Daily News Analysis By Ultima Markets

[Ultima markets]

Japan's JGB Yields Soar to Multi-Year Highs as Election Uncertainty Fuels Fiscal Concerns​

Yields on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) surged on Monday, reaching multi-year highs, as investors brace for heightened fiscal risk ahead of Japan’s Upper House election on July 20. The sharp move in long-dated bonds highlights growing market concerns over potential policy shifts and increased government borrowing in the wake of a potentially changed political landscape.

The benchmark 10-year JGB yield climbed to 1.59%, marking its highest level since 2008, while yields on 30-year and 40-year bonds again soared past 3.19% and 3.5%, respectively—levels not seen since before the global financial crisis.

• JGB 10, 30 & 40-Years Yields

Image Source: Source: TradingView

The spike in yields comes amid speculation that the outcome of the upcoming election could lead to expanded fiscal stimulus, including consumption tax cuts and larger government spending, especially if the opposition gains ground. Such moves would further inflate Japan’s already heavy public debt burden, which stands at over 250% of GDP.

BoJ Faces New Policy Dilemma​

The sharp rise in yields places the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in a difficult position. While the central bank has gradually tapered bond purchases and signaled the start of policy normalization, the surge in yields could delay further tightening if it undermines financial stability or threatens the recovery. BoJ officials have downplayed the immediate need for intervention but are reportedly monitoring the long end of the curve closely. Recent adjustments in the bank’s bond buying operations, particularly its reduced purchases of 20- to 40-year bonds, have added to market sensitivity.

Market Implications: Yen Remains Weakened​

The rising yield underscores investors' nervousness, especially as foreign funds become more cautious on Japanese debt. Higher domestic yields could weigh on the Japanese equities market, while also being the major driver of recent Japanese Yen depreciation.

• USDJPY, Day-Chart Analysis

Image Source: Source: Ultima Market MT5

Despite a broadly weaker U.S. Dollar, the USDJPY extended its rally to a two-month high, nearing the key 148.00 resistance level as the Japanese Yen came under renewed selling pressure. Ultima Market Analyst Shawn said: “The combination of fiscal risk, political uncertainty, and reduced Bank of Japan support is a recipe for continued volatility in both Japanese Government Bonds and the Yen,”. He added that until the political dust settles, the Yen may remain vulnerable—particularly against other major currencies.

Risk Warning： Leveraged derivative products are complex and involve a high risk of losing your capital quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of loss.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

U.S. June Inflation Accelerates to 2.7% as Tariff Concerns Increase; Fed Rate Cut Expectations Reduce​

U.S. inflation picked up pace in June, with early signs that recently announced tariffs may be starting to seep into consumer prices—raising questions about the Federal Reserve’s policy path in the second half of the year.

U.S. June CPI Data & Emerging Tariff Impact​

The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month, marking the largest monthly increase since January and pushing the annual inflation rate to 2.7%. Core inflation increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year. Both figures were higher than May’s readings of 0.1% and 2.8% respectively. These latest figures may point to early signs of tariff-related price pressures, particularly in categories such as household appliances and imported electronics.

Shawn Lee, Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, stated: “While the June CPI data may not yet fully reflect the impact of the latest tariffs, inflation expectations are clearly starting to push back against the disinflationary trend we’ve seen in recent months,”.

Market Reaction: September Cuts Odds Reduced​

Financial markets responded with caution. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ticked higher to 4.49%, while the Dollar Index (DXY) saw a significant gain, regaining above the 98-mark. Meanwhile, gold prices slipped below $3,340 to a three-day low, largely driven by a dollar rebound.

Fed Fund Rate futures now suggest reduced odds of a September cut, with traders increasingly expecting the Fed to stay on hold through Q3. According to CME FedWatch, the probabilities of a rate unchanged have increased significantly to 45.8% compared to 28.7% a month ago.

• Target Rate Probabilities for September Fed Meeting

Image Source: Source: CME FedWatch

What’s Next?​

Attention now turns to the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and commentary from Fed officials later this week. With headline inflation creeping up and core prices remaining sticky, policymakers may find themselves navigating a narrow path between containing inflation and supporting growth.

Shawn Lee, Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, commented: “If producer prices stay firm and trade tensions persist, the Fed may have to reassess its easing outlook.” He added: “For now, traders should brace for increased volatility in the coming days.”

Risk Warning： Leveraged derivative products are complex and involve a high risk of losing your capital quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of loss.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

U.S. PPI Flat in June: Goods Sector Shows Tariff Impact, Mixed Inflation Signals Complicate Fed Policy​

U.S. producer prices were unchanged in June compared to May, with the annual inflation rate also slowing more than expected—underscoring mixed inflation signals as new trade tariffs begin to trickle into production costs.

U.S. PPI Flat in June, But Tariff Impact Surfaces​

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged on a month-over-month basis, falling short of expectations for a 0.2% increase. On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 2.3%, slowing from May’s 2.7%, and marking the smallest annual gain since September 2024. The flat headline number, however, masks underlying shifts. Goods prices rose 0.3%, with notable increases in electrical equipment, household appliances, and industrial materials—categories directly exposed to recent import tariffs. Meanwhile, service prices declined 0.1%, weighed down by weaker transportation, trade margins, and warehousing costs. The drops in services effectively offset the rise in goods prices.

• US June PPI by Components

Image Source: Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistic

Shawn Lee, Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, stated: “While the headline number was flat, the underlying dynamics show clear tariff-related cost pressures building in the goods sector. It’s likely only the beginning of broader price pass-through as new duties, especially on copper and electronics, take effect in August.”

Fed Policy in Focus Amid Mixed Inflation Prints​

June’s PPI data follows a hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, which showed headline inflation rising to 2.7% year-over-year. Taken together, the CPI and PPI paint a complicated picture for the Federal Reserve as it navigates between maintaining price stability and supporting economic growth. Shawn added: “Sticky inflation in certain components may make it harder for the Fed to justify early rate cuts.” While easing service inflation offers some relief, the gradual rise in goods prices—driven in part by tariffs—could pose a risk to the Fed’s preferred inflation trajectory.

Market Reaction and What’s Next​

Markets reacted cautiously to the release. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly immediately after the data but later recovered its losses. Meanwhile, gold prices briefly spiked to a session high of $3,377, before giving back gains later in the day. Investor attention now turns to several key events: upcoming remarks from Fed officials, which may provide clues on the policy outlook; the G20 Finance Ministers Meeting this weekend, where global leaders are expected to discuss responses to escalating U.S. tariffs; and additional inflation data, including July’s PPI and the Fed’s preferred core PCE gauge later this month.

Risk Warning： Leveraged derivative products are complex and involve a high risk of losing your capital quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of loss.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Stocks Hit Record Highs on Strong Tech Earnings & Fed Hopes, But Tariff Watch Continues​

U.S. stock indices surged to fresh all-time highs on Thursday, lifted by strong corporate earnings from Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Netflix. The rally extended across major benchmarks, with both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 closing at record levels. Tech-led optimism continued to drive market momentum, with investors largely shrugging off global trade concerns and instead focusing on signs of potential Fed easing in the months ahead.

Fed Officials Send Mixed Signals on Rate Path​

Markets found support in comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who voiced his backing for a potential 25-basis point rate cut in July, citing slowing labor market momentum and lingering downside risks to growth. He noted that the recent uptick in inflation appears largely tariff-driven and may prove transitory. In contrast, New York Fed President John Williams struck a more cautious tone, suggesting the full economic impact of tariffs has yet to materialize. He emphasized the importance of upcoming data—including July PPI and core PCE—in guiding the Fed's next moves.

Trade and Tariff Outlook: Focus Turns to Smaller Nations​

On the trade front, President Trump hinted at potential 10–15% tariffs on imports from over 150 smaller economies. Formal notifications are reportedly underway, underscoring that tariff risks remain a central driver of global market sentiment. Markets are now closely watching for international responses—particularly from the EU, Canada, Mexico, and possibly Japan and South Korea—ahead of this weekend’s G20 Finance Ministers Meeting. Any sign of retaliation or diplomatic friction could revive volatility.

Market Sentiment: Resilient but Vulnerable​

Despite the reemergence of tariff threats, equity sentiment remains firm. Investors appear to have priced in the near-term impact of tariffs, focusing instead on corporate performance and monetary policy. Shawn Lee, Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, stated: “Markets were largely unmoved by the latest tariff rhetoric, suggesting that traders have already digested much of the impact.” He added: “However, if upcoming actions exceed expectations or tensions escalate heading into the August 1 tariff deadline, we could still see significant volatility.”

• CBOE Volatility Index

Image Source: Source: Ultima Market MT5

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains near historically low levels, signaling broad market calm. However, it edged slightly higher this week—potentially reflecting a degree of profit-taking or precautionary hedging by investors following the strong rally in equities.

Risk Warning： Leveraged derivative products are complex and involve a high risk of losing your capital quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of loss.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Yen Firms Slightly as Japanese Ruling Coalition Loses Majority; Fiscal Concerns & Political Uncertainty in Focus​

The Japanese Yen saw a modest recovery on Monday, firming around ¥148.30 per U.S. Dollar, as markets digested the political fallout from Japan’s weekend Upper House election, where the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito lost their majority, deepening the country’s political uncertainty. The outcome dealt a significant blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s already fragile minority government, raising concerns over potential fiscal loosening and reform paralysis at a time when Japan is already grappling with record-high debt and volatile bond markets.

Rising Fiscal Risk Weighs on JGBs​

Market participants are increasingly wary that the weakened coalition could resort to populist stimulus measures—including consumption tax cuts, cash handouts, and expanded fiscal spending—to regain public support. This prospect has led to a sharp rise in long-dated Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, with the 30-year yield hitting a fresh multi-month high on Monday.

• Japan Government Bonds 30-Y Yields

Image Source: Source: TradingView

Shawn Lee, Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, stated: “Surging yields in long-dated JGBs could complicate the Bank of Japan’s monetary stance. If the government ramps up fiscal spending to boost its approval ratings, it could further strain the bond market and place downward pressure on the Yen and,”.

Tariff Tensions and FX Volatility in Focus​

The election results come at a crucial time, with U.S.–Japan tariff negotiations approaching an August 1 deadline. The weakened Yen—down over 5% year-to-date—has drawn scrutiny from U.S. trade officials, especially as President Trump moves to impose a new round of tariffs targeting over 150 countries, including Japan. At the G20 Finance Ministers meeting, Japanese Finance Minister Kenji Kato reiterated Japan’s commitment to preventing excessive currency volatility, signaling that authorities are monitoring FX markets closely. However, the Ministry of Finance has so far refrained from direct intervention.

Market Outlook: Yen Volatility Ahead, USDJPY Nears 150​

With Japan’s political landscape in flux and key global trade decisions looming, investors are bracing for further volatility. Market attention is now firmly focused on potential BoJ and MoF responses, as well as any policy clues from the new parliamentary balance. Shawn Lee, Ultima Market Analyst, stated: “Unless the political dust settles and policy direction stabilizes, the Yen will likely remain under pressure,”.

The USDJPY extended its rally to a fresh four-month high, driven by broad-based Yen weakness. The sharp depreciation in the Yen has drawn renewed attention, particularly from the U.S., where Trump has voiced concerns over Japan’s currency moves.

• USDJPY, 4-H Chart Analysis

Image Source: Source: Ultima Market MT5

The pair has decisively broken above the 148.00 level, prompting speculation about potential responses from Japanese authorities. Market focus now shifts toward the psychologically significant 150.00 level—a threshold that has historically triggered verbal intervention or stealth operations from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) or Ministry of Finance (MoF) to rein in volatility. Traders remain on high alert as the pair approaches this key resistance, watching closely for any signals of policy response or FX market intervention from Japanese officials.

Risk Warning： Leveraged derivative products are complex and involve a high risk of losing your capital quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of loss.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

🚨 Gold Breaks $3,400: Safe-Haven Demand Returns Amid Rising Uncertainty​

Gold surged to a 1-month high of $3,400 per ounce on Monday, driven by renewed safe-haven demand as global risks pile up.

🧨 What’s fueling the rally?​

• 📉 US Dollar dropped on low-volume Monday
• 📊 US core inflation remains sticky
• 📦 Tariff effects starting to show in production & consumer prices
• 🌍 Geopolitical tensions in Japan + global trade friction rising
• 💸 Concerns over US fiscal stability

“Gold is once again proving its resilience,” said Shawn Lee, Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets. “Inflation and global tensions are giving bulls plenty to work with.”

📈 Technical Snapshot – XAU/USD​

• Broke key resistance at $3,360, confirming bullish breakout
• Short-term charts show possible pullback near $3,400 (psychological resistance)
• Support zone: $3,360–$3,370 — a successful retest here could fuel more upside
• 2-Hour EMA shows bullish crossover — momentum still favors buyers

XAU/USD, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

XAU/USD, 2-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

🧭 Takeaway:​

Gold’s momentum is strong, but short-term resistance at $3,400 could cap gains. Watch for a healthy pullback and support confirmation before chasing further highs.

📊 Charts: XAU/USD 4H & 2H via Ultima Markets MT5

📌 For full analysis → [Ultima Markets News & Analysis]