source: Source: Ultima Market MT5

Despite a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar following the FOMC meeting, the broader outlook remains clouded as the Fed’s overall stance showed little change. The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) continues to trend lower, struggling to reclaim the key 99–100 level. Without a sustained move above this range, it suggests that investor confidence in a stronger dollar remains limited, particularly given ongoing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability and tariff-related uncertainties.

Key Takeaways:​

• The Fed maintained a steady rate policy, emphasizing a data-dependent approach moving forward.
• The latest dot plot projects two rate cuts in 2025, but the timing remains unclear due to elevated inflation and weaker growth forecasts.
• Geopolitical risks, tariff-related inflation pressures, and concerns over data quality have become central to the Fed’s policy outlook.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Policy Divergence: BoE Hints at Gradual Cuts, SNB Cuts to Zero – Analyzing GBPCHF Outlook​

The foreign exchange market saw heightened volatility on Thursday as two major European central banks—the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB)—delivered policy updates that reflected diverging paths on rate decisions.

BoE Holds Steady, Signals Cautious Easing Ahead​

The Bank of England left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected. However, the 6-3 vote split on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)—with three members voting for an immediate rate cut—was slightly more dovish than markets had anticipated. This suggests momentum is building internally toward rate reductions, although the BoE emphasized future cuts would be “gradual and carefully considered” given lingering inflation risks.

Key drivers behind the decision include: June payrolls saw their biggest monthly drop since 2020, signaling softening labor demand. While headline inflation eased to 3.4% in May, services inflation remained elevated, keeping underlying price pressures stubbornly high. External risks, such as ongoing Middle East tensions and higher oil prices (~$77/bbl), alongside U.S. tariff uncertainty, added pressure to the UK’s economic outlook.

The BoE expects inflation to peak near 3.7% in Q3, then ease to around 3.5% by year-end. Markets are now pricing in the first BoE rate cut in August, with a terminal rate of 3.75% by year-end.

SNB Cuts Rate to Zero, Ending Tightening Cycle​

In a more decisive shift compared to the Bank of England’s cautious approach, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0%. This marks its sixth rate cut since March 2024 and first return to a zero-rate environment since 2022.

The decision was driven by easing domestic inflation pressures and the ongoing strength of the Swiss franc , which has helped contain imported inflation.

In its policy statement, the SNB highlighted the rate cut's aim to counter weak inflation trends and reduce upward pressure on the franc. The bank flagged ongoing global risks, including trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, and slowing global demand. While moving toward a neutral policy stance, the SNB emphasized it remains ready to act again should inflation deviate from target levels. Notably, the SNB made clear it retains flexibility in using both interest rates and FX market tools, reaffirming FX intervention as a live option to manage excessive franc appreciation. Negative interest rates are not entirely ruled out but would be considered with caution due to potential side effects.

GBPCHF: Rebound on Policy Divergence​

The GBPCHF pair rebounded from a two-month low, lifted by the growing policy divergence between the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. After dipping to the 1.0950 level, the British pound regained ground against the franc, supported by expectations that the BoE will remain more cautious compared to the SNB’s dovish turn.

• GBPCHF, 4-H Chart Analysis
  
  
  
  Image Source: GBPCHF, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Technically, 1.0950–1.1050 serves as a major range-bound zone for the pair. A clearer move would only emerge upon a breakout from this current range. While policy divergence could be favorable to the pound, traders should remain cautious about any short-term moves.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Global Equities Tumble as US & Israeli Airstrikes Escalate Middle East Tensions; Oil Surges​

Global equities declined at Monday’s open as investors reassessed risk sentiment amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The drop followed news of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, sparking fears of retaliation and broader regional instability.

Market Overview & Middle East Tensions​

Asian markets fell sharply, while U.S. and European equity futures also traded lower in early hours. Risk-off sentiment prevailed as traders moved to hedge against potential geopolitical fallout.

Oil prices continued their upward momentum, surging to five-month highs on fears of supply disruptions. Brent crude rose to $79 per barrel, while WTI crude climbed to $78.50 per barrel. These gains were driven by market concerns over the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil transit route.

Geopolitical risks spiked after the U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The strikes, carried out on June 21, targeted facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan using bunker-buster bombs and cruise missiles. The U.S. described the attacks as having “obliterated” key components of Iran’s nuclear program. Israel reportedly continues the operation, focusing on Iranian missile and nuclear infrastructure.

In response, Iran launched a retaliatory barrage of missiles and drones at Israel, with confirmed strikes on Be’er Sheva, including a hospital and civilian areas. Also, Iran threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz and called for international condemnation, accusing the West of aggression. Over the international response, Russia and China called for an immediate ceasefire and diplomatic dialogue, while the U.N. Security Council convened an emergency session, urging de-escalation. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump praised the strikes and hinted at the possibility of regime change in Iran.

Global Equities Slide on Uneased Sentiment​

Global stock markets opened lower on Monday as unease over geopolitical risks weighed on investor sentiment. This weakness is notable given that many major global indices are trading near all-time highs.

• SP500: Facing Challenge at 6000-mark In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index edged slightly lower at the open, struggling to regain ground above the key 6,000-mark—a level it has been consolidating around for some time. From a technical perspective, the recent price action suggests a loss of bullish momentum. With sentiment already fragile, any significant shift—especially from geopolitical developments or surprise economic data—could quickly accelerate downside pressure.
  
  
  
  Image Source: SP500, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5
• EU50: Bearish Breakout Signals Further Downside Risk In Europe, the EuroStoxx 50 (EU50) staged a bearish breakout, breaching the lower boundary of a recent triangle pattern and falling below the key 5,300 support level.
  
  
  
  Image Source: EU50, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5 With sentiment remaining fragile amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty, the technical breakdown suggests that EU50 faces increased risk of further downside in the near term.

Summary​

While escalating Middle East tensions may not be the primary drag on equities, broader market caution persists due to upcoming central bank decisions and ongoing uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade and fiscal policies. For now, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines, with risk appetite fragile. Any negative developments—geopolitical or macroeconomic—could quickly sour sentiment and trigger renewed volatility.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Oil & Gold Tumble on Israel-Iran Ceasefire Hopes: Is Risk Premium Fading?​

Tensions in the Middle East saw a dramatic shift on Monday as U.S. President Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, following nearly two weeks of intense military confrontation. The ceasefire—reportedly brokered through Qatar—comes after a wave of retaliatory missile and drone strikes that had destabilized the region and rattled global financial markets.

Ceasefire Likely, But Still Uncertain​

While President Trump claimed a ceasefire had been reached, neither Iran nor Israel has formally confirmed the agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran would halt its attacks if Israel ceases airstrikes by 4 a.m. local time. Araghchi posted: “As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 a.m. Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.” This conditional stance suggests that tensions could quickly flare again if no mutual confirmation or coordinated de-escalation is achieved.

Market Reaction: Commodities Tumble on Ceasefire Hopes​

Despite the absence of an official ceasefire confirmation from either Israel or Iran, markets responded swiftly to the apparent easing of geopolitical tensions. Crude oil prices plunged by more than 10% on Tuesday morning as hopes for de-escalation gained traction. Brent crude slipped below the $70 per barrel mark, while WTI crude fell back near its pre-conflict levels, reflecting a sharp unwinding of war-risk premiums.

Gold, which had rallied to near-record highs of $3430 last week amid heightened safe-haven demand , also experienced a modest pullback. The precious metal stabilized around $3330, with the softening in geopolitical risks reducing short-term demand. Nonetheless, gold remains underpinned by broader macroeconomic uncertainties.

In the equities market, improved risk appetite triggered a moderate rebound across global indices, as investors reassessed the likelihood of worst-case conflict scenarios and shifted focus back to economic fundamentals.

Oil & Gold: Technical Outlook​

• Gold: $3,330 Holds Despite recent fluctuations, gold has largely remained range-bound, trading between the $3390 and $3350 levels. From a technical standpoint, the $3335 level continues to act as a key support area for gold.
  
  
  
  Image Source: XAUUSD, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5
• WTI: Retest the $66 Level WTI saw a sharp pullback, retreating to its pre-conflict level near $66 per barrel—a key psychological level that has played a significant role over the past four years. This zone is likely to remain a crucial support for WTI in the near term.
  
  
  
  Image Source: USOUSD WTI, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Market Outlook​

The ceasefire has provided immediate relief to global markets, but the path forward remains uncertain. Traders will be closely watching developments in the region and Iran’s next steps in nuclear negotiations. Any resurgence in conflict could rapidly reverse the current trend in commodities and reignite volatility.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Powell's Testimony: Fed Sees No Rush for Rate Cuts, Citing Tariff & Inflation Risks​

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered another cautious tone during his testimony before Congress on Tuesday, reiterating that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates. Despite increasing market expectations for policy easing, Powell emphasized that the Fed remains firmly committed to a data-dependent approach.

Tariffs and Inflation Concerns Remain, Outlook Uncertain​

Powell reiterated that the Fed remains firmly data-dependent and will wait for clearer signs that inflation is sustainably returning to its 2% target before adjusting rates. In particular, Powell warned that recent tariff increases could fuel upward pressure on inflation in the coming months. He noted that while the U.S. labor market remains strong and economic growth resilient, global uncertainties—including trade policy and geopolitical tensions—still pose uncertainty risk to inflationary pressures. Powell also pushed back on calls to cut rates in response to political pressure, stating: “I do not want to point to a particular meeting. I don’t think we need to be in any rush”.

• Fed Target Rate Probabilities for September
  
  
  
  Image Source: Source: CME FedWatch

The Fed’s economic outlook signals slower growth and elevated inflation in 2025, reinforcing its cautious approach toward future rate cuts. Shawn, Senior Analyst at Ultima Market, stated: “The Fed’s stance hasn’t changed—it remains firmly data-driven, especially with inflation still clouded by tariff-related uncertainties”. He added, “Markets are likely to increase bets on rate cuts if inflation shows clear signs of cooling in the coming months, particularly ahead of the September meeting”.

Market Reaction: Focus on September Cuts, Dollar Under Pressure​

Following Powell’s remarks, markets scaled back expectations for a July rate cut. Fed Funds Futures now show an 81.4% probability of no change in July, increased sharply from earlier weeks. However, expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September rose to 68.8%, up from 53.1% just a week ago, suggesting investors see easing still on the table—but at a slower pace.

The U.S. Dollar further extended downside but broadly held steady, while Treasury yields edged slightly lower as markets digested Powell’s cautious tone.

• USDX—Dollar Index, 4-H Chart Analysis
  
  
  
  Image Source: Source: Ultima Market MT5

From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index (USDX) remains in a bearish posture, struggling to reclaim the key 99–100 resistance zone. Without any fresh catalysts to support a rebound—such as stronger economic data or a shift in monetary or Trump policy—the dollar is likely to stay under pressure in the near term.

Markets will be closely watching Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—PCE Price Index. A softer-than-expected reading would likely boost expectations for a September rate cut and another cut later this year, reinforcing Powell’s data-centric approach and potentially giving the Fed greater flexibility.

Key Takeaways:​

• The Fed maintained a steady rate policy, emphasizing a data-dependent approach moving forward.
• The latest dot plot projects two rate cuts in 2025, but the timing remains unclear due to elevated inflation and weaker growth forecasts.
• Geopolitical risks, tariff-related inflation pressures, and concerns over data quality have become central to the Fed’s policy outlook.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Oil & Gold Tumble on Israel-Iran Ceasefire Hopes: Is Risk Premium Fading?​

Tensions in the Middle East saw a dramatic shift on Monday as U.S. President Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, following nearly two weeks of intense military confrontation. The ceasefire—reportedly brokered through Qatar—comes after a wave of retaliatory missile and drone strikes that had destabilized the region and rattled global financial markets.

Ceasefire Likely, But Still Uncertain​

While President Trump claimed a ceasefire had been reached , neither Iran nor Israel has formally confirmed the agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran would halt its attacks if Israel ceases airstrikes by 4 a.m. local time. Araghchi posted: “As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 a.m. Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.” This conditional stance suggests that tensions could quickly flare again if no mutual confirmation or coordinated de-escalation is achieved.

Market Reaction: Commodities Tumble on Ceasefire Hopes​

Despite the absence of an official ceasefire confirmation from either Israel or Iran, markets responded swiftly to the apparent easing of geopolitical tensions. Crude oil prices plunged by more than 10% on Tuesday morning as hopes for de-escalation gained traction. Brent crude slipped below the $70 per barrel mark, while WTI crude fell back near its pre-conflict levels , reflecting a sharp unwinding of war-risk premiums.

Gold, which had rallied to near-record highs of $3430 last week amid heightened safe-haven demand , also experienced a modest pullback. The precious metal stabilized around $3330 , with the softening in geopolitical risks reducing short-term demand. Nonetheless, gold remains underpinned by broader macroeconomic uncertainties.

In the equities market, improved risk appetite triggered a moderate rebound across global indices, as investors reassessed the likelihood of worst-case conflict scenarios and shifted focus back to economic fundamentals.

Oil & Gold: Technical Outlook​

• Gold: $3,330 Holds Despite recent fluctuations, gold has largely remained range-bound, trading between the $3390 and $3350 levels. From a technical standpoint, the $3335 level continues to act as a key support area for gold.
  
  
  
  Image Source: XAUUSD, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5
• WTI: Retest the $66 Level WTI saw a sharp pullback, retreating to its pre-conflict level near $66 per barrel—a key psychological level that has played a significant role over the past four years. This zone is likely to remain a crucial support for WTI in the near term.
  
  
  
  Image Source: USOUSD WTI, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Market Outlook​

The ceasefire has provided immediate relief to global markets , but the path forward remains uncertain. Traders will be closely watching developments in the region and Iran’s next steps in nuclear negotiations. Any resurgence in conflict could rapidly reverse the current trend in commodities and reignite volatility.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Global Stocks Rally with Wall Street, But July Risks Loom from Tariffs & US Jobs Data​

Global equity markets followed Wall Street’s lead, extending gains after the S&P500 and Nasdaq Index both closed at fresh record highs last week, driven by strength in U.S. tech stocks and optimism over the eased geopolitical outlook. Asia-Pacific indices and European futures posted modest advances on Monday’s opening, with sentiment buoyed by improving investors sentiment and a weaker U.S. dollar.

U.S. Strength Supports Global Risk Assets, But July Risks Loom​

The U.S. equity rally—fueled by AI-driven tech stocks and soft inflation readings—has provided a tailwind for global markets. Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue to benefit from easing expectations on Fed policy, as traders grow confident that the central bank could begin cutting rates later this year.

However, despite the upbeat momentum, investors may now remain cautiously optimistic as the market approaches a critical period in early July, where Trump’s 90-day tariff pause could test the resilience of the risk rally.

Trump’s 90-Day Tariff Pause Set to Due​

One of the major market concerns is the upcoming July 9 due date on U.S. President Trump’s 90-day pause on planned tariffs. While markets have priced in positively on the temporary calm, any signals of tariff reinstatement or trade concern rhetoric could reignite global trade tensions—particularly between the U.S. and China trade truce that remains uncertain.

Such a development would likely weigh on risk-sensitive assets and currencies, especially the Australian Dollar or Canadian Dollar and emerging market equities, which are highly exposed to global trade dynamics. Furthermore, if the trade dynamic changes, this could lead to a broader market challenge as well.

All Eyes on U.S. Labor Market Data This Week​

Adding to the cautious stance is the importance of upcoming U.S. labor market data, including:

• ADP Employment Change (Wednesday, July 2)
• Nonfarm payrolls report (Thursday, July 3)

Image Source: U.S. Key Labor Data | Source: Ultima Market Economic Calendar

Economists are forecasting +110,000 jobs added in June, with unemployment ticking up to 4.3%. A weaker-than-expected print could strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, potentially fueling further equity upside —but may also raise concerns about U.S. economic resilience.

Outlook: Positive Momentum Meets Event Risk​

While global equities are supported by Wall Street strength and easing inflation, markets may enter a more volatile phase in July. With Trump’s tariff pause nearing expiration and key labor market data due, investors are likely to stay selective, favoring assets with strong earnings visibility and lower geopolitical exposure.

Shawn, Ultima Market Senior Analyst, stated: “Until clearer signals emerge, the current phase is likely to remain a battle between bullish momentum and cautious positioning.”

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

U.S. Dollar Hits Multi-Year Lows: Fiscal and Policy Uncertainty Driving Decline​

The U.S. Dollar came under renewed selling pressure on Monday, with the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) sliding below the 96 mark—its lowest level in more than three years. The greenback has now lost nearly 11% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst first-half performance since 1973.

What’s Driving the Dollar Decline?​

Several key factors are contributing to the dollar’s sharp depreciation:

• Dovish Federal Reserve Outlook: Market participants have increasingly priced in the potential for rate cuts later this year, as the Fed maintains a cautious, data-dependent stance. This has diminished the appeal of the dollar compared to higher-yielding or risk-linked currencies.
• Mounting U.S. Fiscal Concerns: The U.S. government faces a growing fiscal challenge, with over 55% of the $9.2 trillion in Treasury debt maturing in 2025 coming due in July. Investors are increasingly uneasy about the scale of refinancing required amid persistent deficits.
• Uncertainty Around Trump’s Trade and Fiscal Policy: The 90-day pause on Trump’s tariff policy is set to expire on July 9, raising concerns about a renewed wave of trade disruptions. Meanwhile, sweeping tax cuts and spending proposals from the Trump administration are further fueling deficit worries.

Shawn, Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, stated: “Potential increases in the budget deficit, persistent fiscal concerns, and lingering uncertainty around upcoming tariff decisions are all weighing heavily on the U.S. Dollar.”

Markets React: Equities Climb as Dollar Lags​

Despite the dollar’s weakness, U.S. equities continue to hit fresh record highs , reflecting investor appetite for risk assets and a rotation out of traditional safe havens. The dollar’s decline is also creating tailwinds for overseas markets, particularly in Europe and emerging economies. The EURUSD extended gains to a four-year high, approaching the 1.1800 level as of writing. This divergence between falling dollar strength and rising equities underlines shifting capital flows away from the dollar and into global growth opportunities.

What to Watch Next​

The weakness in the U.S. Dollar is likely to persist under the current macro landscape. With little in the way of supportive catalysts, market attention will now shift toward key U.S. labor market data this week—most notably the ADP employment report (July 2) and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report (July3).

These data points will be crucial in shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s rate path and how market sees the U.S. economy outlook:

• Stronger-than-expected job figures could cool Fed rate cut bets, offering some short-term support for the dollar.
• Weaker labor market data, on the other hand, would signal economic softness and deepen expectations for monetary easing, keeping further pressure on the dollar.

Simply put, If the U.S. labor market shows signs of weakening, it would reinforce the view of a slowing economy—and the dollar could see more downside ahead.

• USDX, Weekly Chart Outlook
  
  
  
  Image Source: Source: Ultima Market MT5
  The U.S. Dollar slipped below the 97 mark, hitting its lowest level since January 2022.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Central Banks Signal Diverging Paths: Inflation Slowdown Sets Stage for FX Market Dynamics​

Global financial markets turned their attention to Sintra on Monday as key central bank leaders — including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda — shared their latest policy perspectives during the ECB’s annual Central Bank Forum in Portugal. While all four acknowledged the progress in taming inflation, the forum exposed clear divergences in the pace and confidence of potential rate cuts, reinforcing that the path to policy normalization remains uneven across regions.

Fed’s Powell & ECB’s Lagarde: “Data-Dependent” Path Forward​

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious but slightly dovish tone, noting that while inflation is trending in the right direction, the Fed still needs to see “more good data” to gain confidence that inflation is sustainably heading back to the 2% target. “We are making progress, but not declaring victory,” said Powell, keeping the door open for a possible rate cut as soon as September, if upcoming jobs and inflation data continue to show improvement.

Similarly, ECB President Christine Lagarde reaffirmed the central bank’s data-dependent approach, stating that while goods inflation has eased, services inflation remains sticky. She emphasized that there is “no predefined path” for rate cuts and that policy will remain flexible and conditional on future data. Markets are still assessing whether the ECB will deliver another cut by September. Lagarde’s remarks suggest that a cut remains possible, but only if price pressures continue to ease further in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the probabilities for Fed cut in September holds at 71.8%, according to CME FedWatch.

• September Fed Cut Probabilities

Image Source: Source: CME Fedwatch

BoE’s Bailey: “No Green Light Yet”​

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey maintained a cautious and hawkish stance, stating that while UK inflation has declined sharply, persistent wage growth and service sector inflation remain a concern. “We are not yet at a point where we can safely say inflation is back under control,” Bailey said. His tone disappointed markets hoping for a summer rate cut. GBP firmed slightly after his comments, as expectations for a BoE rate cut shifted further into Q4.

BoJ’s Ueda: “Too Early for Aggressive Tightening”​

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted Japan’s continued progress in wage growth, but suggested the BoJ would move slowly on normalizing policy, citing the need for more consistent evidence of sustained inflation above 2%. “We are still watching for signs that inflation is truly embedded,” Ueda said. The yen weakened slightly after his comments, as markets interpreted the stance as dovish, reinforcing that Japan remains the global outlier in monetary policy.

Setting the Stage for FX Market Shifts​

While the overall tone from major central bank leaders remained largely unchanged from their previous meetings, policy paths now appear to be diverging, laying the groundwork for potential shifts in FX dynamics. Although immediate market reaction was muted, traders are now turning their focus to what comes next.

• U.S. Dollar remains under pressure amid ongoing fiscal concerns and trade uncertainty. Weakness could extend further if this week’s U.S. labor data disappoints.
• Japanese Yen continues to trade heavy as the Bank of Japan stays dovish, but with the Yen hovering near major technical support, any shift in tone or yields could trigger volatility.
• Euro and Pound remain volatile as both the ECB and BoE balance easing inflation trends with sticky wage pressures, creating uncertainty around the pace of further policy easing.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Pound Sinks, Gilt Yields Surge on UK Fiscal Jitters: What's Next for Sterling?​

The British Pound tumbled nearly 1% on Wednesday, hitting a six-day low against the U.S. Dollar, as investors grew increasingly concerned about the UK government’s fiscal discipline following an unexpected policy reversal and a politically charged session in Parliament.

Pound Sinks, Gilt Yields Surge​

Sterling slid to 1.3600 against the US Dollar, its lowest level in two weeks, while the 10-year gilt yield briefly spiked to 4.68% before easing to 4.613% by the close. The selloff marked the steepest one-day move in UK bond markets since April 2025.

The volatility was triggered by the government’s abrupt decision to reverse £5 billion in welfare spending cuts—a core pillar of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal strategy. The reversal has now cast doubt over the government's commitment to its self-imposed debt reduction plan, unsettling both FX and the bond market in UK.

• UK Gilt 10-Year Yields
  
  
  
  Image Source: Chart: Trading View

Chancellor Reeves’ visibly emotional appearance during Prime Minister’s Questions added to the market unease. Her reaction quickly went viral, sparking speculation about her stability in the role and the broader direction of the UK Treasury. While Prime Minister Keir Starmer offered a firm public show of support, stating that Reeves has his “full backing,” the incident left lingering doubts among investors about internal competence within the government’s economic and fiscal credibility.

Potential Bank of England Intervention, Market Confidence Shaken But Not Broken​

In response to the turmoil, the Bank of England is widely expected to reassess its recent monetary policy, amid signs that renewed bond market volatility could complicate the financial conditions. The central bank’s next moves will be critical, especially as inflation expectations and growth concerns remain delicately balanced heading into Q3.

Shawn, Ultima Senior Market Analyst, stated: “Cautious on any further Policy path changes, if Gilt volatility continues, the BoE may step in and this could lead to further volatility in the Pound.”

GBP/USD broke below the psychological 1.3700 level and losses toward the 1.3600, while EUR/GBP spiked toward 0.8600, reflecting pound’s weakness across majors. The developments also highlight rising risks heading into the next fiscal statement, where the Treasury will need to reassure markets that its fiscal strategy remains intact—even as it faces political pressure to ease. Shawn, Senior Analyst at Ultima Market, stated: “Despite this setback, the UK macro-outlook remains relatively stable—provided the government can swiftly restore policy coherence.” He added: “But it’s a warning shot for UK fiscal credibility, especially with the BoE still on a cautious easing trajectory. Any misstep now could easily dent market confidence.”

GBP/USD Outlook: 1.3600 Key Level in Focus​

Sterling extended losses against the U.S. Dollar, retreating from recent highs near 1.3790 and breaking below the key 1.3700 psychological level. However, price action continues to find support above 1.3600, marking this as a critical zone to watch.

• GBPUSD, 4-H Chart Analysis
  
  
  
  Image Source: Source: Ultima Market MT5

From a technical perspective, the move reflects deteriorating investor sentiment toward the pound amid rising fiscal uncertainty. A sustained break below 1.3600 could open the door to deeper downside pressure—especially notable given the broader weakness in the U.S. dollar, which normally supports GBP strength. Unless confidence is swiftly restored, the pair may struggle to recover, and traders will likely treat 1.3600 as the near-term make-or-break level.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

US Job Growth Beats Expectations, but Mixed Signals Temper Enthusiasm; Dollar & Stocks Rise​

The U.S. labor market posted a stronger-than-expected performance in June, bolstering optimism over the economy’s resilience and pushing both the U.S. Dollar and major U.S. stock indices higher. However, underlying labor data revealed mixed signals, tempering the overall enthusiasm.

June Jobs Report Highlights & Market Reaction​

Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 147,000, beating expectations of 110,000, and building on a revised May gain of 144,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%, marking its lowest level since February 2025.

However, wage growth showed signs of cooling, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below May’s pace and below market expectations. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate dipped to 62.3%, its weakest level since 2022, raising concerns about the breadth of the recovery. While the headline job growth was largely supported by gains in public-sector and healthcare hiring, private-sector job creation came in at just 74,000 — the softest pace since October 2024.

• June Labor Data at a Glance:
  
  • Non-Farm Payrolls: +147,000 (vs. 110,000 expected)
  • Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (vs. 4.3% expected)
  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.2% MoM, +3.7% YoY (vs. 0.3% MoM, 3.9% YoY expected)
  • Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.3% (vs. 62.5% prior)

Despite the mixed details, the headline strength supported a rebound in the U.S. Dollar and helped lift U.S. stock indices—including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—to fresh record highs, as markets reassessed the timeline for potential Fed easing. Investors are now closely watching the upcoming CPI report, with market pricing still favoring a potential Fed rate cut in September, though the odds have slightly moderated following this report.

• Fed Rate Probabilities
  
  • The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 66.7% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, down slightly from earlier in the week.
  • Meanwhile, 94.8% see no cuts in July now.

The U.S. Dollar strengthened in the immediate aftermath of the June jobs report, with the Dollar Index (DXY) rising approximately 0.6% on the day. Equities also responded positively at first, pushing major indices to fresh record highs. However, sentiment turned more cautious toward the close, as investors digested the mixed signals within the labor data—particularly the soft wage growth and falling participation rate. In addition, broader macro uncertainty lingers, especially with the U.S. tariff pause deadline set for July 9, which could reintroduce trade-related risk into the US Dollar.

Outlook for US Dollar Index​

Despite the post-NFP bounce, the Dollar Index’s rebound remains modest in the context of its recent downtrend. The overall technical structure still favors the downside, with the index struggling to regain key levels lost earlier in the week. As long as there is no strong catalyst—such as significantly hotter inflation data or a material shift in Fed rhetoric—the DXY is unlikely to stage a meaningful reversal.



Image Source: USDX, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Strong Start to H2 2025: Equities Climb, Dollar Weakens, But Fiscal & Policy Risks Loom
Global markets kicked off the second half of 2025 on a positive footing, driven by strong equity momentum, improving global trade sentiment, and stable corporate earnings. However, lingering uncertainties over U.S. fiscal policy and commodity dynamics continue to pose downside risks.

U.S. Jobs Beat Forecasts, But Dollar Remains Soft

The June Nonfarm Payrolls report surprised to the upside with +147,000 jobs added, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%. The data reinforced the view that the U.S. labor market remains resilient. Yet, the U.S. Dollar stayed weak, with only modest recalibration in rate cut expectations for September. Markets still largely price in a Fed cut later this quarter. Dollar softness also stems from fiscal concerns linked to Trump’s proposed tax reforms—billed as "big, beautiful bills"—which have reignited worries over long-term debt sustainability and policy coherence.

Gold Slips as Risk Appetite Grows

Gold prices continued to edge lower, reflecting reduced safe-haven demand as equities rose and volatility remained contained. With the Fed adopting a cautious tone and geopolitical risks easing, capital is rotating out of defensive assets like bullion and into higher-risk instruments.

Image Source: XAUUSD, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Despite facing some downside pressure last week, gold continues to trade within a broad consolidation range. Notably, the price has remained above the key psychological level of $3,300, which serves as a near-term support and a critical confidence indicator for the market. Holding above this level may signal sustained bullish sentiment, while any decisive break below could trigger further downside momentum.

Oil: OPEC+ Surprises with Output Hike, Prices Steady

OPEC+ announced a production increase of 548,000 bpd for August, exceeding expectations and pushing oil markets into a new phase of adjustment. Prices initially bounced late last week but softened over the weekend, as traders digested the supply increase alongside mixed demand signals from Asia and Europe. Both WTI and Brent remain in a consolidation range, with direction likely to be shaped by inventory data and macro indicators this week.

Equities: Bullish Momentum Carries Over

Stock markets continued their Q2 momentum into July, with major global indices climbing, supported by:

• Optimism around trade normalization
• Receding inflation concerns
• Robust corporate earnings guidance, particularly in tech and industrials

Investors now look to this week’s economic calendar and event—including the Trump’s tariff 90-days pause—to determine whether the rally can extend or faces fresh volatility.

Market View: Confidence Intact, But Watch for Policy Risks

Shawn Lee, Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Market, stated: “Markets are entering Q3 with strong momentum, but policy and trade risks—especially around U.S. fiscal outlook—could easily derail sentiment,”. Shawn added: “Despite solid fundamentals kicking off July, I remain cautious on the U.S. Dollar outlook due to unresolved fiscal risks. Equities may extend gains, but any shock from policy missteps or global data surprises could turn the tide quickly, and this week can be a decisive week”.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Tariff Deadline Extended to August 1: Global Markets Rattle, Gold Sees Safe-Haven Demand​

U.S. President Trump extended the U.S. tariff deadline to August 1, sending fresh tremors to global markets as investors stay cautious on a possible wave of trade penalties. The announcement, paired with a broader warning to its key trade partners and the BRICS nations, highlights potential rising pressure heading into the second half of 2025.

Trump Extends Deadline, Broadens Threat Scope​

On Sunday, President Trump signed an executive order postponing the tariff implementation deadline to August 1, giving trade partners additional time to reach concessions. The move followed a week of intense diplomatic engagements, with letters sent to countries including Japan, South Korea, and several BRICS members, warning of tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on specific goods.

Trump said on Monday that the August 1 deadline for imposing reciprocal tariffs is “firm, but not 100% firm”, adding that he is open to alternate proposals if trade partners request changes.

Targeting BRICS and Country-Specific Rates​

According to the Trump administration, BRICS countries could be subject to new tariffs if their trade policies are deemed as “anti-American”, though the enforcement remains unclear. Trump also announced via Truth Social that any country “aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS” will face an additional 10% tariffs—with “no exceptions.” This warning is aimed at BRICS members such as China, India, South Africa and others, should they pursue policies deemed as contrary to U.S. interests.

He also announced new tariff rates on 14 countries including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia, which may also face specific tariff rates ranging from 25% to 40% on specific goods unless negotiations are concluded.

Motivation Behind the Move & Market Reaction​

Trump’s latest tariff maneuver appears aimed at increasing pressure on BRICS nations while retaining leverage in ongoing trade negotiations. Shawn, Ultima Markets Senior Analyst, stated: “The delay and expansion of tariffs grant Trump administration more flexibility to secure last-minute deals and apply political pressure.” He added: “While a full-scale tariff escalation still seems unlikely at this stage, with Trump, nothing is ever off the table. This uncertainty is expected to inject further volatility into global markets.”

U.S. stock futures dropped, while Asian and European equities turned lower Monday following the tariff announcement. Meanwhile, Gold strengthened on Monday after the initial session sell-off, reflecting a shift toward safe-haven amid renewed trade fears.

• XAUUSD, 2-H Chart Analysis

Image Source: Source: Ultima Market MT5

Technically, gold found solid support near the $3,300 level, a key zone that continues to attract buyers during risk-off episodes. While the rebound was modest, it signals underlying investor caution and the potential for stronger safe-haven flows should trade tensions escalate further.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Trump Targets 50% Copper Tariff, Sparking 18% Price Surge; FCX CFD Benefits​

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 50% on copper imports, a move aimed at reshaping supply chains for the key industrial metal that also risks upending the global copper market, driving up domestic inflation, and adding a new layer of uncertainty to the global economy.

On Tuesday, Trump unveiled the tariff plan, which far exceeded market expectations and sent U.S. copper futures prices spiking 13%—the largest single-day gain since 1968 and a new record closing high. U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutenick stated that the new tariffs could take effect as early as August 1, representing another round of trade barriers on key industrial goods, following those on steel, aluminum, and automobiles.

This move does not just affect copper. Trump also threatened high tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. Ultima Markets notes that this signals a potential further expansion of his protectionist trade policies, presenting new challenges for investors and markets.

Unexpected Tariffs and Market Shock​

The 50% copper tariff announced by the Trump administration, a rate roughly double the 25% widely anticipated by the market, caught investors off guard. The legal basis for this tariff is Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which authorizes the president to impose restrictions on imported goods for national security reasons. According to White House documents, the U.S. Department of Commerce has been investigating potential threats to copper supply for several months. The investigation concluded earlier than expected. Although the tariff plan has been announced, specific implementation details remain unclear.

The market reaction was swift and dramatic. New York spot copper prices (ticker on Ultima Markets MT5: Copper-C) surged as much as 18% from their lows.

Image Source: 1-Hour Chart of Copper Prices, Source: Ultima Markets MT5

As one of the leading U.S. copper producers, shares of Freeport-McMoRan also rallied on the news, rising over 8.8% at one point before closing with a 2.5% gain. CFDs on this stock are also available for direct trading on Ultima Markets' MT5 platform under the ticker FCX.

Image Source: Hour Chart of Freeport-McMoRan, Source: Ultima Markets MT5

The U.S. Copper Supply Chain's Reliance on Imports​

Copper is a cornerstone of modern industry, widely used in construction, automobiles, mobile phones, and computer chips. Its demand has surged recently due to the energy transition and the boom in data center construction. However, the United States is highly dependent on imports for this critical metal. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, net copper imports accounted for 53% of the nation's total demand last year. The main suppliers were Chile (45%), Canada (25%), Peru (6%), and Mexico (3%). Despite possessing ample copper reserves, the White House admitted in a February statement that "our smelting and refining capacity significantly lags behind our global competitors."

Potential Impact of Tariffs on Copper Prices: COMEX vs. LME​

Elon Gu, a senior analyst at Ultima Markets, noted, "We saw the potential impact of U.S. trade protectionism on commodities back in March, when prices for U.S. COMEX-related commodities were higher than LME prices. This creates a potential driver for higher global commodity prices." Because COMEX reflects the duty-paid price for physical delivery in the U.S., the tariffs will directly increase import costs, thus benefiting COMEX copper prices.

Image Source: TradeMap

However, this impact may be buffered in the short term. The U.S. has been stockpiling copper since the Section 232 investigation began. According to reports, the U.S. has imported an "additional" 400,000 metric tons of refined copper, equivalent to about six months of imports. These inventories can be consumed first, delaying the full pass-through of the tariffs to prices. Drawing from the experience with aluminum tariffs, price transmission also takes time.

Meanwhile, LME copper prices could face downward pressure. Previous tariff expectations led to a "rush to import" in the U.S., which at one point drained inventories in other parts of the world and supported LME prices. Once the tariffs take effect, U.S. import demand will drop sharply as consumers prioritize using cheaper, already onshore inventory. This would divert copper originally bound for the U.S. to other markets, potentially leading to looser supply conditions outside the U.S. and thus depressing LME copper prices.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Copper Surges to Record High as Trump Announces 50% Tariffs; Inflation & Trade War Alert​

On Wednesday, US President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports to take effect from August, citing a “robust” national security review under Section 232. He underscored copper’s critical role in key industries—including defense, electronics, and EVs—with the aim of boosting domestic production.

Copper Tariffs Set to Take Effect on August 1st, Market Reacts Strongly​

The front-month COMEX copper (HG!) climbed to $5.8750 per pound, marking its historical high. The rally came after reports emerged that the Trump administration had sent formal letters to several major trade partners—most notably China, Brazil, and South Africa—warning of a potential tariff hike targeting "strategic materials," including copper and other base metals. Copper prices further surged higher on Wednesday after the Administration confirmed the 50% tariffs set to take effective on August 1st.

Trump stated via Truth Social: “We will not allow countries that undercut American miners and dump subsidized metals into our economy. If they don’t play fair, we’ll raise the cost to 50%—no exceptions.” This move adds a new layer of uncertainty to global supply chains, especially at a time when copper inventories remain tight and demand from renewable energy and electric vehicle (EV) sectors continues to grow.

Copper spot and futures prices rallied sharply in both New York and London, while related mining stocks jumped on expectations of tighter supply and higher margins. However, the broader market reaction was mixed, as rising input costs stoked inflationary concerns. Shawn Lee, Senior Analyst at Ultima Markets, commented: “A 50% copper tariff would distort global pricing, disrupt supply chains, and push production costs higher in everything from EVs to semiconductors”. Ultima Markets analysts also warn the move could have widespread ripple effects across manufacturing, construction, and electronics—industries highly reliant on copper, putting more pressure on inflation, especially in the United States.

Major importers including Germany, South Korea, and Japan are reportedly drafting a joint response at the G20 Finance Ministers meeting next week, raising the risk of retaliatory tariffs and further global fragmentation. Meanwhile, BRICS leaders at the Rio Summit issued a joint statement condemning the tariff threats as “unilateral and disruptive,” urging the WTO to intervene if talks break down.

• Copper-C, Daily Chart

Image Source: Copper-C, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Technical View: Copper on Breakout & What’s Next?​

Copper continues its strong breakout momentum, having decisively cleared above the $5.20 resistance zone. The Fibonacci extension projects potential upside toward $6.13, signaling further room for gains if bullish momentum holds. However, with current price action approaching overbought territory, traders should be cautious of potential short-term profit-taking or exaggerated market reactions. On the downside, key support now lies between $5.32 and $5.20—the prior breakout zone—which may serve as a base if any corrective pullbacks occur.

Markets will be closely watching the following key developments: any formal tariff announcements from the U.S. Trade Representative ; coordinated trade responses from BRICS nations ; and U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for release this Friday, particularly as copper-related price pressures may begin filtering into broader inflation components. While the direct impact of copper tariffs is unlikely to be reflected in the upcoming June CPI report, any signs of rising inflation could still rattle market confidence. Such developments may prompt both traders and policymakers to brace for heightened volatility, potentially spilling over into broader financial markets.

Risk Warning： Leveraged derivative products are complex and involve a high risk of losing your capital quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of loss.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy,

 

[Ultima markets]

Bitcoin Breaks $116K All-Time High as US Policy Signals Boost Crypto Market Rally​

Bitcoin surged to a fresh all-time high above $116,000 on Friday, with Ethereum climbing past $2,900 , as global risk sentiment improved and institutional inflows accelerated. The rally marks a renewed wave of optimism across the crypto space, driven by supportive U.S. policy signals, stronger tech sentiment, and an expanding pool of corporate adopters.

Strategic Support from US Policy Boosts Sentiment​

One of the key catalysts behind the crypto rally has been the Trump administration’s overt endorsement of digital assets. In recent weeks, the White House has unveiled plans to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, a move intended to enhance long-term national competitiveness in decentralized finance. With the policy, Bitcoin reserves held by public companies have surged, with Q2 2025 corporate holdings doubling year-over-year to around 847,000 BTC, according to Bitwise Q2 2025 report.

• Corporate Bitcoin Adoption in Q2 2025

Image Source: Source: Bitwise

Furthermore, with the optimism around tech stocks, hopes for upcoming Fed rate cuts and a weaker U.S Dollar, risk appetite has lifted demand for crypto as an alternative store of value, further driving the cryptocurrency market higher. The total crypto market capitalization hovers around $3.45 trillion, with 97 of the top 100 coins trading higher today.

What’s Next for the Crypto Market?​

The U.S. Senate is preparing to debate a new wave of digital asset legislation that could significantly impact the regulatory landscape. Key topics include clearer guidelines for crypto taxation, custody rules, and the structure of spot Bitcoin ETFs—potentially unlocking further institutional participation.

Bitcoin’s price action also remains closely correlated with major U.S. equity indices, with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.87. This growing alignment underscores the asset’s increasing integration into traditional financial markets, suggesting that macroeconomic drivers—such as interest rate expectations and tech sector sentiment—will continue to influence crypto performance in the near term.

Technical Outlook for Bitcoin & Ethereum​

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has decisively broken above its previous all-time high of $112,000, reinforcing bullish momentum.

• BTCUSD, Daily Chart Analysis

Image Source: Source: Ultima Market MT5

Shawn Lee, Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, stated: “The breakout paves the way for further upside toward the $125,000 psychological level, with $130,000—the next major Fibonacci extension—also in focus.”

• ETHUSD, Daily Chart Analysis

Image Source: Source: Ultima Market MT5

Ethereum is also showing strong upward momentum, trading above $2,800—its key resistance level in the past. A sustained break above this range could open the path toward the upside in near-term. Both assets remain technically supported amid growing institutional demand and risk-on sentiment.

Risk Warning： Leveraged derivative products are complex and involve a high risk of losing your capital quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of loss.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Markets on Edge as Trump Announces Broad Tariffs on Key Trade Partners: Gold Rallies, Inflation & Supply Chains at Risk​

U.S. President Trump escalated the global trade tension this week with sweeping tariff announcements targeting its major trade partners. The move has rattled financial markets, reinforced safe-haven demand and raised concerns over global inflation and supply chain stability.

Broad Tariff Measures Announced, Wide-Ranging Impact​

On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing new 30% tariffs on most imports from the European Union and Mexico, meanwhile, Canada also slapped with a 35% tariffs, effective August 1. The surprise move followed the collapse of last-minute trade negotiations and marks a sharp departure from earlier signs of compromise.

Simultaneously, Trump confirmed a 50% tariff on all imports from Brazil, citing “persistent currency manipulation and unfair commodity dumping.” The U.S. will also begin enforcing a 50% tariff on copper imports as announced earlier last week—a significant escalation that could affect global manufacturing costs and inflation expectations.

Trump stated from the White House: “We will not stand by while foreign powers undermine American workers and industries.” In addition, the Trump administration is also warning multiple trade partners—including Japan and South Korea—with a potential of 15-20% blanket tariffs.

Market Reaction: Risk-Off Mood May Resurface, Gold Rallies​

Global markets reacted sharply to the announcement on Monday’s opening. U.S. stock futures dropped early Monday, while European and Asian equities opened lower across the board. Meanwhile Gold, rallied to a three-week high near $3,370 on opening, reflecting renewed risk aversion sentiment could bolster the safe-haven asset.

• XAUUSD, 2-H Chart Analysis

Image Source: XAUUSD, 2-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Ultima Market Technical Analyst stated: “Gold bullish momentum could test on the $3,340 - $3,360 key levels, a sustained hold above these levels could signal a fresh upside extension.” The risk-off tone may deepen if further retaliation or countermeasures are announced by U.S. trade partners later this week. Investors are also closely monitoring inflation data and central bank responses, which may amplify volatility across global markets.

What to Watch Next​

Markets are now bracing for further escalation ahead of the August 1 implementation date, with the following developments in focus:

• U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) formal notices to affected countries and further tariff notice from Trump administration on other major trade partners like Japan and South Korea.
• Potential EU and key trade partners retaliation or diplomacy talks, particularly from Brazil and Canada.
• U.S. Consumer Price Index, where tariff could amplify inflation concerns.

With new tariffs now targeting the EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and others, the trade conflict has significantly widened. However, Trump’s strategy appears to follow an “escalate-to-negotiate” approach—using aggressive tariff threats to force trade concessions. For now, markets are expected to remain cautious amid growing concerns over broader economic spillovers. Rising consumer costs, disrupted supply chains, and inflationary pressure—particularly in sectors like electronics and auto manufacturing, which are sensitive to copper tariffs—may weigh on global sentiment in the near term.

Risk Warning： Leveraged derivative products are complex and involve a high risk of losing your capital quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of loss.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.