Daily Market Wrap – July 15, 2026: Oil Surges 9% on Hormuz Crisis, Gold Breaks Below $4,000, DXY Drops on Soft CPI

[RichieVo]

1. Geopolitics – US Blocks Hormuz, Oil Surges​

President Trump announced the US will reinstate a naval blockade on Iran and impose a 20% fee on all cargo through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by attacking two UAE oil tankers and threatening to close the strait. The escalation pushed WTI crude up 9% to near $80/bbl.
Key Developments:

• US reinstates blockade on Iranian shipping
• 20% tariff on Hormuz cargo
• Iran attacks UAE oil tankers
• Brent hits $83.16/bbl

Outlook: Oil remains bullish above $75.73. Further escalation targets $82-$85. De-escalation could bring oil back to $73-$75.

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2. Oil – Surges 9% on Supply Fears​

WTI crude is trading at $79.25/bbl, up 9% on escalating tensions. The US blockade and Iran's retaliatory attacks have reignited supply concerns.
Key Levels:

• Support: $77.69 (today's low) – $73.58 (200-day MA)
• Resistance: $80.00 – $82.90 (45-day MA)

Outlook: Bullish above $77.69. Target $80-$82. A diplomatic breakthrough could trigger a sharp pullback to $73-$75.

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3. Gold – Plunges Below $4,000​

Gold is trading at **$3,965-4,045/oz**, breaking below the key psychological level of $4,000. The surge in oil prices has reignited inflation fears, pushing bond yields higher and raising the opportunity cost of holding gold. Fed rate hike expectations for September rose to 75%.
Key Levels:

• Support: $3,942 (June low) – $3,900
• Resistance: $4,108 (9-day MA) – $4,138 (25-day MA)

Outlook: Bearish below $4,000. Break below $3,942 targets $3,900. Recovery needs to break above $4,108-$4,138.

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4. DXY – Drops on Soft CPI​

The US Dollar Index fell to 100.70 after US CPI came in at 3.5% (vs 3.8% forecast), the lowest since 2020. This reduced expectations of a September rate hike from 71% to 58%. However, geopolitical risks continue to support safe-haven demand for the dollar.
Key Levels:

• Support: 100.60 – 100.00
• Resistance: 101.80 – 102.00

Outlook: DXY remains supported by safe-haven flows. Range: 100.50-101.50.

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5. Equities – ASX 200 Flat, Hang Seng Rebounds​

ASX 200: Closed at 8,808 (+0.03%), near flat. Energy (+1.98%) and utilities (+1.37%) led gains, while REITs (-1.62%) and financials (-0.54%) lagged. Markets are awaiting China's Q2 GDP data today. Support at 8,770, resistance at 8,830.
Hang Seng: Rose 0.52% to 24,341, forming a bullish hammer with a long lower shadow. Support at 23,900, resistance at 24,500.
Outlook: ASX 200 remains range-bound. Hang Seng is bullish above 24,000, targeting 24,500.

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Key Takeaways​

• **Oil ($79.25):** Bullish above $77.69. Target $80-$82. Stop below $77.69.
• **Gold ($3,965-4,045):** Bearish below $4,000. Support at $3,942-$3,900. Resistance at $4,108-$4,138.
• DXY (100.70): Neutral. Range: 100.50-101.50.
• ASX 200 (8,808): Neutral. Range: 8,770-8,830.
• Hang Seng (24,341): Bullish above 24,000. Target 24,500. Support 23,900.