Daily Technical Analysis EUR/USD by OnEquity

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Bearish Momentum May Last
The EUR/USD is expected to remain under pressure with signs of moderation in the coming days due to the amount of data to be released this week, especially today, Wednesday, when the Eurozone PPI and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and subsequent statement will be released. The EUR/USD has lost ground this week from its July high of 1.0948 and has now had three straight weeks of declines.

s for the outlook for the currency pair, we expect a slight pullback to near the 50-day moving average at 1.0811 over the next few days. Additionally, this is the possible location for the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the high to the 2024 low.

In technical terms, a break of the EUR/USD exchange rate support level at 1.0780 would give the bears control over the trend.

This week, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will be in the spotlight, especially today, Wednesday, as inflation-related figures were released yesterday, primarily from Germany.

With the European Central Bank expected to cut interest rates again in September, it would take a major new data release to have a long-lasting impact on the Euro. Conversely, this week’s volatility will likely be driven by the dollar. The Federal Reserve will make its policy decision later today. Additionally, it seems that there will be no change in US rates.

Expectations are for an expansionary stance in line with estimates for the first interest rate cut in September. Currently, the market seems predisposed to such an outcome, which would translate into the dollar rising if the Fed leaves any doubt about whether it will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September. Additionally, the Fed is expected to continue its strategy of highlighting concerns that keeping interest rates unchanged for an extended period could significantly impact the labor market.

This is consistent with the Fed’s statement that it believes it can afford to cut US interest rates before inflation falls to its 2% target. On Friday, the most notable event for the dollar will be the release of the US employment report. If the data falls below expectations, the market will anticipate further easing of Fed monetary policy in the months ahead, which will weigh on the dollar.

July US nonfarm payrolls are expected to show an increase of 178,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. In June, the figure was higher than expected, at +206,000 jobs.

EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for July 31st:​

There is no change in our technical view on the performance of the euro against the dollar. The overall trend remains bearish, and a break of the 1.0800 support is feasible, which will consolidate control by the bears, potentially leading to further losses.

Technical indicators will move towards strong oversold levels on the daily chart if the euro/dollar price approaches the support levels of approximately 1.0735 and 1.0600. For the same time frame, the psychological resistance 1.1000 will continue to have the most relevance for the upward shift of the overall trend.

 

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Ahead of 1.0900 as Weak NFP Data Weighs on the Dollar

The EUR/USD extended its rally near the 1.0915 level at the start of the Asian session on Monday. The price rise is favored by the weakening of the dollar after poor employment data in the United States. Market traders will pay special attention to the German HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) along with the Eurozone PMI, in addition to the ISM Services PMI in the United States, which will be released later today and is expected to affect the EUR/USD pair, especially on the dollar side.

The slowdown in employment growth and the increase in the US unemployment rate heightened fears of a deeper economic slowdown and weighed on the dollar (USD) across the board. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) increased by 114,000 in July, down from 179,000 in June and below forecasts of 185,000, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021.

Despite some fears of a U.S. recession, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated last week that the central bank’s confidence in the “solid” economy and easing inflation data is helping to provide further confidence that the U.S. central bank can cut interest rates very soon. Financial markets, for their part, have fully discounted a rate cut of less than 25 basis points for the three meetings remaining this year, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Across the ocean, high inflation and sustained growth in the Eurozone economy caused market expectations to increase for more interest rate cuts this year. The headline HICP rose to 2.6% y-o-y during July, above economists’ consensus of 2.4%. The underlying HICP, which does not take into account volatiles such as food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, rose at a steady 2.9% compared to expectations of 2.8%.

EUR/USD daily technical analysis for August 5th:​

For EUR/USD, the break of the 1.0800 support will continue to be the key point for the bears to move noticeably lower. The ISM Services PMI in the US may extend this downtrend. That said, nearby support levels will be 1.0720 and 1.0600. From the latter level, technical indicators may degrade to oversold levels. On the other hand, the psychological resistance at 1.1000 will remain the most important if the bulls want to regain trend control of the pair.

 

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EUR/USD declines, fails to hold 1.10 level
The EUR/USD pared its recent gains and retreated from the 1.1000 level on Tuesday as markets continue to digest a recent rebalancing in Forex market flows. Investors have possibly regained equilibrium and have once again returned to betting on an increase in the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September. Tuesday’s euro zone economic data had a slight impact on the market and Wednesday’s data will be released on the average level.

Pan-European retail sales contracted by -0.3% y-o-y in June, below estimates of 0.1% and down from a revised 0.5% in the year-ago period. German industrial production figures will be released on Wednesday, which are expected to rebound to 1% month-on-month growth in June from the previous period’s contraction of -2.5%.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, investors are looking at a two-to-one chance of a double 50 basis point cut when the Federal Open Market Committee announces its interest rate decision on September 18. Currently, with the cut in place, the rate markets see zero chance of the Fed keeping rates unchanged for this year, with a total of four estimated quarter-point cuts for the latter part of the year.

During this week, watch for any news from Fed policymakers pointing to the desirability of accelerating interest rate cuts in the United States. This would boost the euro.

EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for August of 7th:​

According to the daily chart, the uptrend in the EUR/USD remains in place. Selling from above is the best trading strategy. Obviously, selling above the psychological resistance at 1,000 is the best. The trend of the euro against the dollar today will be conditioned by the prospects of future signs of economic recession in the United States that may be announced by the heads of central banks around the world. On the other hand, and according to the daily chart, the 1.0820 support level will continue to be relevant for the bears to regain control of the trend.

 

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Daily Technical Analysis EUR/USD: Rallies Above 1.0900, Upside Limited by Middle East Tensions
This week, investors will be focused on new inflation data, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States on Tuesday and Wednesday. Retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index will also be released this week. Core PPI inflation and headline CPI inflation remain steady around 3% y/y, and investors expect the data to support expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

That said, the EUR/USD has halted its streak of four straight days of losses and is trading near 1.0920 in the Asian session on Monday. Traders are also awaiting preliminary Eurozone Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which is due on Wednesday.

The euro, a risk-sensitive currency, could come under pressure due to the scale of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On Sunday, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that Iran’s military actions appear to be preparing for a full-scale attack on Israel. This action would be in retaliation for the reported assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital in late July, according to Barak Ravid, editor of Axios.

Regarding the dollar, investors will likely focus on U.S. producer inflation data due Tuesday and consumer inflation figures due Wednesday. Traders are looking for confirmation that price growth remains stable.

Expectations of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September could put pressure on the US dollar, which could support the EUR/USD. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, it indicates a 51.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next month’s meeting, a considerable increase from the 26% chance recorded last week.

EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for August 12th:​

The EUR/USD pair remains in a neutral pattern, and a bullish bias would be reinforced if it breaks back above the psychological resistance at 1.1000. On the other hand, according to the behavior on the daily chart, a return to the 1.0820 support zone will be important for the bears to regain control of the trend. Consequently, it is still preferable to sell the currency pair at higher levels.

 

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Daily Technical Analysis EUR/USD: The pair moves amid dollar weakness
EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, supported by a broad-based weakening in U.S. dollar bids as U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation appeared to be cooling faster than expected. Traders continue to await EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures, due in early European trading hours on Wednesday. Meanwhile, investors will turn their attention to upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures as risk appetite expands in recovery mode.

Eurozone GDP for the second quarter is expected to remain at previous figures of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 0.6% year-on-year. Although no change is expected, a sharp deviation in either direction could generate a new round of risk-off selling in Euro markets if the number is low, or reinforce the current bullish stance if growth shows signs of picking up.

U.S. CPI inflation is expected to continue showing signs of cooling in July, with markets anticipating core CPI for the year ending in July to decline to 3.2% from 3.3% last year. Headline CPI is expected to follow the same trend, with median market estimates predicting a decline to 2.9% y-o-y from 3.0% previously.

U.S. PPI inflation fell to 2.2% y-o-y in July, down from the 2.3% estimate and further down from the revised 2.7% in the previous period. Core PPI inflation also fell to 2.4% y-o-y in July, down from an estimated 2.7% and further down from 3.0%. The continued decline in U.S. inflation pressure reinforced risk appetite during the U.S. stock market session, and market bets on a double 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased to 55%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for August 14th:​

Despite recovering on Tuesday, EUR/USD remains stuck below the previous week’s high, just above 1.1000. Bullish momentum may continue to drive intraday price action higher, but technical fragility poses a real risk as EUR/USD struggles to gain long-term traction ahead of the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 1.0820.

 

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Daily Technical Analysis EUR/USD: the pair is moving towards the 1.1050 level.
The EUR/USD extended its gains for the second session in a row, touching the 1.1030 level in Asian trading on Monday. The pair’s rise could be the result of increased chances of an interest rate cut in September by the Federal Reserve.

Last week, U.S. economic data showed that retail sales beat estimates, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation is on a downward trajectory. Additionally, U.S. housing starts fell nearly 6.8% in the month of July to 1.238 million units, following a 1.1% increase in June, which appears to be the lowest level since 2020. This decline has heightened fears about the resilience of the economy, particularly in light of recent more relaxed reports on inflation and labor.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly remarked Sunday that the central bank should adopt an approach that is gradual if borrowing costs are to be reduced, according to. Financial Times. Daly expressed her opposition to economists’ concerns that the U.S. economy is close to a sharp slowdown that would justify rapid interest rate cuts.

Similarly, Chicago Fed Board of Governors President Austan Goolsbee said central bankers should be cautious about maintaining a tightening-based policy longer than previously thought. Although it is not known whether the Fed will cut interest rates next month, failure to do so could be harmful to the labor market, according to CNBC.

In Europe, investors expect the European Central Bank to gradually cut interest rates. Monetary policymakers have been hesitant to commit to a new path of rate cuts because they are concerned that price pressures could reaccelerate.

EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for August 19th:​

The pair is currently trading above the psychological resistance at 1.1000 will serve as support for bull control in the broader trend. Consequently, if gains increase to 1.1060 and 1.1120 levels, technical indicators may move to strong overbought levels. Above those levels, it may be best to sell. On the other hand, according to the behavior on the daily chart, the 1.0820 support level will remain perhaps the most relevant to end the uptrend.

 

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Daily Technical Analysis EUR/USD: The Pair Rises Nearly 1% This Week Ahead of Jackson Hole
The most important event this week is the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak publicly on Friday. At the same time, the market will focus on whether expectations of a 100 basis point rate cut by the central bank this year will be confirmed. Another factor that could become more favorable for the Euro and detrimental to the Dollar in the coming days, weeks, and months is the latest developments in the US election polls, which now seem to indicate that the Democratic Party candidate, Kamala Harris, is ahead of former President and Republican Party candidate Donald Trump in several key swing states.

On Tuesday, EUR/USD rose 0.4% and broke above 1.1100 for the first time since December 2023, reaching a new high for 2024. EUR/USD has now been in positive territory for three straight days and appears to be on track for a 1% gain since the market opened on Monday.

Early Thursday, the results of the pan-European Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey will be released, with the August Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs expected to hold steady at 45.8 and 51.9, respectively.

Thursday will bring the results of the U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) business activity survey, as well as the start of the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, which will extend through the weekend. The minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting are due to be released on Wednesday, although markets will generally be fully focused on Thursday’s releases, looking for reasons or signals to move the market.

The U.S. manufacturing PMI is expected to hold steady at 49.6 for the month of August, while the services PMI is expected to drop one point to around 54.0 from 55.0. The start of the Jackson Hole Symposium is expected to draw much of investors’ attention on Thursday, although it is worth noting that Friday’s appearance by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will likely indicate the overall market outlook for the week ahead.

EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for August 21th:​

EUR/USD has made a new high for 2024, breaking above 1.3050, as markets sell the US dollar in the short term on a general level, rather than for any specific reason related to the single currency’s rise in price. It must be noted that EUR/USD has closed in the green for all but one of the last seven trading days and is in a bullish zone above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.0835.

However, the long-term consolidation range is strong on the technical charts, and a sharp reversal could trigger a move back below 1.1000.

 

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Daily Technical Analysis EUR/USD: Moves Up to Around 1.1200 on Powell’s Conservative Fed Stance
The EUR/USD is extending its gains for the second session in a row, trading around 1.1190 during the Asian session on Monday. This rise in EUR/USD follows the weaker US dollar after the Fed Chairman’s dovish-sounding speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said, “The time has come to tighten policy.” Although Powell did not indicate when the rate cuts will begin or their extent, markets are anticipating that the Fed will announce a rate cut of about 25 basis points at next month’s meeting.

Similarly, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker stressed on Friday the need for the Fed to lower interest rates gradually. Conversely, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized that monetary policy is at its most restrictive and that the Fed is focused on fulfilling its employment mandate.

Regarding the eurozone, Olli Rehn, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, said on Friday that slowing inflation and a weak economy in the zone strengthen the case for lower borrowing costs next month, according to Bloomberg. Growth estimates for Europe, particularly in the manufacturing sector, are highly subdued, further strengthening the case for a rate cut in September.

Additionally, Jane Foley, currency strategist at Rabobank, highlighted on Friday that the EUR/USD is expected to trade at 1.1200 on a three-month horizon. Foley added that the recent breakout and the start of a new Fed policy cycle seem to indicate a new trading range may be forming. However, she also stated that if key US data released in early September is stronger than market estimates, it could lead to potential pullbacks to around 1.1000 for the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for August 26th:​

Bids in EUR/USD remain bullish after the pair managed to bounce from the last swing low at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0850. In the absence of a significant break above 1.1300, investor short interest could once again push prices lower in the near term.

We will also need to closely watch how the pair trades at the start of the week following the Fed’s statements and their potential impact on Europe.

 

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Daily Technical Analysis EUR/USD: A Deeper Upward Momentum Is Expected
The EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, benefiting from the continued easing in the markets relative to the U.S. dollar. The pair returned to recent highs after the week began with a small retracement of recent gains, although a new round of risk-on sentiment in the market pushed bids back to those levels. Despite this, EUR/USD continues to be trapped below 1.1200 as Eurozone bulls struggle to instill confidence in the Fib hike.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appears to have confirmed that the U.S. central bank will begin a rate-cutting cycle on September 18 during his speech last Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium, causing market appetite to soar again.

On the euro side, the economic agenda is filled with relatively unimportant news, and Wednesday is shaping up to be a quiet session in both Europe and the United States. Investors will be watching for a speech by Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, in the early hours of the U.S. session, while central bank watchers are also looking for headlines from the European Union’s Eurogroup meeting scheduled during the European session.

The European Union’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices inflation figures for August will be released early Friday, and Eurozone price growth is expected to fall to 2.8% year-over-year from 2.9%, as inflation pressures continue to ease, although not as quickly as European Central Bank policymakers had hoped.

Also on Thursday, U.S. gross domestic product figures for the second quarter will be released, expected to remain unchanged at 2.8% year-over-year. However, the key data of the week is the Personal Consumption Price Index for July, which is expected to rise from 2.6% year-over-year to 2.7% year-over-year and remain unchanged at 0.2% month-over-month. Market participants, motivated by hopes for rate cuts, believe that the inflation data will come in below estimates, while an above-estimated figure could create nervousness in investors’ risk appetite.

EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for August 28th​

The EUR/USD is on track for its best monthly performance since November 2022, up more than 3.1% in the month of August alone. Despite the early pullback due to technical exhaustion this week, the Fib has managed to gain ground for four straight trading weeks and is pushing above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0832.

Unlike a healthy bid into bullish territory, the Fib is very vulnerable to a bearish pullback, and the absence of upside momentum could see prices pull back to the 50-day EMA at 1.0925.

 

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Daily Technical Analysis EUR/USD: Rises to Near 1.1050 on Fed’s Dovish Tone

The EUR/USD breaks its three-day losing streak and trades around 1.1050 during the Asian session on Monday. The rise in the EUR/USD could be a consequence of the U.S. dollar’s lukewarmness following the negative sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve. However, the July Personal Consumption Expenditures index may have supported the dollar and prevented the pair from rising further.

On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures index increased by 2.5% year-over-year in July, matching the previous reading of 2.5% but below the forecast of 2.6%. On the other hand, the core PCE, which excludes volatile prices such as food and energy, increased by 2.6% year-over-year in July, in line with the previous figure of 2.6% but slightly below the consensus forecast of 2.7%.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets fully anticipate at least a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed at its meeting this month. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, one of the Federal Open Market Committee’s top hawks, signaled last week that the time may be ripe for a rate cut as a result of cooling inflation and a higher-than-expected unemployment rate.

François Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council, said on Friday, according to Bloomberg, that there are “good reasons” why the central bank should consider cutting interest rates in September. Villeroy de Galhau proposed action at the next meeting on September 12, noting that it would be fair and cautious to decide on a further rate cut.

EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for September 2nd:​

After breaking its streak of losses over three straight days, it is now trading near 1.1050. It remains to be seen if the negative sentiment surrounding the Fed will become more pronounced when the stock market opens in the U.S.

The pair is likely to move more on the side of the U.S. dollar this week as the release of Non-Farm Payrolls and labor market-related data approaches. We will have to wait and see how the dollar reacts and whether oversold options are generated or if buying positions are secured.

We will see if the pair can return to higher levels this week near 1.105. A notable fact is that Labor Day is celebrated this Monday, so movement from the dollar side is likely to be minimal.

 

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Daily Technical Analysis EUR/USD: Pair Seeks Support on Downward Pressure
The EUR/USD pair tilted lower during the day on Tuesday, with intraday bids at two-week lows before the day’s session closed near 1.1050. Price action remains limited as markets are bracing for a final US Non-Farm Payrolls release this week, although a missed Purchasing Managers’ Index figure appears to have revived fears of an impending recession.

Significant European data remains limited in the first half of the trading week, and on Thursday, Fiber traders may be busy with a pan-European retail sales update for July, followed by U.S. labor data estimates ahead of Friday’s NFP jobs release.

July pan-European retail sales are expected to rebound slightly, with an estimated 0.1% y/y compared to last period’s -0.3% decline. Gross Domestic Product figures for Europe will also be released on Friday, with growth expected to remain unchanged from last quarter’s figures.

The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI for August came in below estimates at 47.2 points, under the market’s consensus forecast of 47.5 points. Although there was a slight rebound from July’s multi-month low of 46.8, it failed to galvanize the markets, giving investors the opportunity to pull back from a recent bullish tilt.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will be released, marking the last round of key U.S. jobs data before the Federal Reserve announces its latest interest rate decision on September 18. The Non-Farm Payrolls report is expected to set the tone for market estimates regarding the depth of a Fed rate cut, as investors assume the start of a new rate-cutting cycle this month.

EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for September 4th:​

FFiber prices have once again plunged into short-term technical hurdles, although traders continue to emerge in an effort to maintain balanced bidding, even if they fail to achieve a bullish recovery. EUR/USD set a 13-month high just above 1.1200 early last week, and a short-term pullback in the greenback’s moves has traders scrambling to maintain the bullish role on the charts.

The pair continues to trade north of the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.0845. At the same time, despite remaining in the bullish zone, EUR/USD continues to face an increasingly sharp bearish pullback as shorts concentrate their positions on targets just above the 50-day EMA at 1.0956.

 

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Daily technical analysis EUR/USD: EUR/USD trades below 1.100 on the back of possible ECB rate cuts
The EUR/USD is trying its best to recover last session’s losses and is trading around 1.090 during Monday’s Asian session. However, the EUR/USD’s gains could be limited as recent Eurozone inflation data has strengthened expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its next meeting.

With headline inflation close to 2% and longer-term inflation estimates remaining around the same level, the ECB has sufficient justification to continue easing monetary policy. In addition, mixed Eurozone Gross Domestic Product data in the previous week has reinforced expectations of a possible rate cut by the ECB.

On Friday, U.S. economic data increased uncertainty about the likelihood of an aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls added 142,000 jobs in August, below the estimate of 160,000, although an improvement from July’s downwardly revised figure of 89,000 jobs. On the other hand, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, as estimated, compared to last month.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets fully anticipate at least a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting. The likelihood of a 50 basis point cut has declined slightly to 29.0%, down from 30.0% compared to a week ago.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee mentioned on Friday that Fed officials are beginning to align with the general market view that an interest rate tightening by the Fed is imminent, as reported by CNBC.

EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for September 9th:​

The speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.10050 to 1.12300.

The EUR/USD price has risen quite considerably since the end of June, although not without difficulty. Financial institutions have undoubtedly opted for a looser US Fed. However, the fear of a tightening of the Fed’s rate policy has been highlighted by the nervousness seen in many assets over the past week. Many analysts doubt a slowdown in the US economy.

Early trading this week is likely to be brisk, although if the EUR/USD manages to hold the support levels seen last week, this may be an indication that they believe the currency pair has reached a solid base and may be willing to try for slightly higher values if the ECB and Fed adapt to a more dovish stance.

 

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Daily technical analysis EUR/USD: losing ground on German inflation and ECB rate cuts
The EUR/USD retreated on Tuesday after the latest inflation report in one of the eurozone’s most important economies, Germany, raised the possibility of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank.

The EUR/USD slipped to 1.1021, as the decline in German inflation serves to fuel expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB next Thursday.

Wall Street ended the session with positive numbers, while the U.S. dollar remains flat. European session data indicated that inflation in Germany fell to its lowest level in more than three years, as the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices came in at 2%, the ECB’s target level.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank is forecast to lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point, although, according to analysts at BBH, the central bank would emphasize that it will keep monetary policy tight for as long as needed.

In addition, the ECB is expected to update its economic estimates, which include a downward revision to economic growth along with inflation. FX traders continue to bet on cuts between 50 and 75 basis points through the end of the year.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the week, the consumer price index for August in the U.S. is expected to be close to the Fed’s target of 2%. A lower-than-expected CPI report could increase the chances of the Fed easing interest rates by 50 basis points, even though most analysts believe that the Fed will tighten policy gradually.

CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that the chances of a 25 basis point rate cut are 70%, while the chances of a 50 basis point rate cut are 30%.

EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for September 10th:​

In technical terms, EUR/USD is neutral with a possible bullish bias. However, a sharp break below the September 3 low at 1.1026 could open the door to further declines. Key support levels will remain exposed, such as the 1.1000 level, followed by the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 1.0958. A break of this level could lead to a test of the convergence of the 100 and 200 DMA around 1.0867/58, before heading to the August 1 low at 1.0777.

To resume the uptrend, investors would need to break above the September 9 high at 1.1091.