Daily Market Analysis by Vinson Financials

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Financial News November 4, 2015


ECB unlikely to force EUR/USD lower with higher rate cuts

ECB might not go higher than the priced in rate cuts and weigh on EUR/USD in near future. It can go to the extent of 12bp by mid 2016 is what some of the market participants expecting.

The pair is currently at 1.952 and might stay above the March lows, although with the risk of downside of 1.08 in coming months.
As there would be expectations on the possibitly of further ECB cuts and as there will be first rate hike from US Fedral Reserve, the pair might also be weighed on. It is skeptical that the ECB settles on -30bp for the deposit rate and EUR/USD will be continued to be pressurized to go much lower beyond Q1.

With ECB waiting for the economic impact of previous easing and the shallow US Fed hiking cycle is adjusted into the money markets, the downside risks are set to wane and the factors supporting EUR should slowly dominate.

"In terms of the impact on EUR/USD, the ECB will be satisfied to see it stop strengthening, rather than force about a drop towards, say, parity. While the USD is important for the effective euro, the CNY has a higher weight, hence in terms of the impact on inflation, the CNY should be followed more closely than the USD", says Danske Bank.

Market Review November 4, 2015


New Zealand posted yesterday its Job data, and it was worse than expected. More specifically, employment fell by 11,000, or 0.4%, missing expectations for an increase of 0.4%, the first fall in employment seen since the June 2012. Moreover, unemployment rate ticked up to 6.0% from 5.9%, in line with expectations, but this was entirely due to a plunge in labour market participation. Furthermore, Labour Cost Index rose 0.4% missing the estimated 0.5%. The recent poor job data is seen by many as an additional reason for the RBNZ to maintain its easing bias after it left the OCR unchanged at 2.75% last week. NZD/USD dropped to the 0.6630 area and currently is trading near the 0.6655 area.

Released during the Asian session this morning , Australian Retail Sales rose 0.4%, which is in line with expectations, while Trade Balance came in at -2.32B versus the estimated -2.85B.

Released also during the session, the BOJ monetary base rose 32.5% on year in October, as the Bank of Japan stated, coming in at 338.887 trillion yen and compared to the previous of 35.1% in September. In addition, Japan Consumer Confidence came in at 41.5 beating the estimated 41.1.

Elsewhere, the EUR fell against the GBP and the USD last night, following European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi reiterating the dovish comments he made in October. Speaking at a cultural event in Frankfurt, Draghi repeated that the ECB would review the amount of monetary stimulus required at the next governing council meeting in December, but is “willing and able to use all the instruments available”. Growth prospects in emerging markets and “external factors” are dragging on the outlook for growth and inflation, he said. Domestic demand remains “resilient”, however. Last month, Draghi said the ECB would be better able to decide the level of stimulus needed once the latest inflation forecasts for the Eurozone came in. EUR/USD is currently trading near the 1.0935 area with the next support seen at the 1.0895 level.

The main event for the day would be the United Kingdom Services PMI, the United States ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Fed Chair Yellen Testimony.

Additional economic releases would be the Eurozone Final Services PMI.

Data releases to monitor:

USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, Final Services PMI, Fed Chair Yellen testimony, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Member Dudley speech, FOMC Member Brainard speech.

GBP: Services PMI.

EUR: Spanish Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, Final Services PMI, PPI.

CAD: Trade Balance.

Trade Idea of the Day

USD/CHF


Currently the pair is trading at 0.9919. Traders must monitor the 0.9956 resistance level and the support level of 0.9805 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be of the 0.9924 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 0.9950 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 0.9881 support level, where a break may lead to the 0.9855 area.

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Financial News November 5, 2015


Daily Economic Outlook: 5th November 2015

Today, market's focus will be on the BoE monetary policy announcement, with the simultaneous publication of the MPC minutes and the Inflation Report.

"Due to the poor performance of the global economy and recent fall in domestic momentum, the MPC will need to re-examine its previous assumptions of ongoing relative UK economic strength leading to firmer cost pressures.The MPC's communications overall is likely to paint the prospect of an eventual but unhurried tightening", says Lloyds Bank.

FOMC speakers alongside US productivity data for 2015 Q3 are likely to be observed for implications on US monetary policy lift-off. With the profile of GDP growth choppy over 2015, underlying productivity trends are hard to gauge.

Lloyds Bank says that the MPC will perhaps point towards an inflation overshoot "beyond the 2-year horizon", thereby emphasizing on an eventual policy tightening, regardless of the possibility of downward near-term revisions to the GDP growth as well as inflation projections of the economy. But with the timing allowed to slip by a quarter, even this passive change could be seen as dovish. Crucially, the MPC's forecasts will be conditioned on a much shallower policy rate profile than in August.

"As such, the MPC's indication of steeper rate expectations would start from a much lower base. In terms of the vote split, one MPC member, more likely Forbes than Weale, is expected to join McCafferty in voting for higher rates. An unchanged 8-1 vote split would render more likely a move later in 2016 than our current expectation of February 2016", added Lloyds Bank.


Market Review November 5, 2015


Federal Reserve chair stated yesterday to the House committee that no decision has been made but a rise in rates is still a ‘live possibility’ if the upcoming data are supportive and despite continued low inflation. "If the incoming information supports that expectation, then or statement indicates that December would be a live possibility," she said.

Yellen also said she and the committee expect the economy to grow "at a pace that's sufficient to generate further improvement in the labour market, and to return inflation to the 2 percent target." Yellen also provided testimony on the health of U.S. banks, which has improved, but some problems still remain. Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, Yellen said capital at the eight biggest U.S. banks has nearly doubled and now sits at about $500 billion. The US Dollar was supported by job data and Fed chair Yellen's comment and remains firm today.

Elsewhere, the minutes for BOJ's meeting released during the Asian session, unveiled that domestic demand remained firm despite stagnant growth in exports and the economy in general. Policymakers agreed that the underlying trend in inflation would continue to improve and they pledged to continue implementation of QQE until the target inflation rate of 2 per cent is stable. On global economic developments, the central bank, however, noted concerns over slowdown in China and other emerging market would eventually affect Japan's exports and economic activities.

Released during the early European session, the Swiss SECO Consumer Climate came in at -18 versus the estimated -14 and compared to the previous of -19. German Factory Orders declined -1.7% versus expectations of 1.1% rise. EUR/USD extended losses reaching to fresh 3 months low of 1.0833. Released from the United Kingdom, Halifax HPI rose 1.1% beating the estimated 0.7%.

The United Kingdom will remain the focus of the day, as the BoE will have another "Super Thursday”. The BoE will release its Inflation Report, Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary and Official Bank Rate.

Additional economic releases would be the United States Unemployment Claims and ECB President Mario Draghi speech.


Data releases to monitor:

Member Fischer speech, Natural Gas Storage, FOMC Member Lockhart speech.

GBP: BOE Inflation Report, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary, Official Bank Rate, Asset Purchase Facility, MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, BOE Gov Carney speech.

EUR: ECB Economic Bulletin, Retail PMI, EU Economic Forecasts, Retail Sales, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, French 10-y Bond Auction, ECB President Draghi speech.

CAD: Ivey PMI

Trade Idea of the Day

GBP/CAD


Currently the pair is trading at 2.0239. Traders must monitor the 2.0320 resistance level and the support level 2.0120 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement above 2.0270 resistance level where a break may lead to 2.0320 and possible to 2.0390 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement near 2.0220 and a testing of the level.

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Financial News November 6, 2015


Daily Economic Outlook: 6th November 2015

Market will be focusing on today's U.S. labour market report. Fed Chair Yellen and FOMC members gave a hint of interest rate hike in December, but the upcomming data will determine the rate hike.

"This week's releases, including a very strong ISM non-manufacturing survey for October, have boosted expectations of a December Fed move. However, it is undoubtedly the case that today's labour market data and the subsequent release in early December will be key inputs into the decision", says Lloyds bank.

Experts believe that U.S. employment rate in October will be increased by 182k. Though this figure is beter than past past two months performance but it is still less than the average rise in 2014 as well as 2015.

"Yesterday's Inflation Report and press conference by BoE Governor Carney appear to make an early 2016 interest rate hike look unlikely, even if the Fed moves in December. Markets are now pricing in no change until early 2017. Looking at today's data, UK industrial production is expected to have declined modestly in September, although manufacturing output is forecast to rise on the month. A significantly different outturn for industrial production would increase the probability that the initial estimate of Q3 GDP growth of 0.5% will be revised", notes Lloyds Bank.

Market Review November 6, 2015


Traders are waiting for the US NFP data later today as the USD stays strong compare to the other majors. Earlier this week, Janet Yellen indicated that if the upcoming jobs data supports Fed expectations regarding the US economy there is a possibility for a rate hike in December. Most of forex traders, bond and stocks investors have speculated for a positive number and any deviation in regards the NFP would cause huge impact in the market.

Yesterday the market got volatile after RBA decided to hold rates. The BOE voted 8-1 to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% with Ian McCafferty the sole dissenter proposing a rate hike. Additionally Australia's central bank kept its cash rate unchanged at 2% as widely expected and the same time left the window open for possible rate cuts due to low inflation if the economy outlook demands it.

U.S. NFP data on 13:30 GMT time remains the key event of the day since it will affect the upcoming weeks market movements as well, therefore the market would be rather quiet until the actual release.

Today other events that worth monitoring are UK Manufacturing Production m/m, and UK Trade Balance. Canada will also release Jobs data.

In regards to economic releases announced so far we had the Australia’s AIG Construction Index at 52.1, Japan’s Leading Indicators at 101.4%, German Industrial Production m/m at -1.1%, Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves announced at 551 billion.

View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events.


Data releases to monitor:

BP: Manufacturing Production m/m, Trade Balance,

USD: Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Unemployment Rate

CAD: Employment Change q/q, Unemployment Rate

Trade Idea of the Day

EUR/JPY


Currently the pair is trading at 132.56. Traders must monitor the 133.37 resistance level and the support level 131.59 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 132.70 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 133.20 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 132.27 support level, where a break may lead to the 131.85 area.


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Financial News November 10, 2015


U.S. to lead global economic growth

States, labor market as well as consumption shown a solid rebound in October. The global manufacture, which was facing low factory utilization rates and high inventories, will be encouraged after seeing the positive sign in the US consumption figure.

The ISM nonmanufacturing index of the economy posted a robust growth rate in October and reached to 59.1. Similarly, service sector is also expected to rebound soon.

The rate hike assumption was extended to March 2016, as the volatility in financial markets is unlikely to stay for a long and the Fed may face difficulty to resolve its differences about the possibility of rate hikes before year-end, says Barclays.

The solid payroll report caused the analysts to change their rate hike to expectation from December 2015 to March 2016.

"We now forecast a federal funds range of 25-50bp in December, up from the current 0-25bp range", states Barclays.

Market Review November 11, 2015


Session this morning was quite busy with economic releases from Japan, Australia and China. Released from Japan, Bank Lending rose 2.5% versus the previous of 2.6% while Japan’s current account came in at 0.78 Trillion yen versus the estimated 1.50 Trillion yen. USD/JPY remained near the 123.37 area with the next resistance seen at the 123.60 level. Released from Australia, NAB Business Confidence remained positive at +2, while Home Loans rose 2.0% beating the estimated 0.1%. AUD/USD stayed near the 0.7055 area after the recent drop from the 0.7155 area. Released from China, Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected at 1.3 per cent versus the estimated 1.5 per cent. Moreover Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped -5.9%, which was in line with expectations.

Released during the early European session, Unemployment in Switzerland worsened in October, rising to 3.4% from 3.1% a year earlier. Released from France, Industrial Production rose just 0.1% versus the previous of 1.7%.

The key events for the day would be the RBNZ Financial Stability Report and RBNZ Gov Wheeler speech.

Additional economic releases would be the United States Import Prices, Wholesale Inventories and NFIB Small Business Index, in addition to FOMC Member Evans speech.


Data releases to monitor:

USD: NFIB Small Business Index, Import Prices, Wholesale Inventories, 10-y Bond Auction, FOMC Member Evans speech.

EUR: German Buba President Weidmann speech, Italian Industrial Production, ECOFIN Meetings.

CAD: Gov Council Member Wilkins speech.

GBP: MPC Member Cunliffe speech.

NZD: RBNZ Financial Stability Report, RBNZ Gov Wheeler speech.


Trade Idea of the Day

AUD/JPY


Currently the pair is trading at 87.02. Traders must monitor the 87.57 resistance level and the support level 85.77 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 87.18 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 87.45 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 86.67 support level, where a break may lead to the 86.25 area.


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Financial News November 11, 2015


EUR/USD to reach new low in 2016

Despite the survey data remain constructive; the real financial conditions in euro area are showing some downward risks to the economic activity.

The Fed's tightening policy, less extreme positioning and some central bank reserve liquidation are together may drive down the EUR/USD pair to new cycle lows, argues RBC Capital Markets.

There is a long time for inflationary pressures start to show which should keep EUR/USD cyclically weak as a slow pace of recovery in the economy is seen.

Daily Economic Outlook: 11th November 2015
Data wise, the latest UK labour market report will provide some reassurance that underlying trends remain solid. Employment in the 3 months to August rose by 140k which, alongside a 79k drop in unemployment, combined to nudge the jobless rate lower to 5.4% from 5.5%.

The latest surveys of hiring intentions point to further job gains in UK and a rise of 120k in the 3 months to September, notes Lloyds Bank. While a further decline in the number unemployed is expected. The jobless rate is expected to remain at 5.4% for now, forecasts Lloyds Bank. Consistent with a firm pace of labour market activity, earnings growth is also expected to firm over the same period to 3.2% on the headline measure despite a modest easing in regular pay growth.

The Bank of England's Open Forum will be attended by ECB President Mario Draghi, who is scheduled to speak at 13:15 GMT, while comments from Governor Carney are also expected throughout the day.

The recent Chinese data are unlikely to have materially altered ongoing speculation of further bouts of easing from the People's Bank of China, the reported health of the Chinese economy remains a key influence over the outlook for US monetary policy.

The downside risks to the US economy from weakening global growth may be less severe than previously thought will be the key reason for the shift towards a more hawkish stance by the FOMC.

Market Review November 11, 2015


China’s Singles’ Day, an e-commerce shopping festival, revealed new batch of economic data, showing that retail sales rose 11% beating the estimations of 10.9%, that is the fastest pace this year. Alibaba, China’s e-commerce giant that accounts for more than 80% of China's internet sales market, said sales surpassed the record amount of $9.3bn made last year in just over half the time. Furthermore, the firm stated via its news website Alizila.com that “in just over an hour total GMV reached 4 Billion US Dollar” and that “more than 27 million purchases came via mobile devices in the first hour”. The latest developments derived despite the recent slowing growth in China, giving the world's second-biggest economy another chance to prove that it can improve the economic outlook of the country. Released also from China during the Asian session, Industrial Production rose 5.6% versus the estimated 5.8% and Fixed Asset Investment rose 10.2%, which was in line with the consensus.

Released during the early European session, Japanese Prelim Machine Tool Orders declined -23.1% versus the previous of -19.1% and German WPI dropped -0.4% missing the estimated 0.2%.

The key event for the day would be the United Kingdom job data. Claimant Count Change is expected to rise 1.6k, while unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.4%. Moreover, Average Earnings Index is expected to rise 3.2% compared to the previous of 3.0%.

Additional economic events would be ECB President Mario Draghi speech and Business NZ Manufacturing Index.

Despite the economic events, it is expected to be a quiet trading day as the United States, France and Canada are on holiday.

View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events.


Data releases to monitor:

EUR: ECB President Draghi Speaks.

GBP: Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate.

NZD: Business NZ Manufacturing Index, FPI.


Trade Idea of the Day

EUR/JPY


Currently the pair is trading at 132.19. Traders must monitor the 133.18 resistance level and the support level 131.46 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 132.52 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 132.85 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 131.87 support level, where a break may lead to the 131.55 area.

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Financial News November 12, 2015


Daily Economic Outlook: 12th November 2015

Swedish CPI, Eurozone industrial production and US weekly jobless claims data are expected to release today. The Swedish numbers deserve extra mention in light of the Riksbank's recent decision to expand its QE programme and its willingness to cut rates further.

Markets are looking for Sweden October CPI to stay at 0.1%y/y, but for CPIF to edge up to 1.1%y/y, notes Lloyds Bank.
Fed Chair Yellen is likely to give welcoming remarks, but more detailed comments may come from Evans, Dudley and Fischer. In particular, the views of the potential for December liftoff from dovish Evans could garner the most attention. Lacker and Bullard, both on the more hawkish end of the spectrum, are also scheduled to speak.

ECB President Draghi will speak at the quarterly hearing before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee today morning. His comments will be closely scrutinised to gauge the degree of consensus on the Governing Council to expand the QE programme and/or cut the deposit rate at the next meeting on 3 December.

More hawkish members have indicated caution about easing policy further, but Mr Draghi last week reaffirmed comments he made at the last press conference that "the degree of monetary accommodation will need to be re-examined". In the UK, Bank of England Chief Economist Haldane is due to speak at 17:00GMT.

Market Review November 12, 2015


Australia’s jobless rate has fallen to 5.9% versus the expectations of 6.2%, hitting an 18-month low, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Furthermore, the Australian economy added 58.6K jobs in October, almost four times more than consensus forecasts of 14.8K, while MI Inflation Expectations rose 3.5%. AUD/USD rose sharply during the Asian session in response to surprising employment report, the pair rose from the 0.7060 area to the 0.7150 area, where is currently trading.

Released from Japan during the Asian session, Core Machinery Orders rose 7.5% beating the estimated 3.3% while Producer Price Index (PPI) declined -3.8% versus the estimated -3.5% USD/JPY remained near the 122.95 area with the next resistance seen at the 123.60 level.

Released during the early European session, German Final CPI stayed flat at 0.0% while French CPI rose 0.1%. EUR/USD is currently trading near the 1.0735 area, with the next resistance seen at the 1.0789 level.

The key event for the day would be ECB President Draghi speech, the United States Unemployment Claims and Fed Chair Yellen speech.

Additional economic events would be JOLTS Job Openings, Federal Budget Balance and the Eurozone Industrial Production.

View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events.


Data releases to monitor:

EUR: ECB President Draghi Speech, Industrial Production.

GBP: MPC Member Haldane speech.

CAD: NHPI.

USD: Unemployment Claims, Fed Chair Yellen speech, JOLTS Job Openings, FOMC Member Evans speech, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Member Dudley speech, 30-y Bond Auction, Federal Budget Balance.

Trade Idea of the Day

CAD/JPY


Currently the pair is trading at 92.59. Traders must monitor the 93.24 resistance level and the support level 92.13 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 92.39 support level, where a break may lead to the 92.20 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 92.82 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 93.05 area.


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Financial News November 13, 2015


USD held back on Fed-ECB with weaker stocks and commodities

Index disappointed again yesterday. There was an initial rally to 99.288 from the day's open of 98.823 into European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's testimony to the EU Parliament.

Draghi reiterated the central bank's readiness for fresh stimulus to achieve its price stability mandate, hinting at action as early as 3 Dec. This brought EUR/USD to an intra-day low of 1.0689 before it moved higher to close at 1.0817.
The DXY's fall came later during the US trading session. The DXY simply retreated the moment US stocks opened weaker and kept heading down. Both the Dow Jones and the S&P500 indices ended 1.4% lower on the day on Fed hike worries which also hurt commodities. Fed officials reaffirmed that US rates were likely to head up on 16 Dec and sought to reassure that the pace of hike cycle would be gradual. DXY ended yesterday at 98.649. Copper fell to a six-year low while WTI oil prices slipped to $41.75 for the first time since 26 Aug.

As for today, main data to watch will be Eurozone's GDP and US inflation expectations. Consensus is looking for EZ real GDP growth to improve to 1.7% (YoY) in 3Q15 from 1.5% in the previous quarter but ZEW has retreated to 30.1 in Oct15 from its high of 64.8 in Apr15. Against weaker commodity prices, USD bulls are wary that the 1Y inflation expectations by the University of Michigan may fall below the 2.7-2.8% range seen in May-Oct15. As long as stocks and commodities are weak, markets find it challenging to balance between the ECB looking to step on the gas pedal, and the Fed tapping the brakes.

Market Review November 13, 2015


Bank President Mario Draghi repeated that the ECB’s willingness to expand its bond purchase program and perhaps endorse other measures to fight weak inflation in the Eurozone. Mr. Draghi also said in remarks at the European Parliament in Brussels that the ECB’s asset purchase program “is considered to be a particularly powerful and flexible instrument.” He stressed subdued inflationary pressure and said that economic weakness is still weighing on wage growth “and this could moderate price pressures as we move forward.”

Furthermore, Mr. Draghi said that "downside risks stemming from global growth and trade are clearly visible" in the Euro zone, and added that although a recovery in the Eurozone was "progressing moderately" there were risks posed by the area's "inflation dynamics." Draghi reiterated that the central bank would re-examine its monetary policy at the next meeting on December 3.

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said on Thursday “It is vital for central-bank officials to assess how monetary policy is implemented and transmitted to the broader economy in the wake of the global financial crisis.” Ms. Yellen did not comment on the near-term outlook for the U.S. economy or monetary policy in her brief remarks while last week, she told lawmakers that an increase in short-term interest rates in December was a “live possibility.”

Released from Japan during the Asian session, Revised Industrial Production rose 1.1% beating the estimated 1.0% while Tertiary Industry Activity declined -0.4% versus the estimated 0.2%.

Released during the early European session, French Prelim GDP rose 0.3% while French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls rose 0.1%. Moreover, German Prelim GDP rose 0.3% compared to the previous of 0.4%. EUR/USD rose slightly reaching to the 1.0780 area after dropping to the 1.0690 area.

The key events for the day would be the United States Core Retail Sales, PPI, Retail Sales and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events.

Data releases to monitor:

EUR: Italian Prelim GDP, Flash GDP, Trade Balance.

GBP: CB Leading Index, Construction Output.

CAD: Gov Council Member Wilkins speech.

USD: Core Retail Sales, PPI, Retail Sales, Core PPI, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Business Inventories, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Natural Gas Storage.

CHF: PPI.

Trade Idea of the Day

EUR/USD


Currently the pair is trading at 1.0769. Traders must monitor the 1.0897 resistance level and the support level 1.0674 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.0727 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.0690 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.0812 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.0850 area.

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Financial News November 16, 2015


Daily Economic Outlook: 16th November 2015

The final euro area CPI prints for October and US Empire manufacturing survey will draw markets' attention today. The headline CPI growth of the euro area relapsed into negative territory during September.

"We expect another -0.1% y/y print as downside signals from the latest BRC survey look set to be offset by forecourt prices. Meanwhile, the core rate, which excludes energy and food, is anticipated to edge down to 0.9% y/y from 1.0% in September. After spending linked to the Rugby World Cup propelled headline retail sales to 1.9% m/m (6.5% y/y) in September, we are looking for a flat October reading from Thursday's release. This would still leave annual sales growing by a very healthy 4.9%", says Lloyds Bank.

There is a speculation of the monetary policies of the FOMC and ECB are likely to move in opposite directions in December.

Market Review November 16, 2015


The Japanese economy deteriorated more severely than expected in the third quarter extending a downturn into a second consecutive three-month period and putting the country in technical recession. More specifically, Japanese gross domestic product (GDP) fell by an annualized 0.8% from a year earlier in the September quarter, the second straight decline. A darkening outlook for global growth has put Japanese businesses on the defensive. One concern is China, where growth in Asia’s largest economy is slowing, in some sectors markedly, meaning there is less demand for industrial equipment, construction machinery and other capital goods, much of which has been supplied by producers in Japan. Released also from Japan, Prelim GDP Price Index rose 2.0% versus the estimated 1.7%. USD/JPY is currently trading near the 122.65 area with the next support seen at the 122.22 level.

Elsewhere, global stock markets reacted after the deadliest attacks to hit France since the Second World War. The attacks left more than 100 people dead, dozens injured and left warnings that the terrorist attacks in Paris could spark a renewed session of volatility. The euro fell with French stock-index futures as investors responded to Europe’s worst terror attack in a decade by shifting out of riskier assets. Demand for havens boosted gold, government bonds and the dollar. Europe’s common currency weakened 0.3% and futures on France’s CAC 40 Index sank 1.5% as the violence in Paris on Friday sparked concern that geopolitical tensions will hurt trade and consumer confidence. Chinese shares in Hong Kong paced losses in Asian equity markets after authorities restricted the use of borrowed money to buy shares, while U.S. index futures dropped. Gold advanced the most in a month and Treasuries climbed for a fifth day, while Oil halted two weeks of losses.

The key events for the day would be the Eurozone’s Final CPI, Final Core CPI, ECB President Mario Draghi speech and the Canadian Manufacturing Sales.

Additional economic releases are the Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases, Empire State Manufacturing Index and RBA Assist Gov Kent speech.

Data releases to monitor:

EUR: Final CPI, Final Core CPI, ECB President Draghi Speech, German Buba Monthly Report.

CAD: Manufacturing Sales, Foreign Securities Purchases.

USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index.

AUD: RBA Assist Gov Kent speech.


Trade Idea of the Day

NZD/USD


Currently the pair is trading at 0.6532. Traders must monitor the 0.6624 resistance level and the support level 0.6497 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 0.6560 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 0.6600 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 0.6515 support level, where a break may lead to the 0.6500 area where the support level would be tested.

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Financial News November 17, 2015


EUR/USD likely to trade at 0.95 by Q3 16

TThe poor performance of the Chinese economy is likely to increase downside risks for euro area growth and inflation. Therefore, ECB is likely to respond the down momentum with additional policy easing in the form of a time extension to QE.

Barclays anticipates deposit rate cut of 10 bp. However, a deposit rate cut is likely to build pressure on the EUR. Therefore, EURUSD pair is likely to fall further.

"We forecast EURUSD to depreciate to 1.03 by year-end and trade at 0.95 by Q3 16", argues Barclays.

Market Review November 17, 2015


ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio , during an event in Frankfurt yesterday, warned that the terror attacks in Paris could hit investor confidence in Europe. Moreover, he condemned the “terrible events” in Paris and cautioned that they would compound the problems already facing the region. “Several factors surround what happened and responses are not easy to find because it then compounds on all the problems we were already facing quite recently,” Constancio said. Furthermore, Vice president Constancio noted, “markets are so far taking it calmly,” but warned that it was still too early to know the economic cost of the attacks and added that if they affect consumer and business confidence and risk aversion, “the consequences can of course be worse,” he said. The common currency had seen some down pressure, EUR/USD dropped to the 1.0655 area, while EUR/GBP plunged to the 0.7020 area.

In addition, European equity markets had seen some slight movement. FTSE Eurofirst 300 was little changed compared with Friday’s close, while the French stock market index, the CAC 40, was fractionally down having recovered from a 1 per cent drop at its opening.

The Asian session was rather quiet with no economic few economic releases. Released from New Zealand, longer term inflation expectations weakened marginally, with annual consumers price inflation expected to be 1.85 percent in two years' time, compared with an expectation of 1.94 percent for the same measure in the September survey. NZD/USD is currently trading near the 0.6460 area, with the next support seen at the 0.6286.

The key events for the day would be the United Kingdom inflation data, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core CPI and New Zealand’s GDT Price Index.

Data releases to monitor:

EUR: Italian Trade Balance,German ZEW Economic Sentiment, ZEW Economic Sentiment.

GBP: CPI, PPI Input, RPI, Core CPI, HPI, PPI Output.

USD: CPI, Core CPI, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production, Mortgage Delinquencies, NAHB Housing Market Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases.

NZD: GDT Price Index.

Trade Idea of the Day

AUD/USD


Currently the pair is trading at 0.7082. Traders must monitor the 0.7158 resistance level and the support level 0.7015 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 0.7049 support level, where a break may lead to the 0.7027 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 0.7127 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 0.7150 area.

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Financial News November 18, 2015


Daily Economic Outlook: 18th November, 2015

In the United States, housing starts and building permits will update the performance of housing market. Construction in the U.S. has accelerated as the housing sales have started growing this year.

"After a surge in September, concentrated in the volatile multi-unit sector, starts are expected to have fallen in October. However, a solid rise in permits should point to further construction increases in the pipeline", says Lloyds Bank.

The release of the minutes for the October FOMC meeting is expected to draw markets' attention. Experts are eagerly waiting to know how many members are interested on rate hike in December.

Similarly, minutes of recent Bank of Japan policy meeting will be released tomorrow. As the GDP growth of the economy declined in Q3, which is second consecutive quarterly fall, the BoJ is expected to be under pressure to bring back the economy on track.

Market Review November 18, 2015


Yesterday, data released from the United States showed that the inflation rose slightly, raising the chance of interest rate hike in December. More specifically, the consumer price index rose 0.2% after falling the previous two months. Apart from energy and food, sectors with volatile price changes, U.S. consumer prices rose 1.9 percent over the past year, which is close to the Federal Reserve's target of two percent. The US Dollar remained firm against other majors such us EUR, CHF and JPY, while remained relatively stable against the GBP. EUR/USD extended losses reaching as low as the 1.0630 area, while USD/JPY rose to the 123.48 area. USD/CHF rose to the 1.0150 area and GBP USD remained near the 1.5201 area.

Released from Australia during the Asian session this morning, CB Leading Index declined -0.1% versus the previous of -0.4% while MI Leading Index and Wage Price Index remained flat at 0.1% and 0.6% respectively. AUD/USD is currently trading near the 0.7095 area with the next support seen at the 0.7070 level.

The key event for the day would be released from the United States. FOMC Meeting Minutes will be monitored closely, as information regarding a possible rate hike in December may be revealed from FOMC members.

Additional economic releases would be the United States Building Permits, Housing Starts and FOMC Member Dudley speech.

View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events.

Data releases to monitor:

CHF: ZEW Economic Expectations.

GBP: 10-y Bond Auction.

USD: FOMC Member Dudley speech, Building Permits, Housing Starts, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Meeting Minutes.

NZD: PPI Input, PPI Output.

Trade Idea of the Day

USD/CAD


Currently the pair is trading at 1.3312. Traders must monitor the 1.3369 resistance level and the support level 1.3225 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.3297 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.3270 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.3338 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.3360 area.

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VinsonFinancialsFX

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Financial News November 19, 2015


Daily Economic Outlook: 19th November, 2015

Market will focus on the U.K. October retail sales report. The Headline sales volumes inched up by 1.9% m/m in September. Although the increase was partly added to firm spending related to the Rugby World Cup, other categories also performed strongly, says Lloyds Bank.

The bank expects flat headline sales for the month. The retail indicators for October indicate that annual growth is likely to have eased back significantly.
Today's publication of the October ECB meeting minutes will draw attention of the analysts as the ECB is expected to deliver further policy stimulus in the coming months. At the press conference, President Draghi gave a strong indication that more policy easing is on the table for the next meeting on 3rd December. Ahead of the minutes, comments from ECB council members Weidmann, Coeure and Praet will be closely observed.

In the United States, the Philadelphia Fed survey for November and weekly initial jobless claims will be in focus.

Feds rate hike likely next year

Several FOMC members raised nonstandard reasons for rate hike in December. Analysts suspect pushing the hike into 2016 may increase uncertainty in financial markets.

Members are also seemed to differ over the possibility of inflation level returning to the target level of 2%, and they assume the performance of labor market is not sustainable.

They believe that the PCE inflation will remain below 2% through the end of 2016.
The ongoing global financial and economic developments also drew FOMC's attention. Most of the participants argue the downside risks arising from abroad seem to ease economy is secure now.

"We believe that divisions within the committee and the soft path of inflation we expect early next year will lead to a lower policy path in 2016 than the committee expects; we forecast it will hike only three times in 2016", say Barclays.

Market Review November 19, 2015

After last night’s FOMC minutes the EURUSD moved above 1.0700 level as a result of some profit taking but drop in early European session as the risk appetite increased returned. Fed officials comments hinted that a rate hike could be right around the corner. Furthermore some analyst based on bonds futures pricing predict two hikes during the following months.

USD price action was also pushed by the Bank of Japan that kept monetary policy steady something that was widely expected, despite the country's recent slip into a technical recession. Traders also monitor the ECB minutes release, later today, of its latest policy meeting that may hint what the central bank might do in December.

Additionally last night New Zealand PPI inputs rose 1.6% q/q in Q3 the same thime PPI output rose 1.3% q/q. In Japan Trade Balance came in at -0.2T., Swiss trade balance released at 4.16 billion. Eurozone Current Account announced at 29.4 bilion. Other important releases expect ECB monetary policy meeting for today will be the UK retail sales and Canada wholesale sales. Also we have US Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index that may move the market.

Data releases to monitor:

GBP: Retail Sales m/m, CBI Industrial Order Expectations

EUR: ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

USD: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, CB Leading Index m/m, Natural Gas Storage

CAD: Wholesale Sales m/m

Trade Idea of the Day

EUR/JPY


Currently the pair is trading at 131.55. Traders must monitor the 133.37 resistance level and the support level 130.65 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 131.44 support level, where a break may lead to the 131.15 level and possible below to the 130.80 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 131.94 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 132.30.

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VinsonFinancialsFX

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Financial News November 23, 2015


EUR/USD's further downside likely as December approaches

Markets were further prepared for more policy easing from ECB last week. ECB's President Mario Draghi emphasized his "whatever it takes" commitment again, that it has necessary measures to reach back to the inflation target and start with strong inflation anticipations.

EUR/USD is likely to relatively depreciate towards December, as ECB meeting comes closer, any higher side would be seen as a chance to restart post meeting EUR/USD short positions.

"We continue to expect an extension of the current QE program and a 10bp deposit rate cut to -30bp. Yet, with EONIA forwards pricing more than a 10bp cut in December we see a risk for EUR/USD to squeeze higher should the ECB disappoint", anticipates Barclays.

An unwinding of recent rebound in inflation expectations would be unlikely by ECB and it is also unlikely to squeeze EUR higher, this might tighten the financial conditions through the interest rates and FX channels.

Market Review November 23, 2015

The week started form where the previous one ended. USD open higher as supported by rate hike expectations since the economic data support this and the EUR is pressured by expectations of further stimulus by ECB in December. Draghi noted that the central bank is ready to act swiftly to boost inflation in Eurozone he also hinted there could be changes to the asset purchase program and deposit rate. ECB president had made it clear in the last post meeting press conference that policy makers will re-examine the current stimulus program in the upcoming meeting.

On the data front New Zealand’s Visitor Arrivals m/m announced at 0.2%. In Europe French Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 while French Flash Services PMI at 51.3. German Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.6 German Flash Services PMI at 55.6. Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI data came in at 52.8 and Flash Services PMI at 54.6. From US we expect the Flash Manufacturing PMI to be announced at 54 and Existing Home Sales at 5.39 million. Furthermore today Eurogroup meeting is held traders are advice to be alert for any announcement.


Data releases to monitor:

EUR: Eurogroup Meetings

USD: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Existing Home Sales

Trade Idea of the Day

CAD/JPY


Currently the pair is trading at 91.93. Traders must monitor the 93.10 resistance level and the support level 91.75 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 91.75 support level, where a break may lead to the 91.40 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement above the 92.05 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 92.55.

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VinsonFinancialsFX

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Financial News November 24, 2015


Daily Economic Outlook: 24th November, 2015

The German IFO survey, Bank of England MPC testimonies and the second estimate of US Q3 GDP will draw market attention today. The BoE Governor Carney and Chief Economist Haldane will confirm to the Treasury Select Committee, along with external MPC members Forbes and Vlieghe.

The November Inflation Report was more dovish than expected. The annual CPI inflation was expected to remain below 1% until the second half of next year and coming to target only in late 2017, based on market-implied interest rates, estimates Lloyds Bank.
The U.S. Q3 GDP second estimate is likely to be revised up to around 2% on a qoq annualized basis. The detail should confirm that underlying domestic activity posted a robust growth to warrant a potential rise in policy rates in December. Consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed survey are also expected to release.

A moderate improvement in the German IFO headline index is expected at 108.4, says Lloyds Bank. However, despite the expected increase, the implied pace of growth would be observed as insufficient by the ECB to enable it to meet its inflation mandate.

Market Review November 24, 2015

European Central Bank executive board member Sabine Lautenschläger said on Monday that she does not see a need for the central bank to boost up its stimulus measures, suggesting that if the ECB presses forward with more easy-money policies in December, it will do so without the support of its influential German contingent.

"For me it is clear: At the moment I see no reason for further monetary policy measures, especially not an expansion of the asset-purchase program," Ms. Lautenschläger said in prepared remarks for a conference in Munich.

Her comments come just days after ECB President Mario Draghi sent a strong signal that the ECB was ready to expand its bond-purchase program and reduce its deposit rate further into negative territory at the December policy meeting.

"If we conclude that the balance of risks to our medium-term price stability objective is skewed to the downside, we will act by using all the instruments available within our mandate," he said last Friday. EUR/USD remained near the 1.0640 area, with the next support seen at the 1.0592 level.

Released during the Asian session this morning, Japan’s Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.8 beating the estimated 52.1 and causing insignificant impact on the on the USD/JPY, which is currently trading near the 122.62 area.

Released during the early European session, German Final GDP showed that the German economy have grown by 0.3% in the third quarter, as predicted in an earlier estimate.

The key events for the day would be the German Ifo Business Climate, the United Kingdom Inflation Report Hearings, the United States Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and RBA Gov Stevens speech.


Data releases to monitor:

CHF: Employment Level.

GBP: Inflation Report Hearings, CBI Realized Sales.

USD: Prelim GDP, Goods Trade Balance, Prelim GDP Price Index, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Manufacturing Index.

EUR: German Ifo Business Climate, Belgian NBB Business Climate.

CAD: Gov Council Member Patterson speech.

AUD: RBA Gov Stevens speech.

Trade Idea of the Day

USD/CAD


Currently the pair is trading at 1.3327. Traders must monitor the 1.3435 resistance level and the support level 1.3246 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.3290 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.3260 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.3363 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.3400 area.

24Nov15USDCADH1.png
 

VinsonFinancialsFX

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Financial News November 25, 2015


Daily Economic Outlook: 25th November, 2015

PCE deflator data of the U.S. will draw markets' attention today. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, is likely to increase to 1.4% on the 'core' rate in October, says Lloyds Bank.

This will boost the Fed confidence that inflation is returning to its target level.
The Chancellor's Autumn Statement in U.K. is likely to provide the day's domestic focus. The Autumn Statement provides a scope for a mid-year adjustment.

"Although we expect the Chancellor to claw his way back to the balanced budget objective for 2019/20 - and the OBR to still project a surplus in the final year of the projections in 2020/21 - we look for a cumulative increase in borrowing of around £40bn over the 5-year forecast horizon. The overshoot for 2015/16 should still be sufficiently modest, however, to avoid any meaningful change for the planned gilt issuance in this fiscal year", argues Lloyds Bank.


Market Review November 25, 2015


Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens signalled yesterday, at a business economists forecasting conference in Sydney, that interest rates will stay on hold at next Tuesday's meeting saying the case for leaving them steady was one he "happened to agree with". The RBA had not cut rates even though the economy was growing more slowly than it could and inflation was low. RBA governor also added, “I'm more than content to lower it if that actually helps, but is that the best thing to do at any particular time?” Stevens asked, while replying to a question on the cash rate. In addition, he said, “We've got Christmas. We should just chill out, come back and see what the data says.” The Australian dollar surged to one month high after RBA governor hints no rate cut plan in 2015, AUD/USD rose sharply to the 0.7282 area and currently is trading near the 0.7265 area.

Elsewhere, the BoJ minutes of October 30 noted that some members of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy board believe that an output gap was one reason the country was taking longer to meet inflation targets, minutes of the central bank's latest meeting showed Wednesday. Concerns about the output gap were not shared by the majority, but they highlighted a lingering worry that the delay in Japan meeting the BOJ's 2 percent target meant that its quantitative easing had been ineffective. An output gap is the difference between what an economy is producing and what it could produce if operating at its most efficient. A negative output gap - when a economy is producing less than it could at optimum - indicates weak demand, which in turn can mean low inflation pressure. USD/JPY dropped slightly today and currently is trading near the 122.35 area.

Released during the Asian session this morning, Japan’s SPPI rose 0.5% missing the estimated 0.6% while Australian Construction Work Done declined by -3.6% versus the estimated -1.8%.

The key events for the day would be the United Kingdom Autumn Forecast Statement and BBA Mortgage Approvals, the United States Core Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims and New Zealand’s Trade Balance.


Data releases to monitor:

NZD: Trade Balance.

GBP: BBA Mortgage Approvals, Autumn Forecast Statement.

USD: Core Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims, Core PCE Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Spending, Personal Income, HPI, Flash Services PMI, New Home Sales, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Crude Oil Inventories, Natural Gas Storage.

EUR: Italian Retail Sales, German 10-y Bond Auction.

AUD: RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech.

Trade Idea of the Day

USD/CHF


Currently the pair is trading at 1.0164. Traders must monitor the 1.0225 resistance level and the support level 1.0091 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.0142 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.0115 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.0196 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.0215 area.

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VinsonFinancialsFX

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Financial News November 26, 2015


Daily Economic Outlook: 26th November, 2015

Japan's October CPI and labor market data will draw market attention today. In the last policy meeting, BoJ did not make any change on broad assessment of inflation expectations. The headline CPI is priced to stay in negative territory at -0.1% y/y for October, foresees Lloyds Bank.

It also anticipates some modest policy easing by BoJ in October to 0.8% from 0.9%.
In the euro area, ECB's easing in credit conditions supports the economic activity of the region. In the past couple of months, a weaker pace is observed in the growth of annual money supply in the euro area. The consumer spending in German is supported by solid consumer confidence.

"Since hitting a thirteen year high in June, the GfK measure of German consumer confidence has weakened in recent months and a further easing is expected in the reading for December. However, it still remains elevated and points to the prospect of further gains in German consumer activity", added Lloyds Bank.


Market Review November 26, 2015


Australian business investment plunged during the third quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showed today. In the three months to September, capital expenditure fell a staggering 9.2%. It came as a huge shock to most economists as many were expecting a decline of just 2.9%. More specifically, total investment amounted to just $31.4 billion in Q3, while business spending declined by 20% compared to last year. The latest economic figures from Australia will put pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates again, which contradicts with the latest comments of the RBA governor Glenn Stevens who suggested to ‘chill out’ on prospects for interest rate cuts. The Australian dollar wiped out some of yesterday’s gains against the US Dollar and fell to the 0.7220 area, after reaching to the 0.7282 area.

Reuters news agency reported yesterday that Euro zone central bank officials are considering options such as whether to stagger charges on banks hoarding cash or to buy more debt ahead of the next European Central Bank meeting. Furthermore, some ECB officials said that “even buying rebounded loans at risk of non-payment has been discussed in preparatory meetings, although such a radical step is highly unlikely for now”. The meeting of the ECB's monetary policy committee next Tuesday (December 3) is firmly in focus, with expectations that the central bank could introduce more stimulus measures to revive inflation and boost growth in the region. The Euro dropped to a more than seven-month low of $1.0565 on Wednesday as speculation mounted over what form the stimulus might take.

The day is expected to be quiet, as the US banks will be closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day. The key events for the day would be the ECB M3 Money Supply, GfK German Consumer Climate and Private Loans.


Data releases to monitor:

EUR: M3 Money Supply, Private Loans, GfK German Consumer Climate.

CAD: Corporate Profits.

Trade Idea of the Day

GBP/JPY


Currently the pair is trading at 185.09. Traders must monitor the 187.00 resistance level and the support level 183.85 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 184.90 support level, where a break may lead above the 184.30 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 186.00 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 186.00.

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