Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on April 27, 2016
On Tuesday, the Commerce Department announced that orders for durable goods in the US, which declined 3% in February, climbed up 0.8% last month. The reading did not meet economists’ expectation of a 1.9% uptick. Meanwhile, core durable goods orders (excluding transportation equipment) witnessed a fall of 0.2% in March compared to an expectation of a 0.5% increase.
According to Markit, Flash Services PMI released yesterday indicates that the US services sector is now rebounding moderately, signaling a gradual recovery in business activity. The index inched up to 52.1 this month, compared with the level of 51.3 in March.
The European Central Bank today reported that the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3(measure of money supply) registered at 5% last month. This is a little higher than the previous reading of 4.9%. Meanwhile, the growth rate of the narrower aggregate measure – M1, dropped to 10.1% in March(year on year basis), in comparison with a reading of 10.2% in February.
The Office for National Statistics today published the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter in 2016. GDP for the last quarter was up by 0.4%. However, it was lower than the growth rate of 0.6% in the quarter before. On an annualized basis, the UK GDP edged up 2.1%.
Today, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Federal Reserve Bank (FED) will end their two-day meeting on monetary policy. The US interest rate is supposed to stay unchanged at 0.25% while further monetary easing is expected to be deployed by the BOJ.
In the Asian trading session on Wednesday, oil prices marked their highest level since the beginning of this year thanks to a weakened dollar and a decline in US oil supply. WTI climbed up to $45.18 per barrel, 0.09% higher than the previous close. The commodity market is extending the current uptrend. Gold also rose to $1244.61/oz. compared with the last settlement of $1231.26/oz.

Technicals
GBPUSD

Sterling is on track to move higher against the US dollar with the support of the moving average below. The pair GBPUSD is now moving sideways inside overbought territory. The RSI is hovering around 70. The pair is anticipated to move within the range of 1.45400 and 1.46380 for the rest of the day before witnessing a strong drop.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.45882 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.46380 valid until April 29, 2016

USDJPY

USDJPY is moving sideways around the the 61.8% Fibonacci level(111.453). RSI is now at 60.44 and heading into overbought territory. The moving average is begins to cross under the price movement, suggesting that the buying power is strong. The pair is expected to hit the resistance level at around 111.868 before reversing.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 111.230 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 111.868 valid until April 29, 2016

EURAUD

The Euro has gained significantly against the Australian dollar to as high as 1.48488. The pair EURAUD is now in the overbought territory with RSI staying above level 75. The bullish power shows no sign of abating as the RSI is still pointing upwards. The price is expected to reverse after retesting the resistance level at 1.49244.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.48488 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.49244 valid until April 29, 2016

SILVER

Silver is on track to rise as high as 17.297 with the support of the EMA 10 below. ADX is now above level 30, combining with DI+ (red line) crossing DI- (green line) and heading up, signaling that the bullish trend is very strong. With RSI heading into the overbought zone, the commodity is expected to test the resistance level at 17.670, formed on April 21.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 17.288 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 17.670 valid until April 29, 2016

DAX

Having dropped from the resistance area at around 10519.5, DAX has moved sideways around the zone of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement while the RSI is hovering around level 50. The index is likely to retest the resistance of 10519.6 one more time before pulling back, thus forming a double-top pattern.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 10312.0 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 10519.6 valid until April 29, 2016

COPPER

Copper retreated from the resistance level at 2.2985 and now is trading at 2.2255, hovering around the 61.8% Fibonacci area. RSI is below level 50 and heading down, signaling that the selling power is becoming stronger. With the EMA moving above, the commodity is expected to hit the zone of 50% Fibonacci (around 2.1860) before bouncing back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2.1860 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.2255 valid until April 29, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Sterling Dips As Sluggish Economic Data Weighs

Oil prices surged strongly today, hitting the highest level this year due to the weak dollar and declining US production. Brent crude futures have reached their highest levels since November, at $46.77 per barrel, up nearly 20% in April. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures inched up 89 cents to as high as $49.90 per barrel.
The up-move in oil prices has had a positive impact on the Canadian dollar, taking the Loonie higher against the US dollar. The expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike this year have reached 24% from near zero after the retail sales data was reported on Friday, according to overnight index swaps (OIS). The Canadian dollar has seen little reaction to comments from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz that it would take another serious economic shock for the BOC to consider cutting rates again.
In Britain, the economy has showed sluggishness this year on a slowing global economy and uncertainty regarding continued membership of the EU. The economy has been depending mainly on the services sector to drive growth. In data released earlier, the nation’s gross domestic product rose 0.4% in the first quarter of the year, down 0.6% compared with the data released in December 2015(for the fourth quarter of 2015), according to the Office for National Statistics.
On Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development has warned that Britain could face a serious current account deficit if it votes to leave the EU, causing the sterling to slip harder after the statement.
GBPCAD

GBPCAD extended its recovery to as high as 1.83559 after falling continuously from the resistance area at 2.09484, the highest level of the year. RSI has just escaped from the oversold zone, hovering at around 44 and pointing downwards, suggesting that the bear market is still strong. The pair is expected to hit the resistance at 1.84897 before dropping back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.83730 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.84897 valid until April 29, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on April 28, 2014

Earlier Today, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) disappointed investors by holding steady on its monetary policy. The Yen witnessed an unexpected rise against U.S dollar and euro. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks slid after the BOJ announcement with the Nikkei down 3.5% in the afternoon trade.
The BOJ decided to retain its pledge to increase the money supply at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen through the asset purchase program. The bank also kept unchanged the 0.1% negative interest rate applied to some excess reverses of financial institutions, held at The BOJ.
Gold climbed to a one-week high on Thursday due to the slump of the US dollar against the Yen after the results of The BOJ meeting.
At the meeting on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left the interest rate unchanged as expected. Also, the Fed indicated little sign to hurriedly tighten the monetary policy due to an ongoing economic slowdown.
US equities immediately went up after the announcement, while the greenback showed little change against a basket of currencies.
Today, crude oil futures retreated from the highest level of 2016 as investors locked in profits from the surge in April. However, the fall in US domestic production, combined with the weaker dollar may push prices higher soon. Brent crude futures lost 26 cents from their last settlement to around $46.92 per barrel early on Thursday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures witnessed 26 cents drop at $45.07 per barrel.
European stocks were opening a little lower today as commodity prices became weaker and some Asian market dropped after the BOJ’s decision to hold off on expanding its monetary stimulus package.

Technicals
EURGBP

EURGBP is bouncing back from the support of 0.77339 formed two days ago. The stochastics chart shows the pair is likely to escape overbought territory as the %K line (red line) has already reversed and crossed the $D line from above. A bearish divergence with the lower highs in price and higher highs in the indicator indicates underlying weakness. There is a possibility for the pair to retest and break the support at 0.77339.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.77546 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.77712 valid until April 29, 2016

USDCHF

USDCHF is on track to keep falling, as RSI (14) has reached 37.4660, indicating that the bear is overwhelming. Meanwhile, the ADX (14) has surged to 32.9775. A selling position is encouraged because the downtrend is very strong. The parabolic SAR is starting to hang above the price chart, pressurizing the price further.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.96449 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.96611 valid until April 29, 2016

CADJPY

Due to a surging yen, the pair CADJPY declined sharply after reaching the resistance of 88.762. RSI’s reading is 36.9265, implying that the bear is dominant. The two moving averages just crossed, the short-term SMA 7 lies below the long term MA, creating downward pressure on the price. The next support to test is 85.411
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 85.231 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 85.968 valid until April 29, 2016

GOLD

The precious metal is enjoying the support from the parabolics below, climbing up from the support of 1227.07. DI+ is currently far higher than DI-, with readings of 25.0040 and 7.4971 for the former and the later, respectively. Buying position is suggested as ADX is at 34.0712, showing that the uptrend is very strong. The price is forecast to hit the resistance of 1270.31.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1258.36 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1261.30 valid until April 29, 2016

WTI

The two EMA lines are cutting the price chart, providing no clear direction. The current uptrend is weakening as ADX (14) heads down and currently is at 30.5824. The DI+ and DI- are getting closer and about to cross. A reversal into a downtrend is expected after the recent up move.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 44.06 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 44.86 valid until April 29, 2016

FTSE

FTSE opened today's trading session with a big gap and is still tumbling further. The parabolic SAR band was separated from the price and has crossed over to above the candle. RSI (14) is down to 37.1102, indicating a bearish market. The price is expected to reach the support of 6186.68.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 6193.47 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 6214.29 valid until April 29, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

RBNB Hints At Future Easing, Kiwi Gains

At the policy meeting yesterday, Fed decided to keep the interest rate unchanged, as well as showed little sign that it is in a hurry to tighten the monetary policy due to a sluggish economy. However, The Fed also noted that labor market conditions had improved further. After the announcement, US equities rose, while the dollar dropped against the New Zealand dollar. Investors expect that Fed may go for the first rate hike of 2016 in September.
On Thursday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the benchmark interest rate unchanged, at the current level of 2.25%, but hinted that further easing policy may be needed in case of weakening prices (falling inflation). The bank may move towards further monetary easing, in an attempt to maintain future inflation around the middle of the target range, according to Governor Graeme Wheeler.
The governor indicated that inflation is predicted to rise due to the effects of rising oil prices and the capacity pressure gradually being built. He also noted that the bank will closely focus on the country’s economic data. The New Zealand dollar gained as high as $0.6935 from around $0.6850 after the policy decision.
The market is waiting for weekly US jobless claims to be released today. The data is expected to rise around 4.45% compared with the week before. The number of unemployed people is an important signal for the economy as consumer spending is correlated with labor-market conditions. This is also a major consideration for monetary policy decisions.
NZDUSD
Fig. NZDUSD D1 Technical Chart
The New Zealand dollar is on track to gain further against the US dollar and is currently trading at 0.69524. The pair NZDUSD is hovering around the area of Fibonaci 50.0. RSI is staying at level 56 and heading up, suggesting that the buying power is strong. The price is expected to hit the Fibonacci 61.8 area (around 0.71219) before witnessing a reversal.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.69529 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.7129 valid until April 29, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on April 29, 2016
Data released from the Bureau of Economic Analysis report yesterday indicated that the US economy in Q1 2016, grew at the weakest pace since 2014 due to the global financial slowdown and a skid in oil prices. On a yearly basis, real gross domestic product (GDP), inched up by just 0.5%, compared to an increase of 1.4% in Q4 2015. The GDP growth rate reading was lower than the 0.7% forecast by economists.
The labor Department yesterday announced that the jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ended April 23 were up to 257,000 from 248,000 in the week before. The initial applications for unemployment benefits is hovering around the lowest levels since 1973. The four-week moving average currently is at 256,000. The positive numbers reflect strong growth in the labor market, despite a sluggish economy.
Speaking to a Spanish newspaper, an ECB official today stated that the central bank is now focusing on improving financial conditions instead of lowering rates. After its implementation two years ago, the negative rate still retains its effects on the market and its now time to focus on financial stability.
The yen is extending its rise since yesterday when the Bank of Japan decided not to ease monetary policy any further. In the Asian trading session on Friday, the safe-haven currency marked a new high for the last 18 months.
Despite a drop in US supply and a falling greenback, oil prices declined today due to a looming rise in Middle East output. Global benchmark Brent crude futures tumbled to $47.69 per barrel, 1% lower than the last settlement. Gold, climbed up 0.76% to $1275.54/oz from the previous close, and is expected to surge higher.
Technicals

USDJPY

The Japanese Yen gained strongly against the US dollar. The pair USDJPY is currently at 107.244. It is in the oversold zone with the moving averages currently above the prices. RSI is hovering around level 23 and heading up, preparing for a reversal soon. The price is expected to hit the resistance at 107.600, formed on April 7, 2016.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 107.243 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 107.600 valid until April 29, 2016

NZDUSD

NZDUSD has gained continuously to as high as 0.69764 with the support of the parabolic SAR below. RSI is above level 65 and seems headed into the overbought territory, suggesting a continuously strong bullish market. The pair is anticipated to continue the uptrend, retesting the resistance level at 0.70547, created on April 19.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.69895 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.70547 valid until April 29, 2016

EURCHF

EURCHF has been moving between 1.09609 and 1.10152 since April 21. The pair is currently hovering around the area of Fibonacci retracement 23.6. RSI is above 40 and heading down, signaling a bearish market to come. The price may move sideways around 1.09742 for the rest of the day before hitting the zone of Fibonacci 38.2 (around 1.09488)
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.09470 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.09700 valid until April 29, 2016

BRENT

Brent has reached the highest level of the year at around 47.77 with the support of the EMA below. The commodity is in the overbought territory with the RSI staying above level 70. However, the bullishness seems to be weakening as DI+ is heading down towards DI-. The price is expected to witness a reversal soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 47.79 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 48.17 valid until April 29, 2016

NASDAQ

NASDAQ has fallen continuously from the resistance level at 4852.70 formed on April 19. The index is currently trading at 4385.00 with RSI hovering around level 37 and heading up, suggesting that an uptrend is being formed. The price is likely to hit the resistance level at 4423.40 soon before dropping back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 4387.00 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 4423.40 valid until April 29, 2016

COPPER

Copper is on track to gain as high as 2.2518 from the support at around 2.1270. The commodity is hovering around Fibonacci retracement 23.6 levels, with RSI at 59 and pointing towards overbought territory. The price is anticipated to hit the resistance level at 2.3008 then drop back, forming a double-top pattern.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2.2598 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.3008 valid until April 29, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Swiss Franc Falls As Headline KOF Barometer Falls Unexpectedly

US economic growth hit the slowest pace in two years, as consumer spending and exports weakened. According to the data released by The Commerce Department on Thursday, the gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of 0.5%, the weakest pace since the first quarter of 2014. Almost all sectors of the US economy were weaker in the first quarter of the year, except housing.
The Fed has kept the benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged, as well as suggested that there was no hurry to initiate further rate hikes.
Institute for supply management’s report published today showed that April’s Chicago PMI declined 3.2 points to 50.4 from the level March, led by a drop in new orders and a strong fall in Order Backlogs.
On Friday, Brent crude reached the highest level of the year with support from a weak dollar and falling US production. Although the looming rise in the Middle East production has contributed to curb the gains, investors are still optimistic, which has helped oil futures rise nearly 80% from the January lows.
In particular, Brent futures climbed 21 cents compared with the last settlement at $48.35 per barrel. WTI crude reached $46.48 per barrel, up 0.45% from the last close.
According to data released on Friday, Switzerland’s KOF economic barometer fell unexpectedly last month. KOF Economic Research Agency stated that dropped to 102.7 compared with 102.8 the month before. The market had expected the reading to come in at 102.8 for March.

The US dollar has been continuously falling against the Swiss Franc as the moving average begins to move up above prices. RSI is heading into the oversold zone currently, combined with DI- crossing DI+ and going up, suggesting a bearish trend for the pair. The price is expected to hit the support level at 0.94987, the lowest level for the month.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.94901 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.96436 valid until April 29, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

U.S Non-Farm Payrolls Published In A Busy Week For PMI Data

At an important meeting on monetary policy held last week, the Bank of Japan surprised the markets as deciding that there will be no more stimulus for the economy in the near future. This announcement disappointed investors who placed a bet on a continual monetary easing deployed by the central bank. The deposit rate was left unchanged at -0.1% as the first settlement of a negative interest rate in January. After the decision, the safe-haven currency, Japanese yen, witnessed a sharp rally against its peers.
Ending the two-day meeting on April 27, the Federal Reserve Bank stated that the interest rate still stayed unchanged as economists’ forecast. The central bank now is holding a caution on the rate hike path due to weak data from economic growth, reflecting an oncoming slowdown. The dollar index DXY, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currency, edged down for the five consecutive days, closed this week at 93.02, only 40 points higher than the one-year low.
New Zealand’s official cash rate was also kept at 2.25%, the record low as published by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday. However, the Governor Graeme Wheeler commented that to ensure an inflation rate around the 2% target, further policy easing might be carried on. A rate cut in June is expected.
According to data released last Friday, the euro area annual inflation, which was zero in March, was estimated to stand at -0.2% in this month as the shadow of declines in energy market. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in March, reported by Eurostat on April 29, record the lowest level since August 2011 as down to 10.2% from 10.4% in the previous month. The reading indicated a slight recovery of labor market in Eurozone.
At Friday trading session, oil prices hit its record high since the beginning of 2016 thanks to a weakening dollar and the optimistic expectation of a supply-cut. The global benchmark Brent reached its best monthly gain in seven years, finishing April trading at $47.41 per barrel. Gold also surged up during the week ended April 29 with the last settlement of $1292.84/oz, up 4.86% from the open price early this week.
The upcoming week seems quite bustling as PMI readings of China and the UK will be released. China’s economy is expected to improve further, the Caixin manufacturing PMI is anticipated to increase to 49.9 in April, compared with the reading of 49.7 in the month before. Meanwhile, the UK PMI in this sector for April, which is out on Tuesday, is expected to rise to 51.3, 3 points higher the preceding reading.
The US non-farm payrolls report is scheduled to release on May 06 with the expectation of 200k employment change for the April period, in comparison with 215k in March. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5%. The US labor market now is in a stable situation.
Whereas, New Zealand employment change (q/q) for the first quarter in 2016 is expected to stand at 0.6%, compared with the reading of 0.9% in the previous period. Unemployment rate, also on the same basic, is supposed to be higher the last figure of 5.3%, up to 5.5% in the latest quarter.
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold a meeting on monetary policy, investors are expecting for an unchanged cash rate at 2%.
Canada’s trade balance will be published on May 04, with $1.2 billion of deficit in February, recovering a little from a shortfall of $1.9 billion in the first month of 2016.

 

[Option_Banque]

US Dollar Continues Dipping On Fed’s Reinforced Dovishness

EU factories performed better in April as output fell less than expected. The Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released today showed strong growth in Italy (53.9) and Spain (53.5). Activity in Germany has also shown signs of revival, but in France, the index dipped to the lowest level of the year at 48.0.
The PMI for the Euro zone increased to 51.7 from 51.6 in March, up slightly compared with the forecast of 51.5, indicating an industrial expansion.
The dollar continued its down-move as the Fed’s dovish tone on another rate hike this year has been reinforced, due to negative signals from the US economy in specific and the global economy in general. The US manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 51.6 in April, down from 51.8 in March. The index summarizes how purchasing managers’ rate business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
According to a survey on Sunday, the Chinese manufacturing sector has witnessed 2 consecutive months of expansion up to April. However, the rise is just marginal, making investors concerned about the sustainability of recent positive data from the world’s second largest economy. The uncertainty about global economic conditions has pushed investor to rush towards safe-haven assets like The Japanese Yen and Gold, pushing the greenback to hit the lowest level of the year against the Euro.
The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies, has dropped to its lowest level in 8 months on Monday.
EURUSD

Fig. EURUSD D1 Technical Chart
The Euro has hit the highest level of the year against the US dollar at 1.14938. The pair EURUSD will soon hit the overbought zone as seen with the RSI heading up to around level 67. The green arrow on the SAR has appeared since March 15, indicating a continuing uptrend in the price. The price is expected to continue going up further with a buying position encouraged.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.14938 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.17099 valid until May 6, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on May 02, 2016
Statistics Canada reported on Friday, that Canada's real gross domestic product for February slid 0.1%, paring the gains of the past four months. The output of goods producing industries, retreated 0.6% in February, compared to a rise of 0.9% in the first month of 2016. Meanwhile, in the services sector, the total output stayed unchanged as fall in wholesale trade was offset by the gains in retail trade.
The Commerce Department in the US, reported on April 29th, that the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy, met economists’ forecast of a 0.1% increase in February, in comparison with the rise of 0.2% in the preceding month.
In the euro area, the annual inflation rate for April is estimated to come in at -0.2%, according to Eurostat data released on the last working day of the month. The reading in March was at zero. Today, Markit announced that Eurozone’s final manufacturing PMI marked a three-month high, at 51.7 in March.
On Saturday, China’s manufacturing PMI was published, and came in at 50.1 last month, down a little from the reading of 50.2 in March. The non-manufacturing PMI also witnessed a decline of 3 points, from the last reading of 53.8 to 53.5 in April.
Oil opened the week with quite a gap, dropping to $46.97 per barrel from the last close of $47.41 per barrel. By contrast, gold is still extending its recent uptrend, and climbed to $1299.30/oz, compared with the last settlement of $1292.84 per ounce troy on friday.

Technicals
AUDUSD

Aussie is on its way to strengthening against the USD after the pair reached the support of 0.75859 last Friday. RSI (14) hovers around the average, indicating no clear direction. The price is supposed to move sideways for a while and then may move down as implied by the red SAR signal above the price chart.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.75836 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.76005 valid until May 6, 2016

EURJPY

After hitting the resistance of 126.453 on April 28, EURJPY dropped significantly. The DI- is far higher than DI+, suggesting a selling position. The downtrend is strong as indicated by ADX (14)’s reading of 35.8301. The pair is anticipated to continue its down move after a period of uncertain movement.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 121.483 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 121.980 valid until May 6, 2016

NZDCAD

The Stochastics chart shows that the pair has moved into overbought territory, and a reversal into a downtrend is expected soon. However, the ADX (14) registers at 34.2819 . The DI+ is higher than DI-, indicating a bullish market. The price is forecast to continue rising up and test the resistance of 0.88405 before pulling back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.87995 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.88405 valid until May 6, 2016

GOLD

GOLD is extending its move up since April 22 from the support of 1226.45. DI+ and DI-‘s readings are 38.2088 and 2.4497, suggesting a buying position. ADX (14) points up and stands at 72.5142, signaling a super power uptrend. The precious metal is predicted to continue climbing up.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1301.98 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1305.36 valid until May 6, 2016

WTI

The price retreated after testing the resistance of 47.13 on Friday. The two moving averages met the price chart and preparing to to move above the price. The commodity is now pulling back for some consolidation and may then return to the current uptrend as the bull is still overwhelming, with the RSI’s reading at 59.1078.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 46.35 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 48.12 valid until May 6, 2016

SP500

The index is rising up from the support of 2051.0, trimming recent losses. However, both the moving averages are currently above the price and casting a shadow on the price chart. The price is anticipated to return to its downtrend soon and break the current support. A smaller-than-average RSI indicates that the bear is dominant.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2058.0 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2064.1 valid until May 6, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on May 03, 2016
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported yesterday that the ISM Manufacturing PMI for April declined 1 percentage point from its previous reading, registering at 50.8. This sector’s growth continues to hover muddily around a very low rate due to weak commodities prices recently.
The greenback is extending its losses against its peers today, and the dollar index DXY is on track to fall further. Its currently trading at 91.92, the lowest level in the last 18 months.
In a speech made yesterday, ECB President Draghi stated that there was no alternative to low rates for now. The loose monetary policy is likely to be continued until market prospect get better.
In the UK, Markit Manufacturing PMI released today, fell to the lowest level since March 2013. The reading for April was at 49.2(seasonally-adjusted), in comparison with 50.7 in the preceding month. UK’s economy still seems to be seeing no clear and bright signals of a recovery.
The Reserve Bank of Australia on May 03 surprised the markets with decision to cut rates to a record low. The cash rate was lowered to 1.75% from the level of 2.00% and further easing seems to be on the cards to prevent deflation engulfing the economy.
In the Asian trading session today, oil prices increased by more than 1% from the last close but are now paring the gains due to a rise in Middle East supply threatening a global output excess. Brent crude futures were at $46.29 per barrel, half a dollar higher than the last settlement. Gold has continued surging, breaking the level of $1,300/oz in the last 15 months. The precious metal last traded at $1302.66/oz.

Technicals
EURGBP

After reaching the support of 0.77550, the pair EURGBP is moving in an uncertain fashion. The Stochastics chart shows that the pair is swinging around the overbought territory, preparing for a reversal as the %K line (red line) has already crossed the %D line (blue line). ADX (14) is heading down showing that the up-move is weakening. The buying position indicated by the SAR band may come to an end as the distance between DI- and DI+ is shrinking.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.78143 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.78301 valid until May 6, 2016

USDJPY

The greenback is on track to fall significantly against the yen as shown by the price chart. A selling position is suggested as the DI- is far higher than the DI+. Besides, ADX (14) is pointing up and stands at 52.0809, indicating that the downtrend is very strong. The pair is anticipated to plunge deeper into the red.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 105.191 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 105.615 valid until May 6, 2016

NZDUSD

The kiwi slid back a little against the buck and is now trimming its losses. RSI indicator is heading up, at the reading of 62.0091, showing an overwhelming bull. The price is expected to continue rising up and break the previous peak. A buying position is encouraged by the green SAR arrow under the price chart.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.70404 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.70684 valid until May 6, 2016

SILVER

SILVER has been in an uptrend for a long time. Up to now, the price has gained 2466 pips, equivalent to a 16% increase compared with the open price since the trend began in early April. This is the largest gain of the commodity in the last several months. The metal is expected to witness some correction from the current levels
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 17.195 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 17.384 valid until May 6, 2016

COPPER

The commodity has suddenly tumbled into the oversold territory after testing the support of 2.2985 on Friday. The stochastics chart shows that the %K line (blue line) has already reversed and crossed the %D line (red line). The price is forecast to return to the current uptrend after some consolidation.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2.2500 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.2670 valid until May 6, 2016

FTSE

The index is on its way down from the resistance of 6439.1 formed on April 21. The two SMA lines are currently meeting the price chart and tending to hang over the price. The index may decline continuously, led by the downward pressure from the two moving averages. The next support to test is 6146.0.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 6176.3 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option 6198.7 valid until May 6, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Aussie Slides After RBA’s Rate Cut Decision

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark rate to the record-low of 1.75%. This is the first time in this year the bank has eased the monetary policy as it tried to subdue the appreciation of the currency.
The Australian central bank announcement has caused the AUD to drop more than one US cent to as low as $0.7567 due to the falling attractiveness of the Australian dollar to investors. The speculation of a possible cut had appeared among investors last week after Australian inflation slowed more than expected in the first quarter of the year.
Further, four of Australia’s biggest banks – National Australia Bank, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac Banking Corp and Australia, and New Zealand Banking Group, stated on Tuesday that they would cut variable home loan rates by 25 basis points after the central bank’s decision to cut the benchmark rate.
In New Zealand, employment data is due to be released tomorrow. The number of employed people in the first quarter of 2016 is expected to rise by 0.6%, while in the fourth quarter of 2015, the employment change was at 0.9%. The percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment(in Q1 2016) is forecast to rise to 5.5%, up 0.2% compared to the previous quarter.
AUDNZD

Fig. AUDNZD D1 Technical Chart
AUDNZD had been moving sideways around the resistance level at 1.13283 before witnessing a strong drop to as low as 1.08037. As indicated by the red SAR arrow, the price is likely to continue going down further. RSI is heading into the oversold zone, suggesting that the bear is overwhelming. The price is expected to hit the support level at 1.06639, the lowest level since the middle of February.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.06639 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.08037 valid until May 6, 2016.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on May 4, 2016
On Wednesday, oil prices stabilized after falling for 2 consecutive days. The plunge in crude prices was due to concerns of sluggish economic growth and rising Middle East supply. International Brent crude futures were down 2 cents at $44.95 per barrel compared with the last settlement, while US West Texas Intermediate witnessed a 7 cent rise to $43.72 per barrel.
In Japan, the markets are closed on Wednesday and Thursday for public holidays, creating thin trading conditions for the Japanese Yen. The Yen slid from the highest level in 18 months against the US dollar. Consequently, the greenback inched up 0.6% to as high as 107.22 JPY, recovering from its weakest level since October 2014.
The dollar index, measuring the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies gained 0.2% to as high as 93.168 after hitting the lowest level since January at 91.919 on Tuesday.
Also on Tuesday, the Australian dollar dropped significantly after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to cut interest rates for the first time in this year. However, today the currency has retreated slightly from the lowest level in 7 weeks of $0.7467 to around $0.7504, up 0.3%.
Chinese stocks slipped on Wednesday morning after signs of subdued manufacturing activity. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.2 percent, to 2,986.19 points by the afternoon. China's blue-chip CSI300 index fell 0.3 percent, to 3,204.98 points. The slowdown in the world second largest economy has helped reinforce the Fed’s dovishness towards another rate hike in the year, due to global headwinds.

Technicals
EURUSD

The USD is on course to recover against the single currency, leading the pair EURUSD to fall from the resistance of 1.16155. The pair is plunging into the oversold territory and the USD may surge up as the %K line is about to cross the %D line. The level 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement will be tested soon and the price is supposed to return to uptrend after that.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.14974 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.15175 valid until May 6, 2016

GBPJPY

GBPJPY has been moving sideways recently, with current support and resistance at 154.424 and 156.643 respectively. After hovering around the oversold level for a period of time, the RSI (14) is now at 40.1037, indicating that the market is still in favor of the bear. The pair is anticipated to pull back soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 154.681 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 155.254 valid until May 6, 2016

AUDUSD

The Stochastics chart shows that the pair is bouncing back from oversold territory, and is about to move out of this zone. However, the price is moving muddily due to the uncertainty of the greenback. AUDUSD is expected to head up to the resistance of 0.75279 before edging down. A selling position is encouraged by the red SAR arrow.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.74730 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.74880 valid until May 6, 2016

BRENT

The readings of DI- and DI+ are 22.9453 and 8.1832, suggesting a selling position. The downward pressure is quite strong as ADX (14) stands at 25.6819. The price is forecast to retest the support at 44.12 as the down trend is quite stable. In addition, the red SAR band has just been formed above the price. Every indicator is supporting a bearish tone.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 44.26 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 44.96 valid until May 6, 2016

DAX

A red SAR arrow has appeared above the price chart, suggesting a selling position. The signal was initiated on Friday and has gained 2891 points up to now. The bear is still dominant as ADX (14) points up, registering at 35.7693 and the DI- is far higher than the DI+. The index is expected to continue falling in the near future.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 9887.2 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 9925.8 valid until May 6, 2016

NASDAQ

The index has been falling for a long time with a red SAR arrow hanging above. The trend signal indicator shows that the price has lost 1858 pips (equivalent to 4.1%) from the beginning of the downtrend. This is the largest move in several recent months. Hence, the price is expected to reverse to uptrend after sliding a little as the bear is still strong (RSI at 40.4163).
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 4295.65 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 4309.24 valid until May 6, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Oil surges as canadian wildfire reduces supply

On Wednesday, oil prices went up after 2 consecutive days of falling. Oil pared its losses thanks to an uncontrolled wildfire at Fort McMurray, the heart of Alberta’s oil sands region, which reduced the output there. The surge of oil today is anticipated to be temporary due to the worry about global oil oversupply, a stronger dollar and weakened equity markets.
The concerns over rising production from the biggest oil suppliers in the Middle East has made investors worry about record high crude stockpiles, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the last two days. In particular, Iraqi exports are expected to reach 3.4 million barrel per day in April, while production in Saudi Arabia could return to 10.5 million barrels per day. Exports from Iran have nearly reached 2 million barrels per day, which are nearly double the amount at the beginning of the year.
According to Al Walker, chief executive of oil producer Anadarko Petroleum Corp, the company is getting ready for new drilling projects due to the increase in oil prices since February. The company believes that the outlook for commodity prices, especially oil, has improved. The worst of the oil downturn might be over.
The market is waiting for US crude oil inventories which are to be released today with concerns that the data will show that inventories hit a new record high. The inventories, measure the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms. Inventories in the week to April 29, are predicted to rise by 0.6 million compared to the previous week.
BRENT

Fig. BRENT D1 Technical Chart
Brent has just retreated from the resistance level at 48.24, the highest level of the year to around 45.14. Overall, the commodity is in an up-move as indicated by the green SAR arrow’s appearance. However, with the RSI pointing downwards, the price is likely to continue the downtrend in the short term, retesting the support level at 42.98 before bouncing back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 42.98 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 45.14 valid until May 6, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on May 05, 2016
In the US, ADP Inc. reported on May 04 that 156,00 jobs were created in April, far lower than the reading of 205,000 as forecast. The market is now turning its attention towards the Non-farm payrolls report this Friday. The Institute for Supply Management yesterday reported the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for April with a reading that beat economists expectations. The index continued growing for the 75th consecutive month, surging up to 55.7 from 54.5 in the previous month.
According to data from Statistics Canada, imports and exports in March tumbled 2.4% and 4.8% respectively, compared to February’s reading. As a result, Canada’s trade balance continued extending its deficit to a record low of $3.4 billion in March. The previous low was at $3.3 billion in July 2015.
In the EU, Markit yesterday reported that Eurozone’s economy was still in low gear at the start of the second quarter of this year. The final reading for Services PMI came in at 53.1 last month, 1 point lower than the March reading. British’s construction PMI registered at 52.00 in April, down from the reading of 54.2 in the month prior.
Australia’s economy is on its way to recovery as retail sales in March were reported rising by 0.4%, beating expectations of a 0.3% rise. Trade Deficit for March fell to 2.16 billion from 3.04 billion in February.
Today, oil prices are surging again, trimming recent losses after reports of a raging wildfire in the Canadian oil sands region. The global benchmark Brent jumped to $45.57 per barrel, up half a dollar from the last close. Gold prices were moving in stable fashion, around the last settled reading of $1279.40/ounce.


Technicals

AUDUSD

AUDUSD has extended the recovery from around 0.74390 to as high as 0.74907. As seen from the red SAR arrow, a bear market has been in the making since April 22. RSI is now at 38 and heading up, suggesting a slight up-move for the pair. The price is expected to retest the resistance level at 0.75444 before dropping down and continuing the overall downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 0.74907 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.75444 valid until May 6, 2016

EURJPY

EURJPY witnessed a significant drop from around 126.461 on April 28. At the moment, the pair is moving sideways between the range of 121.735 and 123.540 with RSI hovering at level 51. The price is anticipated to keep moving sideways for the next few days then may rise and test the area of the Fibonacci 50% before pulling back.
Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 123.064 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 124.098 valid until May 6, 2016

NZDCAD

The New Zealand dollar was seen rising for 2 consecutive days against its Canadian dollar counterpart. The uptrend has been confirmed since April 29 as shown by the green candle’s appearance. The pair NZDCAD is heading into the overbought zone with RSI at 64 and heading up. It is expected to hit the resistance level at 0.89044, formed on April 12 soon.
Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 0.88603 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.89044 valid until May 6, 2016

GOLD

Gold prices have surged strongly from $1227.31/ounce since April 4 to as high as $1303.70/ounce. The commodity is moving sideways around the Fibonacci 28.6% level, with RSI hovering around level 50 and heading down. The price is expected to continue the current movement for the rest of the day, then hit the Fibonacci 61.8% area before reversing.
Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 1256.49 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1278.91 valid until May 6, 2016

WTI

WTI has recently recovered from the support level at 43.38 to around 45.57. However, as seen in the red parabolics SAR band moving above the price movement, the commodity has been in a bearish market since May 3. With RSI heading up at 55, the price is likely to hit the resistance level at 47.11 before dropping down and continuing the downtrend.
Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 45.57 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 47.11 valid until May 6, 2016

SP500

SP500 suddenly gained strongly on May 5 despite the crossover of the short-term EMA below the price. The index is now trading at 2058.17, up 0.23% compared with yesterday highest level. RSI is hovering around level 44 and heading up, suggesting a bull market formation. The price is expected to retest the resistance level at 2078.31, created on April 4, 2016.
Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 2058.17 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2078.31 valid until May 6, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Sterling Continues To Tumble On Soft Data, Brexit Concerns

Today, the sterling has continued to fall as data from Britain’s construction sector has added to the subdued outlook for the economy just about 2 months before the June 23 Brexit referendum.
Jayne-Anne Gadhia, the first female CEO of a publicly listed British bank, has stated today that the best choice for the UK economy was for Britain to stay in Europe. Moreover, Thursday’s services sector PMT survey might put more downward pressure on the sterling, based on market expectations for a soft number.
In the US, the ADP National Employment Report, reported that the US private sector added 156,000 jobs from March to April, lower than the forecast reading of 205,000. The pace and size of job creation is an important indicator of US economic health as it accounts for a majority of US economic activity through consumer income and spending.
The ISM Non-manufacturing PMI was also released at 55.7, beating the market expectations for a reading of 54.9 and indicating an economic expansion. The index has been in an up-move for 75 consecutive months, reaching 55.7 from March’s 54.5.
US jobless claims to be released later today, are expected to reach 261,000, up 2.72% in comparison with 257,000 in March. The number of unemployed people is one of the leading indicators for the economy as consumer spending is highly related to labour market conditions. This is also a critical factor that has an effect on the country’s monetary policy.
The market is also awaiting the April non-farm payrolls data,that is to be released on Friday. The NFP measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. The “new jobs created” number is expected to be 203,000, down 5.91% compared with the month before.
GBPUSD

Fig. GBPUSD D1 Technical Chart
GBPUSD has been going down for 3 consecutive days, from the resistance level 1.47769. The pair is now trading around 1.44605. RSI is now heading downwards from the current level of 53, suggesting a strengthening bear market. It is likely that the price may hit the support level at 1.42293 before pulling back and continuing the overall up-move, as seen in the support from the green parabolic SAR band below.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.42293 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.44605 valid until April 29, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report On May 06, 2016
The number of people employed in the US is forecast to grow again in April by 202,000, according to consensus forecasts for the NFP. The jobs number rose by 215,000 in March. Improved labor market conditions have attracted more discouraged job seekers back into the workforce. As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 5%.
The strength of U.S labor market helps reinforce the healthy condition of the economy, which is a key concern for Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen, in deciding on the next policy move for central bank interest rates.
A strong payrolls data can induce the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than expected. The US dollar has been stabilizing against the Euro and Japanese yen ahead of the US non-farm payrolls data.
On Friday, oil prices slipped due to the surging dollar, which offset the supply disruption in Canada’s oil sand operations. Brent crude futures dropped 28 cents to $44.73 per barrel compared with the last settlement. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 28 cents, trading at $44.04.
European shares also opened lower with both Britain's FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX opening down 0.5%.
The Japanese yen had gained after the Bank of Japan’s announcement to stand pat on the monetary policy last week. However, the currency pared the rise after Japanese officials stated they could act to halt its appreciation when needed.
Gold prices were little changed at around $1280 per ounce after 4 days of losses due to the appreciation of the US dollar. Gold is sensitive to interest rates as rising rates lift the opportunity cost when holding non-yielding assets.

Technicals
EURGBP

After falling for a period of time and hitting level 38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement, the pair EURGBP is now ticking up gradually. RSI (14) hovers around the average, giving no clear clue on the price movement. The price is expected to move in a narrow range in the short-term and then make a sharp move up. A buying position is suggested by the green SAR arrow.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.78853 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.79184 valid until May 6, 2016

USDJPY

Currently, USDJPY has been moving sideways for a period of time around level 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement, climbing up from the support of 105.584 formed on Tuesday. As can be seen from the chart, the 38.2% Fibonacci level is quite a strong resistance as it has been a firm support before. The pair is anticipated to keep this stable trend until the US non-farm report is released.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 106.427 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option 106.838 valid until May 6, 2016

NZDUSD

A red SAR arrow has appeared above the price chart since May 04, suggesting a selling position.
From the initial moment of the signal, the Kiwi has fallen 499 points against the buck, equivalent to 0.7% in comparison with the open price on Wednesday. ADX (14) points up to 32.8320, indicating that the bear’s power is still very strong.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.68215 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.68342 valid until May 6, 2016

SILVER

After rallying to the resistance of 17.996 early this week, the commodity is slowly declining since the past couple of days. The bear is still quite strong as implied by a smaller-than-average RSI. The trend signal indicator encourages a selling position, with 128 points of gains up to now.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 17.061 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 17.229 valid until May 6, 2016

COPPER

COPPER is surging up from the support of 2.1400 after coming under downward pressure for several days. DI- is catching up with DI+ and the two lines are about to cross. ADX (14) has also fallen to a reading of 47.2791, indicating that the downtrend is getting weaker and the bull is coming. However, the two moving averages still hang over the price chart. Any confirmation for a long position should be waited until there are signs of crossing over, from the two moving averages.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2.1489 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.1547 valid until May 6, 2016

FTSE

The trend signal indicator on April 22 suggested a selling position, via a red SAR arrow above the price chart. Up to now, the downtrend has gained 2288 points, the largest move in the last six months. The index is forecast to test the support of 6044.9 and then could reverse into an uptrend.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 6044.9 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 6078.3 valid until May 6, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

RBA Hints At Further Rate Cuts, Aussie Declines

The Australian dollar witnessed a strong drop after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Quarterly Statement on monetary policy, which hints at further rate cuts in the future.
In the quarterly report, the central bank said that it expected the underlying inflation to be 1 or 2 percent in 2016, which is 2-3 percent below the medium term target.
On Tuesday, the bank had cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 1.75%, following a surprisingly weak inflation rate for the first quarter. After that, the Australian dollar witnessed a drop to as low as 0.75432 against the US dollar. Many analysts expect that the RBA could lower the rate another 25 basis points to the all-time low of 1.5% at the August policy meeting.
On Friday, the US dollar went down against the basket of major currencies but is still on course towards weekly gains ahead of the non-farm payrolls report. The number of employed people in the US is expected to rise in April, suggesting a healthy labor market. However, due to better labor market conditions, the large number of returning job seekers are reinforcing the cautiousness of the Fed with regards to a rate hike this year.
Non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise by 202,000 in April after the 215,000 gain the month before, while the unemployment rate is expected to be 5.0%.
The dollar index, measuring the strength of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose about 2% from the lowest level since January at 91.919, registered earlier this week.
AUDUSD

Fig. AUDUSD D1 Technical Chart
The Australian dollar dropped significantly against its American counterpart today. A selling position is encouraged for the pair AUDUSD as seen in the red SAR arrow above the price movement. RSI seems to be hitting the oversold zone as it is pointing down wards from the current level of 35. The price is anticipated to test the support level at 0.72449, created on February 4, 2016.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.72449 valid until May 6, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.73714 valid until May 6, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on May 9, 2016
On Monday, oil prices inched up 2% in the early trading session, continuously receiving support from the wildfires that have reduced Canadian oil sands production by nearly a half since last week. WTI crude was trading at $45.71 per barrel in New York on Sunday night, up 2.3% from the last settlement. Brent crude futures reached $46.22 per barrel, up 1.91%.
On Friday, US non-farm payrolls data for April reported the fewest jobs added in seven months, causing the US dollar to fall initially. However, the currency quickly pared the losses when the market took a closer look at good numbers in annual wage growth, as well as remarks from Fed President William Dudley to New York Times on Friday that two rate hikes this year are still a reasonable possibility.
Chinese trade data for April, which was released on Sunday has raised investor doubts about a sustainable economic recovery. Both exports and imports fell more than expected. After the market’s 3% slump on Friday, China's blue-chip index dropped to as low as 3,076.76 points on Monday, while the Shanghai Composite Index reached 2,848.16 points, losing 2.2%.
In Japan, the rising dollar helped restrain the Yen’s recent appreciation, calming fears over exporters’ earnings. The greenback hit around 107.6 yen today, retreating from the lowest level in 18 months of 105.55 last week.
In early trading, European shares rose on Monday, led by 2.4% gains in German car maker Volkswagen.

Technicals
USDCHF

USDCHF pared its gains at around 0.97037 from 0.97361, the highest level of the month. With RSI at level 62 and pointing down, the pair has just escaped from overbought territory. The price seems to be moving sideways around the zone of Fibonacci 61.8% and may head to Fibonacci 50.0% before bouncing back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.96194 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.96958 valid until May 13, 2016

GBPJPY

GBPJPY has been moving sideways between the range of 153.537 and 156.683. The pair is still in a bear market as seen in the parabolics sar moving above the price movement, not to mention the RSI hovering around level 43 and heading down. The downtrend seems to be dominant, with selling positions encouraged.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 153.537 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 154.699 valid until May 13, 2016

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar has fallen continuously against its American counterpart since the red arrow appeared on April 22. Currently, AUDUSD is in oversold territory as RSI is hovering around level 26. The price is expected to go down further. The expected support level is 0.72879.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.72879 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.73429 valid until May 13, 2016

BRENT

Brent has been moving sideways between 44.20 and 48.40 from the beginning of the month. The commodity is in a bear market as seen in the movement of the red parabolics sar above. RSI is hovering above level 50 and heading down, indicating stronger selling power. The price is expected to hit the support level at 44.20, created on April 21.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 44.20 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 45.81 valid until May 13, 2016

DAX

DAX has retreated from around 9719.9, the lowest level since the beginning of the month, to as high as 9949.0. RSI is now at level 46 and pointing upwards, showing that a bull market may be in the making. Though the red parabolics sar are moving above the price chart, the pair is anticipated to retest the resistance at 10155.8, formed on March 23.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 9949.0 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 10155.8 valid until May 13, 2016

NASDAQ

Nasdaq has witnessed a consecutive drop from as high as 4851.24 after the appearance of the red arrow. With RSI lingering around level 49 and likely to be headed down, along with the red parabolics sar hanging above, the price is anticipated to retest the support level at 4268.90, the lowest level in 2 months.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 4268.90 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 4324.00 valid until May 13, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Japanese Yen Jolted By BOJ’s Warning

On Monday, the Japanese Yen hit a 10-day low against its American counterpart after Japan’s finance minister said that the Bank of Japan was likely to intervene in the open market when the Yen is volatile enough to hurt the country’s economy.
On Friday, US non-farm payrolls were released with 106,000 added jobs in April, the lowest level in seven months, losing nearly 30% from last month’s 208,000. After the announcement, the US dollar witnessed a strong drop against the basket of major currencies to its lowest level since the beginning of the year.
One positive point in the report was workers wages. The average hourly earnings rose 0.3% after a 0.2% rise the month before. Worker pay climbed 2.5 percent over the 12 months to April after a 2.3 percent gain a month earlier.
Further, New York Fed President William Dudley stated on Friday that two rate hikes this year are still a reasonable possibility. This has caused the greenback to pare its losses in today’s session. The rising dollar helped curb the current surge of the Yen, calming fear over exporters’ earnings.
The market is waiting for the speech of Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley tomorrow at a panel discussion in Zurich on more clues regarding future monetary policy.
US wholesale inventories that measure the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers, is to be released a little later. It is forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.5% decrease in February.
USDJPY

Fig. USDJPY D1 Technical Chart
After falling strongly to the year’s lowest level of 105.477 from around 123.452 since the red arrow appeared in Dec 2015, USDJPY recovered to as high as 108.298. RSI is about 44 and pointing upwards, forming a bullish posture. Despite the red parabolics sar movement above, the price is expected to test the resistance level at 108.298, formed on February 11.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 108.298 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 110.641 valid until May 13, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on May 10, 2016
Yesterday, Eurogroup held a meeting on financial issues with the ECB President and finance ministers from euro area member states in attendance. According to statements from the meeting, inflation rate in the Eurozone is likely to stand around the central bank’s target of 2% as the latest monetary easing policies begin to stimulate the region’s economy.
On Monday, the Bank of England hinted that they are considering re-introducing stimulus measures in the economy this week as markets’ are jittery before the referendum on June 23. On Thursday, BOE is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting on the benchmark interest rate.
The yen today created broad losses in the Asian trading session, after Japan’s finance minister warned of continuous monetary easing in the near future, aiming to talk the currency down. In contrast, the greenback is still flying high, as expectation of multiple rate hikes by the end of this year builds up. The dollar index extended to 94.20, strengthening against a basket of its peers.
Oil prices pared their losses in early morning trade due to the forecast for brimming inventories in the US for the week ending on May 06. The global benchmark, Brent, inched up to $43.93 per barrel, a little higher than the opening price. Gold is moving in an uncertain fashion, hovering around the last settlement of $1263.68/ounce.

Technicals

EURUSD

The Euro has been continuously falling against the US dollar from a high as $1.16159. The pair is currently at 1.13768, hovering around the area of Fibonacci 61.8. RSI is now at level 38 and seems headed down, indicating a stronger selling trend. The price is expected to move sideways around 1.13696 for 1-2 days then continue the fall.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.12174 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.13696 valid until May 13, 2016

USDJPY

Currently, USDJPY is in a bullish market with the support of the parabolics sar below. The green arrow’s appearance indicates a continuous up-move for the pair. With RSI staying at 67 and heading up, the price is about to enter the overbought territory, and expected to hit the resistance area at 109.152.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 108.705 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 109.152 valid until May 13, 2016

CADCHF

After witnessing a strong drop with the pressure of the parabolics sar above, CADCHF has been moving in sideways between the range of 0.74147 and 0.75441. RSI is at level 45 and heading up, signaling the formation of a bullish trend. The price is anticipated to retest the resistance level at 0.75441, created on April 20.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.74927 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.75441 valid until May 13, 2016

GOLD

After the significant surge to as high as 1303.22, gold has retreated and is now trading at 1264.14. The red arrow has appeared above the price movement, suggesting the formation of a bear market. With RSI hovering around level 37 and heading down, the commodity is anticipated to fall further for the rest of the day.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1242.35 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1264.14 valid until May 13, 2016

WTI

WTI has been moving between 42.55 and 47.10 for nearly a month. The commodity is now trading at 43.81 with the support of the parabolics sar below. RSI’s reading is 41 and pointing up, suggesting stronger buying power. The price is forecast to rise and hit the resistance at 47.10, the highest level of the month.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 43.81 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 47.10 valid until May 13, 2016

DAX

DAX has retreated from the psychological resistance level at 10099.86, formed on March 21, to around 9983.41. The red parabolic band is moving above the price chart, indicating a bearish trend for the index. With the RSI hovering around 50, the price is expected to move sideways around the zone of resistance at 10099.86 for 1-2 days then go down and test the support at 9893.61, formed on April 18.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 9893.61 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 9983.41 valid until May 13, 2016