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Markets Brace for ECB Decision (09.09.2026)
Rising energy prices and tighter policy expectations remain key market drivers as Middle East tensions continue to support commodities. Gold is hovering near $4,400, Bitcoin around $79,000, while the US 100 has softened and the euro is holding near $1.1630 ahead of the ECB decision.Attention will then shift to US PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday, both of which could reshape expectations for next week’s Fed meeting. Meanwhile, the yen has strengthened toward 153 per dollar as BOJ tightening bets, short covering and capital repatriation fuel a broader carry-trade unwind.
Economic Calendar
- The euro traded around 1.1630 as attention turned to Thursday’s ECB decision, with higher oil prices adding to inflation pressure. A rate hike is expected this week, while another increase by year-end is priced in with near certainty.
- The yen strengthened toward 153 per dollar, staying close to a seven-month high after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned against shorting the currency. The former hedge fund manager said he has “pretty good insight” into the BOJ’s likely moves when assessing the yen and possible intervention.
- The British pound traded stably just above $1.35 as persistent inflation worries strengthened expectations for additional Bank of England rate increases. Energy markets experienced sharp gains, with Brent crude nearing $100 per barrel and UK natural gas reaching multi-year highs.
- The offshore yuan traded near 6.70 per dollar, its strongest level since January 2023, as it gained appeal as a funding currency for carry trades. Recent yen strength has encouraged a shift toward alternatives such as the yuan, helped by China’s relatively low interest rates and currency stability.
- Gold struggled near $4,400 as higher oil prices strengthened expectations that major central banks could raise rates this month. The probability of a Fed hike next week is around 60%, while the ECB and BOJ are also expected to tighten.
- Silver traded near $66.6 an ounce on Wednesday following two sessions of decline, as elevated energy costs heightened inflation concerns and reinforced expectations for additional rate hikes.
- Bitcoin traded at $78,669, up 0.29% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency has gained 23.09% over the past month but is still down 30.98% year-on-year. Forecasts point to $80,762 by quarter-end and $90,339 within a year.
- Brent climbed above $99 a barrel, its highest level in nearly seven weeks and close to the $100 mark, after the US targeted several Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, a major oil export hub. The attacks raised concerns over possible disruptions to global oil supplies.
