Daily Market Wrap – July 9, 2026: US Strikes Iran, Oil Surges 7%, Gold Under Pressure

[RichieVo]

1. Geopolitics – US Strikes Iran, Escalation Intensifies​

The US launched airstrikes on Iran in response to recent tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The US also revoked waivers allowing Iran to sell crude oil. In retaliation, Iran struck 85 US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Key Developments:

• US airstrikes on Iran
• Iran attacked 85 US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait
• US revoked Iran's oil export waivers
• Trump: "The ceasefire is over"

Outlook: Escalation risks remain high. Any further military action could push oil prices significantly higher.

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2. Oil – Surges 7% on Supply Fears​

WTI crude is trading at $74.38/bbl, up 7%, as the US-Iran conflict threatens global energy supplies. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, and Iran's oil exports are blocked.
Key Levels:

• Support: $73.04 (June 24 high) – $71.60 (Wednesday low)
• Resistance: $75.73 (Wednesday peak) – $76.65 (25-day MA)

Outlook: Bullish momentum is strong. A break above $75.73 targets $76.65-$80.00. Failure to hold $73.04 could trigger a pullback.

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3. Gold – Under Pressure Despite Safe-Haven Demand​

Gold is trading at $4,072/oz, under pressure despite rising geopolitical risks. Why? Higher oil prices → higher inflation → higher bond yields → higher opportunity cost for gold.
Key Levels:

• Support: $4,050 – $4,032 (recent low)
• Resistance: $4,142 (BB mid) – $4,200 – $4,272 (34-day MA)

Outlook: Gold needs to break above $4,142-$4,200 to resume the uptrend. Failure could see a drop to $4,050-$4,032.

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4. DXY – Supported by Safe-Haven Flows​

The US Dollar Index is trading at ~101.15, supported by safe-haven demand as tensions escalate. Fed rate hike probability for September rose to 50%.
Key Levels:

• Support: 100.62 (25-day MA) – 100.00 (psychological)
• Resistance: 101.80 (June 24 high) – 102.00

Outlook: DXY is likely to remain supported while geopolitical risks persist. FOMC Minutes could provide additional direction.

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5. Equities – ASX 200 Recovers, Shanghai Breaks Below 4,000​

ASX 200: Closed at 8,785 (-0.2%), recovering from an early low of 8,680. Energy (+3.26%) and Materials led gains, while Tech (-1.9%) lagged.
Shanghai Composite: Closed at 3,971 (-0.49%), breaking below the 4,000 psychological level for the first time since June 23. Energy and oil stocks outperformed, while lithium batteries and robotics stocks tumbled.
Outlook: ASX support at 8,680-8,700, resistance at 8,820-8,850. Shanghai is bearish below 4,000 – support at 3,900.

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Key Takeaways​

• Oil ($74.38): Bullish above $73.04. Target: $75.73-$76.65. Stop below $71.60.
• Gold ($4,072): Neutral-bearish below $4,142. Break above targets $4,200. Stop below $4,050.
• DXY (101.15): Bullish while geopolitical risks persist. Resistance at $101.80.
• ASX 200 (8,785): Neutral. Support 8,680, resistance 8,850.
• Shanghai (3,971): Bearish below 4,000. Support 3,900.