Daily Global Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

Markets Brace for ECB Decision (09.09.2026)​

Rising energy prices and tighter policy expectations remain key market drivers as Middle East tensions continue to support commodities. Gold is hovering near $4,400, Bitcoin around $79,000, while the US 100 has softened and the euro is holding near $1.1630 ahead of the ECB decision.

Attention will then shift to US PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday, both of which could reshape expectations for next week’s Fed meeting. Meanwhile, the yen has strengthened toward 153 per dollar as BOJ tightening bets, short covering and capital repatriation fuel a broader carry-trade unwind.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro traded around 1.1630 as attention turned to Thursday’s ECB decision, with higher oil prices adding to inflation pressure. A rate hike is expected this week, while another increase by year-end is priced in with near certainty.
• The yen strengthened toward 153 per dollar, staying close to a seven-month high after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned against shorting the currency. The former hedge fund manager said he has “pretty good insight” into the BOJ’s likely moves when assessing the yen and possible intervention.
• The British pound traded stably just above $1.35 as persistent inflation worries strengthened expectations for additional Bank of England rate increases. Energy markets experienced sharp gains, with Brent crude nearing $100 per barrel and UK natural gas reaching multi-year highs.
• The offshore yuan traded near 6.70 per dollar, its strongest level since January 2023, as it gained appeal as a funding currency for carry trades. Recent yen strength has encouraged a shift toward alternatives such as the yuan, helped by China’s relatively low interest rates and currency stability.
• Gold struggled near $4,400 as higher oil prices strengthened expectations that major central banks could raise rates this month. The probability of a Fed hike next week is around 60%, while the ECB and BOJ are also expected to tighten.
• Silver traded near $66.6 an ounce on Wednesday following two sessions of decline, as elevated energy costs heightened inflation concerns and reinforced expectations for additional rate hikes.
• Bitcoin traded at $78,669, up 0.29% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency has gained 23.09% over the past month but is still down 30.98% year-on-year. Forecasts point to $80,762 by quarter-end and $90,339 within a year.
• Brent climbed above $99 a barrel, its highest level in nearly seven weeks and close to the $100 mark, after the US targeted several Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, a major oil export hub. The attacks raised concerns over possible disruptions to global oil supplies.

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[Z Forex]

Gold is trading around $4,412, with Middle East tensions and oil above $100 keeping safe-haven demand elevated. However, the same energy shock could reinforce inflation concerns and keep yields supported, which may limit the upside.

Technically, gold remains above the $4,350–4,370 support area, keeping the broader structure mildly constructive. Momentum is still soft, though, and $4,600 remains the key resistance. A break above that level would strengthen the bullish case, while a move below $4,350 could reopen the downside.

 

[Z Forex]

Euro Gains Ahead of ECB Decision (09.10.2026)​

Europe could get another rate hike today, as higher oil prices make the ECB’s inflation challenge harder. A further increase by year-end is priced in with near certainty, even as policymakers stick to a data-dependent path.

US PPI is due later today, followed by CPI on Friday, putting the Fed outlook back in play. Gold is holding near $4,400, while the US 100 has slipped 0.29% to 29,258 as rate uncertainty weighs on tech.

Brent is holding near $101, close to its highest since May, as the US-Iran conflict raises the risk of further supply disruptions. Higher oil prices add another inflation challenge as major central banks consider tighter policy.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro edged up to 1.164, its highest since late August, before Thursday’s ECB policy decision. A rate hike is expected by many, with policymakers likely to maintain a data-dependent stance as the conflict involving Iran fails to clear the air for the inflation outlook.
• The yen traded around 153.4 per dollar, close to a seven-month high as expectations build for a BOJ rate hike next week. The central bank is predicted to raise its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest in about 31 years, following its June increase.
• The British pound rose toward $1.354, sustained by expanding expectations that the Bank of England will pursue additional interest rate increases to counter mounting inflation.
• The offshore yuan held near 6.7063 per dollar, its strongest level since early 2023, as demand for the currency as a carry-trade funding option grew. With the yen strengthening sharply, the yuan has gained appeal as an alternative due to China’s low interest rates and relatively stable currency.
• Gold traded around $4,400 per ounce, holding recent gains before key US inflation releases that could shape the Fed outlook. August PPI is due later today, followed by the latest consumer inflation data on Friday.
• Silver traded above $67 per ounce on Thursday, maintaining recent gains while investors focused on key US inflation reports that could shape future Federal Reserve policy. The August producer price index arrives later today, followed by consumer inflation figures scheduled for release on Friday.
• Bitcoin traded at $78,402, up 0.18% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency has gained 23.37% over the past month but is still 32.14% lower year-on-year. Forecasts point to $80,762 by quarter-end and $90,339 within a year.
• Brent held around $101 a barrel, close to its highest level since May, as US-Iran tensions raised the risk of further Middle East supply disruptions. Tehran said it was prepared to intensify the conflict, challenge the US naval blockade and increase attacks if US forces continue targeting Iranian territory.
• Nasdaq fell 86 points to 29,258. The index has declined 0.91% over the past four weeks but is still up 21.95% over the past 12 months. Forecasts point to 28,915 by quarter-end and 27,106 within a year.

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[Z Forex]

Fed Hike Debate: Inflation Is More Than Demand​

The Fed faces another difficult decision as August CPI approaches. Markets increasingly expect another hike, but inflation is being driven by more than strong demand.

Higher energy prices, tariffs, and AI-related technology and infrastructure demand are adding price pressure. Higher rates cannot increase oil supply, reverse tariffs, or solve semiconductor shortages. Instead, they mainly weaken housing, consumption, and investment.

A hot CPI reading could strengthen the higher-for-longer outlook, lift Treasury yields, pressure risk assets, and increase volatility in gold and the dollar.

To summarize, Friday's CPI could strengthen the case for another Fed hike.

 

[Z Forex]

Fed Hike Debate: Inflation Is More Than Demand​

The Fed faces another difficult decision as August CPI approaches. Markets increasingly expect another hike, but inflation is being driven by more than strong demand.

Higher energy prices, tariffs, and AI-related technology and infrastructure demand are adding price pressure. Higher rates cannot increase oil supply, reverse tariffs, or solve semiconductor shortages. Instead, they mainly weaken housing, consumption, and investment.

A hot CPI reading could strengthen the higher-for-longer outlook, lift Treasury yields, pressure risk assets, and increase volatility in gold and the dollar.

To summarize, Friday's CPI could strengthen the case for another Fed hike.

 

[Z Forex]

Hot US Inflation and Oil Pressure Markets (09.11.2026)​

Inflation and interest rate expectations took center stage as surging energy costs and stronger U.S. producer prices reshaped the policy outlook. The dollar index held above 99 as surprisingly hotter U.S. producer inflation pushed Fed rate hike odds to 71%.

US stock futures were little changed Friday after the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell for a fourth straight session on higher oil and Treasury yields. August CPI is next after stronger producer inflation, driven by Iran war energy costs, pushed Fed hike odds to 71%. Oracle gained more than 4% after hours on strong earnings, while Adobe fell over 2% on weak guidance.

The dollar stayed above 99 before CPI, supported by stronger Fed hike expectations and rising Treasury yields. Oil surged past $100 as the US-Iran conflict showed no signs of easing, raising the risk of prolonged supply disruptions and further inflation pressure.

The US 10-year yield reached 4.97%, its highest since 2023, after a $5.2 billion Treasury buyback fell short of the $6 billion cap. Hot August PPI and oil above $100 added to the selloff, reinforcing the 71% probability of a Fed hike.

Japan’s 10-year yield climbed to 2.99%, near 30-year highs, tracking the US bond selloff as higher oil added another inflation risk. Japanese PPI rose 7.6%, while manufacturer sentiment reached its strongest since Q4 2021, reinforcing BOJ hike expectations after Masu signaled further tightening.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro slipped toward 1.16 after the ECB delivered its second hike since the US-Iran war began and raised its inflation and growth forecasts. The dollar held firm after strong US PPI pushed Fed hike odds above 70%.
• The yen weakened past 154 per dollar, retreating from near seven-month highs as US PPI strengthened the dollar and raised Fed hike bets. The yen is still up more than 3% this month, supported by rate bets, carry trade unwinding and capital repatriation.
• The British pound declined to 1.3510, pressured by growing policy divergence. Strong US producer price data lifted Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, while Bank of England leadership signaled caution. Brent crude exceeding $105 amid Middle East supply disruptions further strained the UK economy.
• USD/CNY traded near 6.7112, close to a nearly one-year low, as the yuan held firm despite surging US Treasury yields that typically support the dollar. The PBOC set its reference rate at 6.7743, balancing import inflation against export competitiveness.
• Gold traded near $4,400 an ounce after falling around 2%, with CPI next in line to test Fed hike expectations after hotter PPI lifted the odds to 71%. Bullion is heading for a third straight weekly decline, down more than 2%.
• Silver traded near $64 on Friday after dropping over 5% in the previous session, as traders awaited incoming US consumer inflation data. Stronger producer price figures recently pushed Fed rate hike probabilities to 71%.
• Bitcoin traded near $76,811 after touching an intraday low of $76,676, as oil above $100 and surging US Treasury yields strengthened expectations for a Fed hike. Strong PPI and today’s CPI release have pushed hike odds to 60–76%, weighing on crypto despite $3.8 billion of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows over the past three weeks.
• Brent climbed above $108, up around 12% this week and heading for its biggest weekly gain since mid-July as the US-Iran conflict intensified. Officials reportedly warned Trump that the war could last through his term, while Iran signaled its intention to keep fighting and claimed to have rebuilt its missile capacity.
• The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.08% to 29,103.51, extending its losing streak to four sessions as oil above $100 and Treasury yields at multiyear highs pressured tech and growth stocks.

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