Daily Market Wrap – July 7, 2026: DXY Recovers, Gold Holds $4,160, Oil Awaits US-Iran Talks

[RichieVo]

1. DXY – Recovering After Weekly Drop​

The US Dollar Index rebounded to ~101.00 after last week's decline. The recovery is driven by short-covering and positioning ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes.
Key Drivers:

• Fed rate hike expectations for September dropped from 67% to 50% after weak NFP
• Market now awaits Fed minutes for policy clues
• Geopolitical tensions (Hormuz) support safe-haven dollar

Key Levels:

• Support: 100.49 (25-day MA) – 100.00 (psychological)
• Resistance: 101.59 (last week's high) – 102.00

Outlook: Range-bound between 100.50 and 101.50. Breakout requires catalyst from FOMC minutes or inflation data.

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2. Gold – Holding Above $4,100​

Gold is trading at **$4,160/oz**, maintaining its bullish momentum after last week's V-shaped recovery from $3,941. The weak NFP data and reduced Fed hike expectations remain the key supports.
Key Drivers:

• US June NFP: only 57,000 jobs added (lowest in 4 months)
• Fed September hike probability dropped to 50%
• Central banks net bought 41 tons of gold in May (WGC data)
• Geopolitical uncertainty (US-Iran) supports safe-haven demand

Key Levels:

• Support: $4,120 (core rebound support) – $4,100
• Resistance: $4,200 (key psychological) – $4,251 (30-day MA) – $4,300

Outlook: Bullish above $4,120. A break above $4,200 could target $4,251–$4,300. Failure to hold $4,120 could trigger a pullback.

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3. WTI Crude – Awaiting US-Iran Talks​

WTI crude is trading around $68.60/bbl, consolidating ahead of the next round of US-Iran negotiations scheduled for July 11 in Pakistan.
Key Drivers:

• Supply pressures: US production at record 13.93M bpd; Iran shipped 40M barrels
• Geopolitical uncertainty: Iran plans to charge new service fees for Hormuz shipping
• Upcoming catalyst: US-Iran talks on July 11 – outcome will drive direction

Key Levels:

• Support: $67.05 (last week's low) – $66.80
• Resistance: $70.00 (psychological) – $71.38 (14-day MA)

Outlook: Bearish bias remains. A break below $67.05 targets $64.00. A successful Iran deal could add 500K-1M bpd supply. Failure in talks could spike prices.

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4. Equities – ASX 200 Pulls Back, JP225 Hovers Near 70,000​

ASX 200: Fell 0.2% to 8,831, pulling back from Friday's rally. The index is trapped between 8,800 and 8,900. Support at 8,800, resistance at 8,900. The RSI at 57 suggests room for upside before overbought. Watch China CPI/PPI data this week.
JP225: Flat at 69,737 (-0.01%), hovering near the 70,000 level. Tech stocks (Kioxia -2.1%, Taiyo Yuden -10.6%) weighed on the index, while heavy machinery (Mitsubishi Heavy +8.4%) outperformed. Support at 68,600, resistance at 70,000–70,400.
Outlook: ASX 200 needs to break 8,900 to confirm upside. JP225 needs to hold above 68,600 to maintain the medium-term uptrend.

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5. Geopolitics – Waiting for the Next Signal​

The US-Iran situation remains the key wildcard:

• Next round of talks scheduled for July 11 in Pakistan
• Iran plans to charge fees for Hormuz shipping (US rejects the proposal)
• Iran's funeral events continue this week, keeping markets cautious

Any breakthrough could send oil prices sharply lower. Any escalation could trigger a spike in gold and oil.

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Key Takeaways​

• **Gold ($4,160):** Bullish above $4,120. Target: $4,200–$4,251. Stop below $4,100.
• **Oil ($68.60):** Bearish bias. Resistance at $70.00. Support at $67.05.
• DXY (101.00): Neutral. Range: 100.50–101.50. FOMC Minutes key.
• ASX 200 (8,831): Neutral. Range: 8,800–8,900.
• JP225 (69,737): Neutral. Support 68,600, resistance 70,000.