Daily News Analysis By Ultima Markets

[Ultima markets]

Middle East Conflict Intensifies: Israel and Iran Exchange Blows, Global Equities Cautiously Higher, Oil Surges – What's Next?​

Global equities opened broadly higher on Monday , despite rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East where tensions between Israel and Iran escalated further over the weekend. The situation worsened on Sunday, with both sides engaging in retaliatory attacks.

Market Overview: Middle East Tensions and Market Reaction​

On Friday, global equity markets slipped while oil prices surged sharply, following Israel’s large-scale strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. These latest exchanges reportedly resulted in civilian casualties and heightened fears of a wider regional conflict, as both militaries issued warnings to civilians on the opposing side to take safety precautions.

Investors are increasingly concerned about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic shipping route that handles roughly 20% of the world’s total oil consumption. Any extended military confrontation in the region could significantly disrupt oil flows and further elevate energy prices.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Remains High​

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he hoped Israel and Iran could reach a ceasefire, but added that “sometimes countries have to fight it out first.” He reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel but declined to comment on whether he had urged Israel to halt its strikes. The Middle East conflict is expected to be a key topic at this week’s Group of Seven (G7) summit in Canada. German Chancellor Merz expressed hope that G7 leaders could reach a consensus on how to help de-escalate the situation. However, Iran has firmly stated that it will not engage in ceasefire negotiations while under active attack by Israel—adding further uncertainty to the geopolitical outlook.

Oil prices rallied sharply on Friday, with Brent crude settling at $74.80 per barrel and WTI closing at $73.20. In intraday trading, WTI crude spiked over 14%, hitting its highest level since January, while Brent rose nearly 12% for the week.

Global Equities: Cautious Optimism Amid Rising Risks​

Global equity markets faced broad selling pressure last Friday, leading to declines across major indices. However, despite escalating geopolitical tensions over the weekend, Asian markets opened higher on Monday, and futures in Europe and the U.S. also edged up. Still, investor sentiment remains fragile. With several key central bank decisions on the horizon and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, market nerves could resurface quickly. Any sudden shift in risk appetite or policy tone may trigger renewed volatility across global markets.

• Technical Outlook: S&P 500 As highlighted earlier, the S&P 500’s bullish momentum has started to wane. A rising wedge pattern had formed near the critical 6000 level—often a bearish reversal signal.
  
  
  
  Image Source: SP500, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Last week, the index broke below this pattern. And although Monday’s open saw a brief rebound, failure to reclaim the 6000 level could open the door to further downside, especially if global sentiment deteriorates further.

• Technical Outlook: EuroStoxx50
  
  
  
  Image Source: EU50, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

The EU50 index has broken below a key ascending wedge structure, signaling a potential bearish reversal. The breakdown comes after multiple failed attempts to breach the upper resistance zone near 5430–5450, which aligns with the upper bound of the multi-month consolidation range.

Summary​

While escalating Middle East tensions may not be the primary drag on equities, broader market caution persists due to upcoming central bank decisions and ongoing uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade and fiscal policies. For now, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines, with risk appetite fragile. Any negative developments—geopolitical or macroeconomic—could quickly sour sentiment and trigger renewed volatility.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Geopolitical Risks & Central Bank Decisions Ahead: Global Markets Open Cautiously, USDJPY in Focus​

Global financial markets started the week on a cautious note, as investors weighed rising geopolitical tensions against a backdrop of major central bank decisions. Monday’s muted open reflects a fragile balance between risk appetite and defensive positioning.

Market Overview​

Wall Street futures dipped slightly in early trading, while European benchmarks remained broadly flat. In Asia, equities opened higher but struggled to sustain gains as market participants shifted focus to geopolitical headlines and upcoming policy signals. In the currency market, the U.S. dollar edged higher against major peers, supported by safe-haven flows amid intensifying Middle East tensions and anticipation of key policy updates from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. The Japanese yen held steady around the 145 level versus the U.S. dollar, showing resilience as speculation mounts over the BOJ’s policy path. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened, reflecting broader cautious sentiment.

Central Bank Watch: BOJ and Fed in Focus​

This week’s monetary policy calendar is headlined by the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve—both of which could shape market direction through summer.

• BOJ Outlook: The BOJ is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but investors will be watching for any shift in tone, particularly regarding its bond-buying program and inflation outlook. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments will be scrutinized for clues about whether the central bank is preparing to tighten policy more clearly, especially as trade tensions begin to ease.
• Fed Policy: The Fed convenes midweek with its rate decision due Wednesday. Softer May CPI and cooling labor market data have reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep rates on hold. However, markets are keen to hear Chair Powell’s guidance on future cuts—potentially as early as September. Any surprise hawkish tone could challenge the recent weakening trend in the U.S. dollar and reprice rate expectations.

Geopolitical Risk: Middle East Escalation Raises Caution​

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensified over the weekend following Israel’s strikes on Iranian infrastructure. In response, President Trump ordered partial evacuations of U.S. personnel in Tehran and cut short his participation in the G7 summit in Canada—highlighting the severity of the situation. China has also urged its citizens to leave Israel urgently, further emphasizing the perceived risks of a broader regional escalation. Despite the seriousness of the developments, market reactions have been relatively contained so far, as investors could largely expecting a diplomatic approach in prevent a full-blown conflict.

USDJPY: Consolidation Amid Mixed Outlook​

The USDJPY pair remains in a tight consolidation phase, trading just below the key resistance level at 145.00. Price action has been relatively muted despite rising geopolitical tensions and the approaching Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Federal Reserve meetings—two major catalysts that could soon break the current range.



Image Source: USDJPY, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Market Drivers:

• BOJ Outlook: If the BOJ hints at policy tightening or signals reduced bond purchases, it could strengthen the yen and push USDJPY lower.
• Fed Policy: Conversely, if the Fed delivers a hawkish tone—despite cooling inflation data—it may lift the dollar, supporting a breakout above 145.00.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

BOJ Holds Rates, Unveils Gradual Tapering Plan Amid Global Uncertainties​

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% on Tuesday, maintaining its highest level in 17 years while signaling a cautious approach toward policy normalization. The decision was unanimous, extending the pause in rate hikes since the 25-basis point increase in January. In its June meeting, the BOJ also outlined a clear tapering plan for its Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases—a move seen as the central bank’s next step in unwinding years of ultra-loose policy without unsettling markets.

BOJ’s Gradual Tapering​

Under the new plan, the BOJ will reduce JGB purchases by ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then taper more slowly at ¥200 billion per quarter until March 2027. The central bank aims to shrink its JGB holdings by about 17% by that time, including natural maturities. The plan was approved by an 8-1 vote. This gradual approach signals the BOJ’s intent to normalize monetary policy while minimizing the risk of market disruption, particularly in the bond and foreign exchange markets.

Ueda’s Cautious Tone​

In the post-meeting press conference, Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a cautious tone, highlighting external risks such as U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. He emphasized that future rate decisions will be data-dependent, hinging on whether inflation can sustainably exceed the 2% target. While Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, some weakness remains, particularly in consumption. Ueda noted that inflation expectations have risen moderately, but the BOJ still sees underlying inflation expectation below target.

Ueda also warned that the latest U.S. trade tariffs could weigh on Japan’s wage growth and corporate bonus outlook, potentially stalling the momentum needed for policy tightening. Meanwhile, ongoing instability in the Middle East could keep oil and food prices elevated, feeding into broader inflation expectations. In response to questions about bond market stability, Ueda reaffirmed that the BOJ stands ready to intervene with fixed-rate bond operations or liquidity tools if long-term yields spike abruptly.

Outlook: Normalization Pace Slows​

With its cautious guidance and tapering plan, the Bank of Japan is clearly signaling that monetary policy normalization will remain gradual and data-dependent. While the central bank continues to leave the door open for future tightening, the slightly more cautious tone—particularly on global risks—has tempered market expectations for another rate hike in the near term. Shawn, Senior Analyst at Ultima Markets, stated: “Given the BOJ’s growing caution around external uncertainties, the normalization timeline may now be pushed further out.” Shawn added: “If inflation evolves in line with BOJ projections, the next rate hike is likely to come no earlier than Q4 2025.”

Market Reaction: JGB Yields Slight Uptick​

Image Source: JGB 10-Year Bond Yields; Source: Ultima Market

The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield saw a slight uptick following the BoJ press conference, as markets interpreted the announced tapering of bond purchases as a potential step toward future policy tightening. Investors are beginning to price in the possibility of higher interest rates ahead, which pushed long-term yields modestly higher. Over the longer term, sustained yield increases could also lend support to the Japanese Yen.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Fed Holds Rates, Hints at 2025 Cuts: Dollar Rebounds Modestly Amid Tariff & Geopolitical Risks​

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as widely expected. However, policymakers signaled that rate cuts are still likely in 2025—though Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned against placing too much confidence in that outlook, citing ongoing uncertainties around tariffs and inflation.

Summary of Economic Projection & Powell's Press Conference Highlights​

With the decision to hold rates largely priced in, market attention turned to the June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The updated dot plot shows that the Fed still anticipates two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of 2025. However, views remain divided—some Fed officials foresee no cuts at all, underscoring the uncertainty around the rate path.

• June’s SEP Fed Dot Plot

Image Source: Source: Federal Reserve

While a majority of officials still expect two or more rate cuts in 2025, the split in opinions reflects the cautious stance the Fed is maintaining in light of mixed economic signals.

During the press conference, Powell reiterated that the dot plot projections are not commitments, but rather “weak signals” subject to change. He emphasized that future policy moves will remain data-dependent and flexible. Importantly, Powell flagged the rising inflation risks, citing two key concerns: Tariff-related uncertainties, which could push prices higher , and geopolitical tensions, including elevated oil prices driven by Middle East instability. He noted that any easing would likely depend on clear signs of cooling inflation in the coming months.

• Fed Economic Projection

Image Source: Source: Federal Reserve, Chart: Ultima Market

The Fed’s economic outlook signals slower growth and elevated inflation in 2025, reinforcing its cautious approach toward future rate cuts. Shawn, Senior Analyst at Ultima Market, stated: “The Fed’s stance hasn’t changed—it remains firmly data-driven, especially with inflation still clouded by tariff-related uncertainties.” He added, “Markets are likely to increase bets on rate cuts if inflation shows clear signs of cooling in the coming months, particularly ahead of the September meeting.”

Market Shows Mixed Reaction: Dollar Rebounds Modestly, Uncertainty Remains​

U.S. equity markets closed slightly lower on Wednesday, reflecting a mixed reaction to the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. While the Fed held rates steady as expected, its tone signaled patience and uncertainty, prompting a modest retreat in stocks. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar remained supported, with investors interpreting the Fed’s guidance as a sign that rates could stay higher for longer—especially in light of persistent inflation and slower growth.

• USDX—Dollar Index, Day Chart Analysis

Image Source: Source: Ultima Market MT5

Despite a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar following the FOMC meeting, the broader outlook remains clouded as the Fed’s overall stance showed little change. The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) continues to trend lower, struggling to reclaim the key 99–100 level. Without a sustained move above this range, it suggests that investor confidence in a stronger dollar remains limited, particularly given ongoing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability and tariff-related uncertainties.

Key Takeaways:​

• The Fed maintained a steady rate policy, emphasizing a data-dependent approach moving forward.
• The latest dot plot projects two rate cuts in 2025, but the timing remains unclear due to elevated inflation and weaker growth forecasts.
• Geopolitical risks, tariff-related inflation pressures, and concerns over data quality have become central to the Fed’s policy outlook.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Policy Divergence: BoE Hints at Gradual Cuts, SNB Cuts to Zero – Analyzing GBPCHF Outlook​

The foreign exchange market saw heightened volatility on Thursday as two major European central banks—the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB)—delivered policy updates that reflected diverging paths on rate decisions.

BoE Holds Steady, Signals Cautious Easing Ahead​

The Bank of England left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected. However, the 6-3 vote split on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)—with three members voting for an immediate rate cut—was slightly more dovish than markets had anticipated. This suggests momentum is building internally toward rate reductions, although the BoE emphasized future cuts would be “gradual and carefully considered” given lingering inflation risks.

Key drivers behind the decision include: June payrolls saw their biggest monthly drop since 2020, signaling softening labor demand. While headline inflation eased to 3.4% in May, services inflation remained elevated, keeping underlying price pressures stubbornly high. External risks, such as ongoing Middle East tensions and higher oil prices (~$77/bbl), alongside U.S. tariff uncertainty, added pressure to the UK’s economic outlook.

The BoE expects inflation to peak near 3.7% in Q3, then ease to around 3.5% by year-end. Markets are now pricing in the first BoE rate cut in August, with a terminal rate of 3.75% by year-end.

SNB Cuts Rate to Zero, Ending Tightening Cycle​

In a more decisive shift compared to the Bank of England’s cautious approach, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0%. This marks its sixth rate cut since March 2024 and first return to a zero-rate environment since 2022.

The decision was driven by easing domestic inflation pressures and the ongoing strength of the Swiss franc , which has helped contain imported inflation.

In its policy statement, the SNB highlighted the rate cut's aim to counter weak inflation trends and reduce upward pressure on the franc. The bank flagged ongoing global risks, including trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, and slowing global demand. While moving toward a neutral policy stance, the SNB emphasized it remains ready to act again should inflation deviate from target levels. Notably, the SNB made clear it retains flexibility in using both interest rates and FX market tools, reaffirming FX intervention as a live option to manage excessive franc appreciation. Negative interest rates are not entirely ruled out but would be considered with caution due to potential side effects.

GBPCHF: Rebound on Policy Divergence​

The GBPCHF pair rebounded from a two-month low, lifted by the growing policy divergence between the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. After dipping to the 1.0950 level, the British pound regained ground against the franc, supported by expectations that the BoE will remain more cautious compared to the SNB’s dovish turn.

• GBPCHF, 4-H Chart Analysis
  
  
  
  Image Source: GBPCHF, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Technically, 1.0950–1.1050 serves as a major range-bound zone for the pair. A clearer move would only emerge upon a breakout from this current range. While policy divergence could be favorable to the pound, traders should remain cautious about any short-term moves.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Global Equities Tumble as US & Israeli Airstrikes Escalate Middle East Tensions; Oil Surges​

Global equities declined at Monday’s open as investors reassessed risk sentiment amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The drop followed news of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, sparking fears of retaliation and broader regional instability.

Market Overview & Middle East Tensions​

Asian markets fell sharply, while U.S. and European equity futures also traded lower in early hours. Risk-off sentiment prevailed as traders moved to hedge against potential geopolitical fallout.

Oil prices continued their upward momentum, surging to five-month highs on fears of supply disruptions. Brent crude rose to $79 per barrel, while WTI crude climbed to $78.50 per barrel. These gains were driven by market concerns over the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil transit route.

Geopolitical risks spiked after the U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The strikes, carried out on June 21, targeted facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan using bunker-buster bombs and cruise missiles. The U.S. described the attacks as having “obliterated” key components of Iran’s nuclear program. Israel reportedly continues the operation, focusing on Iranian missile and nuclear infrastructure.

In response, Iran launched a retaliatory barrage of missiles and drones at Israel, with confirmed strikes on Be’er Sheva, including a hospital and civilian areas. Also, Iran threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz and called for international condemnation, accusing the West of aggression. Over the international response, Russia and China called for an immediate ceasefire and diplomatic dialogue, while the U.N. Security Council convened an emergency session, urging de-escalation. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump praised the strikes and hinted at the possibility of regime change in Iran.

Global Equities Slide on Uneased Sentiment​

Global stock markets opened lower on Monday as unease over geopolitical risks weighed on investor sentiment. This weakness is notable given that many major global indices are trading near all-time highs.

• SP500: Facing Challenge at 6000-mark In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index edged slightly lower at the open, struggling to regain ground above the key 6,000-mark—a level it has been consolidating around for some time. From a technical perspective, the recent price action suggests a loss of bullish momentum. With sentiment already fragile, any significant shift—especially from geopolitical developments or surprise economic data—could quickly accelerate downside pressure.
  
  
  
  Image Source: SP500, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5
• EU50: Bearish Breakout Signals Further Downside Risk In Europe, the EuroStoxx 50 (EU50) staged a bearish breakout, breaching the lower boundary of a recent triangle pattern and falling below the key 5,300 support level.
  
  
  
  Image Source: EU50, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5 With sentiment remaining fragile amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty, the technical breakdown suggests that EU50 faces increased risk of further downside in the near term.

Summary​

While escalating Middle East tensions may not be the primary drag on equities, broader market caution persists due to upcoming central bank decisions and ongoing uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade and fiscal policies. For now, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines, with risk appetite fragile. Any negative developments—geopolitical or macroeconomic—could quickly sour sentiment and trigger renewed volatility.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Oil & Gold Tumble on Israel-Iran Ceasefire Hopes: Is Risk Premium Fading?​

Tensions in the Middle East saw a dramatic shift on Monday as U.S. President Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, following nearly two weeks of intense military confrontation. The ceasefire—reportedly brokered through Qatar—comes after a wave of retaliatory missile and drone strikes that had destabilized the region and rattled global financial markets.

Ceasefire Likely, But Still Uncertain​

While President Trump claimed a ceasefire had been reached, neither Iran nor Israel has formally confirmed the agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran would halt its attacks if Israel ceases airstrikes by 4 a.m. local time. Araghchi posted: “As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 a.m. Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.” This conditional stance suggests that tensions could quickly flare again if no mutual confirmation or coordinated de-escalation is achieved.

Market Reaction: Commodities Tumble on Ceasefire Hopes​

Despite the absence of an official ceasefire confirmation from either Israel or Iran, markets responded swiftly to the apparent easing of geopolitical tensions. Crude oil prices plunged by more than 10% on Tuesday morning as hopes for de-escalation gained traction. Brent crude slipped below the $70 per barrel mark, while WTI crude fell back near its pre-conflict levels, reflecting a sharp unwinding of war-risk premiums.

Gold, which had rallied to near-record highs of $3430 last week amid heightened safe-haven demand , also experienced a modest pullback. The precious metal stabilized around $3330, with the softening in geopolitical risks reducing short-term demand. Nonetheless, gold remains underpinned by broader macroeconomic uncertainties.

In the equities market, improved risk appetite triggered a moderate rebound across global indices, as investors reassessed the likelihood of worst-case conflict scenarios and shifted focus back to economic fundamentals.

Oil & Gold: Technical Outlook​

• Gold: $3,330 Holds Despite recent fluctuations, gold has largely remained range-bound, trading between the $3390 and $3350 levels. From a technical standpoint, the $3335 level continues to act as a key support area for gold.
  
  
  
  Image Source: XAUUSD, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5
• WTI: Retest the $66 Level WTI saw a sharp pullback, retreating to its pre-conflict level near $66 per barrel—a key psychological level that has played a significant role over the past four years. This zone is likely to remain a crucial support for WTI in the near term.
  
  
  
  Image Source: USOUSD WTI, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Market Outlook​

The ceasefire has provided immediate relief to global markets, but the path forward remains uncertain. Traders will be closely watching developments in the region and Iran’s next steps in nuclear negotiations. Any resurgence in conflict could rapidly reverse the current trend in commodities and reignite volatility.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Powell's Testimony: Fed Sees No Rush for Rate Cuts, Citing Tariff & Inflation Risks​

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered another cautious tone during his testimony before Congress on Tuesday, reiterating that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates. Despite increasing market expectations for policy easing, Powell emphasized that the Fed remains firmly committed to a data-dependent approach.

Tariffs and Inflation Concerns Remain, Outlook Uncertain​

Powell reiterated that the Fed remains firmly data-dependent and will wait for clearer signs that inflation is sustainably returning to its 2% target before adjusting rates. In particular, Powell warned that recent tariff increases could fuel upward pressure on inflation in the coming months. He noted that while the U.S. labor market remains strong and economic growth resilient, global uncertainties—including trade policy and geopolitical tensions—still pose uncertainty risk to inflationary pressures. Powell also pushed back on calls to cut rates in response to political pressure, stating: “I do not want to point to a particular meeting. I don’t think we need to be in any rush”.

• Fed Target Rate Probabilities for September
  
  
  
  Image Source: Source: CME FedWatch

The Fed’s economic outlook signals slower growth and elevated inflation in 2025, reinforcing its cautious approach toward future rate cuts. Shawn, Senior Analyst at Ultima Market, stated: “The Fed’s stance hasn’t changed—it remains firmly data-driven, especially with inflation still clouded by tariff-related uncertainties”. He added, “Markets are likely to increase bets on rate cuts if inflation shows clear signs of cooling in the coming months, particularly ahead of the September meeting”.

Market Reaction: Focus on September Cuts, Dollar Under Pressure​

Following Powell’s remarks, markets scaled back expectations for a July rate cut. Fed Funds Futures now show an 81.4% probability of no change in July, increased sharply from earlier weeks. However, expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September rose to 68.8%, up from 53.1% just a week ago, suggesting investors see easing still on the table—but at a slower pace.

The U.S. Dollar further extended downside but broadly held steady, while Treasury yields edged slightly lower as markets digested Powell’s cautious tone.

• USDX—Dollar Index, 4-H Chart Analysis
  
  
  
  Image Source: Source: Ultima Market MT5

From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index (USDX) remains in a bearish posture, struggling to reclaim the key 99–100 resistance zone. Without any fresh catalysts to support a rebound—such as stronger economic data or a shift in monetary or Trump policy—the dollar is likely to stay under pressure in the near term.

Markets will be closely watching Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—PCE Price Index. A softer-than-expected reading would likely boost expectations for a September rate cut and another cut later this year, reinforcing Powell’s data-centric approach and potentially giving the Fed greater flexibility.

Key Takeaways:​

• The Fed maintained a steady rate policy, emphasizing a data-dependent approach moving forward.
• The latest dot plot projects two rate cuts in 2025, but the timing remains unclear due to elevated inflation and weaker growth forecasts.
• Geopolitical risks, tariff-related inflation pressures, and concerns over data quality have become central to the Fed’s policy outlook.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Oil & Gold Tumble on Israel-Iran Ceasefire Hopes: Is Risk Premium Fading?​

Tensions in the Middle East saw a dramatic shift on Monday as U.S. President Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, following nearly two weeks of intense military confrontation. The ceasefire—reportedly brokered through Qatar—comes after a wave of retaliatory missile and drone strikes that had destabilized the region and rattled global financial markets.

Ceasefire Likely, But Still Uncertain​

While President Trump claimed a ceasefire had been reached , neither Iran nor Israel has formally confirmed the agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran would halt its attacks if Israel ceases airstrikes by 4 a.m. local time. Araghchi posted: “As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 a.m. Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.” This conditional stance suggests that tensions could quickly flare again if no mutual confirmation or coordinated de-escalation is achieved.

Market Reaction: Commodities Tumble on Ceasefire Hopes​

Despite the absence of an official ceasefire confirmation from either Israel or Iran, markets responded swiftly to the apparent easing of geopolitical tensions. Crude oil prices plunged by more than 10% on Tuesday morning as hopes for de-escalation gained traction. Brent crude slipped below the $70 per barrel mark, while WTI crude fell back near its pre-conflict levels , reflecting a sharp unwinding of war-risk premiums.

Gold, which had rallied to near-record highs of $3430 last week amid heightened safe-haven demand , also experienced a modest pullback. The precious metal stabilized around $3330 , with the softening in geopolitical risks reducing short-term demand. Nonetheless, gold remains underpinned by broader macroeconomic uncertainties.

In the equities market, improved risk appetite triggered a moderate rebound across global indices, as investors reassessed the likelihood of worst-case conflict scenarios and shifted focus back to economic fundamentals.

Oil & Gold: Technical Outlook​

• Gold: $3,330 Holds Despite recent fluctuations, gold has largely remained range-bound, trading between the $3390 and $3350 levels. From a technical standpoint, the $3335 level continues to act as a key support area for gold.
  
  
  
  Image Source: XAUUSD, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5
• WTI: Retest the $66 Level WTI saw a sharp pullback, retreating to its pre-conflict level near $66 per barrel—a key psychological level that has played a significant role over the past four years. This zone is likely to remain a crucial support for WTI in the near term.
  
  
  
  Image Source: USOUSD WTI, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Market Outlook​

The ceasefire has provided immediate relief to global markets , but the path forward remains uncertain. Traders will be closely watching developments in the region and Iran’s next steps in nuclear negotiations. Any resurgence in conflict could rapidly reverse the current trend in commodities and reignite volatility.

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

 

[Ultima markets]

Global Stocks Rally with Wall Street, But July Risks Loom from Tariffs & US Jobs Data​

Global equity markets followed Wall Street’s lead, extending gains after the S&P500 and Nasdaq Index both closed at fresh record highs last week, driven by strength in U.S. tech stocks and optimism over the eased geopolitical outlook. Asia-Pacific indices and European futures posted modest advances on Monday’s opening, with sentiment buoyed by improving investors sentiment and a weaker U.S. dollar.

U.S. Strength Supports Global Risk Assets, But July Risks Loom​

The U.S. equity rally—fueled by AI-driven tech stocks and soft inflation readings—has provided a tailwind for global markets. Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue to benefit from easing expectations on Fed policy, as traders grow confident that the central bank could begin cutting rates later this year.

However, despite the upbeat momentum, investors may now remain cautiously optimistic as the market approaches a critical period in early July, where Trump’s 90-day tariff pause could test the resilience of the risk rally.

Trump’s 90-Day Tariff Pause Set to Due​

One of the major market concerns is the upcoming July 9 due date on U.S. President Trump’s 90-day pause on planned tariffs. While markets have priced in positively on the temporary calm, any signals of tariff reinstatement or trade concern rhetoric could reignite global trade tensions—particularly between the U.S. and China trade truce that remains uncertain.

Such a development would likely weigh on risk-sensitive assets and currencies, especially the Australian Dollar or Canadian Dollar and emerging market equities, which are highly exposed to global trade dynamics. Furthermore, if the trade dynamic changes, this could lead to a broader market challenge as well.

All Eyes on U.S. Labor Market Data This Week​

Adding to the cautious stance is the importance of upcoming U.S. labor market data, including:

• ADP Employment Change (Wednesday, July 2)
• Nonfarm payrolls report (Thursday, July 3)

Image Source: U.S. Key Labor Data | Source: Ultima Market Economic Calendar

Economists are forecasting +110,000 jobs added in June, with unemployment ticking up to 4.3%. A weaker-than-expected print could strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, potentially fueling further equity upside —but may also raise concerns about U.S. economic resilience.

Outlook: Positive Momentum Meets Event Risk​

While global equities are supported by Wall Street strength and easing inflation, markets may enter a more volatile phase in July. With Trump’s tariff pause nearing expiration and key labor market data due, investors are likely to stay selective, favoring assets with strong earnings visibility and lower geopolitical exposure.

Shawn, Ultima Market Senior Analyst, stated: “Until clearer signals emerge, the current phase is likely to remain a battle between bullish momentum and cautious positioning.”

Disclaimer​

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.